Too hard to hide a 14 or 16 in the words "Big Ten"Everybody's weighed in on this from bloggers to the big gorillas of the sports media world: What will BT be?
Who knows exactly what it'll be, but I can tell you what I'd like it to be: Simple, quick and smart.
I believe the world, and specifically, the sports world is dominated by people who are almost the opposite of me. They seem to neglect longevity and stability for a quick payoff. But, the Big Ten is the oldest conference in the land for a lot of reasons. One is it has been stable, deliberate and generally smart with the way it's grown and progressed. Sure, the old-fashioned nature of the league is sometimes infuriating, but let's look at the opposite approach: The Big East.
The Big East basketball conference went after a sizable splash a few years ago when it expanded to 16 teams. EsPN and much of the media loved the move as they lauded this conference as the strongest basketball conference that had ever been created. But, on the eve of Delany and Company's big move, many are grumbling that the Big East as we all know it might be going the way Hummer brand. Can't say I'm upset about it, but the ramifications of this mega conference folding are large.
Sports Illustrated and other sources believe that in once scenario, the Mega Conference will become the standard. The conspiracy theorist in me believes there's some merit in this idea. The NCAA infuriates me at times with their uneven hand, foolish rules and knee jerk reactions. But, I don't think throwing away the NCAA is the right approach. There's not doubt, a few changes need to be made by college sports' governing body, but circumventing the NCAA all-together simply won't work, in my opinion. Plus, four 16-team conferences leaves quite a few good programs on the outside looking in.
Here's some background to why I think the Big Ten needs to not act like a cowboy in this scenario. First off, the super-expansion scenarios for the conference almost-all include Notre Dame. I was sick and tired of kissing their ass years ago...so going back to that well makes no sense to this hombre. Everytime there are hints about UND being involved, the Swarbrick and Co. make sure to reply that they're not interested. For all I care, they can become a one-team conference that has their own set of rules...Oh wait...
The second problem with the mega-expansion, in my opinion, is that it doesn't stay true to the roots of the BT. From academics to athletics, Big Ten schools (probably minus Northwestern) have a certain feel to them...and I don't think schools like Rutgers (on one end) and Nebraska (on the other) fit that mold.
Pitt just makes senseMy solution, not unlike many others out there, fulfills a number of needs, in my opinion, and simply makes sense. Add Pitt to make the league a 12-team conference. Pitt meets the research university requirements that Delany's been talking about for months. Their facilities are on par with the other eleven teams (if not better). Their two big money-making sports generate a ton of revenue and have large, loyal fan bases. The Panthers help Penn State off of the Northeast island they're on by re-creating the old rivalry and fitting within the footprint of the current conference. Plus, this will help the strength of the BTN in the northeast as it continues to attempt to gain market share.
I think some of the same arguments can be made for Missouri...but I don't the arguments are quite as strong...so why not seek out the best-fit?
Our poll showed that most of you agree with the least-aggressive expansion plan. That's good...because it'd be pretty hard to hide a 14 or 16 in the words "Big Ten".
The conference divisions might fall into place like this:
North
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Iowa
Northwestern
Michigan State
Michigan
South
Illinois
Purdue
IU
aOSU
Pitt
Penn State
During football season, each program would be able to protect one game. This would keep rivalries like UM/aOSU alive and well. For basketball, I don't think there would be any reason or benefit to having the divisional barrier.
Sure, this is all theorizing and blue sky thinking...and not worth much at all. But to me, and many of you, a 12-team conference makes the most sense, from a number of perspectives.
So What's Going to Really Happen?
I don't think anyone outside of the conference offices really knows what's going to happen. But, I don't think Delany has his eyes set on tradition or solid, small-step growth.
My gut tells me Pitt will be a part of the plan, but I think the conference will end up being a 14-team league. The additions might be: Pitt, Rutgers and Missouri.
I think we'll not have any more reason to theorize as a new reality is upon us by mid-summer.
16 comments:
The NCAA doesn't actually control the makeup of the conferences. They "govern around the fringes", meaning they set rules and regulations that each member conference (and in effect, each school) has to adhere to when it comes to academics, player wellness (how injuries are treated, how much time schools are allowed to force a student to practice, drug violations...) etc... But while they might have some influence, the NCAA has no actual control over how conferences are composed.
I will be sad if the Big 10 decides to expand. I think we should contract, and make Northwestern go away.
IG and 16 look a lot a like. You could probably work with that.
Impossible, Eric.
I wouldn't mind a North/South split for basketball, making sure you play the teams in your division twice and the other division will be where you play a team 1 time during conference play. The bigger the conference, the fewer times you can play a team (read: rival) twice.
But, yes, this is all speculation.
I could live with 14, but hoping you're not right about Rutgers. I could live without them in our conference. Pitt is probably a good fit for the Big Ten.
As always, love reading your thoughts!
Tea leaves tell us Rutgers might be a solid candidate:
-Highly-rated research university
-Not in BT country (Delany keeps repeating this)
-Automatically spreads BTN into NY market
All that said, I'm not for their addition...I'm with you.
Definitely agree that Rutgers doesn't fit the Big Ten mold, but I have to say that Nebraska couldn't be more Big Ten. A major university in a state well known for agriculture? I'm not sure of their academic standards, but on the face of it, they wouldn't be sticking out like a sore thumb.
So long as expansion can promise us two basketball games against IU every season and protect the OSU/Michigan football game, I'll back the plan.
ND, Texas, Missouri, and Nebraska are better choices than Pitt for reasons that have been discussed ad nauseum. Pitt doesn't bring a new market to the BTN.
If the Big Ten 10 is to become a 14 school conference, let's not forget Iowa State, a school that seems geographically out of place in the current Big 12, but who fit squarely in the B10's footprint. Granted, Ames isn't exactly a prime demographic target or a hot TV market, but the Cyclones have a good athletic tradition in non-revenue sports (2007, 2008 & 2009 NCAA Wrestling champs), and both their hoops and pigskin teams are showing signs of a pulse. Beyond athletics, ISU has a strong academic reputation and is a top research institution.
No, these guys wouldn't be my first choice. But It would be an intriguing 3rd choice with Pitt and Mizzou in the fold of the new conference-- besides the Hawkeyes, Iowa State's other rival is the Missouri Tigers.
A 12 team league seems the most sensable to me; not that anyone has asked me. I would rather see Missouri as the last team than Pitt. Additionally, an East-West breakdown I believe would be better.
East West
Penn ST. Minnesota
aOSU Iowa
IU Missouri
Mich. Illinois
Mich ST. Wisconsin
Purdue Northwestern
boxercr-
You really want to be in a football division with us, OSU, Michigan and Penn State? While the other division powerhouses would be Wisco, Iowa and Illinois?
No thanks.
At first glance, I'm not sure a divisional alignment that separates Michigan and Ohio State would be popular. Thinking about it more, though, that's probably how a 12-team conference would have to be split.
It's better for the conference if the teams most likely to contend (UM, OSU, Penn State, maybe Wisconsin now) are split somewhat evenly both in terms of recent success and television draws. An East/West split with UM, OSU, and PSU in the same division would ensure you'd never get two from that group in the championship game. (Hey, that's how the ACC did it, right?) Still, it looks odd to keep all the major rivalries divisional except UM-OSU.
One benefit to splitting into divisions is that it might possibly give an edge to bubble teams, especially if one division is stronger than the other in a given season. Illinois' resume might sound a touch better if they were third in the South rather than sixth in the conference. (I doubt it would make much difference, but hey, if it's enough to get one extra team in, that's a little more money for all of us.)
Of course if there is an imbalance in one season between the divisions, then the conference tournament starts getting weird, with maybe a 9-7 team getting a first-round bye and an 11-5 team having to play on Thursday.
Expat, I think the only way Iowa State would be asked would be as part of a package (say, with Missouri, as you suggested), and even then, I think it's more likely if one of the other teams is a much bigger draw (Nebraska or Texas). Iowa State certainly seems to fit the academic profile (AAU member), they're probably one of the easiest schools to get (I doubt they'd have any problem leaving the Big 12), and their overall athletics program is pretty decent, even if they might not add as much to the two money sports as, say, a Pitt or Syracuse would, but what they aren't is a TV draw. If the expansion is made with financial returns in mind, I don't think Iowa State is in the picture.
If the presidents and Delany are playing it conservatively, I'd expect Missouri or Pitt (sadly, I think they still want Notre Dame, please let Swarbrick stick to his guns, we don't need them).
If they go for a larger expansion, I think it's more likely they'd break off teams from the same conference if the Big Ten moves first. It would be easier to work out that way; if, say, they tried to get Pitt, Rutgers, and Missouri, then if the Big 12 makes a fuss and Missouri backs out, you've got a 13-team conference again and you have to go to your backup choices, while at the same time other conferences are making moves too. If it's just with one conference, you're pretty much going to get all or none, I'd think.
I would rather have that chunk come from the Big 12 myself, if only so the Big Ten can take whoever they want and lift a giant finger to ESPN and the rest of the talking heads. (Come make fun us of now.) I just don't think there are teams in the Big East that could match Texas or Nebraska. Yeah, the Cornhuskers have fallen on hard times recently, but have you been to Nebraska? If you say "football", 80,000 people say "where and when?" (No, really. Apparently Memorial Stadium has been sold out for every game since 1962.) Guaranteed ticket sales. Sold-out conference road games.
Yeah, that means money, and I fear that will be the main driver. If it ends up being something crazy like Nebraska/Rutgers/Syracuse (or even wilder still, say those three plus Missouri and Pitt), you'll know it was $$$$.
If it's going to be 16, then give us Texas. Athletics, academics, millions of people to watch BTN games, and again a big finger to the other conferences. You wanted them, yeah, but we got them.
And Notre Dame can suck it.
Big Ten will only expand if said team can add profit to the league. No weak market school such as Iowa State we be selected to share the x million dollars.
Big Ten would gain the most profit in taking in Texas teams (A&M and Texas) and possibly either a Syracuse or Rutgers for the east coast for 14. On the other side of the coin Missouri might as well be plucked from the big 12 and be placed in the mix as well for a market growth of 35 million viewers.
Having a football conference with more than 12 teams isn't feasible in my opinion. There currently is not a football conference with more than 12. Each of those conferences have a conference tournament. How would it work with a 16 team football conference? Play each team in your eight team division once then one of the other division opponents once every eight years? Hardly seems like they would be in your conference at all.
I hope that the Big Ten focuses on having the same teams in the same conference for every sport is important. Not like the current Big East basketball conference that has Big East football schools, a CAA football school, a Patriot League football school, an independent football school, and five teams that do not have a football program at all.
I've seen a lot of 16-team schedule proposals. I think the most likely to be adopted would be a 9-game conference schedule, 7 within your division and 2 in the other division. Regardless of how they do it, it wouldn't be a conference like we have today. Even with 12 teams, you aren't going to have that same association with every team. (Part of that is scheduling and part is expansion: no matter who it is, they'll be more like Penn State than Michigan State.)
The Big East arrangement is weird, which is probably why people are predicting that the conference as it exists won't survive a strong wave of expansion. I'd be almost certain that whatever teams are invited to join the Big Ten will be invited in all sports possible. (25 sports, yo. I had no idea. Of course not all schools play all those sports at the varsity level.)
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