So, our Boilers are favored by three touchdowns...Their opponent is 0-4...That same opponent is last in the nation in offense and last in scoring offense...They're also one of the worst rushing defenses and are allowing more than 33 points per game to be scored on them. So, is it fair to say it should be an easy win at home for Purdue.
Not at all. Why?
The Irish defense is fourth in the nation in pass defense...not a good thing for a pass-heavy offense. Sure, one might argue that the above stat only shows that their opponents don't have to pass due to the leads they build up. Regardless, stats are stats. Notre Dame's offense scored twice last week...a flurry of points for a team that hadn't generated any prior to last week's game. So, you could say they have some momentum. They also have a coach that at one time, was arguably the best game-planning offensive coordinator in the football world. There's plenty still to be bothered by.
Also note:
-Purdue has only played one opponent that's strong than UND according to the Sagarin Index (CMU- 113, UND-114).
-Purdue has a knack of losing to UND teams that aren't very good.
-Purdue lost to UND with a tight end playing quarterback.
-Joe Tiller has been known to go away from his team's strengths during certain contests.
-Notre Dame's last TWO recruiting classes have been top-10, nationally. Further, three years ago, their transitional class was still stronger than Purdue's (according to Rivals.com). So the talent is in the stable, despite what your eyes might have told you the previous 4 weeks.
-A Purdue win would put the Boilers in the national spotlight for the first time this season as they would be preparing for another undefeated opponent. So looking ahead is something that needs to be guarded against.
I strongly dislike Notre Dame, its head coach & its starting QB...but I am not for a minute about to believe this is an easy "W" for my alma mater. Hopefully, this week's practice has been as business-like as the Tuesday presser with the Boilers indicated. Purdue coaches and players alike wouldn't allow the press to bait them into any bulletin board material for the Irish.
More to come later...
12 comments:
It's getting very serious around here. He even eschewed the "Notre Dame no bowl wins since 1994" tag.
I think Purdue won't have a problem with Notre Dame - did you mean that Purdue is favored by three touchdowns - last time I saw it - Purdue was favored by 22 pts.
J- I'm not pressing my luck this week! Lane, you are correct about the spread...typo.
I hope you're right, but I grew up a Purdue fan...the closer I get to the game, the less I believe that it's going to not be a contest. That said, I hope it's never in doubt.
Greatest. Post. Ever. (on boiled sports).
Enough with Jimmy Clausen in speedos and Weis eating small children. This was honest analysis from a fan's perspective, which is why I'm a reader.
I personally think Purdue will win by 30+, but I think you guys share similar feelings as an IU fan. Every year it looks like we're gonna turn the corner in FB and finally contend with Purdue...and then bam, we get our asses handed to us.
Keep us this good work and don't read too much into Domer fans. They're "loyal" beyond belief because most of their Catholic parents, family, etc had no other team to root for growing up so they picked ND. Fine by me, who's to say who is a fan of whom?
To the ND fans who are reading this and aren't jumping ship, I applaud you guys. Keep the faith. Lord knows I've been keeping it (though after last week's loss to ILL...I truly considered). To all of the bandwagoners, you're getting what you deserve.
Basically, keep up the rational loyalty with more posts like these
MJS
MJS- As always, thanks for stopping by. One caviat- Although, I'm a non-denominational Christian now, I was raised Catholic, am Irish, my Grandfather played golf at UND...and I cannot stand the place!
I don't like things that aren't genuine, never have. I think NBC and other media outlets created a monster by telling us that UND players were all fine young student athletes who attended chapel everyday...I never have bought into that garbage. I have other reasons to dislike that place that I won't get into now, but I simply can't believe it's going to be as easy as Vegas thinks it will for my Boilers.
I think your Hoosiers are going to struggle this week v. an inconsistant, yet talented Iowa team...plus Kennick is a tough place to play.
MJS -- Believe it or not, despite our attempts at humor around here, a lot of our posts feature "honest analysis from a fan's perspective," most notably right before and after Purdue games.
Thanks for the compliment and thanks for reading, regardless of whether you agree with everything! Appreciate the debates....
Okay, why am I having nightmares of the 2000 game when Tiller decided that Purdue was a running team? Purdue should win - if Tiller doesn't screw it up!
Thanks guys, anytime. I'm mostly aloof to ND b/c IU is just so different. They're like apples and oranges.
As for the Hoosiers, they should move the ball b/c Hardy owned Iowa last year and that worked well. But in typical IU fashion, I get this nugget from the OC:
"But we're not going to get him the ball at the expense of not moving the football."
Matt Canada, OC, on getting James Hardy the ball.
James Hardy=moving the football....ah I'll just stop now. Good luck Sat.
http://blogs.indystar.com/hoosiersinsider/archives/2007/09/is_hardy_being.html
link isn't working, but it's from terry hutchen's indystar.com IU blog
96- you are right on with your flashback...scary stuff!
Iowa is perplexing to me- if their defense looks as it did v. Wisconsin, it'll be tough. If they look like the did earlier in the season, IU could win by two scores. Hardy's a handful for anybody...especially ex-girlfriends (oh no he di-int).
Well, I for one, am more worried about the defense getting bored and leaving the field for a quarter or two. I can hear it now: "Oh look, they are 114 in the country. I don't even need to wear a cup today."
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