Click to largenize
This is one of the most wide-open BTTs since its inception a dozen years ago. I'd say the only teams with zero shot to win it are IU, Iowa and Michigan. I know Michigan has the horses if they all play well, but they've underachieved the whole season and I don't seem them turning it on now.
While I think Purdue could absolutely win this thing, I just have this feeling they won't. They've had their shaky moments since Rob went down, as well as some very strong moments. So yes, it could totally go either way... I'm just thinking their focus is still on figuring things out without Rob and advancing in the big tourney.
I also think Wisconsin is the smart pick for this tourney. Not because I don't think the Boilers can beat them, because I do. Purdue honestly should be 2-0 against Wisky this year (as usual), but poor FT shooting doomed the Boilers in Madison. I just think Wisconsin is well-coached, talented and kind of under the radar. As T notes in his post, they're the only team to beat all three co-champs. Pretty impressive. (And pretty frustrating, I would think. Beating all three co-champs and finishing as a bridesmaid?)
Boilerdowd's argument with me was that he thinks MSU's fatness (and we know all about fatness) and the fact that they're playing for seeding will mean the Spartans take the BTT seriously -- something they and Coach Izzo don't always seem to do. T-Mill thinks that MSU will lose to PSU, so I guess we'll know right there how seriously MSU is taking this thing and which Purdue site knows how to gauge the BTT.
Truth is, if this thing plays out the way we outline above and Purdue and Wisky meet in the finals, I like Purdue's chances. But picking them to win it when the entire nation seems to think Purdue should simply fold the rest of the season and come back next year would look like being a homer.
Readers, who's winning this thing?
9 comments:
First, losing to NU cost us the outright Big Ten title... if we get NU in the first game, it's revenge time and our D will suffocate them. Regarding MSU, it's just not easy to beat a good team two times in a row... I'd like our chances there. Against Wisconsin, I like our chances in a slugfest and would lean towards Purdue. Yes, we are down a good man, but we are a veteran team... a hungry team, we have great guards and we play D. Purdue wins the Big Ten Tournament and we hang two banners in Mackey next November.
MSU will win it. I think they beat us in our second game.
You all know my picks from Twitter, but I was very close to this exact bracket until I convinced myself that the Illini would step up and be hungry. As I have it, I have Purdue over Illinois in the title game.
I have a feeling OSU is coming out way flat after such a long time off, struggling to beat Michigan then being gassed for their Saturday matchup.
Whoops, I have Minnesota over PSU, but that is of no consequence to the rest my bracket.
Since when do we care what the rest of the nation thinks of us?
Be a homer!
Thursday: Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota.
Iowa is terrible or they would win that game, Michigan is basically done for the season, which sucks because that gives OSU a bye into the semis. IU is playing "at home" like Purdue is, and they just got done beating Northwestern at home. If this game is anywhere close in the last few minutes, Northwestern will blow it. Penn State sucks. I'm tired of hearing people explain how they're not really an 11 seed in the conference.
Friday: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State.
OSU without question, sadly. Wisconsin-Illinois should be good unless McCamey is having mental issues. Purdue must win. MSU ought to handle Minnesota, although the Allen suspension makes me wonder what's going on there ... if the Spartans are having trouble focusing, they could fall.
Saturday: Ohio State, Michigan State
Let's call this "Reverse Jinx Day". Evan Turner does seem to be playing well and I'm not sure the Badgers can pull off a win like this outside Madison. I would love to believe that the loss in Mackey was just the aftermath of Robbie's injury and not caused by defense taking away the big guns and forcing other people to play well ...
Sunday: Ohio State
This is "Double Dog Reverse Jinx Day". Of course if it comes down to coaching, it's going to be Michigan State in a runaway, but I don't know that the Spartans really care that much about this tournament. They're just waiting for the 18th or 19th. Evan Turner, meanwhile, is looking to fill out his resume. At this point in the season, his NBA draft stock is looking better and better. (Please declare early. Like right now.)
It is possible for Purdue to win, but a trap game followed by two games against tough defensive teams ... they can do it, and I will be there rooting them on, but I will not be surprised if they lose Saturday or Sunday.
I think MSU beats OSU in the championship. I think OSU is playing the best right now, but they'll run out of gas with no bench and 3 games in 3 days.
Purdue won't spank NW in the first game, though I do think we'll win. We've never matched up well against those smarty-pants, and we're not a program designed to purely out-talent an opponent.
I'll also go out on a limb and predict that Illinois saves their big dance invite by beating Sconnie in the 4/5 game.
Best Scenario for the Big Ten (and Purdue Fans)
Wouldn't you think that the best results for the BTT would be for ILL to advance to the championship game (almost securing their bid to the tournament) and Minny advancing to at least Saturday's game against hopefully Purdue? This would boost their resume and maybe slide them in as an 11 or 12 seed in the tournament in my opinion.
The Big Ten would then get six teams in the field of 65 and more money would flow into the most competitive conference. I just think everyone would be very happen with those results (especially if Purdue got to beat Indiana and ILL three times in one year).
A counterargument would be 1) 1/11th of NCAA tournament money from one bubble team really isn't that much, and 2) moving bubble teams up potentially hurts better teams, possibly dropping them into more difficult games and maybe even costing them a round or two.
Personally, I'll be rooting for Illinois (ever since 2000 I've hated Wisconsin) and Minnesota (because they're weaker and I don't really care how Purdue wins the tournament just as long as they do).
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