October is Different, Part IV: World Series Edition

Colorado Rockies versus Boston Red Sox

I was going to post a nice picture above of Denver and then a crappy picture of Boston but I'm much bigger than that. Just because I hate the Sox doesn't mean I can't be a good guy and evaluate them fairly. Okay, maybe it might seem that way, but the truth is, I picked them to win their first round series and then I picked them to lose in 7 to Cleveland and, had Cleveland not lost a 3-1 lead, I would have looked pretty bright. As it stands, though, I look about as dumb as usual. So let's just get to my breakdown of the World Series.

For starters, I'm just happy there's going to be a game tonight, so we can stop seeing Rockies players being asked what the 8-day layoff is going to mean. They don't know, guys. They've never even been to the World Series, so how can they tell you? Of course they're going to say they enjoy the time off and resting up and OF COURSE we all know they'd rather get right into it. Might they be "rusty"? I guess it's possible, but if Todd Helton sees a Josh Beckett fastball really well and puts it into the seats in the first inning, does all that "rust" talk simply vanish? Probably. And if Beckett shuts them down, like he's done to the Angels and Indians, will people comment on Colorado's rust? Of course they will. It's kind of dumb. But it's hard to think a week off is helpful when you've played baseball pretty much every day since March.

Why The Rockies Might Win: Basically, because they've looked unstoppable for the past month. And with this 8-day layoff, they've now lost one game in the last 38 days. How ridiculous is that? 22-1 in their last 23 games. Supreme confidence. Outstanding hitting. They have the comeback kids kind of mentality that has helped the Red Sox in '04 and '07; that is, simply believing you're going to come back and win no matter what happens. The Rox were down two runs in extra innings of their one-game playoff against San Diego and they came back and won. They were 7+ games out in mid-September and they got in. They haven't lost a game in the postseason yet. (Even those vaunted, always-talked-about Yankees teams from the late-90s didn't sweep their way through the playoffs, so consider that.) The Rockies pitching has been excellent and their bullpen has been lights-out.

Why The Rockies Might Lose: Well, they're the Rockies. Can you imagine the Rockies being the World Series champs? And just like the Phillies that they ousted in the first round, could the Rockies eventually run out of gas? I mean, consider all they've had to do to get here and how much winning baseball they've had to play the past month. They've been in do-or-die playoff mode since about September 15. Teams that have to overcome such deficits often peter out just a bit too early. But hey, you could have made that argument about the Red Sox comeback in '04 over the Yankees and it didn't turn out to hurt them. They just kept plowing along. And so might the Rockies. Another reason they might lose is because they haven't faced a team like the Red Sox yet. The Rockies beat the overrated Phillies (a second-place team only in the playoffs because of an historic collapse by the Mets) and then the overrated Diamondbacks (a team that got outscored on the season and happened to buck statistical trends and eek out 90+ victories). The Red Sox are far, far better than either of those opponents.

Why The Red Sox Might Win: As I just said, on paper they're a better team than the Rockies. Colorado was a fourth-place team for much of the season, trailing the D-Backs, Padres and Dodgers almost all year. Read that again. The Rox were worse than the D-Backs, Padres and Dodgers all year long... until the last two weeks of September. So no matter how hot they are, if you look at things equally, they're not as good as the first-place-all-year Sox. The Sox have the best starter in the series, and among the best in baseball, in Josh Beckett. They have Bloody Sock Schilling, who is good for at least one "heroic" performance each series. And then they have a pretty good stable of pitchers in the bullpen, leading up to Riverdancer Jonathan Papelbon. The Sox also have David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, who both hit over .400 in the ALCS. These guys are fantastic hitters, plain and simple. They're not the concern for Colorado. I think the Rockies will pitch around these guys if they have to, so the question becomes can JD Drew, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Lowell, Jason Varitek, et al, come to play and cash in when they get up there with guys on base.

Why The Red Sox Might Lose: This team has been awfully streaky this season. They came flying out of the gate for two months and then played mediocre baseball for about three months, almost letting the Yankees catch them. Then they played well again right into the playoffs and then, against the Indians, looked awful in falling behind 3-1. Then they seemingly turned it on again and plowed through the Indians. If this team doesn't come out focused against a Rockies team that is sweeping teams out of the playoffs, it could be another 3-1 deficit before they know it. Sure, they've shown they can come back from that, but you see where I'm going with this. In addition, if Schilling or Matsuzaka aren't in top form in Games 2 and 3 (with Matsuzaka tentatively pitching in Coors -- wheee!) the Rockies could get themselves a series lead and even more confidence. Oh, and if Eric Gagne has to pitch, the Sox might as well say goodnight. Man, has he been awful.

Factor Being Talked About That Might Mean Something or Might Mean Nothing: The Rockies came to Fenway in mid-June and took two of three from the Sox, even beating Josh Beckett, who only lost seven games all season. While one might think this could get into Beckett's head, I think it's more likely that he's aware of what he did wrong in that game and is even more focused to take them down. After all, that was a mid-June series when the Sox had a huge division lead and this is the World Series. Hard to compare. But it's good for the Rockies that they know they can win in that challenging venue.

Other Miscellaneous Things I'm Watching For:

Will Manny pose and strut after any home runs? If so, will the Rockies finally be the team willing to knock him down for it? I doubt it, but it's fun to think about.

Will we see significant snow for the first time in a World Series? Quite possible, since it was really snowy in Denver over the weekend. It's not looking to be too bad in the upcoming days but it came show up quickly there. Wouldn't MLB look stupid then if the World Series is postponed by snow. Of course, maybe they never expected the Rockies to ever make a World Series.

Will Eric Gagne be allowed to share in the postgame celebration if the Sox win the World Series?

How many times will we be reminded of the Rockies playing for Mike Coolbaugh? It's definitely awesome that they voted Coolbaugh a playoff share so his family gets it, but I have a feeling we might get hit over the head with it by Fox.

Speaking of Fox, how many crappy sitcom actors will they plant in the stands in Denver or Boston?

How many times will Tim McCarver screw up Troy Tulowitzki's name?

Prognostication: Well, it's about that time. I've gotten the winner right in four of the six series played so far this postseason so I'm doing okay. This is a tough series, as most are, because you just don't know how the teams are going to react. Would anyone have thought the Tigers would look so lifeless and sloppy against the weak Cardinals last season? I mean, isn't it possible to imagine the Rockies continuing their unconscious streak of masterful baseball and getting through the Red Sox to complete their magical season? (Well, okay, magical month.) Sure it is. And isn't it just as easy to imagine the Red Sox simply shutting down the storybook Rockies, simply because they have a more complete, dominant team?

The Rockies have some terrific hitters in Tulowitzki, Helton, Hawpe and Atkins. The Sox have an equally impressive group that includes Ortiz, Manny, Lowell (who led the team in RBIs, betcha didn't know that) and Drew. The Rockies pitching, while outstanding in the playoffs, is not quite the caliber at the top that the Red Sox is. Beyond the top pitchers, though, I think the Rox are a lot closer to the Sox level.

All that said, and as much as I detest the Red Sox, I don't think I can bring myself to actually predict a Rockies win. I'd love to see it happen -- and not just because I don't like Boston. I think the fans of Colorado have seen a mediocre-to-terrible baseball product for most of the time the Rockies have existed. Now, they're finally doing things right and they've gone on an impressive run and seem to have the parts in place to at least remain competitve in the NL West. So I think it'd be great to see a city like Denver, which has won in in the past in hockey and football, get to see a championship-winning baseball team. But I just don't think it's going to happen.

Red Sox in 6.

That Was Frigging Awesome

Sometimes I try to explain to non-baseball-loving people why I love baseball so much. Yes, I understand the complaints about it -- slow-moving at times, long games, interminably long season... steroid users, etc. But there is also a far longer list of things to love about baseball. Rather than go into that list now, I'll just point to last night's one-game playoff between the Padres and Rockies in Denver as just the latest exhibit for why baseball is so fricking awesome.

The two teams finished the season tied with 89-73 records and thus had to play a one-game playoff to decide who gets the Wild Card in the National League. After 162 games, six months and about 3,000 combined innings of baseball this season, these two squads now had one game to decide if they get to go to the magical land of the playoffs or if they simply go home and sit for five months. It's only the seventh one-game decider.....ever.

The Rockies were almost eliminated in mid-September, but then went on an absolute tear, winning 13 of 14 to close the season and force this playoff game. The Padres were an out away from locking up the Wild Card on Saturday night when their closer Trevor Hoffman, the only man with more than 500 saves in baseball history, blew the game against the Brewers. The Pads lost, the Rocks won and to a one-game playoff we went.

I have to admit I was completely rooting for the Rockies, a team that has been terrible for most of its existence and simply couldn't shed this label of a sham of a team that only had marginal success because its home games were played at high altitude and thus home runs flew out of the park like at softball games. Concurrent with this was that pitchers hated playing in Coors Field because, hey, who wants to try to negotiate a future contract when you have a 6.50 ERA?

Anyway, the Rockies, hot as they've been, came storming out of the gate and went up 3-0 early. I was pleased with this. But the Padres aren't a dislikable team (now that Milton Bradley's gone for the season) and so when Adrian Gonzalez came up with the bases loaded and his team down 3-0, I took notice. Gonzalez was on my fantasy baseball team and I had noticed he finished the season on Sunday with 29 homers and 96 RBIs. Since this one-game playoff actually counts towards regular season stats -- another cool quirk of baseball -- Gonzalez had a big opportunity here in several ways. And he cashed in, crushing as Josh Fogg pitch for a grand slam. Suddenly it was 4-3, San Diego and Gonzalez now had hit the 30-homer and 100-RBI plateau. Not a bad season in that at-bat.

The Rocks were not deterred though, and this is what a team looks like that has won 13 of 14, including an 11-game winning steak. They simply believe they're going to win no matter what befalls them. Giving up a grand slam to blow a 3-0 lead in a one-game playoff might completely finish a lot of teams, but to the Rockies credit it didn't even slow them down.

They fought back, taking an eventual 6-5 lead into the 8th inning, when the Padres rallied again. Matt Holliday, who has had a great year and may win the NL MVP, misplayed a ball in left field and let it go over his head... an unfathomable play in such a big game. And suddenly it's 6-6. And the game moves along and nobody scores... and we go into extra innings of the final game of the season... the only game being played on this night. All of baseball is watching this game.

In the top of the 13th, the Padres appeared to put it away when Scott Hairston (Scott Hairston?) hit a two-run bomb to put the Padres up 8-6. The Pads dugout was going bananas. They still had Trevor Hoffman, perhaps the best closer ever, waiting to close out the game. Excellent game management by manager Bud Black. Save your closer in case you get the lead since it's a road game.

Hoffman comes in and Troy Tulowitzki, who should be the Rookie of the Year, hammers a 3-2 pitch into the gap to drive in Kaz Matsui and make it 8-7. The crowd was just thunderous at this point and I cannot imagine being there for such a wild game. Matt Holliday then comes up and hits that drive to the right field wall where Brian Giles, who was just laying it on the line, goes crashing into the odd, hard-to-play right field wall at Coors Field, just missing the ball... it rattles away and Holliday gets to third with a triple. Now the Rocks have the winning run on third with no outs so it doesn't look good for San Diego. I would think the move here would have been to walk the bases loaded and then throw low pitches to try to induce a groundout where you can get the force at the plate. But Cory Sullivan, who hit .290 with 2 home runs and 14 RBIs this season, rocketed a liner to right field that Giles caught and then fired home... Holliday, despite there only now being one out, decided this was his chance and stormed for the plate. Michael Barrett, catching for the Pads, made an absolutely perfect foot block of the plate. Holliday made an awkward headfirst, chin-bloodying slide and his wrist looked like it twisted backwards as it connected with Barrett's foot. What happened next might be debated for a while.

Barrett's foot moved and so maybe -- maybe -- Holliday's hand touched the plate, but it doesn't look like it did. Barrett, though, dropped the ball... the umpire, Tim McClellan, makes no signal, which usually means nothing has happened yet -- i.e., nobody touched the plate and nobody made a tag so, you know, somebody do something. Barrett picks up the ball and then McClellan signals safe. Which is good for the Rockies because Holliday appeared too dazed to get up and try to touch home. To see it, try going here.

To their credit, I haven't seen much about the Padres bitching about that call. Fact is, the Rockies put the winning run on third with no outs so the odds were significantly stacked against the Pads already at that point.

Regardless, the Rockies are in the playoffs and continue their run on Wednesday against Philadelphia, maybe the only team playing as hot as them. Should be a good one. And that's just one reason I love baseball.