UM Predicto

Tim says:
How many more ways can you say "Things don't look good this week." Against like opponents Purdue lost to Notre Dame and Illinois, while Michigan beat both of those teams. Purdue scored 22 points against those teams, while Michigan dropped 95 (albeit with a 3 OT game in there). No matter how you look at it, Purdue has not played well this year. Michigan is in the top 10 in the nation in rushing yards, #12 in points for, and #28 in passing yards. Their obvious weakness is the defense. I don't think Purdue has the tools to exploit that defense though. I expect to see a heavy dose of Denard Robinson, to the tune of 300+ yards of offense himself. In other words, nearly as many yards than the Purdue team.

Michigan 38
Purdue 13

J says:

Purdue has averaged less than 8 points per game in their last three games. Michigan scores...lots. Let's say Purdue triples their avg output for the past three games...that's maybe 24 points. Can the Boiler D hold Michigan to less than that? I don't think so. No matter what, though, I think this game will be tight at the half. The question is whether Purdue can maintain the intensity for four quarters. Against my instincts, I'm going to say they do. The Boilers know they need this game if they're going to keep bowl hope alive.

Purdue 29
Michigan 28

boilerdowd says:
If you listened to the HH, you know where I stand on this. Sure, UM's defense is deplorable. BUT, our Alma Mater's offense is still so green, that if they were running the offense against a walk-through defense, I don't think they could score 60+ in 60 minutes...and there's the rub. Michigan has only scored 17 or fewer points once this season, and has scored more than 28 points in every other contest...Purdue, conversely, has scored under 17 points 4 times and only scored over 28 points twice. Who know what might have been for Purdue's offense...but what's happening now is this offense just doesn't seem to be geared up for a shoot-out.

This one doesn't feel like an impossible win, but it doesn't feel too likely. Like last week, Purdue should be in this, or in the lead...for a half.

Michigan 35
Purdue 24

To Your Call Once More We Rally;
Alma Mater Hear Our Praise.
Where The Wabash Spreads Its Valley;
Filled With Joy Our Voices Raise.
From The Skies In Swelling Echoes
Come The Cheers That Tell The Tale
Of Your Vict'ries And Your Heros,
Hail Purdue! We Sing All Hail!

Hail, Hail To Old Purdue!
All Hail To Our Old Gold And Black!
Hail, Hail To Old Purdue!
Our Friendship May She Never Lack.
Ever Grateful, Ever True,
Thus We Raise Our Song Anew;
Of The Days We've Spent With You,
All Hail Our Own Purdue!

Not A Chance?

So, what are the odds that our Boilermakers win on Saturday in Ann Arbor??? Well, let's look at some trends & stats as an early preview.

First, Tiller teams in October have been less-than-stellar. It's the only month that Tiller-coached Purdue teams hold a sub-.500 record throughout his career. Tiller teams have had multiple 0-4 Octobers, and coming into this season, many saw October as another as another colossal stretch.

Next, Tiller is 0-3 versus Michigan in Ann Arbor...the only reason it's not worse is because UM has already been off of the schedule for four of Tiller's eleven seasons. But, sadly, this problem is not one limited to just Tiller.

Mike Phipps, Scott Campbell, Mark Hermann, Jim Everett, Billy Dicken, Drew Brees & Kyle Orton (and many others) have all played...and lost against UM in the Big House...IN A ROW!!! Bob Griese is the last Purdue QB to lead Purdue to a victory on the road versus Michigan waaaaaaaaay back in 1966. Purdue's average margin of defeat in Ann Arbor during the last 41 years is a whopping 24.5 points (Tiller-coached teams have ONLY lost by an average of 23.7).

Before the season, I chalked this one up as an "L" for our Boilers...Typically Michigan's corners play a rugged bump-man coverage that makes Purdue receivers look like 10 year old girls at a dance recital. Conversely, Purdue corners usually give about a 1.5 mile cushion against the taller, stronger, faster UM wideouts and Michigan's future NFL quarterbacks have methodically picked their spots to the tune of 150-plus efficiency-rated games. Oh, yeah, Michigan has had good running backs too...good thing that's not the case this season.

But, this Michigan team is down, right? Lost to Appalachia State & Oregon...While they beat Notre Dame convincingly, they eeked out a W versus a not-that-great Penn State team, then beat Northwestern and Eastern Michigan in less-than-convincing fashion. So, they're not the same-old Maize and Blue, correct?

Boilerdowd disagrees. I'll be honest, there are very few things in college football that are more intimidating and awe-striking than Michigan coming out of the tunnel in the navy jerseys, maize pants and triple-striped helmets. I'm positive Tiller and Co. will probably give too much respect to the Wolverines during this week of preparation...heck, they might even receive a number-one vote after Saturday from Tiller. But what do we here at Boiled Sports think about this year's visit for our Boilers to a stadium that seats 107,000 plus? Check in Friday for the official prognostications.