It won't be a walk on the beach the rest of the way for any of the Big Ten teams. (See what I did there?)
It feels like every time Purdue plays, I make a comment to the wife about how "this is a big game," to the point where I feel kind of silly saying it now. Yeah, it's a big game tonight -- huge, you might say. But strangely, I feel this is one of the few that it might be okay to lose from here on out.
Yes, to guarantee being tops in the Big Ten, our Boilers need to win out, but that's a VERY tall order. And winning in East Lansing is never easy. But here's the rest of the way:
@ MSU, tonight.
versus Iowa on Saturday
@ OSU on 2/17
versus Illinois, 2/20
@ Minny, 2/24
versus MSU, 2/27
versus IU, 3/3
@ defending national champion PSU, 3/6
So just for kicks, let's play the win-loss game. Being realistic yet optimistic (if you follow me), let's say a loss tonight, maybe a loss @ OSU (though Boilerdowd thinks Purdue will get revenge there) and wins in the other six games. That's a 6-2 finish for a 13-5 conference mark. To match MSU, they'd need to lose at least two more games besides the one win I'm chalking up for Purdue against them (and yes, for the moment, ignoring all those other teams clustered at 8-3 right now). Can that happen? Sure. Is it likely? Probably not. They have the following left after tonight's game: @PSU, @IU, vs OSU, @Purdue, vs PSU and vs Michigan.
Where do two more losses come from in there? Having PSU twice in your last six games is a nice little cushion. Sure, they'll be "upset-minded," but MSU will be "we're talented"-minded, and will dutifully wax the floor with the Nittany Kittens. I'd say the best shots are OSU and Michigan, though both of those are in East Lansing.
So, to sum this meandering analysis up, it looks like Purdue does either need to win out or, at the very worst, lose only one more game if they want to be the regular season champ. (And for those of you who think that means less because of the Big Ten tourney, don't forget these teams still all want to be regular season champs and, even if the conf tourney is your focus, you get the top seed.)
Remaining miscellaneous thoughts before tonight's game...
I love that Purdue and MSU are playing twice in an 18-day stretch in February, when everything is meaningful and building and everyone is battling.
I also love that they're our "rivalry week" matchup. It's hard to hate Izzo...and maybe that's a good thing. I kind of like having a rival who I respect and appreciate.
I won't feel bad for one second is Kalin Lucas is out, or that it minimizes the win if Purdue pulls it off. Nobody felt bad for the Boilers when Kramer's nose was broken, Hummel's back was broken and several guys had the flu last season... and nor should they have. Wins count, no matter what.
Purdue's last win in Breslin was in 1998 and was by a score of 99-96. But remember, everyone: the Big Ten is slow and plodding and boring!
I'm ready. Are you?
14 comments:
Really? 1998? That seems off to me, but I'm too lazy to look it up and check.
I think Purdue can finish up confrence play with only two more losses, or less. I think they are refocused now.
I would not have put money on the Illini beating MSU last week, so you never know when a loss is going to sneak up. I'm sure there weren't too many of us Boiled Sports faithful readers that thought Purdue would fall to Northwestern this year. As BoilerDowd says, the B10 is a meat grinder.
Actually, what boilerdowd always says is, "Will anyone grind my meat, please?"
1998 is correct, unfortunately.
Whoever wins this league is definitely doing it with no more than 4 wins. Take a gander at Wisconsin's remaining schedule, I will eat my cat if they lose more than one.
4 losses, rather. D'oh.
I'm waiting for after tonight's game to write a shakedown of the Big Ten race with all of the contenders. I have to agree with you though, in that the only real contender who has a tougher road than us will be the Illini. They have 2 with Wisconsin, 2 with OSU, and @Purdue left this yaer. Their other games are Minny (could go either way, but I'll give it to them) and @Mich. That is just a brutal schedule.
Yaer being the Swahili word for "year."
John -- agree, Illinois is cooked, based on that schedule.
Also just realized (because I'm very VERY slow) that you're an official contributor at H&R and have been for a couple weeks.
Well done. Now please force Travis to stop being so nice to everyone. It makes us look meaner than we even are. And make no mistake, we're jerks.
I'll just start posting a bunch of ridiculous trash talk. My next post will be "John Wall Who?" or perhaps, "Big East Players I Would Totally Beat 1 on 1." Follow that up with "ACC Moms That Should Stop Texting Me" and people will forget all about Travis' well written analysis. Then, I'll slowly ride off into the sunset and become the most rational writer that Her Loyal Sons has ever had.
The good folks at H & R need not apologize for anything that's been said/written during the last week.
Opinions are opinions...no Northeaster jackholes should be able to strongarm TMill into apologizing for having an opinion contrary to theirs...even if it's off base. It's an opinion. He didn't make fun of anyone's mother.
I see one of the Purdue games being a loss for MSU and either the aOSU or UM game also being a loss.
I've said this to those around me- I think Purdue's going to win the regular season title and lose in the BT tourney...tonight would go a very long way in making me look like a jeenyus.
...while grinding your meat.
Way to get the job done Boilers! They (E'twaun) showed extreme poise when Sparty made their run. Now to keep the momentum against Iowa.
Yeah! Take that crystal ball predicting a loss and transmogrify it into crystal meth - I'm higgghhhh on the Boiler beatdown tonght. We were patient and (for the most part) smart tonight. Fsckin' awesome interior passes in the first half - did anyone else jizz their pants when Ostrich passed on da 3 and hit JJ for a 2? That's textbook. That's how you break down a defense. Our defense was patient and solid in the first half, and they solidified in the final 5 minutes. Awesome performance!!!
H&R is all good, BTW. Keep up the good work, maybe I'll start reading more often.
For just a bit in the second half, I had that oh-so-familiar feeling of doom ... I was all ready to post a bitter comment on various social websites when BAM! the game was suddenly, emphatically, perhaps surprisingly not blown.
There are still two very tough challenges left (vs. MSU, at OSU), and as we have seen, no game can be taken for granted in the Big Ten, but it's much nicer to be sitting half a game out with home games remaining against the teams in front than to be one and a half back with the Ohio State game looming as a possible elimination game.
J, Boiler transplant now continuing studies in Tennessee here...and I, too, played a little W-L game for the Boilers (and the other four huddled squads, too).
Thought you bunch might like it.
http://tinyurl.com/ykezzxz
First trip to BS, but doesn't look like it'll be the last.
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