We Are....Doing The Predicto

If you're bored and want to be riled up, check out the comments section of any Penn State related blogsite when they discuss anything even tangentially related to the child abuse scandal they will now forever be known for. The levels of denial and delusion are amazing, even to this day.

As new details surface on the atrocities committed there and the behavior of those in power who obfuscated (to put it mildly) while a child predator walked among them for years, it becomes even clearer what kind of a man the sainted Joe Paterno really was. They say you can be judged by the company you keep, so even if you delude yourself into believing there isn't any "evidence" that Paterno handled things criminally, you sure can pass judgement on those he confided in, discussed things, with and conspired among. Had he lived, Joe Paterno would most likely be indicted at this point and awaiting trial on felony charges.

All that said, Bill O'Brien appears to be his own kind of jerk. I discussed with Boilerdowd almost immediately how unlikable and arrogant this guy appears, almost like he's cranky that he got roped into the long term contract he's in that is pretty ironclad.  And while a jerk is just a jerk, accessories to sexual deviancy and people who cover-up child abuse are quite another.

O'Brien had nothing to do with the cover up that went on at PSU over the past decade-plus and the current players didn't, either. They've all done their best to represent PSU in a positive way and I think it's important to remember that. Sure, go ahead and boo them as they take the field, just like you would any other opponent. But as hard as it is to separate what went on from those blue and white uniforms that symbolize Penn State, you probably should try. These guys did nothing wrong but trust the old men in charge when they came on board -- something lots of people did.

That said, it's predicto time.

J says:

We still have no electricity at my house in NJ, which is probably good because I'm not sure how much more Purdue football I want to watch this season. We discussed on our impromptu Handsome Hangout on Sunday that while the Minnesota loss might have felt like rock bottom, it probably can get worse -- like if they continue to get drubbed. And I have some bad news -- they probably will.

One thing that could stop it at this point is if this team decides to play for Coach Hope. While sounding cheesy, it actually has some merit. The 2008 Boilers were a listless, terrible football team, but when Coach Tiller was on his way out, the Boilers laid a whipping on Indiana the likes of which aren't often seen in conference play. When Jim Colletto announced he wasn't coming back in 1996, another atrociously-bad Boiler team went out and beat Michigan 9-3. If these guys get the sense that the coach they supposedly love is on the thin ice he must be at this point, perhaps you'll see some spirit out of them. We certainly didn't see any against Minnesota.

Another thing that could stop the bleeding is the play of Robert Marve. He is reportedly going to start -- right in the nick of time, coaching staff! Of course, they couldn't even make the change that has been obvious to everyone for over a year without making it sound like the media pushed them into doing it.

Robert Marve injects life into this team. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen them play without energy when 9 has been under center. So given that, I do think they have a fighting chance -- if Robert is given the reins for the entire game, or nearly the entire game (if you want to run Henry in a few spots, have at it, but no switching QBs for entire quarters at a time). Of course, the downside for Robert is that he gets the nod against a pretty stout defense, 18th in the nation in points allowed. And finally, there is the issue of his gimpy knee, that we aren't even sure can take a full game of action. As we've said repeatedly, as much as we want to see Marve play, we would rather Purdue lose out than see this young man writhing on the ground again.

If Marve doesn't see the majority of the action for whatever reason, it'll be a long day for the Boilers in front of a half-empty Ross-Ade. If he does, it'll be a slightly less long day, but a long day all the same. There is nothing in the past month-plus (Purdue's last win was Sept 29, by the way -- last Big Ten win will be one year ago in 24 days) that leads me to think Purdue should be given a shot in this game.

Nittany Kittens 42
Purdue 28

Boilerdowd says:

This is a big week for Purdue's football program's future; it seems everyone inside and outside of the program understands that.

In the immediate future, you have Robert Marve, KK Short, Josh Johnson, Akeem Shavers and others all beginning to understand that they're entering the last few games they'll ever play in a Purdue uniform.  These guys have played through injury, bled and torn soft tissue for this program...and played through it.  By every account, Marve's impassioned speech to the team shortly after he was named starter was pretty moving.  The guy is a fighter...and he'll be playing with one less ACL than the other 21 guys on the field this Saturday...can his heart and big arm make up for it, is the question.

The bigger question will be, of course, can the defense stop anybody.  Penn State does a lot well on offense and has one of the statistically-best QBs in the league.  While I can't say I'm impressed with him, I am very impressed with the hard-nosed football PSU has been playing and the fact that in spite of outside distractions, their coaching staff has done an amazing job getting them ready each and every week...that's quite a contrast with Hope and co, is it not?

Hope blames the media and amazing outlets like this one for creating this situation that Purdue's football program is in....but the blame is squarely on the guys in the fancy Nike jackets on the sidelines. Each week when these guys blow smoke up their players arses publicly, our Boilers lay an egg the next Saturday...that's kinda bad news for my alma mater's team.

Hope said that in spite of the score, Purdue was close statistically to Mini-Sota.  Who gives a damn.  They were smoked in every area...the good news is Marve and Henry both provided something to grin about in a day filled with apathetic sighs and groans from the Boiler faithful...that ended (for most of us) with a trip far away from the TV.

If Purdue can do the improbable and win on Saturday, it'll be because Robert Marve and company were allowed to do their job...and no dumbass comments about Marve leaving the script or not being able to manage the game like someone else will be deterring him from doing so.  But, if Nord is pulling the strings, expect more of the same crap that Purdue has been giving the last few weeks.  But prepare for a big first or second play!!!

Tibesar needs to throw out everything he's been doing the past few weeks as well.  If it takes using 12 players to stop PSU, do it.  Hell, Paterno did that a few years ago and all he got was a flag.

Here's a crappy scenario that I think is possible: Purdue will show fight for a half, and maybe get the lead...but that lead will bring TerBush off of the bench for some solid game management and prevent defense on the other side of the field.  Purdue could have a 10 point lead with three minutes left and give that away; we've seen it before.  The good news is, if that scenario rolls around, Hope's revolutionary timeout strategy will save Purdue again...ammiright?

Show me, Boilers...I wanna be wrong.

Loving Lions 35
Purdue 31

The Predicto - Penn State

We're going to the land where ranch dressing ice cream is made and what does the BS staff think will happen to our boys?

The Predicto Starts, EVENTUALLY! Or right now.

Love Ya Lions!

Purdue welcomes one of the nation's best this Saturday...and much of the Purdue fanbase is energized by what we saw last week! The Nittany Lions are a good team, but I don't think they're the juggernaut that their creampuff-fueled stats might indicate. PSU fans are confident, if not cocky that the Lions will route the wounded Boilers...What do we think?

J Says:

We've turned the corner, gone off the cliff, the wheels have come off, whatever euphemism you want to use. Maybe the mood isn't as dark in the Purdue locker room, but when homers like me are done with the team, it's pretty much over.

We've watched this program for too damn long to think anything could possibly be different this year. As has been documented, when was the last time Purdue beat a ranked team? Even at home?? PSU is ranked 6 in the country! We're screwed!

As I've said before, the talent disparity isn't what you might think. PSU is good, sure, but they've played nobody until Illinois and they trailed multiple times, including in the second half. So they're not as bulletproof as their fans think they are. But this Purdue team, I'm sorry to say, has no heart. If they did, they'd contend in this game and it would have a chance to be like the Oregon game. But after last week's uninspired performance (esp by the D) I have zero faith.

I was talking to Boilerdowd this week and I said that with the talent level that Purdue has (granted, not upper echelon, but still good), we should be able to scare teams, at the very least. Penn State is unbeated and highly-ranked and has their eyes on the prize. Coming into our house, against a veteran coach, against a senior QB, etc.... this should be SCARY for them. This should be a "watch out for them" game. Sure they should be favored, and they should win... but they should at least be worried about us the way USC used to worry about playing Cal a few years ago.

But here's the sad thing: We're nothing to be worried about. This isn't a trap game for PSU, because even if they don't bring their top effort, how much could they possibly be losing by at halftime? Two touchdowns (generously)? And is there anyone among us who doesn't think we'll give that right back?

Winning this game would go a long way towards restoring some credibility to our season and restoring a modicum of our faith in this season's team. But I don't see it happening. I think we're done. And the death spiral is just beginning.

PSU 48

Purdue 17

Tim Says:

This one is going to be a real stinker. The offense sucks. The defense sucks. The kicker suddenly sucks. The whole sucky team just sucks.

Penn State begins it's Willie Nelson stretch. They're on the road again for 4 out of the next 5 games. The up side? PSU is 9-16 on the road since the start of the 2003 season. The down side? They own Painter and the rest of the Boilers. In three career games against Penn State, all Purdue losses, Painter has not thrown a touchdown pass in 104 attempts.

My prediction?

PSU 38
Purdue 20

boilerdowd says:

There are a lot of numbers we could look at this week...Tiller's 2-9 v. JoePa during his career. Painter has never beaten a ranked team, home or away, as a starter. Purdue's overall defense is 107th, Penn State's offense is 9th. Conversely, Purdue's offense is a less-painful 42nd (passing 21st), but PSU's defense is 14th. And the most painful is the one you'll hear about next week too- Purdue is 0-15 in their last 15 games versus ranked opponents. This doesn't look good on paper...and the gut feeling, for me is no better.

Prior to last week's UND game, I watched MSU play IU...I wasn't impressed with much other than the fact that MSU wears teams out...right before kickoff in South Bend, because of what I knew about UND's previous games, I thought Purdue would win the game. I was way off. The quotes coming out of West Lafayette aren't encouraging either. Players and coaches alike talked about how they simply weren't "up" for the Irish. If you can't be emotionally ready for a rival coached by one of your coach's least favorite people, why would you be ready for a team that is coached by one of your coach's pals and simply owns you? Sure, it's at home, and "Shout" will be getting RA crunk, but that might not even be enough (sarcasm, in case you couldn't detect it).

Last year, Tiller was robbed of his last chance to beat JoePa by officiating...this year, it won't be close enough for it to matter.

The old adage "You can't teach an old dog new tricks" seems poignant here. JoePa doesn't know how to lose big games...JoeT doesn't know how to win them (anymore).

PSU 34
Purdue 17

What You Said:
56% of you homers thought Purdue would win this game coming into the season...0% of the BS staff agrees with you...We'll see what happens Saturday.

Damnit, prove us wrong. We'll all be there this week in 119...Longing to tell a new tale of victory and the heros that made it possible...

To Your Call Once More We Rally;
Alma Mater Hear Our Praise.
Where The Wabash Spreads Its Valley;
Filled With Joy Our Voices Raise.
From The Skies In Swelling Echoes
Come The Cheers That Tell The Tale
Of Your Vict'ries And Your Heros,
Hail Purdue! We Sing All Hail!

Hail, Hail To Old Purdue!
All Hail To Our Old Gold And Black!
Hail, Hail To Old Purdue!
Our Friendship May She Never Lack.
Ever Grateful, Ever True,
Thus We Raise Our Song Anew;
Of The Days We've Spent With You,
All Hail Our Own Purdue!

Spoilermakers?? Not a Chance.

The label of Spoilermaker became pretty popular in the Burtnett, Akers and Colletto years simply because no one really every expected Purdue to win...so when the did, it spoiled some unexpected team's afternoon and maybe even their season.

Now, expectations are back to being low, how low? Hear what Joe Tiller had to say about last week's effort v. UND:

"I told our team at halftime, 'Fellas you couldn't be in a more enviable position. You're sitting here at 14-all and could be up, but your not. Lets go out there and get up on them like we're capable of doing.' I thought I would get a great big, 'Yea,' but I got more like an, 'OK.'"


"After watching the tape on Sunday, I can understand why they were of that mood," Tiller explained. "Even though we were in the football game and actually were in position to be ahead in the football game, they were getting knocked around pretty good, they were getting manhandled pretty good in the first half so I could see why maybe at halftime they weren't quite sure how much more they had in them if they had to go out on the field and had to stay on the field. Of course, that's exactly what happened to us.”

So, Joe asked a few years ago for fans to manage their expectations. Now, he's got what he wants...no one has any expectations of his squad...not his players, not his coaches, not even himself. He got his record, smoked his victory cigar, what more does he have to prove, right?

I think regardless of how this season goes, Tiller will be remembered by the majority of the super-soft Purdue fanbase as one of the great coaches, if not the all-time greatest...I don't agree with the idea that this season doesn't affect his legacy.

He decided to leave the cupboard pretty baren following this season; he had faith in this team during camp...it's time to show why. Afterall, it gets even harder next week.

Painful But Imperative Rebuilding Process
Tiller doesn't like the idea of rebuilding, clearly. He came in and won right away with the group that Colletto couldn't seem to win too many games with. Then the Boilers got even better as a few recruits came in. But, after the Rose Bowl, Purdue probably should have focused on rebuilding toward another great team instead of accepting just another bowl game. Tiller wanted to go to a bowl game, no matter how lousy, each season. Now, it looks like the program is finally going to need to be rebuilt next season.

A watered-down spread offense with very few weapons remaining and a defense that hasn't been the aggressor in five years is what '09 looks like. Coach Hope has a tough road ahead of him in his first season as head coach. Not only does he have to pick up the pieces of three or four poor recruiting off-seasons, but also needs to re-install a sense of discipline and accountability among the team.

The system, the attitudes and the overall culture of Purdue football desperately needs an overhaul.

My Sources Say...
Here's what Purdue football has become, according to a few people close to the program.

Young players are afraid of Tiller...he's always quiet, doesn't raise his voice, doesn't talk a lot; and the young guys are worried about what he's thinking and how he's going to punish those who step out of line.

Conversely, the older players have seen that the coach won't discipline guys that have been arrested or have been involved in conduct detrimental to the team...So many of them take it easy. In fact, I'm told some players simply don't practice as the seasons wear on. As a result, team unity is pretty lousy because these vets aren't punished for their lack of effort and instead, are rewarded with starting roles or significant playing time...while a guy buried in the depth chart who busts his hump barely sees the field.

If this is what the program's become, it's sad...but it also makes a great deal of sense. As I talked about a few days ago, individual players and the greater program no longer seems to move forward from year to year.

Tiller came into Purdue and held Chike Okeafor accountable for his actions...and made him earn his way back onto the team. This showed who was running the show and earned immediate respect from the team. Keep in mind, Okeafor was one of the only members of the Purdue defense to have received accolades coming into the '97 season...his class and previous accomplishments didn't matter...there was one standard and he had to live up to it.

It's going to be hard for this Purdue team to turn around what we've seen so far. The culture of "you only have to win by one" and "never too high, never too low" is deeply engrained in the captains and Seniors. My hope is that someone is given enough latitude that they can smack their team mates around and bring this underachieving group back to life...It's not probable, but it is possible. I'm still holding out for Hope's sake.

Big Ten Roundtable -- Nostalgia Edition

It's time for this week's edition of the Big Ten Bloggers Roundtable, hosted this week by Our Honor Defend. So let's get on to Our Answers Written.

[Oh, and why the pic of delicious Jenna Fischer? Why not? The Office is back, we all like The Office, and we all like Jenna... and she's as worthy of space here as anyone.]

01. We're all basically in conference play now, sans Purdue who playedvisitor to Notre Dame over the weekend. What did you see in theconference opener that you liked? What did you see that suckednoodles? If you're one of the Purdue blogs, what did you see againstNotre Dame that has you nervous (or even optimistic) for yourconference opener against Penn State this Saturday? Oh, and, have funwith that game, by the way.

Question 01? What is this, the Dukes of Hazzard?

Pretty much everything "sucked noodles" for us. Losing to a not-very-good Notre Dame teams does not bode well for our season. There aren’t any more gimmes on the schedule and we think this team went from “typical 7-8 win Purdue team” to “will struggle to go to a bowl game.”

The offense, while not terrible, is wildly illogical in terms of playcalling. Something works (i.e. Kory Sheets) and so... we go away from it for a while. Then we go back when we shouldn’t. Lather, rinse, repeat.

On defense, well, we’re terrible… to the point where both OTT and us called for D-coordinator Brock Spack to be fired immediately. And anyone who reads either site knows we’re not knee-jerkers about this stuff.

We’re not optimistic, at all. PSU should run roughshod over us this weekend. All three BS staffers will be in attendance in Section 119, so if a miracle happens, then…wheee.

02. Ole Miss punked #4 Florida in Gainesville. #1 USC got punked byOregon State on national television? What's the underlying themebehind these bizarre upsets? You guessed it: magic. Some kind ofhocus-y pocus-y sorcery in the form of "familiarity". The idea beingpitched around is that these upsets come in conference games becausethe underdog has played the heavily favored team before, and thusisn't afraid of them nor surprised by anything they do. Should I buythis idea? Or are these upsets more likely the combination ofsomething more conventional, like great/horrendous gameplanning,preparation and execution by the underdog/favorite team respectively?

Probably a combination. Yes, I think there’s legitimacy to the claim of “familiarity” – it’s tough to continue beating an opponent who sees you a lot. And that transitions to gameplanning/preparation – if you know the opponent well, you can gameplan for them better. Right?

As for the examples you cited, though, I think Ole Miss is just a pretty good team in the tough SEC and USC took Oregon State lightly. I don’t think they were ready to play and this is becoming a little bit epidemic in the Pete Carroll era.

03. Entering the season, Beanie was the Big Ten's Heisman favorite.After a few games, Javon Ringer had put up the Heisman stats, though Idon't think anyone could've believed that Ringer would have the hypemachine necessary to get him to New York. Yet, after this week, I seehis name mentioned more and more in the Heisman race. Do you thinkRinger, at this pace, gets to New York on something more than acourtesy visit (on courtesy visit, see: everyone last year not namedTim Tebow; everyone in 2006 not named Troy Smith)? How about DaryllClark? Is Daryll Clark of Penn State legitimately in the Heisman raceafter week 5?

It’s too early to be talking Heisman. Let’s just slow down. It’s also too early to be talking about PSU like they’re national championship-bound. They just played their first legitimate opponent of the season and now they get us, so clearly, they have yet to be tested. Same goes for all Heisman hopefuls. 3-5 good games is a LONG way from being invited…. But if you’re demanding a prediction, I’ll say no, none of those guys go… but the best chance of going is maybe Clark.

04. With the nonconference schedule basically over, do you think theBig Ten collectively bettered its standing from the maligned positionit was in before the season began? For every Wisconsin victory overFresno State and Penn State thrashing of Oregon State, there'sMichigan's turnover bonanza against the Irish and Ohio State'sneutering by USC. Long question short, what sticks out more: thepositives or the negatives for the conference?

No. Everyone still thinks the Big Ten is weak and the only game the “nation” collectively paid attention to was aOSU getting obliterated at USC… who then went and lost to a different OSU. So Ohio State’s SOS gets knocked down another peg, further de-legitimizing the Big Ten.

We still think it’s a very legit conference and, top-to-bottom, there’s no way you can convince me it’s not on par (at least) with the Big 12, but the prevailing, idiot-wisdom from the media mouthpieces who have the ESPN stage (i.e., Mark May, Mark Schlabach, etc.) is that the Big Ten sucks, plain and simple, and after spitting that out they move on. If anyone paid any attention they’d see the “bottom” teams of recent years (NW, Minn, Purdue, IU) are much more competitive – and downright good in some cases – as the middle-to-bottom dwellers in other conferences. But whatever, everyone thinks we suck, why do I waste my time?

05. As I'm sure you may have seen on your moving pictures box, theErnie Davis movie has been getting a lot of publicity for its imminentrelease to theatres. The story, of course, centers around the firstAfrican-American Heisman winner and some of the trials that come frombeing a black athlete, playing before the Civil Rights movement andplaying in the Cotton Bowl. Does your football program have anuplifting story that you think is movie-worthy? If so, please share it.

The Seth Morales Story: The Tale Of A Walk-On Who Eventually Caught Perhaps The Biggest Pass In Recent Purdue History When Future NFL-er Mike Doss Blew His Help Coverage.

Starring Cowboy Joe Tiller… Seth Morales…and Drew Brees as The Gunslinger.

Here’s a clip of Drew talking about it.



And here’s the film itself.



Oscar-winner.

Boilers 24th in AP (27th in ESPN/USA Today)

Purdue hasn't been ranked since 2004...I'll say it again, hasn't been ranked since 2004. That's a long-damned time for a school that was once a powerful force in college basketball. But, they have sneaked into one of the polls at 24th. What's that mean? Well, many would say it means they're prime for an upset.

Penn State is coming off of the biggest upset of the first half of the Big Ten season...Purdue coming off a solid road victory versus Painter's mentor. Purdue is playing good ball, but perhaps PSU has figured out how to play without Claxton...that's what many in the PSU family believe anyway. From an outside view, based on just highlights, it seems to me that Penn State had a great shooting night v. the Spartans- Question is, can they do it again versus the Boilermakers in Mackey? Another factor in tomorrow's contest is revenge- I'm pretty sure the ass-kicking that Purdue gave the Lions is fresh in their mind.

The newfound ranking coupled with Purdue being on upset alert should have the Paint Crew ready to help the basketball team in every possible way. Let's hope the crowd is near capacity or full for all remaining games on the schedule...Purdue must defend home court in order to contend for the title. Especially with games like IU and Wisconsin on the road on the horizon.

Oh yeah, when asked about the possibility of being ranked this morning, Painter said, "Our goal isn't to get ranked. It's to get ranked and stay ranked. That would mean continued success."

Painter continues to say the right things and show that he isn't going to be pleased with just good enough or an OK season...It's a good thing, because despite what the national media thinks, the Big Ten is pretty dang strong down the stretch.