The Changing B1G Basketball Landscape

If you're looking ahead to next season, it's prudent to start with the reigning champion of the conference...and with IU's recent defections, it makes even more sense to do so.

We all know IU will look different in 2013. I read someplace that they're the first program to ever lose four 1,000 point scorers in one off-season.  That'll leave a mark. So is it more amazing that four guys that reached the millennial mark are all gone in the same off-season, OR that a team that had four 1,000 point scorers (on one starting five) never got past the Sweet 16? You guys can discuss that  question amongst yourselves.

What we do know is that it's difficult to lose four starters...regardless of whom those starters are.  It's even tougher when a team loses its heart and soul; IU has lost both.

We had a ton of IU fans assure us that Zeller was going to stay because he needed to develop.  Bad news, friends: Crean's system wasn't helping him develop...in fact, it seemingly was making him worse.  It seems that we weren't the only ones who thought this.  Ex-IU player and coach, and current radio/TVpersonality, Dan Dakich encouraged Zeller to go pro as a way to help him develop.  Zeller wasn't used effectively and his bad habits weren't coached out of him.  As the season progressed, his shoulder got lower and lower when he drove...and officials were all but forced to call the charge on the 7 footer whose shoulder height would have made a running back jealous.

Zeller told the press that he had planned all along to go pro after his Sophomore year...but IU fans told us a different story.  We were told that his parents valued academics so much that he wouldn't leave until he had graduated...He has 35 credit hours remaining. Some told us that he just loved the school too much to leave.  It sounds like he really liked IU, but he loved his teammates, namely those leaving and graduating...so that made his decision easier.

A word of unsolicited advice to my IU friends and anyone else who wants to adamantly predict the actions of another person: It's not a good idea to try to guess what's in another person's head, especially an 18/19 year old kid.

Zeller wisely chose to leave...and in his decision's wake, IU fans were seriously asking, "Won't IU be better without him?" Many continued, "He was too soft." I mean, why wouldn't someone want to stay and play in front of fans like that??? Ammiright?

Zeller was a very good college basketball player...and now that he's no longer at IU, I hope he does OK on the next level; glad he's gone, wish him no ill will.  Afterall, he officially made an excellent decision yesterday.  All that said, I'd guess that three years ago, the average IU fan would have thought that if Zeller only went to the Sweet 16, his career would be judged as a bit of a failure...BUT, IU fans and media alike are spinning the defections to the NBA as nothing but a positive.  That's kind of fun to watch.

But, IU is just one of the programs in the B1G that will be ravaged by attrition this off-season.

Here is how the top of the conference will change next season:

IU
2013 starting five:
Zeller (So. C)*
Watford (Sr. F)
Oladipo (Jr. G)*
Hulls (Sr. G)
Ferrell (Fr. G)

2014 projected starters:
Vonleh (Fr. F)
Hollowell (So. F)
Sheehey (Sr. G/F)
Abell (Jr. G)
Ferrell (So. G)
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aOSU
2013 starting five:
Williams (So. C)
Thomas (Jr. F)*
Thompson (So. F)
Smith (Jr. G)
Craft (Jr. G)

2014 projected starters:

Williams (Jr. C)
Ross (Jr. F)
Thompson (Jr. F)
Smith (Sr. G)
Craft (Sr. G)
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MSU
2013 starting five:
Nix (Sr. F)
Payne (Jr. F)
Dawson (So. F)
Appling (Jr. G)
Harris (Fr. G)

2014 projected starters:

Payne (Sr. F)
Dawson (Jr. F)
Valentine (So. G)
Appling (Sr. G)
Harris (So. G)
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Wisconsin
2013 starting five:
Berggren (Sr. F/C)
Breusewitz (Sr. F)
Evans (Sr. F)
Brust (Jr. G)
Jackson (So. G)

2014 projected starters:
Dekker (So. F)
Kaminsky (Jr. F)
Gasser (Jr. G)
Brust (Jr. G)
Jackson (So. G)
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Michigan
2013 starting five:
Morgan (Jr. F)
Robinson (Fr. F)
Hardaway (Jr. G)
Sauskas (Fr. G)
Burke (So. G)*

2014 projected starters:
-McGary (So. C)
Morgan (Sr. F)
Robinson (So. F)
Stauskas (So. G)
Albrecht (So. G)

-McGary is still deciding if he'll stay or go to the NBA
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Other notes:
-Illinois graduates two guys who started for most of their careers in Paul and Richardson...and they lose an additional role player starter in McLaurin. In addition to these guys, three more guys have decided to transfer out of the program.
-Iowa returns four starters.
-Minnesota will hired Richard Pitino after reportedly being rejected by two or three coaches; will return three starters.  As of right now, Minnesota has an incoming class of zero.
-Northwestern hired Collins after Carmody continued NU's tradition of never making the NCAA tournament. They lose two starters, but Crawford will return from injury.  If I were a betting man, I'd put a quarter on Sobolewski being formed into an unlikable Hurley, Collins, Wojohowski type of player.
-Nebraska opens their new arena and looks to continue some of their improvement from the end of the season...loses two starters.
-Penn State loses only their sixth man...Chambers incoming class is one of the strongest for PSU since they entered the conference.  BUT PSU, during that same period has never had a player rated higher than 3-stars.
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The Forces of Good:
-Purdue's incoming Freshman class of Stephens (IL), Smotherman (IN) and Scott (IN) were all named to their all-state teams.
-Painter noted that he hopes everyone will return who is able to...of course, Purdue will lose Byrd and Anthrop to graduation.
-Rumors around Purdue transfers and defections are still just rumors...but the one that seems to have the most credence still, is Marcius. His locker has been cleaned out and he's been less involved in team activities, we've heard...Painter expressed that he wants him back, and told him so in his post-season interview.

But if he leaves, I guess I can't blame him. In spite of playing hard and being extremely productive down the stretch of the regular season, Hammons still started in the CBI.  Marcius might have taken that as a bit of a sign that his effort and productivity mattered less than Hammons potential, which is a shame.

If you follow us on Twitter, you might have seen AJohn's sentiment that he's looking forward to coming back and being a part of a team that gets much better in the off-season. BUT, his body language were indicative of a guy that struggled with consistency, focus and toughness at times. On top of that, he, along with Hale and Lawson, were rumored to be guys that didn't see eye-to-eye with Painter.

Keep in mind, all of those rumors are mere conjecture...But their lack of playing time during the last ten games of the season is something that was on display for all to see. We'll see what happens, I guess.
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BS' Early Prognostication

Here's the way I see the B1G shaking out in 2014 (as of right now):
1. aOSU
When was the last time you saw a Bucknut line-up with all Juniors and Seniors?? They'll be monsters.

2. MSU
Lots of returning talent...but MSU will be a much smaller team (top-to-bottom) than most Izzo squads.

3. Michigan
UM will have shooting, experience and good size...but even if McGary returns, they still lose a lot. Burke made everybody better and Hardaway did a lot of different things that helped the team.

4. Iowa
We all know Coach Fran is a pretty good coach.  Well, good coach plus a ton of veterans equals success.

5. Purdue
A few years ago, who would have thought a top-5 finish would be viewed as a success? In the wake of '13, in a tough conference, a top-5 season will probably mean Purdue will be ranked in the top-25...all while leaning heavily on Sophomores and Freshman.  A 21-23 win season should act as a stepping stone for a good one in '15. Painter really needs the team to get back to basics and needs them to win now.

6. Wisconsin
I never bet against Bo Ryan being in the mix for the B1G title...until now.

7. Indiana
Sheehey will go from annoying sixth man, to the guy that IU needs to be all-conference.  If he can make the leap, IU will be in the top third of the conference, if not, IU will struggle.  Also, Ferrell will need to play like UM's Burke for IU to be anywhere near where they were in '13.  All that said, IU will have a lot of talent on the roster, but their lack of leadership will hurt.

8. Illinois
Losing seven players in one season, regardless of how much they played, is a difficult pill to swallow for any program.  The Illini will need Bertrand, Abrams and Egwu to take big strides in the off-season in order for Illinois to make the tournament again in 2014. Illinois might get 20 wins next season...but how they get there will be much different than this season.  Don't look for Illinois to start out quickly next fall.

9. Minnesota
There will be growing pains for Goldy next year.  They'll still have some athletes that make jaw-dropping plays, but Minnesota fans might miss Tubby come March as Minnesota goes to the NIT.

10. Nebraska
Miles' team scratches and claws to more progress, but stays in the bottom-third of the tough B1G.

11. Northwestern
The Collins era begins in a fashion that's familiar to Northwestern fans.

12. Penn State
The cavernous Bryce Jordan Center stays mostly-empty for yet another winter as Penn State struggles to run with the thoroughbreds of the nation's best conference.
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More Guessing...

All Conference Team:
McGary UM
Payne MSU
Marble Iowa
Harris MSU
Craft aOSU

2nd Team:
Dekker Wisconson
Sheehey IU
Smith aOSU
T. Johnson Purdue
Appling MSU



*Denotes POY candidate in 2013

Friday Gumbo

Photo Credit: Chris Kramer
catches his pal Rob seconds
after getting picked

Neither J nor I are fans of the NBA...but that won't and doesn't stop us from rooting for ex-Boilers as they take the next step in their basketball career.  But the reasons we don't like the league reared their collective ugly head on Thursday night...before #4 swooped in and shed some light into the dark chasm of the world's most-watched professional basketball league.

Before you attempt to sell the league to us, let me urge you to save your breath.  Your energy might be better used performing a rain dance for the Indiana's BS headquarters in Fishers.

Unlikeable players, a ton of them, were picked time and again on Thursday night...then, a bunch of 6'10" Euros that will never make a dent for their team became the en vogue pick type.  Sure, there were a few players in the first 50-or-so picks that won't be hard to cheer for...but not many, at least for me.  Finally, much like Smooge's long draft night a year ago was mercifully ended late in the night, Hummel was picked just before the two-round draft ended.

Hummel landed in Minnesota after the 58th pick was announced.  The same state that hosted Hummel's first knee injury...and then a year later, Goldy was in town on a football roadie when Hummel hurt it, yet again...many, myself included, weren't so sure Hummel would play basketball at a high level again. But after a second half of a season of very good basketball, and NBA workouts and doctors' opinions that kept reaffirming that one of Valpo's favorite sons was indeed back, he'll play basketball professionally.

The biased Matt Painter told everyone that Rob's best ball was in front of him last week in meetings with the media...and it looks like he's got at least one team that believes it's true.  And really, that'll be all it takes. Hummel's work ethic, overall attitude and ability to make his teammates better should make him a guy that has a solid run in a league that needs players that I actually want to watch play a game that almost-resembles basketball.

As the night wore on, even Purdue fans questioned if Hummel truly deserved a spot on an NBA roster via Twitter. Sure, the guy was injured, but players that were drafted higher like Thomas Robinson and Draymond Green both know how much of a warrior Hummel is on the court...and how difficult he is to stop or when he's feelin' it.

I don't think the NBA deserves Hummel...but Rob thinks it does...so I'm glad he's playing in the league.  Congrats, #4. Regardless of what happens in your pro career, you'll be a legend in West La La.

Hope Focusing on Needs
A few seasons ago, Danny Hope had a hard time getting anyone to verbal during the summer months.  This year, Purdue's coach already has four verbal commitments.  He's got another DE, which is needed, with a last name that you might know from that God-forsaken school in the Southern-half of Indiana.  This Repogle chose Purdue over Air Force, Navy, Marshall and others.

Randy Gregory, another DE, comes to Purdue following some time in JuCo.  His commitment out of High School was merely delayed.

The final DE in this class (thus far), John Strauser, seems to be well-suited to play in the 3-4.  He chose Purdue over Pitt and others...but the really interesting part of that commitment is that he's the nephew of Pitt's new coach (and former Wisconsin OC), Paul Chryst.

David Yancey, an RB out of Saint John, Indiana, surely won't be the last RB in the incoming class of '13...and Danny Etling, the second Elite11 QB finalist in as many years to verbal to Coach Hope, completes the group...So far.

I know, I know, most of these verbals have been known to Purdue fans for a while.  But many Purdue fans, unlike me, don't read up on recruiting...and they do visit this site, so I thought, why not?

But even though I read about recruiting, I still don't trust it a whole bunch.  All it takes for me to be sobered up (when I'm stoked about a verbal commit) is a few minutes cruising around Twitter and reading just how fickle some recruits can be...then I'm reminded why I don't talk about these guys too much until their name is signed in the late winter.  But that doesn't change that it's better to have verbals than to have no one interested or talking about the program...even in June.

But June is almost over...and we're getting closer and closer to the first day of September.

My Gut Says...
J talked about how he wasn't a fan of the new 4-team playoff system earlier this week...and he and I seem to be in the minority when we talk about our hesitation to celebrate the new system.  But, am I the only one who remembers how EsPN college football TV analysts were diametrically-opposed to anything but the two-team BCS game as recently as months ago...but now, they're all smiles as they talk about this mini-playoff?

The whole thing stinks. Sure, it's good that two teams won't be just named to the championship, but a committee to decide such a small group is not comprable to a committee that decides a large field like we see in college basketball. They're still puppet masters.  AND, the presidents and conference heads all enabled UND to continue being a member of the NCAA in football, on their terms.  Any entity that does that is pretty tough to get behind, for me.  Jim Delany and other conference bosses held all the cards...and they gave the once-mighty (20 years ago, or so) Irish an ace or two...and I can't figure out why.

My brother assures me that this 4-team playoff is a step toward an 8-team playoff that will have ripple effects that will affect everybody...Call me skeptical, but until I actually see it, I won't believe it.  Playing a tournament to decide the championship seems to be a no-brainer...but this discussion has been going on for about 20 years, and has moved as slowly as J Money after he's enjoyed a delicious 32 oz. carbonated beverage (illegally) in NYC.

Let's hope it's not longer than just a few years before college football gets closer to truly deciding a champion on the field.

Draft's effects on Purdue

Like all pro sports, the pre-draft talk is agonizingly-long and the event itself seldom lives up to the hype. But, the decisions made by some soon-to-be millionaires eventually trickle down to God's country...Outside of two guys who will have their names called by Commissioner Stern, here are a few others that affected Purdue:

-Minnesota looked like it might not resemble its team from'10 at all about one month and one-half ago. Tubby was rumored to be a candidate for a few jobs, Iverson was set to transfer, Mbakwe looked to be a potential NBA prospect and Sampson was all but out the door toward the NBA.

But a few weeks went by and things started to settle. Mbakwe and Sampson both decided to stay, Tubby the same, but Iverson is heading to Colorado State. Everybody in the league also hopes Smith will be back healthy in the late fall after a bout with prostate cancer...and everything looks very good for the coach at this point.

-Michigan was a team I had near the top of the conference for next season with all their moving parts returning...But, with Morris now heading to the NBA, my perspective changes a bit. He helped Hardaway and others look very good down the stretch and was tremendous on the offensive side, especially in the first half of the season in '11.

-Illinois lost almost their entire starting five from '11 after Jereme Richmond decided to go to the NBA. My favorite part of his story is that he decided to finally pursue his lifelong dream of playing of pay...after one long season in Champagne...and clearly accomplishing all he could for the Illini while averaging 7.6/gm. Nice work, yo.

-More shocking than Richmond's decision to leave was who didn't, in my opinion. After saying he would return for another season following the Bucknuts' departure from the tourney, Sullinger has not wavered and will be back to terrorize opposing frontcourts in '12. The more I read & hear about Sullinger, the more I lean toward liking the kid...but on the court, he still comes off as a tool.

On top of #0 deciding to stay, Buford will be back...which is nuts, to me. I've been impressed with Buford since he arrived on campus and have always thought his game, length and skillset were perfect for the NBA.

Outside of the conference, a few of Purdue's early season foes were affected by who'd stay and who would go.

-When the Boilers go to Puerto Rico, two of their potential foes (Maryland and Colorado) will have a much different look, but Maryland will be without Gary Williams for the first time in 22 years, following his retirement.

-In Indianapolis, Purdue will face a Butler team that loses (arguably) the best Bulldog ever as Matt Howard graduates and attempts to defy the odds again at the next level and Shelvin Mack leaves early...After last year, I'd have told both to leave along with Heyward...after this past season, same thing. Who knows...maybe Butler will end their season in New Orleans? Regardless of how their season ends, it'll probably start off slow for them...but we've seen that before.

-On the flip side, Xavier guard, Tu Holloway and WVU forward, Kevin Jones will return for their Senior seasons...Both will be tough match-ups for Matty's squad. (Special note: Purdue will get to see Jeff Robinson who ended up at Xavier after not being able to attend Purdue due to grades...Robinson played pretty well down the stretch for X last season.)

Some Solutions to the NBA's Problems

This time of year really makes me appreciate college basketball. Granted, the NBA players that are still playing are actually trying this time of year, which is nice, but I'm just not fond of the NBA game.

I got into a discussion with a friend a few weeks back about the quality of basketball that's played in the league. He thought the pro game was superior, I disagreed. I understand that the athletes in the NBA are amazing and don't doubt that for a second. But the lack of enforcement of traveling, the heavy focus on isolation and individual play, the fact that's is as much of a contact game as football at times all make it seem like a mere cousin of Naismith's original intent...not the same game. Plus, I like the fact that each game means something in college.

As J Money knows, I think baseball, basketball and hockey would all benefit greatly from contraction- not only the number of games, but the number of teams...but I might be the wrong guy to give advice as I don't think any of these three sports produce a product that worth consistently watching. That said, I'll still give it.

These problems aren't what I'm here to address. I want to look at the current rule that no player right out of high school can go straight to the pros (unless he wants to play in Lexington, of course).

In case you don't know it already, I'm an idealist, when it comes to Purdue athletes. I like to focus on the most-positive side of things- it makes it easier to really get behind the kids and the team. Granted, I'm not naive enough to believe there aren't problems behind closed doors for Matty and Co. But, this program has done a very good job at a couple of things- First, the players seem to be good kids are are likable...that's pretty simple, and I think it comes down to the type of player Painter likes to pursue. But secondly, the team is filled with true student athletes.

Look no further than the best top-to-bottom recruiting class Purdue has seen in the past 20 years. Hummel, Moore and Johnson all were great on the court and all have excelled in the classroom. When I talk to the players, I always let them know how much I respect that- I could barely keep a 3.0 GPA and I was just a student. I know these guys have a lot of tools at their disposal that I didn't, but it seems they're still working hard...that's heartening...and it's not the case everywhere.

Despite Painter's ability to win 25+ games with great consistency and stay in the top-25 for most of his time at Purdue, he still hasn't attracted a one...or two-and-done type of player. Some would argue that might be the reason Purdue hasn't been in the Final Four since I was five, but I don't know if that's the only reason. Painter's recruits buy in to what he's selling...and it's not glamorous...that's probably why the players in the program work out so well.

Programs like Kentucky, UNC, Kansas, Texas, Florida and others, find themselves with players who are just passing through nearly year-in and year-out. These kids get tremendous exposure, fast-paced systems to play in, and the precedent shows that if their game is geared for the NBA, they'll be in good position in a matter of months, not years, to be millionaires.

But the NBA's rules leave us with some players that think going to class for another day, let-alone another year, is just too much to bear. So the players scrape by for a semester as students in title only, and that's really all that's needed to get them through their sole collegiate season before heading to the draft. To me, that's a joke and makes the idea that academics in college basketball a farce. But, I don't fault the kids as much as I do the system and schools that allow it, and I'd prefer that the kids wouldn't have to go through the charade of pretending to be students for a few months. So what should be done?

I like the premise of making the kids play at a higher level before they get huge contracts- it's helped the NBA avoid a bust or two, there's no doubt about that. But, the current rule doesn't help the college game too much...and a successful NCAA career doesn't equate to one at the next level.

So my idea is this: Every player that plays in the NBA must turn 20 by December 1 of his rookie season...but, they are allowed to be drafted by a team out of high school in the US or abroad, if they declare themselves eligible. The catch is this: Until they're old enough, they play in the NBADL. They can still get large, guaranteed signing bonuses, like in MLB, but their salaries would be capped while playing in the feeder league at under $200K/year (a significant pay bump for most college athletes outside of Columbus)...once they enter the NBA, their salary would graduate significantly once the team with their rights activates them.

I think this system would help the struggling NBADL gain traction with the fans, it would help college basketball by all-but-eliminating players who aren't cut out for school while making programs, not just teams, stronger. Plus, it avoids the discussion that any rule denies a kid a chance to make a living and in turn, help his family situation.

The other, much more simple and logical option of course, is to re-instate the ability to draft kids right out of high school...but from what I hear the NBA really likes the built-in buffer before kids step on an NBA court...so that idea probably won't be going away soon.

Regardless of the draft eligibility rule, Purdue probably won't be affected directly.

No, We Don't Know Anything Yet, Either

We've gotten several direct requests for information or insider info on the status of JJ and Smooge and their pending NBA decisions and whether or not we know anything.

No, we do not.

I assure you, if we knew something official, we'd be shouting it from the rooftops -- the only difference is how we'd get down off the rooftop after shouting. In one scenario, we take the elevator. In another, we sit and cry on the roof, the police are called, Martin Riggs comes and talks us down. In the third, dark scenario, we simply jump immediately.

I kid, of course.

Martin Riggs is fictional.

Rumored: NBA Scouts Think JJ and Smooge Should Return to School

Take this for whatever it's worth (which is, not much, until May 8 comes and goes), but Like Winn of SI says he's talked to some NBA scouts and the word is that JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore should come back to West Lafiesta for their senior seasons.

"Multiple NBA scouts I spoke with said they expected both Johnson and Moore to return to school. Johnson is the only player with a real risk of leaving, but he, like Moore, isn't considered first-round material at present. The better option would be to stay in West Lafayette and hope for a stock boost with a strong 2010-11 tournament."

From your lips, Luke, from your lips....

Luke also talks about how Purdue is "due some positive karma fter its season was derailed by Robbie Hummel's ACL tear." I'm not much of a believer in that kind of karma (we're Purdue, after all -- believing in getting breaks and positive karma is only setting yourself up for sadness), but it's fun to think about. For a moment.

In the end, our position remains the same. If either or both of these guys think they can do right by their families by going pro, then they simply need to do it. However, if they decide the right move is to come back, we'll be beyond thrilled. Either way, though, they've made us proud and we love 'em.

Moore and Johnson Officially to Enter Draft; Boiler Fans Put on Watch

Well, for those who haven't seen this yet, you may want to look away.

JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore will both declare for the NBA Draft but, according to reports thus far, won't hire agents.

This changes little. We still need to hope they're truly undecided and just want to see where they'd be projected to go if they were drafted this year. They also may be told very pointedly what they need to work on to become even better pro prospects.

And so now we wait until May 8. By not hiring agents, they're still amateurs and can come back, but only if they withdraw their names from the draft by May 8.

Take Off the Gold-Shaded Glasses For a Moment

Let's all be logical, for just a minute...I know it's tough when emotions are involved, but this needs to be done.

JaJuan Johnson is a damned-good basketball player. In fact, he's feared by many fanbases and players alike, not only in the BT, but throughout the NCAA ranks. We've seen him go toe-to-toe with great big men and come out on top. We've seen him block shot after shot, while infuriating the opposition and changing the course of a game. Hell, even in his most-recent game for our Boilers, he recorded 23 points, 5 reb, 4 blocks and 2 steals...versus the eventual national champion.

The guy's good, no great. And, he's been good for three seasons for our alma mater. That's worth something to me. He deserves a bit of understanding, in my opinion, and more than that, deserves support.

On top of being a good guy on the court, he's been spotless off of it. From my friends on campus, to donors, no one has a bad thing to say about the guy. And, on the few occasions I've actually talked to him myself, he's been great. He's part of the Purdue family...and he's one of the foundation stones of the new era of Purdue basketball, let's not lose focus on that.

On the message boards, on this site, on Twitter and elsewhere, there's been flat-out vitriol directed at 25, the guy my 4 year old son and others call JJJ...and I don't get it. He's one of us, he's a Boilermaker. He's a late-bloomer- he wasn't on any recruiting radar as a Frosh or even Sophomore in high school. He's worked hard, become more skilled and has earned the right to take some time to make sure he's making the right decision.

I'll admit it, the imperfections of his game have infuriated me at times. Don't think I don't see those. I'd love for him to be meaner, more-aggressive, mentally and physically-stronger and more-consistent...but, in my opinion, his best basketball is in front of him. And just like the rest of his game is rounding into shape, he'll get bigger and stronger...and even mentally, he'll become better. Hopefully we'll get to see some of that next season.

When I got out of school back in 1997, I played hardball in my first post-hiring interview. I got the company who hired me to pay me just under $40k...I felt like it was a pretty good deal. And most of you who read this have been or will be in a similar situation. Sure, you might be one of the lucky ones who made $50,000/year right after you got your undergrad degree, but we're all in a similar boat. This is where we really can't relate with JJ.

His decision won't make him or lose him a few thousand dollars in his first year out of school. The stakes are higher. He knows that, his family knows that, and get this, Matty knows that. None of them want him to do something he'll later regret, either way. It is possible to go to early, but this year is muddier as the players and the owners try to figure out whether they're going to settle their labor agreement without a stoppage. No one knows what's on the other side of the next agreement, but many current players, agents and future players are anxious about what's coming. This plays into JJ's difficult decision.

Where does Johnson stand in a talented draft class? The year someone comes out can change their perspective and help them make their decision. And while we as Purdue fans might have become spoiled by JJ and notice the flaws in his game, tons of people in the know are pretty-enamored with his combination of athletic ability, length and ability to shoot it to 20 feet...kind of a deadly combo. His shooting ability creates match-up problems, especially at the 4, where he should probably be playing anyway.

Another HUGE factor is being close to his pal Rob this and last season. He's watched Hummel get hurt not once, but twice and probably because of that, understands how fragile and tenuous someone's physical value as a basketball player can be. Plus, from what I gather, he's pretty good friends with Evan Turner who also had a serious injury this season that probably made Turner wonder if he had made the correct decision in returning this year.

Turns out for Turner, coming back was a very, very wise and lucrative decision. I think Turner wanted to come back and win a BT title- he did that. Sure, they fizzled-badly in the NCAA tourney, but his standing as a player and prospect was only aided in this year's campaign.

But for every Turner, there's a Harangody, or worse Butler-type player...Like I said, this is a tough decision.

So before you badmouth the guy again, ask yourself a question- Does negativity endear us as fans to JJ? It surely doesn't help. Whether or not he reads this site, GBI or others, the word spreads fast, and his friends might. We're still people, so is he...his exploring of this option doesn't make him stupid in any way. If you can't understand the gravity of what he's pondering, your intelligence should be in question.

In my opinion, there's more than one way this can go and still have it end positively for all sides...but there are variables in the equation that NO ONE on this earth can foresee. For selfish reasons, I think it'd be great if he'd return...but we'll all have to wait a month or so to know if we get to enjoy one final season of watching number 25 with Purdue on his chest.

Either way, I'm rooting for his success...and anyone else on the roster who might or might not be going through the same thought process. Not all players do, but the guys on this roster deserve such respect.

JJ Reportedly Will Enter Draft by This Weekend

According to Sporting News, JJ will enter the draft this weekend, but according to rumors, will not yet hire an agent.

Dammit.

'09-'10 Final Year as Boilers for JJ and Hummel?

A week ago, we asked you what scenario would make it worth losing the Ostrich? There were mixed results, but by and large it seemed like we all appreciated Robbie a great deal and, barring a letdown season on all accounts, we'd wish him well if he chose to make that leap.

Offline, Boilerdowd and I were commenting -- happily -- that so-called experts like Andy Katz didn't appear to even have Purdue players on their radar. We felt like it was a good thing for Purdue to be the overlooked team and, selfishly, we hoped that without overexposure, there might be a better chance of our guys sticking around.

Well, Brent Yarina of the Big Ten Network feels differently. He's got JJ listed as the #1 most likely Big Ten prospect to enter the 2010 NBA draft. Here's his take on JaJuan:

Johnson considered making the leap this past year, so much so that he released a statement saying he was coming back for his junior season. Barring a major injury, there's no doubt this upcoming season will be Johnson's last. His stock skyrocketed this past year, and if he continues his rate of improvement, not to mention adds more mass to his rail-thin body, he's a sure-fire first-rounder.

No doubt this upcoming season will be his last. "Sure-fire first-rounder." High praise, to be sure. And we, too, hope he develops into a certain first-round pick.

Also, and not unexpectedly, we suppose, is Robbie Hummel at #5 on Yarina's list.

Hummel could have a tough decision regarding his future next year if his back cooperates. If the back isn't healthy, you'd have to assume he'll return for his final season, in which case you can throw William Buford's name in here. Hummel won't thrill anyone with his game, but there are few things he can't do on a basketball court, and he's willing to do everything and anything to win.

I don't know about you, but Robbie has thrilled us with his game on multiple occasions.

Point is, it's only June and it already looks like we're going to have to ready ourselves for an Indianapolis or bust kind of season starting in November.

I'm looking forward to the ride.

How The Draft Changes Teams

The next few weeks will be an interesting time as players waiver on their resolutions to stay in college or go to the NBA.

A few teams that might be greatly affected are aOSU and Syracuse. I believe both will be top-15 teams if Turner and Flynn (respectively) return. But, I don't know if either team will be "special" without these cogs to their offensive machines.

Kansas, another team with two potential NBA players, could be great if Aldrich and Collins both return...but without them, will be counting on their incoming recruits to do a whole lot...kind of like '08/'09.

UConn shouldn't be affected by the loss of Thabeet and potential loss of Robinson...With a gray clould of NCAA punishment and Calhoun's potential retirement looming, they will struggle next season as the media circus becomes more and more aggressive. The more I hear about UConn, the less I respect that program- from Robinson's academic inproprieties to recruiting violations, it's clear that Calhoun believed he was untouchable. We'll see if he was right in the coming months.

As JJ starts to try once again to bulk up and get ready for next season, we as Purdue fans should get ready to really soak up what might be a very fun season to watch. If things go as I believe they can next year, JJ will be in a crowd of Purdue players who will become very wealthy in the NBA draft of '10. I'm glad everybody's coming back.