First Hand Account of a Debacle

Our pal Ed couldn't come up from Texas for the game, so he sent his tickets to me this week.  I thought I'd take my Dad, fellow Boiler alum...but he had to go visit my grandma for her birthday.  I then asked another Boiler...and another...and another.  I asked quite a few Purdue alums and even a few non-alums that are big fans...but no one was biting.  Perhaps they all knew something that I wasn't willing to admit- nothing's changed in Purdue's program...and they didn't want to see yet another bloodbath in person.

J and I both thought Purdue wouldn't win...but neither of us could really figure out how the Boilers would lose.  Well, they lost in a very familiar way- by doing almost everything poorly.

The Special Teams gave away the ball and set up a score, the offense had too many turnovers- one leading immediately to 6 points...and the defense couldn't stop the run; inside or outside, and just for good measure, the DBs allowed easy completions whenever UM needed a larger chunk of yardage.

Prepared.

Denard Robinson looked like a Heisman candidate once again...shaking the rust loose that is often caused by the shackles of good defenses.  And the old adage that 'nothing cures an ailing team like a game versus Purdue' reared its disgusting head once again.

It was chilly, a bit windy and clear...nearly-perfect weather for football, really.  UM fans were confident as they headed into Ross-Ade- they were confident that Hoke would right their collective ship off of the bye week...and he did. Conversely, Purdue's coaches seemingly took the week off of practice as their players looked extremely ill-prepared, and not at all equipped to play a B1G game on this day.

If you didn't watch it, congratulations.  Those hours that you spent coaching your children, watching better football, gardening, painting, napping or hunting for the perfect pumpkin were hours well-spent.  But the three hours that I spent in one of my favorite places in the world, I'll never get back.  The good news is that I got to watch the game with a friend of mine, and it was good to hang out together...sarcastically cheer every now and again and hope that something would change.

I have a confession- I left this game early...something I hardly ever do.  But, I made it to the around the 4:00 mark. I didn't see UM break 40...but it felt like I watched the Wolverines lay 100 on the metallic beige and black.

TerBush played poorly...but I've said this before- it's not his fault he's starting.  I believe the guy is playing as well as he can.  But today was the reason that people like me have been saying for weeks/months- Purdue needs a gunslinger.  I guess I didn't buy into the idea that Purdue's defense had suddenly become that of the Baltimore Ravens with the injection of the 3-4.  But, in spite of his guts and grit, I'm not sure Marve...or Henry is enough. If the play calling doesn't change, it's not going to matter who is at the controls.

Drew Brees would have been benched by Hope and Nord for too much free-wheeling in this system.  15 might have checked out of the second, third, fourth or fifth fake read draw on first down that didn't gain more than one yard.  Or maybe he'd call a slant route OR a vertical route (*sigh*).  Or maybe not.  What I do know is there's a reason Purdue fans will have a hard time believing the next big game will end differently.

As fans, we're on a hamster wheel of crappy Saturdays.  Just like your favorite rodent runs the same way over and over hoping for something new with the next stride, Danny Hope and company do the same garbage in each game versus good teams and get similar results time and again.  Sure, every now and again, we all jump off of the wheel for some room temperature water (a win over a MAC opponent) or some kibble (an unexpected win over a disappointing aOSU squad).  But when the potential is there for Purdue to actually change course, things don't change.

I really believe that Ross, Bush, Shavers, Marve, Holmes, Short, Gaston, Russell, Allen, Johnson, and others are good enough to start for a ton of really good programs in the nation.  But my Boilers continuously look like they're not ready for primetime when the bright lights come on.

A friend of mine who graduated from Michigan texted me as I got into my car outside of Ross-Ade.  He rightfully taunted me...and I had no response other than Purdue stunk today; a lot like they did last season in Ann Arbor.  A new DC, Senior leadership and a home game didn't change the outcome.

And perhaps even more worrisome, an even bigger intra-divisional game looms six and one-half days from now...versus a program that handed Purdue one of its worst losses in the program's long history, just a season ago.

Ugh.

I guess the good news is the media will be off of Purdue's back...removing all of that undo pressure from them about being one of the best teams in the league. So there is a silver lining.

Purdue-Michigan: The Conference Season Begins

It's predicto time around these parts. This weekend, at a special 4 PM start time, the Boilers take on Michigan at home.

I think it's safe to say this is the most hyped the fan base has been going into a conference slate in quite a while. As Boilerdowd said on his video vignette, the question now is whether this is going to be an '06-'07 kind of team that folds when competition gets serious or an '03-'04 team that actually has the chops to compete against the meat of the schedule.

What do we think? Well, I'm so glad you asked. Let's go there now.

J says:

I know I've become the resident cynic, but I just haven't seen enough from Danny Hope-coached teams to believe -- just yet -- that they're going to be different than previous years. Yes, they did what we asked/hoped for in the pre-con, for the most part. And if they'd pulled out a very winnable game against Notre Dame, the Boilers would almost surely be a ranked squad, 4-0 heading into conference play.

I do remember guys like Ricardo Allen saying that the ND game was their "one slip up" and that it wasn't happening again. I like that mentality. I like the resolve. As I've said before, I really like the makeup and focus of this team.

That said, I don't know what to think about this week. Michigan isn't as good as was originally thought, which shouldn't be a complete shock, really, since they're only two years removed from being pretty terrible under RichRod. However, they're also not as bad as some are starting to suggest. Whether you think it was the result of a big lead or what, Purdue's defense gave up a lot to Marshall. This Wolverine defense is not the Herd defense, so as much as I'd like to say Purdue can outscore them, I'm not so sure about that. Yes, I know Alabama put an offensive whipping on Michigan, but let's not kid ourselves into think Purdue's offense is similar to Alabama's. There was also a fair amount written over at MGoBlog and elsewhere about the number of missed assignments by the Michigan defense against Alabama. One might think they've had the time to sort that out. And then, of course, there's always the Denard factor. The guy finds ways to torment defenses. Of course, his passes look worse than mine in a flag football game....here you go boys, go up and get it!

The problem, of course, is that Michigan's prototype receivers often can go get them, and while Purdue's secondary looked great last week, they're not huge guys. Josh Johnson seems as though he'll be consistent against anyone -- consistently good. Ricardo thus becomes the wild card here -- does he continue developing in the positive direction? Or does he get worked over like he has against talented receiving corps in the past?

I do think Purdue's defense is capable of causing Denard trouble. I think the line will have a good day and force him to move around and not have tons of time to throw the ball. I feel good about this, because I think it could lead to mistakes that the Purdue secondary has begun to show they are more than willing to capitalize on. But then my emotions swing back to remind me that Purdue has beaten three truly dreadful defenses. I do believe that you shouldn't be penalized for who you've played because you can only beat who's in front of you, though, and again as discussed, Purdue probably should have handed ND their only loss thus far.

I want to continue to pick Purdue to lose the games I actually think they'll lose, but when I look carefully at the matchup here, I keep thinking Purdue really does have a better-than-average chance. If they lose, I think it will be either because the coaching staff made some questionable decisions or they jerked around Marve and TerBush all day, since reports are indicating that Marve will be available. I guess what I'm saying is that coaching in general is what might undermine the Boilers tomorrow.

I was wrong last week and let's hope I'm wrong again. Boilers show well, but lose painfully.

Michigan 34
Purdue 27

Boilerdowd says:

Perhaps it's the wings on the helmet that give me nightmares or the memory of last year's game that resounds in my thick skull...but I haven't felt great about this game in spite of UM's two losses.

Sure, their two losses come to two of the better teams in the nation, according to early polls...but even in victory versus lousy teams, UM hasn't looked great.  I think most people in America came in to this year thinking as I did- it was logical that with a Senior QB that was a legit Heisman candidate last season, and the same coaches all returning, the Wolverines would be world beaters this season.  But, my eyes have told me a different story when I've watched them and the stats agree with my LASIK-improved organs.

UM doesn't sustain drives with great regularity this season and doesn't overwhelm in any one area.  Their pass efficiency and overall passing offense is in the bottom third of the league, they're last in the league in first downs and their rushing offense is in the middle of the conference...in spite of returning two of the leagues best running weapons in Toussaint and Robinson.

On the defensive side of the ball, there's good news and bad news- They're 12th in the league in sacks BUT they one of the best passing defenses in the league.  Plus, they're one of the worst rushing defenses in the league (that number is a bit skewed due to 'Bama's day v. UM).

On top of that, their kickoff coverage has been pretty lousy at times...and it kind of feels like Mostert is due to make a bit of noise.

Purdue did an OK job containing UND's Golson when they had to, but he was able to dump it off to his tight ends all day...and UM doesn't tend to use the tight end with a ton of regularity.  But, Robinson is a very rich man's Golson.

Josh Johnson has looked rock solid for the Boilers all year...and Allen, when not nicked up has played well too.  But, Gallon and what's-his-name have torched Purdue in the past...so Johson and Allen will need to play large for Purdue to win.

My biggest fear comes from Toussaint, Robinson and other UM backs getting on the outside v. Purdue's linebackers.  Michigan will have trouble manufacturing hard yards on the inside v. Gaston and Short...but teams quickly find Purdue's weakness when they have to, and UM is filled with capable skilled position players to exploit Purdue.

Earlier in the week, it looked like it was going to be like UM's last visit to God's country- gray, cold, rainy...but now it's going to be cool (lower 50s) and clear.  That's good- I don't like TerBush without good footing.

If Purdue (read as Marve and TerBush) stays patient and doesn't try to test UM over the middle, and on defense, Purdue's front can contain Robinson, this could be a slugfest...but if it comes down to a field goal, I don't like Purdue's chances too much.

That said, I kind of feel like UM is still a better team than they've shown...and they'll be ready coming off of the bye week.  Plus, I really like Hoke as a coach and think he'll have the corn and blue dialed in. Purdue struggles as we watch too many QB changes...

UM 31
Purdue 20

Boilers Gut-Punched In West Lafayette, 66-64

Just out of reach.

The snazzy silver unis did not bring the needed magic tonight, as the Boilers fell to Michigan at home, 66-64. It was an exciting game, with end to end action and not a whole lot of defense being played, and a total of only 21 free throws shot between the two teams. Kind of an unusual Big Ten game, by usual standards. In the end, though, it was a bad ending for the home team.

For the first time in two years, the Boilers have lost multiple home games at Mackey. For the first time in seven years, Michigan has a win in Mackey. And for the first time in five years, the Boilers have seven losses before the end of January. I'm sure I could come up with more, but it's depressing me, so I will stop there. It's a year of too many non-good firsts-in-a-while for the Boilers and the road is getting more and more difficult.

Before Saturday against Michigan State, I assured B-dowd and others that the Boilers were making the NCAA tournament. I pointed out that at 14-5, if the Boilers went even .500 in their remaining dozen games, they'd be 20-11 (10-8 in the Big Ten). That would surely be enough, and doesn't even include potential Big Ten Tournament wins.

Well, they're 0-2 as they begin that final dozen games and so now ten games remain, with six wins needed to get to 20. Why 20? I just think the committee likes 20-win teams from power conferences -- especially the best conference. I am certain that a 20-win Purdue team gets in without a sweat. So now the tall order is 6-4 down the stretch. And while I know there are many of you thinking this team is veering sharply towards an NIT berth, there is still plenty of basketball to be played, and one thing I've learned from watching competitive Big Ten ball is that you just never know. Teams that look unbeatable are suddenly toppled, teams that looked left for dead rise again. And this year is particularly nutty in the conference. So I am not ready to give up, especially given the effort we saw from the leaders tonight.

Rob Hummel and Lewis Jackson came out and played incredibly solid games. Rob shook off his career-worst performance in East Lansing over the weekend to put in 16 points, grab 5 boards and dish 6 assists. Lew fought through his continuing back issues to lead the team in scoring with 17 points. LewJack also had 8 assists and went 6-8 from the floor and 5-6 from the line. Lew came to play and looked positively despondent when the Boilers came up short.

Nobody else on the team broke into double digits, with Ryne coming the closest with 9 points on 3-8 shooting. Terone Johnson continued his staggeringly atrocious FT shooting (currently at 33%) and Kelsey Barlow played nine minutes and was held scoreless. Awesome. 

Once again, the Boilers had stretches of lethargic play, poor rebounding and completely ice cold shooting. However, the bright spot was the Boilers 17-4 run that took them from a 44-34 deficit to a 51-47 lead. Mackey was noticeably loud (and all credit to the Paint Crew for that noise as the old people in view of the sideline camera were sitting motionless, as per usual), the Wolverines were reeling and the good guys were looking as excited as we've seen them in quite a while. This run was where DJ Byrd his his two threes, Ryne hit a couple of his and Rob seemed to be everywhere. I will say, it was nice to be on the positive side of the come-from-behind run like that.

Unfortunately, though, the Boilers found the crevice again and fell through it, failing to make a field goal for the final four minutes of the game. Incredible. I don't know how you fix this weird streakiness or at least find a way to get points when things have gone cold...but you need to if you're Matt Painter. Otherwise, an NIT berth will become more and more likely.

Here's to February 29th, Senior Night, being Rob, Lewis and Ryne's last game in Mackey and not some meaningless "tournament" game in March.

The Predicto - Big Blue

Purdue returns to Ann Arbor with the wind at their back and dreams of making 100k+ fans want to vomit just 2 years ago.

Predicto machine is churning over this one..

Better or Worse than new Pete?

Purdue versus Michigan Liveblog

If you kids want to jump in and comment live as we move along, do so here. The guys from Maize N Brew will be there, too, and though we're not sure we'll be able to make the party, you should be able to have some fun.

Manny Harris's Elbow and Chris Kramer's Nose Have Not Forgotten One Another

As you may recall, the Boilermakers and Wolverines got together on January 31 in West Lafayette and mayhem ensued. Manny Harris elbowed Chris Kramer in the schnozz, Kramer went down and bled with a broken nose (which, according to some, he faked -- hey, he's dedicated to his cause), Harris was ejected, Coach Beilein tried to manhandle the ref and we all generally went bananas.

UM and Purdue fans haven't ever truly hated one another, I don't think, but if it gets crazy again tonight I think that could begin to happen. And maybe a new bitter rivalry will get going.

The Boilers come into tonight's game having won four in a row and with Hummel's back issues constantly in question. One moment he's going to sit out the rest of the season, the next minute he's playing against cellar-dwellars like IU. Your guess is as good as mine.

Since that 1/31 game, the UM squad has gone 3-3, which isn't so bad except that they lost to Iowa on Sunday. They're now 17-11 (7-8 in the B10) and officially a bubble team. Tonight is their last home game of the regular season and then they go on the road to Wisconsin and Minny. So to say tonight's a big game for them would be accurate.

It's also yoooge -- in my opinion -- for our Boilers. Win this game and then hold serve at home against OSU and Northwestern, and then we head to MSU for our showdown. Lose any one of those, though, and the regular season race is over. So tonight's the first -- and toughest -- step to getting to that showdown game against MSU.

I don't expect the Boilermakers to overlook Michigan tonight. Painter will have them ready and will remind them of how lackluster they looked against IU. This Michigan team has already proven they can win -- UCLA and Duke know this -- and they led the Boilers at the half a month ago, in West Lafayette. Crisler should be rocking and the hate that will be leveled at Chris Kramer will be infuriating to Purdue fans, as this guy did nothing but play solid defense and irritate Manny. But the fans will get on him, big time. Fortunately for us, CK seems to play even better when this is the case.

Also, keep an eye out for the new Boilermakers road unis -- the black on black should be cool.

We'll also be experimenting with a joint liveblog tonight, in the spirit of all of us fans getting along. You'll be playing nice in the sandbox with the readers of Maize N Brew, if you so choose.

If the liveblogging technology works and is well-recieved, we'll use it in future games, too, and I intend to liveblog our first round tourney games for those who have to work and will be unable to see it. I'm not sure if it WILL work tonight and I know the staff of Boiled Sports isn't entirely sure we'll be able to be online during gametime, so if we're not... well, play nice. And if the livebloggy thinger doesn't work, well, we're not technical geniuses. But we are handsome, and what more do you want?

Check back at gametime for the liveblog stuff to be up and running.