The smart money seems to be on Colt McCoy for Heisman, but other guys have been invited to New York for the The problem is, everyone seems to be looking at the SEC and Big Twelve title games from last weekend as the resume for who should or shouldn't get it. I've heard a number of talking heads say that Colt McCoy hurt his case with that game. Okay, maybe, but they're still 13-0, no? And now Ndamukong Suh is a trendy pick for the award. Why, because he played well on Saturday? Come on. What a bunch of nonsense.
To slight guys who had phenomenal years just because their conference doesn't whore itself out to Dr. Pepper and add a superfluous conference championship game to the schedule (in December) is....well.... come to think of it, given how poorly the college football season ends, I guess it's right on track with how they do everything else.
We have no allegiances to any of the guys who will be smiling in New York for the presentation ceremony. But I have to say I think when you look at the numbers, it's hard to ignore Toby Gerhart. However, that's what everyone will likely do, in my opinion. In fact, I see Gerhart finishing no higher than fourth, most likely behind McCoy, Ingram and Tebow. Which is a shame, because Gerhart was a monster this year.
1,700 rushing yards
26 touchdowns
Nine (9) multi-touchdown games
TDs in 11 of 12 games
Three (3) 200-yard games
Kind of amazing.
22 comments:
Uh, what? Suh was a stud all year. If you're just going to look at Gerhart's stats (under 6 ypc, good for an amazing 33rd in the nation), why don't you take a look at Suh's, too?
I'd love to look at Suh's stats. But he was so incredible that ESPN.com doesn't even have a hyperlink for him on the Nebraska roster page and NU's site simply has a text breakdown of his game-by-game. Yes, lots of tackles for loss and yes, he's a monster, too. But when your offense is pedestrian at best, your defense is going to spend a lot of time on the field. Lots of tackles to be made.
Plus, defensive players for Heisman?
The Heisman is a joke because if your team doesn't win, it hurts you (this IS an individual award, right??). It's turned into A) Award for most high profile player on one of the nation's top teams, or B) Lifetime achievement award for someone who met criteria A for several seasons, but never managed to win it. I think scenario B is the likely scenario this year. Nevermind (as much as it pains me to say it), Pickles was probably the most deserving QB of a nomination but wasn't.
You don't think defensive players should get the Heisman? That sounds like something Lou Holtz would say (yeah, I just said that). The award goes to the "most outstanding player in college football." If defensive players win team awards all the time, why can't they win national awards with simialar criteria?
" But when your offense is pedestrian at best, your defense is going to spend a lot of time on the field. Lots of tackles to be made."
wtf that's a terrible argument. Suh isn't a candidate because he made a lot of tackles but because he has a ton of sacks, a ton of tackles for a loss and he even blocked three kicks this year. He was a dominating force from game 1 and will probably be selected in the top three of the 2010 draft. If you want to look at his stats, just go here: http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/playerDetail.jsp?yr=2009&org=463&player=93
Gerhart should win it though. Tebow had a pedestrian year; McCoy lead his team to 13-0 but was up and down statistically; Ingram played amazing on an undefeated team, but his team has more weapons than Stanford and his stats are dwarfed by Gerhart. But although he should win it, he won't. I'm betting the voters go with McCoy.
the award if awarded for the actual reason it was suppost to it would go to Suh. Usually it goes to offense so then you would go Gerhart but it wont. So it will go to the SEC which the media has a hard on for
Let's see ... Suh had 19.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 per game, which puts him 14th in the NCAA, behind such notable DL as Brandon Graham (1st with 2.17) and Ryan Kerrigan (tied for 11th with 1.54). Now, we know both Michigan and Purdue did not have impressive offenses, so yes, more opportunities = more tackles.
Except Suh doesn't have more tackles. 21.2% of his tackles were tackles for loss, compared to 20.5% for Graham and 16.4% for Kerrigan. (Also, if you double-click the Office logo in the upper-left corner of Excel 2007, Excel and all the open workbooks close. Fortunately I'd saved them all. I hope it would ask, but you never know.)
Suh has 12 sacks, .92 per game, 9th in the country. Graham has .88 (t-15th) and Kerrigan has 1.08 (4th, bitches). Kerrigan cost QBs 100 yards on his sacks, Graham 98, Suh 77.
Forced fumbles? Well, it's Kerrigan again, .58 per game tying him for first in the country (with Cody Grimm of VT). Suh and Graham both had fewer than 3, I guess.
Passes defended? Suh had .85 per game. Kerrigan and Graham did not make the list, but, you know, they're DL.
Yeah, maybe Suh was playing better offenses, but unfortunately I don't know a site that rates offensive strength of schedule. The ones I see that show overall strength of schedule, though, compare Purdue favorably to Nebraska.
So you know, after all that ... maybe the wrong DL is in New York this week. Because you can't convince me that the rest of Nebraska's defense is worse than the rest of Purdue's defense. Kerrigan is producing more in a few ways with less support.
Colt McCoy is by far the least deserving. Hell, he doesn't even play for the best team in Texas. The UT schedule is so weak...the MAC is better than the Little 12 north. If Dolt McCoy gets the award, I will quit watching college football. Until Hope and company return, of course.
zlionsfan -- that may be the best comment ever.
Thank you for making points/arguments better than I could have.
But Kerrigan isn't even all-Big Ten, as per Rittenberg.
Awesome.
The Kerrigan comments forget that Suh was double or triple teamed on every play this year. Teams designed their offensive gameplans around him and he still put up impressive numbers. Teams didn't do that around Kerrigan or any of the other players you mentioned.
If Suh had a teammate who was closes to his level (which would automatically give Nebraska the first and second best defensive linemen in the country), then teams wouldn't be able to target him and his numbers would be off the charts.
Focusing solely on statistics works for some sports, namely baseball and basektball. Statistics, especially defensive statstics, do not adequately reflect a player's performance.
Actually, focusing solely on statistics doesn't work in any sport. Even in baseball, it's very difficult to properly assign results to players, particularly on plays where no apparent result is assigned. (Example: a ground ball to right for a single. The scorer never marks whether or not the 2B should have fielded the ball; we can only assume in the context of his peers that he is fielding fewer ground balls than the average 2B.)
I didn't forget anything. I just thought it might be nice to point out that while Suh apparently had a solid year (I say "apparently" because I saw very little of him this season), there are other defensive players who had pretty good seasons too.
For the record, I support giving the Heisman to the best player in the country, even though it's obviously intended for the most recognizable offensive player at a successful school with a big reputation.
I just don't think there's a good way to determine who the best player really is. If most arguments boil down to some form of "well, you just have to see him", then you can make that case for any of 10 or 15 players, easily. If I like Gerhart and you like Suh, we can argue all day and not make any difference.
P.S. In NCAA 10, Suh was a 97, Graham a 94, and Kerrigan a 90. McCoy a 98, Gerhart an 88. I think that means Gerhart did more with less and thus is clearly deserving.
P.P.S. that was a joke. You can't determine Heisman winners from NCAA 10 ratings. That would be illogical.
Heisman is a joke. Did any other team in ALL of college football lead his team to 22 straight wins? How many other players have 2 National Championships and Heisman hardware? Say what you want about the hype and what not, but no player in college football can compare to the leadership, and play making ability of Tim Tebow. There has not been another college football player like him, ever. To hell with the stats...there is no other Timmy T. Period.
Tebow shouldn't even be in New York this year. While I agree he's a great leader and college football player, his production is actually worse this year than any other that he's been the starter.
You look back at his soph year (when he won it) and it's kind of nuts how good he was.
Zlionsfan - Advanced basketball stats (i.e., tempo-free stats) and baseball stats (like the ones on a number of websites) focus on things like where the ball was hit, if the 2B has decent range, the characteristics of a stadium, etc. These take care of many - but not all - of the variables in those sports.
In football, the nature of the sport and the emphasis on teams means that there aren't stats based like tackles per play, sacks per time in pocket, tackles per blockers, etc. That makes it much more difficult to quantify an individual performances.
Let me get this right- was the argument just made that Purdue had more defensive talent than Nebraska in '09? Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
Was Graham not double & triple teamed?
He was.
Kerrigan wasn't triple-teamed, but was double-teamed more than J his final year in Cary Quad...that's a lot.
Tebow was invited because he's who he is...not because of what he did this season. Following his concussion, he was a shell of himself for a few weeks and couldn't even run with power.
I'm hope the Colts get him...he'd be a great backup...to Dallas Clark.
boilerdowd - exactly.
von Nostrand - Trust me, I know about advanced stats. I have a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, I've got old Bill James abstracts, etc. etc.
I also know what they can't describe well. Even baseball struggles to quantify defense, in part for the same reason that football is difficult to quantify: it's difficult to measure a CF's defensive ability when you can't even be sure where he was supposed to be playing on a particular play. Did he miss the line drive because he was out of position or because the coach shifted the outfield too far?
Football is probably where baseball was 15-25 years ago: there are a number of sites that are beginning to work on analysis the same that we have for baseball and basketball (and to a lesser extent for hockey and soccer). The problem is that almost all of the focus is on NFL games because it's so much easier to gather things like consistent play-by-play information at the professional level. Surprisingly, that's not a given even today in I-A football.
Of course, there are other issues with that kind of analysis at the college level: the number of teams, games against I-AA teams, and so on. Those I think will clear up over time as we get more and better coverage of the non-BCS conferences, hopefully to the point that someday the NCAA will have detailed play-by-play information for all I-A teams the same as NFL.com has for NFL teams.
All that doesn't mean we can't use stats, it just means we should always consider their context. I wasn't being entirely serious when I mentioned Kerrigan and Suh in the same sentence, but I think at some point, the statistics that we have should carry some weight, and the fact that Kerrigan didn't make the all-conference team despite posting those numbers on an underwhelming defense ... well, I'd say it amazes me, but then anything that can be voted on is worth questioning these days. (How much time do those people spend actually watching games? Hell, how many Heisman voters have watched Suh or Gerhart or even Tebow this year?)
Also, I beat Nebraska in Lincoln with Louisiana-Lafayette in my NCAA 10 dynasty, 24-10. Suh didn't record any tackles, though. Maybe he was injured - that would be a case for his Bednarik candidacy, at least ...
Gerhart for Heisman!
(i changed my google name, btw, the other one was, like, way old)
McCoy does not have a prayer. Not sure what you consider smart money. It will be Gerhart and Ingram 1/2. Hopefully Gerhart gets it.
I guess I got confused somewhere along the way. If you were to ask me if I would take a QB with 32 TD and 4 losses in 1 season or a span of 25 wins and 2 losses I would take winning record over number production every day of the week. I think Tebow losing 2 games in his last 25 shows that he is not only IMPROVED from his Sophomore season....it proves he's the best player in all the land. No one had a bigger impact in every game (arguably possibly Gerhart)...but you didn't see the leadership from TG as you did from TT.
From heisman.com:
The Heisman Memorial Trophy annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity. Winners epitomize great ability combined with diligence, perseverance, and hard work. The Heisman Trophy Trust ensures the continuation and integrity of this award. The Trust, furthermore, has a charitable mission to support amateur athletics and to provide greater opportunities to the youth of our country. Our goal through these charitable endeavors is for the Heisman Trophy to symbolize the fostering of a sense of community responsibility and service to our youth, especially those disadvantaged or afflicted. All assets of the Trust beyond the expense of maintaining the annual presentation of the Heisman Memorial Trophy are reserved for such charitable causes. The Trustees, who all serve pro bono, are guided by a devotion to college football and are committed to community service and the valued tradition which the Trophy represents.
And Reggie Bush won? Kinda makes it all irrelevant from that standpoint- EOCE organization...equal opportunity cheater employer....er, eh, celebrator? Either way, it's still a joke.
I agree Tebow's a good leader and a classic college football player, but his numbers took a dip this year and a seasonal award does not (or should not) take into account what he did over two seasons.
As for Eric... well, I'll bet you a shiny nickel and a pair of Boilerdowd's boxers that McCoy wins it.
1) Mark Ingram
2) Colt McCoy
3) Gerhart
4) Suh
That's the way it's going to roll out. Everybody wants to talk about Colt and his performance against Nebraska. Let us rewind to the previous week when Mark Ingram had an outstanding 30 yards on the ground against Auburn. Less than impressive, and by half time it appeared that his tail was so far between his legs my dog would want to hump him. Gerhart had a massive season, but lets look at the conference. It's not enough to put him in the top two. Suh, is a Monster on the grid iron and had a blow out year, but come to grips, the position he plays is going to cripple his chances against his Heisman competition. I wish I could post a picture on this website of Tim Tebow crying after the SEC beat down. There's no crying in football Tebow, especially after all the "hype" you bring to college football.
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