Boilers Upended in Houston, 24-22

In yet another ugly performance, the Boilermakers found a way to lose a very winnable game in Houston today, falling to the Rice Owls 24-22 in front of 75 or so yawning fans. Seriously, if Purdue fans weren't there, they wouldn't have needed to open anything beyond the first row. But I digress. (Because, really, who wants to talk about that crapshow?)

This is my initial reaction to the game, so it could obviously change as I rewatch things, BUT.... I didn't think the players weren't ready and that's a victory in and of itself. But as I said leading up to this game, I felt the Boilers were excited about this one and were really looking forward to it. So the effort and focus appeared to be there to me.

I felt as though Caleb TerBush, while not brilliant, was adequate. He was 12/24 at one point in the second half and then went 6/7 to close the game at 18/31 for 183 and a TD, plus he rushed for another. Caleb did not turn the ball over -- in fact, Purdue had zero turnovers, yet had one takeaway as well as a defensive score (of sorts) as Joe Holland notched a safety for the Boilers.

Purdue -- interestingly -- had exactly as much on the ground as in the air: 183 of each, and outgained the Owls by 14 yards total (366-352). The Boilers had seven penalties for fifty yards -- not horrible, plus the penalties were not of the backbreaking variety.

So do you know what I'm getting at? Yes, that's right....coaching.

Sure, we've been told by many of you that it's unfair to judge the coaching with all the injuries Purdue has had to deal with in the past couple of years. And that's fine. But we've repeatedly said we will give a lot of leeway on that subject....what we do NOT have tolerance for as fans is poor schemes, poor clock management, poor crunch time decisions, etc. And this game finished up horridly and included all of that.

We'll get to the final possession in a moment. But how about Danny Hope's decision with a little over a minute to go in the third quarter and the Boilers down 24-17? Fourth and one at the Rice two....down seven with more than a quarter remaining, what do we do class? Yes, that's right, you kick the mother-effing field goal and take your three points, knowing you will get the ball back several more times. Unless Hope was afraid the Owls were going to go on a 15 minute drive, there is no excuse for this. None. I don't care if the defense said not to worry about it and I don't care that the Boiler defense then came through with the safety. That is NOT the point. This was a terrible, terrible, inexcusable decision. Purdue kicks the field goal there and it's 24-20 and you have Wiggs kicking the ball 80 yards off the tee. I like that situation.

On to the end of the game. Purdue made what looked like a wise decision with under four minutes to go in punting the ball back to Rice. The defense was stout and held the Owls, who then punted the ball back to Purdue and the Boilers were in business, starting from almost midfield.

Ralph Bolden then got the ball three straight times...and why not? He rushed it 35 yards on those three plays and the Boilers were down to the 17 yard line. And I actually loved these calls because, as I said, why not? Rice couldn't stop Bolden from running up first downs and not passing it means not getting intercepted. But then things got weird, man.

For starters, Bolden never touched the ball again. Was he tired? Did he make Nord mad? What the hell happened? Was he succeeding too much and the team was worried about hurting Rice's feelings? We'll probably never know. But Ralph was done.

On 2nd and 3 from the Rice 17, Caleb TerBush threw a nearly-lateral pass out to the left to OJ Ross and OJ was tackled for a loss. I dislike this call for many reasons...too many to detail, really. But if you're reading this, you have at least a passing interest in football and even someone with moderate football knowledge can list at least two or three things wrong with this call.

Then things got even more weird.

Shavers rushed for four yards and got the first down. Terrific news! And then, Caleb TerBush comes to the line.....and clocks the ball. Wait, what? Why would you do that? There was no shortage of time. Wouldn't you do this when you're about ready to kick the field goal and want to stop the clock so your kick team doesn't have to rush?

On 2nd and 10 from the Rice 14, Shavers is stuffed for a one yard loss. Now it's 3rd and 11 and Purdue has no time outs and just over 30 seconds to go. Well, that's certainly not good....oh, but Rice does Purdue a favor and gives Coach Hope time to think it over by calling a time out. Weird move on Rice's part, but this isn't a Rice site so who cares?

Purdue talks it over and, with 31 seconds left and third down and 11...and on the 14...I tell Coach Hope from my recliner, "Kick it on third down, Coach. Then, if there's a...oh, I don't know...bad snap, for instance...you can fall on it and kick it on fourth down."

But you know as well as I do that logic and good game/clock management is not something this coaching staff has in suite of tools. So they elect to run a play on third down with 31 seconds to go and no time outs. And what's that play? A one-yard rush from Shavers to make it fourth down and, of course, NOT stop the clock.

And as you saw, Purdue had a bad snap, Carson's FG attempt was blocked and the Rice Owls celebrated a win over a team that should easily have won this game. No matter what you thought of the rest of the game, Purdue had this game in the bag on that last drive and weirdly decided to get conservative, scared or whatever you want to call it. I just don't get it. But I will say the following are horrible coaching decisions from this one:

1) Going for it on fourth down in the third quarter instead of taking the gimme field goal.
2) Not using Bolden after he shredded the Rice D on three straight plays on the final drive.
3) Clocking the ball on first and ten from the Rice 14.
4) Not kicking the FG on third down.
5) Once they decided NOT to kick it on third down, calling a chickensh-t run play with no time outs left.

Obviously, if I wanted to parse out all the plays in the game, I'm sure this list would be longer. But I don't have the stomach for that right now.

Purdue football, you may not have 100,000 in stadiums you play in, but you DO have some serious loyalists. Many people traveled to Houston for this game, eager to show their love for Purdue. There was tremendous excitement on Twitter, Facebook, etc. This excitement is waning for some and will begin to erode for others. Performances like this, in my opinion, are not excusable. I've said it before -- road games are difficult to win. But I'm not talking about this game as a win or loss -- the players demonstrated that they were prepared to win it. It was terrible coaching that seriously hindered that effort. A team like this Purdue one simply cannot overcome obstacles like poor coaching and bad decision making from the leaders. They need strong coaching and above-average guidance to have success. That simply isn't happening and hasn't for a while now.

And that, I am getting tired of seeing over and over.

Predicto - Purdue vs THE Rice University

Let's see if we can do better this week for you vultures!

It's predicto time.....RIGHT NOW.

Thuff:

Purdue travels to Texas, the state with the fourth most Purdue Alumni, to play Rice. Rice is a team that recently matches our struggles - with only 3 winning seasons in this millennium. This being said, they didn't pay us $250,000 to stomp their faces into their own dirt. Rice will come out swinging, fortunately, I don't see them getting much done on the ground this week. The secondary has grown up a little bit this year as well, but some early bombs may end up leaving us going into the locker room behind. TerBush has had a taste of victory, chances are good in my mind that the entire offense wants to prove something on the road. Bolden blew up against Oregon in '09 and I'd like to think that will happen this Saturday. He'll record the first score with TerBush spreading the field keeping Rice on their toes. This will likely be late in the second; we still need that first quarter gel time. Halftime Score 10 - 17 Rice

The second half will be more consistent and TerBush will find a rhythm to keep the ball moving and sneak into the endzone once or twice (thrown, both). Rice won't have the fight after the third; they've just lost too many games in the last two years. Robinson will get late snaps; Wiggs may get a late 'Just for fun' field goal to set the record, but Purdue will walk away from Houston the victors, 28 to 17.

J Money:

Last weekend's prediction was a crappy feeling for a loyalist like me. Feeling bad about the outlook and then seeing it play out exactly as I expected was lousy, but the best possible result happened -- I was wrong, in the end. Unfortunately for those who believe in reverse-mojo, I am not picking the Boilers to lose again this week.

I've said all along that I thought they'd have trouble in one of these early games and I felt it would be MTSU -- and they did have trouble. But unlike a lot of times in recent years, they were able to overcome the troubles and produce a victory. I think the Danny Hope teams tend to set their sights on an early-season matchup and sort of build towards that goal. His first year, I think it was the trip to Oregon. The second year it was the opening game versus ND. And it both instances, when those wound up being crushing defeats, the team demonstrated how their souls and will had been damaged. I think this Rice game is potentially that game for 2011. I think Hope has been talking about this road trip with the understanding of how big road wins can be for a team, and knowing what a significant contingent of Boilers will be there to cheer on his guys. In fact, it's very possible that the Boiler faithful will own a road stadium -- how often can you say that?

Purdue could very easily lose this game. Rice is not the pushover they once were, though they are a beatable team. If the Boilers do not show progress from last week and exhibit some of the same jitters, it could be troublesome. However, I'm going to be optimistic this week and say that I think that last drive may have done wonders for Caleb TerBush's confidence and that we'll see that on display in Houston tomorrow.

Purdue should be able to control the ground game, severelly limit Rice's ability to throw the ball, and control the trenches. Those are some really basic and time-tested keys to victory, and I think they will carry the day tomorrow.

Boilermakers 28
Owls 13

Tim:

It's going to be another hot one at Rice. Maybe Purdue can wear black pants in addition to last week's black jerseys. That way the triple digit temps will be sure to impact them as much as possible. As for the jerseys, though, as long as they don't go Darth Vader or Princess Leia (white jerseys and white pants), I'll be happy. (May want to avert your eyes, then. Rumor percolating that the white on white may be happening. -- J)

The game will come down to turnovers (mmmmm, turnovers -- J). Whichever team holds on to the ball better will win. Rice hung in with Texas last week until the 4th quarter, though it was a Texas team that went 5-7 last year. Texas was able to rush for 229 yards last week. Bolden and Shavers should help the Boilermakers running game have similar success. TerBush just needs to manage the game and let the running game do its thing. The lack of defensive pressure on the QB is a concern, among other things, but I don't think Rice's QB Taylor McHargue is going to light the world on fire so that should help. I'm hoping that it was a combination of the heat last week and the fact that The MTSU is a repeat bowler. That said, I don't have a lot of confidence this week. There's definite positves, but it's been a while since Purdue has been able to use those positives without also shooting themselves in the foot.

Purdue 27
THE Rice University 24

boilerdowd:

If you look at Rice's stat sheet from their game v. Texas last week, it almost looks incomplete- 224 total yards, 130 yards rushing, 94 yards passing, only 5 penalties and 9 points (on three field goals) in the entire game. Actually, those 9 points came entirely in the first half...as Rice hung tough with Texas for a half 13-9.

TerBush had nearly the same amount of yards passing in the fourth quarter as the Owls did in their first contest...but Purdue was playing MTSU and Rice was playing Texas. Sure, Texas is coming off of an awful season, but they still have horses in the stable...and stats only tell so much, especially in the first game.

It takes time for offense to get in sync...and Purdue's looked completely out of sync for most of last Saturday's game. Rice never got into a rhythm, but they were missing the most-important part of their offense, former UM RB, McGuffie, who led the Owls in both rushing and receiving in '10, for most of the game. His knee injury doesn't sound like it'll allow him to play at full strength, if at all this week against Purdue...but look for him to be seen in a Wildcat formation. Rice sacked Texas' QB twice last week, and on the other side of the ball didn't allow Texas to get to their quarterback, McHarque. Like Purdue, Rice killed itself with a few key penalties when in scoring position last week.

Rice's team, coaches and fans are confident that Purdue and Rice are even from a talent standpoint, so it's really going to come down to execution.

Will Purdue's offense look like it did in the fourth quarter, or most of the rest of the game? Will Purdue's defense be willing to make adjustments or stay with something that wasn't very effective (like we saw last week)?

Marve has been taking more snaps in practice, so he might be #2 on the depth chart by kickoff...but I think TerBush will see most of the snaps. To win, Purdue's gotta play better up front on both sides of the ball- the OL needs to get rid of false start penalties and know its assignments and the DL has to generate a pass rush and a push.

This one bothered me coming into the season, and last week didn't change my mind. With two offenses that don't have much of an identity, it could be a rock fight.

Go prove me wrong, Boilers.

Rice 20

Purdue 17

To Your Call Once More We Rally;
Alma Mater Hear Our Praise.
Where The Wabash Spreads Its Valley;
Filled With Joy Our Voices Raise.
From The Skies In Swelling Echoes
Come The Cheers That Tell The Tale
Of Your Vict'ries And Your Heros,
Hail Purdue! We Sing All Hail!

Hail, Hail To Old Purdue!
All Hail To Our Old Gold And Black!
Hail, Hail To Old Purdue!
Our Friendship May She Never Lack.
Ever Grateful, Ever True,
Thus We Raise Our Song Anew;
Of The Days We've Spent With You,
All Hail Our Own Purdue!