The biggest thing that everyone from the BTN to EsPN seems to be ignoring is that regardless of what happened today at the Breslin Center, Purdue controlled, and still controls, its own destiny.
Before today, if Matty's boys were to win out, Purdue would be the BT Champ, by itself. That's still the case- a win by MSU or aOSU did not change that.
But, there's confusion about the BT regular season title...So here goes.
Tonight's standings are as follows:
Purdue 11-3
OSU 11-4
MSU 11-4
Wisconsin 10-5
Illinois 9-5
So this evening, Purdue has a sole lead of the conference race. Great. But, this time next week, it might not look like as great.
But let's pretend for a moment that Purdue loses to Minnesota on Wednesday night...which is a real possibility as Goldy is playing well at home and fighting for their post-season life.
Come next Saturday, the standings will be:
OSU 12-4
MSU 11-4
Purdue 11-4
If Purdue beats MSU (Sat. or Sun.) and wins out while aOSU wins out, they'll tie with aOSU for the title. The head-to-head tiebreaker would be another tie. The second tie-breaker would be the team's record versus the next team, or group of teams in the standings. At that point, MSU & Wisconsin would most-likely be tied behind Purdue/aOSU with 5 losses. Purdue would win that tiebreaker for seeding in the tournament as they'd have a composite record v. Wisky/MSU 3-1, aOSU would be 2-1. But, aOSU and Purdue would tie for the regular season BT championship.
But, had aOSU lost today, and Purdue loses to Minny on Wednesday, the race would look like this next Saturday:
MSU 12-3
Purdue 11-4
OSU 10-5
Wisc. 10-5
Ill 10-5
If Purdue wins out from that point, including the game v. MSU, they would tie MSU for the BT championship. Purdue would have the head-to-head tiebreaker versus Sparty and would have the #1 seed for the tournament...plus, we as fans would have bragging rights...and we wouldn't have to hear Ohio State fans chirping about being equal to Purdue.
Purdue 14-4
MSU 14-4
OSU 13-5
Wisc 13-5
Let's be really clear though- A ton can and will happen between now and the end of the season.
I think Purdue will beat MSU...But Izzo, with 6 days to prepare for Matty, will have the Spartans ready and motivated...especially following today's loss...yet another reason I really didn't want to see MSU lose today.
Just win and this complicated group of circumstances all become quite simple.
Oh, one more thing- Thanks to Pitt for pushing Purdue into the top-3. Can anyone ever remember Purdue ranked that high? I cannot.
21 comments:
Ok...I really have no words for this post. So you're basically saying that, IF Purdue loses to Minny, you would rather Purdue tie with MSU than OSU?
There are so many moving parts to this that it really doesn't matter. In the case where we lose to Minnesota, yeah, MSU winning would have been better. But if we beat Minnesota and lose to MSU, MSU winning would have been much worse. I just didn't root for anybody and tried to enjoy it not mattering.
Also, Nova had already lost to UCONN earlier in the week, so we were going to be #3 anyways.
If MSU would have won, our chances to win outright increase slightly. Our chances to drop to second place increase dramatically. Our chances to tie for the championship decrease.
Since OSU won, our chances to win outright decrease. Our chances to drop to second place decrease dramatically. Our chances to tie for the title increase.
So now we can lose to MSU and still tie for the title. If MSU would have won and beat us, they would have won outright.
Since beating MSU, Purdue has always controlled its destiny to win outright. By losing today, MSU no longer controls theirs.
Lots of if/thens in there, no doubt.
And yes, I don't want Ohio State to have any share of the BT title.
J thinks aOSU loses at least one before the season's over, I don't see it happening.
I can't see EVU losing outside the Big Ten tournament either, not unless Matta really goes crazy and tries to play four guys the whole game, and even then they'd probably still beat Penn State and Iowa.
I thought I remembered Purdue being ranked higher in 1988, the year of the embarrassment in the Silverdome, and they were, #2.
In 1986-87, our Boilers were quite the pick (ah, my sophomore year) ... coming off the great screw-job that the NCAA put on the Old Gold and Black, Purdue started the season at #4, moved up to #3 in two weeks (after #1 North Carolina was upset), and then for three glorious weeks was at #2, their highest position ever, thanks in part to #2 Indiana losing and falling to 8th. (Of course the tournament was a different story.) Purdue was never out of the top 10 and never lower than 7th.
What happened that year? Oh, that's right, we were beaten by cheaters from Florida who later had their appearance vacated.
So the following season, with that version of the Big Three returning (Stephens, Mitchell, and Lewis), Purdue started off #2, behind only Syracuse, and promptly dropped to 11th the next week. By the end of January, they were back to #2, and after another fall (to #6), the next week back to #2, where they stayed behind #1 Temple (Temple?) fo five weeks, slipping to #3 in the final poll. (Arizona switched places with the Boilers.) Then F-ing Kansas State and Steve Henson and all that.
Purdue was also #3 in the final poll in 1994.
So yes, they've been higher, but precious few times, and never at that top spot. (Hat tip to the NCAA for these fine records: I highly recommend their records section. Get your free PDF before the tournament gets here, and yes, the Final Four book is available as well.)
Hey, come on, you guys know I love stats ...
I meant ETU. Turner starts with T. Now it looks like I went to OSU.
While your math seems good, I gotta say I was cheering for OSU because now we have to lose twice to not win the Big Ten. Had MSU won, it would all come down to one game. Of course I'd like it outright, but a year or two from now we're not going to care one way or the other.
Uh huh, during the Big Dog era, during the Mitchell/Stephens/Lewis era !? C'mon .....
Can't you guys lighten up for ONE MINUTE with all the ridiculous prognostications and ENJOY the journey and process. We're in 1st place NOW!! We fought for it for two months and it's here and you want to whine about OSU actually putting us into first!?!? We SHOULD win out anyway, so let that be the carrot. Minny @ Minny , seriously!? If we don't beat them with JJ needing a redemption game, then we truly aren't a #1 seed....
Was anybody actually able to watch the OSU/MSU game? I hardly could, the commentating on CBS was terrible. I think it was Rafferty and some other clown, but they just sounded terrible. I mean the would extremely excited for mid-range jumper and start screaming into the mic, "And Roe with jumper!" in the most raspy voice. It seriously made me miss Lavin and him talking about "honker boxes." Come on CBS
We are a much better team than Minnesota so their is NO excuse to have a let down and lose at The Barn. I'm sure it will be a battle, but who's more battle tested? We are. This is, afterall, the same Minnesota team that lost to IU, Portland, Miami, Northwestern, Texas A&M and Michigan. Our core group of guys have been together for a long time now... the Big Ten title is within sight... I'll be really disappointed if they allow somebody to take the title from them. I think the Boilers finish 15-3 (27-3 overall) heading into the BT Tourney and we all stop doubting this special team. This IS our year. Believe it.
Here's a fun website.
http://www.appollarchive.com
You guys were #3 in the final poll in 1994 and spent several weeks ranked #2 in 1988 and 1990. I was thinking you guys had been ranked #1 at some point, but I must have been thinking of football.
You are too young to remember but they were ranked #2 for parts of the 1987-88 season.
John, I think Purdue was #1 in the pre-season in football back in '67, pre-season.
It's funny, I was at Purdue for the '94 team and had my heart ripped out by the KSU loss, and I don't remember their ranking being that high at the end...perhaps it's because all I remember is the sour taste from the losses.
I don't think this team will get higher than 3...nor do I think they really deserve it as Kansas and Kentucky have been the cream of the basketball world all season.
So, Bink. We shouldn't discuss old basketball, or think about things waaaay far out, like Wednesday. What other rules to you have for the site?
I still think Purdue will win the title, and like most of you think Purdue should absolutely beat Minny. But, if that game doesn't give you pause, you probably haven't watched the Gophers play their last few games. They're playing their best ball of the season...but so are our Boilers.
I'll give Minny credit for taking down a good Wisconsin team, but I wouldn't read too much into them blowing out an Indiana team that has quit.
I know...and Wisconsin is a rivalry game, but playing a top-5 team gets the fans and players hyped.
But, this will surely be a different team that Minny puts on the floor as different players are getting more PT, Sampson is healthy and Tubby is a very good coach and preparer.
I'm with you Dowd. I was also rooting for MSU. I would rather have OSU removed from the picture and sweep MSU leaving no doubt.
Z-Lions -- great stuff.
Orracle -- No, we're not that young...sadly.
John -- yes, yes, you must have been thinking about our #1 football rankings. Uhhh, what?
My counterpoint to b-dowd was that I fear Izzo more than Matta and thus want to be up a game even given the fair points he makes about winding up tied with OSU. His scenario for why he wanted OSU to lose counts on too many variables I do not feel we can count on, primarily:
-OSU not losing again
-Purdue for sure beating MSU
I agree with the general consensus that you want to be up a game no matter what. I have faith OSU will trip again and then Purdue simply needs to lose no more than one more, provided it's not against MSU.
Also, I think they have no business losing to Minny. This team is different and will be focused.
That ap poll archive site is pretty cool. Did you know Purdue football had more weeks at #1 in the 1960s than Oklahoma and Nebraska combined? Purdue - 5, Oklahoma - 2, Nebraska - 1. Cool. For being 40/50 years ago that is. Maybe we can hang the relevancy of our football program on that! Hang a banner or something. I don't know.
It's funny, I was at Purdue for the '94 team and had my heart ripped out by the KSU loss
You're confusing years. You probably meant 1988, when the Three Amigos went up 10-0 to start the game and then lost to Kansas State 73-70, when they couldn't inbound the ball at the end (sounds like a familiar problem doesn't it?)
That was against Mitch Richmond. I think the SEC got three teams in the Final Four that year.
A lot of Boiler fans returned from Detroit mighty disappointed. As a senior that year I'd already had my heart broken by previous close Tourney losses.
Hopefully this year will be different.
Daniel --
He was saying that he felt BOTH the '94 team's heartache AND the loss to KSU. I don't believe my compatriot was saying KSU happened in '94.
It is I, your humble translator.
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