Next Stop: Houston?

I was wrong. I thought the Boilers would finish 3-9, or at best 4-8 after Burke let it slip that Hope would be let go after the Indiana game and the seniors responded by crushing IU for him. (Of course, they did that anyway ...) Instead, they're likely to end up 6-7 after finishing their season outside Big Ten country.

Throwing at or away from Ricardo Allen? You decide.

In a normal year, it wouldn't technically be outside the area: it would be in Ford Field against a MAC school that could hold its own against the Boilers. The good news is that the Kent State-Northern Illinois winner won't be taking apart Purdue's defense; the bad news is that it could be West Virginia doing the work.

Thanks to NCAA action against two otherwise bowl-eligible teams, and to Purdue and Michigan State realizing that you do need to win six games to go, the Big Ten will be sending seven teams to fill eight slots. (Sorry, Mr. Ilitch.) Of course the Big Ten has the rules for filling the spots hidden, so courtesy of Adam Rittenberg, here they are (note that the order in the link is from 2011):

• Conference champion to the BCS, in the Rose Bowl unless they're one of the top two teams (ha!);
• At-large teams to the BCS if they have won at least nine games and are in the top 14 (possible, but unlikely, with Nebraska 14th; a loss to Wisconsin would knock them out);
• Capital One and Outback Bowls can "drop down" no more than one win and one loss when selecting a team – if there is a 9-3 team available, they can take an 8-4 team but not a 7-5 or an 8-5 team;
• Conference runner-up can't drop lower than fourth selection after BCS teams.

First, let's dispense with the bowls we know Purdue won't be going to:

Rose: Nebraska. Please please please do not send a five-loss team to a BCS bowl. Yes, the Badgers have three OT losses and two three-point losses in regulation, but they have zero quality wins and an offense that makes their basketball offense look exciting. Nebraska will get the season sweep and return to the Rose for the first time since the 2001 season. (Should Nebraska fumble this away, Wisconsin goes here, Nebraska to the Capital One, and Michigan and Northwestern move down one spot each.)

Capital One: Michigan. The best remaining record is Northwestern's 9-3. The old Tangerine Bowl will look at Michigan's fan base and Northwestern's fan base and give David Brandon a call. (A win over Ohio State might have propelled Michigan into the top 14; they won't even be in the top 25 now.) That locks Northwestern into ..

Outback: Northwestern. The second appearance in four years for Pat Fitzgerald's crew. Given who's near the top of the SEC East, it'll likely be a tough matchup for a school that hasn't won a bowl since the 1948 season.

The remaining teams will have 7 or 6 wins, so Purdue could theoretically go anywhere in here. However, that's unlikely.

Gator: Wisconsin. The Badgers laid an egg at the end of the season, but still locked up the division thanks to Purdue's horrible conference start. They still travel well, haven't been to the Gator Bowl ever, and could only drop one more spot anyway. The Gator isn't taking a 6-6 team when it can take a 7-6 team.

BWW: Michigan State. Distraught to learn that the Hawkeyes would not be available this year, the Insight Bowl changed its name to the BWW Bowl. The Spartans have a handful of close losses (five by a total of 13 points) and just whacked Minnesota in Minneapolis; they'll be next to go.

Meineke: Purdue. There, I said it. Meineke and Heart of Dallas will arm-wrestle, with the winner getting first pick. Both bowls will intentionally try to lose. ESPN will cut them off in frustration and sort the teams alphabetically, except they'll do it backwards because that's how things go in Bristol.

If you squint, you can almost see old gold and black in one of the end zones.

Heart of Dallas: Minnesota. Sorry, that's what happens when you're lowest on the list: you get no choice.

Who will the Boilers draw in the Texas Bowl? It's hard to say, with the Big Notquite12 having one more week of games remaining, but it's entirely possible that West Virginia, after destroying Kansas, will be the sixth choice out of the conference. (Oklahoma's OT win over Oklahoma State keeps them alive for an at-large bid, so if they beat TCU, they could knock every remaining team up one spot.)

The other teams in the vicinity are Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor – you know, the team that beat Kansas State. Should Purdue fall to the Heart of Dallas Bowl, they'll get the eighth-choice team from the Big 12: add Iowa State to the mix, as a Baylor loss to Oklahoma State would leave the Bears 6-6 with the Cyclones.

No matter who the Boilers draw, it'll be a tough matchup, especially for the defense. The guys forced some key turnovers today, but they gave up a lot of points as well ... and that's the kind of play that fits perfectly into the hands of the high-scoring Big 12.

I think it would be cool for Purdue to give Danny Hope a going-away present. Purdue has met disappointed teams from the Big 12 before and come away with wins: those Alamo Bowl appearances were the last time Purdue won bowl games in back-to-back seasons. Ironically, Oklahoma State, the first of Purdue's victims, could end up meeting them again ... and losses to rival Oklahoma and to Baylor would likely leave them just as disappointed as they were 15 years ago.

Goodbye Gordon & Boilers Become Bowl Eligible

I started off my Saturday at Mackey Arena where I heard the bad news of Gordon Watt's bone-headed move on early-Friday morning. For those of you who don't know it, Purdue PF, Gordon Watt was arrested on suspicion of drunk driving. As a result, Matt Painter kicked him off of the team. I'm not sure if Watt will be back next year for his final year of eligibility or not, but this is a pretty big loss to Purdue.

Hats off to Painter for holding Watt accountable. Watt had been warned that any further offenses would result in him being booted...I hope the party was enjoyable and the Goose was good, because Gordon's team now has to deal with his insurrections.

Onto the good news- Purdue's basketball team, while young, is talented. Along with probably 2-3,000 other Purdue fans, I got to watch the Baby Boilers practice. Kramer is once again silky smooth and seems to shoot better than he did last season. Both Martin and Hummel seem to be able to shoot from about anywhere and are good defenders. Calasan will create match-up problems with his range. Moore wasn't as impressive as I thought he'd be...I don't know if he was off, but he wasn't controlling the drills as I would have liked to have seen. JaJuan Johnson looks like he has big upside, but is simply too slight to be able to complete at a high-level for the coming season...this is where Watt's loss will hurt the worst- It will force Johnson to play more than he probably should be this early in his career.

Without Watt, I'm a bit less-optimistic about our Boilers' season, but still have a lot of positive thoughts for what's to come down the road. I am also very hopeful that Purdue can snag Tyler Zeller (who looks like the most thin human being this side of Kenya, in person). His size would help out next year.


Convincing Win


J, Tim & I all discussed the remainder of the season at length Friday night. We all were in agreement- Purdue could lose out and Purdue could win out...and neither were really out of the realm of possibility. We all believe a win on the road versus Penn State seems to be a stretch (to say the least)...so I guess winning double-digit games for the first time in nearly 30 years would be more shocking. But, Purdue started the last third of the season the right way, Saturday and our Boilers are once again bowl eligible for the 11th time in 12 seasons. Here's to not settling on just good-enough.

Despite the fact that the offense started a bit slow, Tiller's team beat an over-matched Iowa team easily at Ross-Ade. A defensive line that really hasn't put pressure on any opponent all season was in Christensen's face all afternoon. While Christensen is extremely mobile, he is simply not that great of a quarterback, at this point in his career. That said, I counted three dropped passes...in the first possession alone by Hawkeye receivers. Iowa had some pretty big run plays, but Purdue's lead forced Iowa to completely go away from the run in the second half.

Dorien Bryant made some extremely impressive catches and nearly made up for the big smelly eggs he had laid versus both tOSU and UM in previous weeks. Even Selwyn Lymon caught some balls. Painter, despite one very ugly interception managed the game well, especially in the second half. Coach Legg called a good game too; the offense really mixed it up well, running inside & outside, passing underneath, in the flat outside and vertically. All that said, I was most impressed with Jaycen Taylor. Taylor is clearly Superman, but also makes Sheets much better as he presses him to be better. On one play, in fact, Sheets could have stepped out of bounds, but decided to lower his shoulder and knock a DB on his arse and get the extra yardage. He simply doesn't run that way when Taylor's not in his rear-view mirror.

So, was anybody surprised? Tiller continued his dominance over sub-.500 teams...as did Painter. A few real tests lie ahead in the form of Northwestern, Michigan State, Penn State & IU (both on the road). Before the season, many, myself included, thought UND, OSU, UM & Iowa would be the toughest four-game stretch of the season. Turns out, the next four will truly be that stretch. There is still plenty to prove for Purdue.

After the game a couple of things impressed me- First, Joe Tiller showed a bit of fire when dealing with the media following a question that he didn't like...and moreso, I really liked Terrill Vinson's answer to a question. He was asked if becoming bowl eligible took any pressure off the team. He answered (and I'm paraphrasing),

"A lot of Big Ten teams are bowl eligible...so we still have work to do. Our goal isn't to just go to a bowl, it's to win 10 games."

What???? A big goal?

I am extremely pleased that while Tiller isn't mentioning anything but consistency & smaller goals to the media, he's talking about big, difficult goals to the team. Purdue needs to get 10-wins this season to have momentum going into next year. Hopefully, the players and coaches alike believe they can beat all remaining opponents.