By the Numbers: Memory Lane

Guess Iowa decided they were done, eh?

In 1986, I was a freshman at Purdue. My first year as a Purdue fan ended with the #6 Boilers playing a road game at #11 LSU ... neutral courts, ha ha. (Sure, LSU made the Final Four that year, and they had to beat Georgia Tech in Atlanta ... but still.) I didn't care as much about the tournament then as I do now, or else I might have paid more attention to a Louisville squad that knocked off Dale Brown's Tigers and held off a tenacious Duke squad to win their second title under Denny Crum. It would be their last trip to the championship game ... until 2013. (That Duke squad was coached by this Krzyzewski character - it was his first trip to the Final Four. Yes, I was watching basketball when Duke was the underdog.)

In 1989, I was a senior for the first time. (I liked being a senior, so I did a couple extra senior years. Those were fun times.) Bill Frieder made one of the dumbest job decisions in sports history, and Steve Fisher ended up winning the first six games of his Michigan coaching career. (He lost game #7, the 1989-90 season opener against Arizona.) A 65% free-throw shooter hit a pair of shots in overtime, and as a last-second prayer banged harmlessly off the backboard (I remember the shooter as Andrew Gaze, but that's not correct), the Wolverines captured their first NCAA title. It would be their last official trip to the championship game ... until 2013.

The two teams won their national semifinals in completely different fashion. Michigan never trailed Syracuse by more than five points, and when Caris LeVert hit a three at the 9:04 mark in the first half, the Wolverines had a lead they would hold the rest of the way. In contrast, Louisville started the game with a five-minute scoreless stretch, trailing Wichita State 8-0, led by no more than three in the first half, and was down 12 with 13 minutes to play ... the Cardinals didn't take the lead again until the 6:31 mark in the second half, and didn't hold it for good until Chane Behanan's tip with 3:03 left. Russ Smith led Louisville with 21, but had 5 turnovers and was 5-12 from the line; Trey Burke had just 7, but was charged with only a single turnover (and was third on the team in assists).

Monday

9:23 PM, #4 Michigan vs. #1 Louisville (-5), NCAA Final

• It's strength against strength, as the #1 offense (Michigan, 121.7) faces the #1 defense (Louisville, 82.4). Michigan leads the country in turnover percentage (14.5% on offense), and Louisville forces the second-most turnovers (27.3%) ... only VCU forced more (28.5%). The Rams forced 12 in their second-round loss to Michigan.
• A potential weakness for the Cardinals at that end of the floor is rebounding: Louisville allows 33.3% OReb (242nd), and while Michigan's overall numbers aren't great (32.5%, 139th), with the exception of the Florida game, the Wolverines have crashed the offensive glass well in tournament play.
• At the other end, Louisville has a slight advantage, as their offense (118.0, 5th) is better than Michigan's defense (91.6, 32nd). They usually rebound very well (38.1 OReb%, 17th), but Michigan also rebounds well (29.0% OReb allowed, 63rd), and although Louisville draws a lot of fouls (40.0 FTA/FGA, 68th), led by Smith (6.8 FD/40, 16th in NCAA), Michigan fouls less often than any other NCAA team (22.2 FTA/FGA). 
• A potential weakness for the Wolverines is two-point defense: Louisville hits 51.0% (44th), and Michigan allows a slightly-above-average 47.7% (182nd). This actually plays into the Cardinals' hands, because they don't shoot threes well at all (32.9%, 216th).
• Neither team goes deep into their bench: Michigan gives their bench only 20.3% of available minutes (334th), and while Louisville's percentage is normally higher (32.1%, 131st), a good bit of that was Kevin Ware (39.9% of available minutes), so if I understand correctly, that leaves Louisville at about 24.1%.
• Louisville's last loss in regulation was 53-51 at Georgetown. They shot just 3-11 from three and let the Hoyas grab 11 offensive rebounds (.355). Markel Starks and Otto Porter scored 17 apiece to lead Georgetown: Starks was 6-12 from two while Porter was 2-5 from three and 5-6 from the line.
• Michigan's last loss in regulation was 68-59 vs. Wisconsin in Chicago. The Wolverines were just 3-13 from three and hit just 10-17 from the line, while Wisconsin hit 8-22 from three. Ben Brust (of regular-season half-court heave fame) hit 4-7 as part of his 14 points; Traevon Jackson was 7-8 from the line in a 16-point performance.
• In a close game, look for teams to put Mitch McGary (.457) or Chane Behanan (.527) on the line. If you see Nik Stauskas (.851) or Peyton Siva (.860) there, the wrong guy's doing the fouling.
• A Louisville win will likely be keyed by turnovers and penetration, particularly if Smith can get McGary in foul trouble. The freshman has played a key role in Michigan's offensive resurgence, and if he spends time on the bench, Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford are unlikely to contribute at that level. Even without drawing fouls, Louisville can bury teams simply by forcing turnovers and getting easy baskets; twos don't add up as fast as threes, but it doesn't matter much if you string enough of them together.
• A Michigan win will likely come from an early first-half run that builds a lead Louisville can't overcome. With the exception of the Kansas game, Michigan has buried their NCAA opponents early: in addition to Syracuse, they led Florida wire-to-wire, led VCU from the 19:25 mark in the first half, and put away South Dakota State at the 5:45 mark in the first half. Burke, Stauskas, and Tim Hardaway Jr. all hit .381 or better from three-point range; if any of them gets hot, the Cardinals (now led by Luke Hancock's .372) aren't built to outscore that kind of offense having that kind of night.

Louisville Lessons and Looking Ahead

Purdue's team in '12-'13 was tough to watch for a myriad of reasons.  It's funny, when you wade into the murky waters of message boards and just listen (read) you'll hear Purdue fans admonish others for not grinning and bearing it while ignoring the awful brand of basketball our Boilers played this season. You'll hear others, on the opposite end of the spectrum, act as if the world has come to an end because of Purdue's sub-par, fundamentally-unsound season.

I think the BS staff falls into the middle.  We like good basketball...and like most Purdue fans, we really like good defense, and there's there's the rub.  Purdue's defense was generally bad this season...granted there were a few flashes of the old Purdue, but those flashes were fleeting at best.

Atop of that, Purdue's offense was painful to watch. Watching back-to-back games, as many of us did this March showed just how bad Purdue was on offense.  My wife noted when watching IU and Michigan play, that it looked like those two teams played a different sport than did Purdue this year...and really, they did.  They were fast, spread the floor out and had the option to score from about anywhere. Good shooting creates space...shooters like Hulls and Stauskas force defenses to respect a team to 25 feet...and athletes like Oladipo and Hardaway slash teams and push the pace.  Purdue looked slow and unathletic for stretches of the season while they made fewer three pointers than any Purdue team in the last 25 seasons.  Not a good combo.

Now, let's contrast this with the number one overall seed of the tournament, Louisville.

They play stifling defense that mentally and physically wears out opponents.  They have two very experienced guards in Siva and Smith that make good decisions, can score and make their teammates better...and they are experienced as a team.  One Freshman on the Cardinals played 16.5 minutes...two others played around 3 minutes/game.  With experience comes understanding of a system...and this is one of Louisville's biggest advantages- the players buy in to the system and play hard.  But, that's not why Louisville is great, in my opinion...They're great because of their chemistry, and I'd argue that their chemistry is great because of great leadership.

I posted a video on Twitter of Kevin Ware's interview yesterday in which he detailed what happened just after the gruesome break to his leg. He said he looked at Pitino, who was just feet away...and the coach looked sickened. He said that he thought he had only hurt his ankle...but when he looked down, saw something completely different.

Some of his teammates reacted in horror; I would have acted like them. A few of them threw up...but a couple of the upper classman came and just started talking to him.  And most importantly, Ware acted selflessly.

When he saw that he had a compound fracture, he knew the injury could hurt the team...but instead, the Sophomore said he quickly tried to change the focus with his teammates. He told them he'd be alright and they needed to go out and win the game.  That might seem like a big deal or may just seem like athlete speak...but I think it's indicative of Louisville's focus as a team.  This is why they're great.

When you look at Louisville's roster on paper, you don't see horses like Kentucky, Duke or North Carolina. They're actually pretty similar to UM and IU; the three and four star guys do the lion's share of the work and they all know their role.  But, everything with Louisville is clicking right now (much like Michigan, actually).  And one more thing, Louisville has Pitino at the helm; that doesn't hurt.

Make now mistake, I'm no fan of Pitino. I think he's nearly-impossible to like and root for because of his scandalous past and the fact that he's actually been found guilty of major NCAA violations...once a cheater, always a cheater. But it's tough to deny how good of an in-game coach he is...and his tournament record is crazy good.

Now let's flip back to the reason you come to this site- what's this have to do with Purdue? Well, other programs' successes as well as Purdue's failures should both teach us a lot.

Above, I talked about how Louisville doesn't have to rely on Freshman for many minutes...that surely wasn't the case this season for Purdue.  Purdue had Freshmen that averaged 19, 23 and 31 minutes...that's a lot to ask of guys in their first year at this level.  31 minutes specifically from a Freshman point guard is Herculean. Relying heavily on Freshman and having a Freshman point guard generally leads to inconsistency, inability to win close games down the stretch and an inability to compete with physically and mentally mature teams...things we saw from this Purdue team this year.  This chart shows Purdue's inconsistency.

College Basketball Stats

Louisville's leadership, cohesiveness, talent and focus on a common goal are obvious, when you watch them play...in the same way, Purdue's issues were obvious.  There is hope for Purdue's future, in my opinion, but it's tempered.

Ryne Smith talked to us on the Handsome Hour a few weeks ago about the importance of losing a leader like Rob Hummel...and sadly for Purdue, I'm not sure if I see another leader like that on the roster right now; leadership is something some guys just have, but very few guys lead teams as Freshman or Sophomores. Next year, the team will be TJohn's.  Not a bad guy to have as the leader...but leaders need to be consistent and set a precedent of doing things the right way all the time. Johnson is a capable scorer and solid defender, at times.  In order for Purdue to make a huge jump next season, it'll take TJohn making a quantum leap forward in his consistency.

Next, leaders need good followers...this is something Purdue might do better in '14, simply because so many of the key contributors are a year older. Players like RonJohn, RayDay and Hammons are the key here. If these three guys can develop on the off-season, Purdue can be solid...and Purdue can get 10-15 minutes of solid contribution from two of the incoming Freshman as well as Simpson, the rotation will be better than what we saw this season.

The biggest questions about next years team though are still yet to have been answered. GBI has all but assured Purdue fans that there will be multiple transfers this off-season.  Will it be two or three players and which ones will it be? A few seasons ago when Lutz, Vandervieren, Uchendu, Watt, Spates and Minnoy all transferred in a two year period...that's a ton of attrition.  But, none of the guys were fitting, for one reason or another. It's pretty clear that there were a few square pegs in round holes this season...some of that is because of youth, but some of it isn't.

Watching Louisville in March and IU in February this season, you could see two teams that had a bunch of guys with their focus in the right place.  Until Purdue has a bunch of like-minded guys, success will be limited.  That's a simple fact.

Regardless of whom (if anyone) decides to leave in the next few weeks, Painter will have his work cut out for him in the off-season.  I've heard as many as five different names rumored to be looking to find greener pastures next fall.  The problem with these rumors is I can only find a solid root on one of those (Marcius' request for release) but think a few of the others seem to be logical based on what I saw with my own two eyes during games this season in Mackey.  My hope is that everyone returns with a better attitude...but if guys aren't willing to work, they should head elsewhere; it'd be better for all parties.

Back to Coach Painter for a minute. I've heard some say that 2013-2014 is a make-or-break season for him.  The problem with this idea is no one really knows what the breaking point is in this equation.  I think another sub .500 season would be unacceptable; I actually thought this team should have been better than .500 in '12/'13.  What I believe is a coach with his resume and his contract simply should not average 15 losses a season (which he has over the last two years).  But most-importantly, I'm confident that next season will be much different.  I do know that many of you who visit this site disagree with me on this opinion.  I guess we can debate this until next fall.

Does Any of this matter in 2014?
Last night, Iowa got crushed in the championship of the NIT by Baylor. Unlike Penn State's fanbase a few seasons ago, Iowa fans didn't seem to catch NIT fever...but I think they thought the NIT was a positive for the team (at least until last night).

The question often asked by fans is how does a blowout loss in the NIT championship affect the team the next year? Or how does a defeat at the hands of might Santa Clara at home in the CBI affect a team the following season?  Would Iowa had been better had they edged into the dance and lost in the first round? Would Purdue had been better had they not been invited to the CBI?

The truth is, there's no formula.  Some NIT teams come back stronger the next season, others return to the NIT...some CBI stay mired in mediocrity, others are ranked next year.

Painter wanted the team to play because he thinks basketball teams should play basketball and want to play basketball. As it turns out, many of Purdue's players looked like they didn't want to be there.

What really matters for Purdue as they prepare for next season is if these guys are competitors, if they want to play with the guys who are their teammates and if they buy in to the coach's philosophy.

Screw Conference Loyalty, Everyman for Himself.
As UM and Wisconsin lose three starters and IU potentially loses four, Purdue and Iowa will only lose one player in their 8-man rotation.  The problem is, the same can be said for MSU and aOSU.  The B1G will still be the best-coached conference in the nation in 2014 in spite of two rookie coaches taking over at Minny and Northwestern.  It gets no easier for our Boilers in '14 as the conference will once again be the best in the nation.

By the Numbers: Final Fours

So the men's season is mercifully over, the women lost a road game to a team that's currently in the Final Four after knocking off one of the best teams in women's tournament history, and the CIT is going to crown East Carolina or Weber State champions, which means either 20 minutes of pirate jokes or a discussion of pronunciation (it's a long e).

In the meantime, two Big Ten teams keep chugging along, trying to pull off the first NCAA-NIT double in the conference since 1979 (and the first overall since Florida and South Carolina won the tournaments in 2006).

Thursday

9:00 PM, #3 Iowa (-3) vs. #2 Baylor, NIT Championship

• Iowa's recorded four consecutive double-digit victories, the most recent being their 71-60 semifinal win over Maryland Tuesday night in New York. Baylor has had much more varied results, from a 46-point blowout of Long Beach State in their opener to a 3-point win over Arizona State in the round of 16. (Baylor was home for the first three rounds; Iowa had two home games and a road game at Virginia.)
• The Bears' strength is not their defense, as evidenced by the 86 points they gave up to the Sun Devils. They don't force turnovers (18.8%, 241st) and don't box out particularly well (32.6% OReb allowed, 201st), but do a reasonable job of lowering opponents' eFG (46.3%, 77th), partly from defending twos at a passable rate (45.2%, 82nd). This is kind of important, given Iowa's general inability to hit from outside.
• Iowa beat Maryland by forcing turnovers (17 to 8 of their own) and hitting free throws (19-24 vs. 9-16 for the Terrapins), but defensive rebounding was a problem (17 offensive rebounds for Maryland, .425). Baylor's not nearly as good at hitting the offensive glass (33.7 OReb%, 101st), and they don't hit twos as well (50.8%, 47th), but with turnovers not being nearly as much of a problem for the Bears (17.2%, 31st), Iowa may have to hope that someone gets hot from outside to build the Hawkeyes a lead; Baylor doesn't have weaknesses that match up particularly well with Iowa's strengths.

Saturday

8:49 PM, #4 Michigan (-1) vs. #4 Syracuse, NCAA semifinal

• After destroying Florida in the South Regional final, the Wolverines draw the matchup challenge that is the Syracuse zone, the same defense that turned Indiana and Marquette into intramural offenses. Marquette hadn't even allowed as few as 39 points since before Buzz Williams arrived (did you know Tom Crean's Eagles scheduled Florida Gulf Coast in 2008 and beat them 67-37? Insert joke here), and Indiana hadn't scored as few as 50 since last year's loss at Wisconsin (of course).
• The Orange are very efficient on offense, at least as non-Michigan teams go (113.2, 21st), primarily from attacking the offensive boards (39.0%, 8th). They aren't particularly accurate, though, so if Michigan continues to control the defensive glass (SDSU had the highest OReb against them in tournament play, .276), Syracuse will struggle to keep pace with Michigan ...
• ... assuming their offense continues to thrive. Now with the top offense in basketball (121.9), Michigan's strengths line up with Syracuse's defensive strengths: eFG% (Michigan 54.6%, 11th; Syracuse 42.5% allowed, 4th) and turnovers (Michigan 14.5%, 1st; Syracuse 23.6% forced, 19th). The Orange do not rebound well (34.3% OReb allowed, 279th), a problem you'd expect a zone to have, so expect Mitch McGary to continue to put up MVP-like numbers (16.1 OReb%, 9th).
• Rakeem Christmas is barely a contributor at the offensive end (13.9% of shots taken, hasn't hit double digits since Feb 4 against Notre Dame), so McGary should win this post matchup as he has the last four (most recent: Florida's Erik Murphy, 0 points, 8 rebounds in 22 minutes), but it won't mean much.
• Syracuse's last loss came at the hands of Louisville, mostly thanks to Michael Carter-Williams fouling out and to 20 turnovers forced by the Cardinals. Michigan's defense isn't anything like Louisville's, so the Wolverines likely won't win that way ...
• ... but before that, Georgetown beat Syracuse in the regular-season finale by 22, holding the Orange to 1-11 from three-point range and hitting 9-22 themselves. Given Nik Stauskas' reunion with accuracy, this is a much more likely recipe for a Michigan meeting with Wichita State or Louisville on Monday.

By the Numbers: NCAA Regional Finals

Maryland and Iowa patiently wait for their future and current partners to join them in a separate dance. There will be no reprise of the last time the Midwest Regionals were held in Indianapolis, as Seth Curry never gave the Spartans a chance to meet Louisville, and of course we've discussed the wonders of zone defense here already.

Saturday

7:05 PM, #2 Ohio State (-5) vs. #9 Wichita State, NCAA

• Ohio State did very well on the boards against Arizona (11 OReb, .344), kept the Wildcats in check from outside (6-18), and provided plenty of help for Deshaun Thomas (LaQuinton Ross with 17, Aaron Craft with 13, Sam Thompson with 11). Wichita State is also a good rebounding team (38.1%, 17th on offense; 26.2% allowed, 11th on defense), so the Buckeyes will need a similar rebounding effort tonight.
• Perimeter defense won't be as important, though, as the Shockers are merely average from beyond the arc (33.8%, 171st). They were just 2-20 vs. Pitt and 5-12 vs. La Salle. (Gonzaga gave up 14 threes, though ...)
• Wichita State also is not a great free-throw shooting team, shooting just .695 from the line (174th). Among their starters, Carl Hall is a 2-for-3 guy (104-156), and Tekele Cotton hits just .541 (40-74). 
• What the Shockers do bring is bench depth (37.3% of minutes, 45th). Eleven guys get 10% or more of available minutes, so even though Wichita State doesn't use them to push tempo (they're slightly faster than OSU, 64.9 to 64.7), Gregg Marshall will have fresh defenders on the court to shadow Thomas.

Sunday

2:20 PM, #4 Michigan vs. #3 Florida (-5), NCAA

• Be honest: at about 11:20 last night, you were imagining a Michigan-FGCU matchup. The Gators took about 14 minutes of their regional semifinal off, and the Eagles were more than happy to take advantage ... but kenpom's season-long #1 team came to play in the second half and finished off the upset-minded Atlantic Sun champs.
• Of course, it should have been a Kansas-FGCU game, as the Jayhawks kept Trey Burke in check for 20 minutes, then decided they'd see what happened if they gave him a chance to steal the game.
• Florida will present a serious challenge for Michigan's perimeter defense: they hit 38.1% of their threes (23rd), take 40.1% of their attempts from three (31st), and score 34.6% of their points from there (31st). 
• Naturally, the interior defense will be important too, as Florida's accuracy from inside the arc is better than Michigan's (54.6%, 8th). 
• Like OSU, Michigan will be facing a team that doesn't shoot free throws well. The Gators shoot just .677 (225th). Patric Young will not be on the floor late, as he hits just .504 from the line; Scottie Wilbekin is the next guy to foul, shooting .695 from the stripe. (He did hit 7-8 vs. FGCU and 7-10 vs. Minnesota.)
• It will be interesting to watch Mitch McGary battle Erik Murphy inside. The freshman faces his third straight marquee matchup, and he came off pretty well in the first two: 24 points and 14 boards vs. Juvonte Reddic (who was limited by foul trouble), and 25 points and 14 boards last night against Jeff Withey. Murphy, Young, and Will Yeguete will have to work to limit McGary's offensive rebounds; the only non-post player on Michigan with an OReb above 2.5% is Glenn Robinson III (7.6%), so with McGary sure to get the bulk of the low-post minutes, keeping McGary boxed out will limit Michigan's second-chance opportunities.

Ding Dong...

A year ago, I wrote a post about how IU was going to be very good in '12/'13...and it pained me.

When I saw that IU was the pre-season #1 in both polls, it smarted.

When Purdue floundered and IU played some of the best basketball in the nation, it flat-out sucked...And the media piled on and pretty much took college basketball away from me for a few months; I couldn't stand to watch morons like Vitale tell me how good Crean was at his job.

Four players on IU's starting five were on the three All-conference teams...the fifth was on the all-Frosh squad; and it was kind of tough to argue with it.

As the Naismith Award lists were trimmed, and trimmed and trimmed, IU had 2 of the final 8 players on the list...and finally, IU still had one of the final four players on the list.

But tonight, IU's movement was flushed out of the tournament...and the accolades and hype matter little.

The only upset that I had in my bracket that I was sure of, was tonight's game...and for once, my logic was sound. Cuse's zone created havoc for IU. Hulls' poor defensive abilities kept him on the bench...this eliminated a scoring threat that might have been able to break the zone.  And, of course, a guy who has won a few games, Boeheim, out-coached the Forehead.  Crean made no effective adjustments...He tried to get his guys to run to keep the Orange from setting up their defense, but as the pace picked up, Cuse's offense looked better.

I've said it before and I'll say it again- there were some guys on IU's team that I would love to have seen in gold and black...but Sheehey has never been one of those guys. So seeing him whimpering on IU's bench as time expired warmed the cockles of my cold, gray heart.

Fellow BS co-founder, J was pretty confident back in January that IU wasn't a legit national title contender...I disagreed adamantly, especially after watching them beat the crap out of our Boilers...but he didn't think they were built for the long haul in the grueling NCAA tournament; and I still don't understand why.

This IU team was healthy, experienced, has slashers, shooters, a great big man, team speed and athleticism, amazing chemistry and a decent bench...with the exception (of course) of the guy who was supposed to be sitting upon it...and instead was always pacing in front of it.  But as we all know, it doesn't take a ton of coaching talent to wrangle and organize one of the most-talented groups in the nation.

Illinois and Kansas fans alike have lamented that Bill Self isn't the greatest coach...but he has a national championship. Boeheim has been accused of being inflexible and unable to adjust on the fly...but with a few AAs, he got the Orange a national title. Steve Fisher and Jim Harrick rode the coattails of great players to earn a ring*.

But, a truly great IU team, with seemingly all of the parts needed to earn the crown couldn't get it done this year. So once again, I can enjoy college basketball and take a bit of a deep breath.

I'm blessed to live in my parent's basement to be self-employed...so I can generally stay away from bars and restaurants when the situation is like it's been the last few weeks in Central Indiana.  But this evening, my wife, kids and I met my brothers, their wives and kids for dinner...and it wasn't a good seen. Nearly everyone had a flipping IU shirt or hat on. Some of them were real fans and alums; good for them (kinda)...but most were wearing gear that they had bought this winter. The good news for those clowns is that they'll be able to put away their shirt and/or hat until next November...and won't even have to wash it.

For a storied program that a true basketball genius once led, success used to be measured by National Titles and little else.  But, the new look IU fan told us nearly two years ago that they were back.  They believed they were there because Crean had recruited a few guys that RMK could have only dreamt about- two five star players, a handful of four stars and success was all but assured.  Last year, IU had 20+ wins and made it to the Sweet 16.  Crean built a trophy case, had rings made...and IU fans shouted from the hills of Southern Indiana that they "were back!!"

This season was the next logical step: A B1G title and another sweet 16.  True success, I guess.

Funny thing is, in '09 and '10, Purdue averaged 28 wins, had a B1G championship and two Sweet 16s.

No trophy case.
No rings.
No talk of the program returning.

Oh yeah, and Purdue lost one of their best players to a torn ACL just a few weeks before that second tournament...but the past is the past.

Now, this season is over for both Purdue and IU...so we can look ahead for a moment.

Will Purdue get back to contending for the conference title? Who will transfer (if anyone), who will improve during the off-season?

And for IU, how will they replace their Senior leaders? Who will go pro?
If I were a betting man, I'd put a quarter on Oladipo leaving...and IU returning just two of its starting five...but at this point, my guess is worth no more than the IU fan's who assures themselves that the only guys leaving are the Seniors.

No matter.

Ding Dong, the wicked witch from the South died as Tom Crean's Diet Coke-fueled PR/hype machine ground to a halt in the sweet 16.



*No, not a sweet 16 ring.

By the Numbers: NCIT, Continuing Action

I've been sick since Sunday, so there was no clever wrap-up of last week's action. Naturally, Iowa has won yet again – they'll end up winning the NIT and I'll have done maybe one preview for them. Elsewhere, Tubby Smith loses his job one game after his Gophers knock Ben Howland out of his ... presumably there are other reasons, but it sounds more fun to write it this way, doesn't it, Billy Donovan?

With Purdue's exit from the CBI, there are just two tournaments left to watch.

Thursday

7:47 PM, #2 Ohio State (-4) vs. #6 Arizona, NCAA

• The Buckeyes struggled against Iowa State in two areas: offensive rebounding (the Cyclones had 12, .387) and three-point shooting. At 12 for 25, ISU shot better from outside the arc (.480) than inside it (.407). Most of that came from Michigan State transfer Korie Lucious (5 for 7); the boards came primarily from 6'6" Melvin Ejim (6 of the 12), who has a 13.2 OReb%, 62nd in the country.
• Both of those areas could be problems against the Wildcats. Arizona gets 35.1% of available offensive rebounds (61st); although they don't have an Ejim to gather all of them, 7'0" freshman Kaleb Tarczewski pulls down 11.9%, followed by 6'8" Brandon Ashley (9.4%) and 6'6" Kevin Parrom (9.1%). Four Arizona starters shoot at least .333 from outside (including Parrom), and 6'10" freshman Grant Jerrett shoots .403 ... these are not guys you want to leave open.
• Arizona's height (+3.5", 16th) may give Ohio State some trouble. Deshaun Thomas should get his points, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see the role players struggle to help him.

9:45 PM, #1 Those Guys (-5) vs. #4 Syracuse, NCAA

• The #1 offense in the country scored 15 points in 20 minutes against a Temple team not playing a matchup zone. The Owls' defense is marginally better than average (97.2), so Tom Crean had better get those problems worked out before facing a much better defense: Syracuse is 10th (88.1).
• Indiana gets a lot of shots blocked (10.7%, 277th), which is music to Boeheim's ears, as Syracuse leads the country in block percentage (18.8%). Four players are ranked individually, led by Rakeem Christmas (11.2%, 20th) and Baye Keita (8.4%, 62nd). As a point of comparison, Ohio State is 15th. In the regular-season game IU won, they had just one shot blocked; in the loss in Bloomington, the Buckeyes blocked seven shots.
• Both teams crash the offensive boards well (Syracuse 39.5% and 5th, two spots ahead of IU), so expect a lot of second-chance points and angry teeth-gnashing on the sidelines. (This may be where Syracuse loses the game: they give up a lot of offensive boards – 34.2%, 270th.)

Friday

7:37 PM, #4 Michigan (-1) vs. #1 Kansas, NCAA

• kenpom loves Michigan in no small part because of their evisceration of Havoc. While that confidence might carry over into Friday's game, nothing else does, and certainly they can't expect to have the same type of success against a completely different team.
• Kansas leads the country in defensive eFG% (41.1%; Southern is second, which may help to explain why Gonzaga did not roll over them on Thursday). They don't force turnovers much (18.5%, 253rd), basically because they just let Jeff Withey block shots (13.7%, 5th). Michigan is 11th in two-point shooting (53.8%) while the Jayhawks are 1st in two-point shooting allowed (38.7%). One of these things, you know.
• At the other end, Kansas does turn the ball over a lot (20.4%, 201st), but Michigan doesn't force a lot of turnovers (18.8%, 237th). The Jayhawks have four starters shooting better than .500 from two-point range; expect them to pound away at Michigan's defense rather than trying to stretch it with outside shooting.

9:45 PM, #3 Michigan State vs. #2 Duke (-1), NCAA

• Michigan State overwhelmed their first two opponents with defense: 0.90 PPP for Valparaiso and 0.71 for Memphis. Duke held Creighton to 0.78. That probably means we'll see a game in the high 80s.
• Like Sparty, Duke is strong at both ends, so a loss typically comes when they struggle in multiple areas. Against Maryland, Duke was cold from three (4-25) and didn't defend inside the arc (18-31, .581). Dez Wells put up 30, including 10-10 from the line. It might take a similar effort from Nix or Payne for Michigan State to advance to Sunday's regional final.
• Three Duke starters shoot .800 or better from the line (Rasheed Sulaimon is exactly at .800) ... but Mason Plumlee is not one of them. He's the only high-usage guy worth fouling, and at .672, he's not terrible. The Spartans aren't likely to make up ground by fouling late in the game.

Tuesday

9:00 PM, #3 Iowa (-4) vs. #2 Maryland, NIT

I know, we'll have regional finals before this game, but if I don't do it now, I'll forget again.

• Who's excited about this future conference matchup? Bueller? Bueller?
• OK, seriously. Maryland's offense is ... not so good (106.5, 78th). Yes, they scored 83 points in each of their wins over Duke, but that's the kind of performance they'll need to beat an Iowa team with a slightly better defense. Maryland turns the ball over a lot (22.1%, 286th), but Iowa doesn't force turnovers much (19.5%, 202nd); they also don't draw a lot of fouls (34.6 FTA/FGA, 212th). Basically, it's the two-point shot (52.2%, 24th) or bust, which sounds easy enough for Iowa to defend.
• Going back to why these teams are in the NIT ... Iowa allowed roughly 1 PPP to Stony Brook and Virginia, also not offensive powers, so it may be that the Hawkeyes are just defending down to the level of their opponents. They did hit much better from outside than normal (.421 against Stony Brook, .471 against Virginia), and the Terrapins do allow a number of three-point shots (34.3%, 215th), so Iowa may find themselves in the NIT final if someone takes advantage of the open looks they'll be getting.

Quick Hitter: Easiest Road to the Final Four Ever? (and notes)

Right now, I'm watching as Creighton is up on Duke...and the two teams are setting a scorching pace...they'll score around 40 points each, if they keep going this way.

Coming into the tournament, pundits and fans alike could agree that this was a weird tournament as there was really no clear favorite...and college basketball's parity would be more on display than ever this year.

It has been...but some of it is self-inflicted.

Gonzaga never deserved a one seed...but their seeding was an obvious representation of a thesis I've had for years: the committee gets brainwashed like everyone else does...and no one, even committee members live in a bubble.  Stupid crap spewed by guys like Vitale simply muddied the water and forced the hand of the committee.

The Zags nearly became the first 1 to lose to a 16...then followed it up by getting knocked out by Witchita State. This was one thing I got right in my bracket; I had no faith in Gonzaga.  Unlike B1G teams, they simply weren't tested...the pressure is ratcheted up on the biggest stages versus the best teams...hell, it's even a lot of pressure versus an OK team, on national TV in a large, packed house; when you're supposed to win. Mark Few's guys failed the test, but it shocked no one.

Foolishly, I believed that Jamie Dixon would forget who he was this year and take his Pitt Panthers on a lil' run in the tourney.  Of course, he did not. And in doing so, he taught me a valuable lesson: Never pick Pitt in March...and Pitt made sure that advice would stick the day after their loss by signing him to a 10 year extension...craziness. I guess they felt his door was getting beaten down; by whom, I don't know.  Their conference mate, G'Town also crapped the bed by becoming only the seventh 2 seed to go down to a 15.  The good news is Florida Gulf Coast was the assassin's hand, in this case...and we got to meet their coach's wife in the process: Amanda Marcum.

Go FGCU!

Purdue had a player transfer to that school a few years ago...before his transfer, I had never heard of the place.  I found out today why that was: the school has been around 16 years...and has been D-1 for two.  But their coach had a ton of confidence coming into the tournament anyway...and his team reflected that confidence.  Let's be honest- if your wife looked like his, you'd be confident too...or perhaps, if you had his confidence you'd be married to a Maxim model? Doubtful.  There's a difference between confidence and out-of-your-mind-cockiness.  Good for Coach Enfield for whichever got the deal don with the mrs.

Earlier today, we saw Temple wilt under the pressure of the big stage and Oladipo rise to the occasion (yet again) as IU survived and advanced to the round of 16.  Still no word from Bloomington on whether nets were cut down, a new trophy case was built or rings were handed out...I assume the answer to all questions is yes.  Hope so, because I think Boeheim's Orange will be a tougher win than the owls were this afternoon. IU struggled versus the zone this season...and no one plays that defense as well as Syracuse.

Another guy that stepped up today was Aaron Craft. I've never been a fan of that guy...but if he wore gold and black, I'm sure I would be. He plays hard, doesn't believe any loose ball is out of his reach and seems to be afraid of no one. He made a few mistakes down the stretch versus The Mayor's Cyclones...but he made up for it with a few huge plays in the closing seconds.

And with aOSU's win, it became pretty obvious to me that the Bucknuts most-assuredly have the easiest road the final four EVER.

They've beaten a 15 and a 10 seed so far...their next two steps will be versus a 6 seed and a 9 or 13. WOW!! Ohio State is good...but the old saying is it's better to be lucky than good...but how about, it's best to be lucky and good. Matta's team has been given a gift in their bracket...a road to Atlanta in which they'll have to only play one ranked opponent...one who was barely ranked at the end of the season.

UCLA officially fired Ben Howland in the wake of their dismantling at the hands of a mediocre Minnesota team. UCLA had one of the nation's best recruiting classes in '12...and they probably acquired it by whatever means necessary...Howland's program had been slipping; and the only reason they had everyone eligible during this season was because an NCAA investigator dropped the ball during the investigation.  My question after I heard that this was going to happen last night was how long it will be before Shaka Smart and/or Brad Stevens are contacted? Sure, both bowed out pretty early from the tourney this season...but both are still white hot commodities in the coaching world.

Getting back to the bracket really quickly- I've never had one of mine deemed completely worthless as early as I did this year.  For some dumbass reason, I picked New Mexico to go to the Final Four. Steve Alford promptly kicked me in the teeth.  The good news is that when your bracket turns to crap, you can watch the tournament and just root for underdogs and programs you like (read as: the cutest mascots).  But on Twitter, J and I were asked if we root for B1G programs this time of year.

If you read the site, which I'm quickly learning many of our Twitter followers don't*, you know that we have very little conference loyalty.  I wasn't rooting for Wisconsin because I wanted to see Bo Ryan whine. I don't root for MSU because they seem to have a ton of unlikable characters within the program...and I absolutely never root for IU (since Crean was hired). I actually did root for IU to win when Davis was coach; that was the exception.

Here's to IU's run ending soon and Florida Gulf Coast's coach earning another trophy.

*Actually, I don't think many of our Twitter followers think we're anything more than one amazingly-funny and/or brash dude in his parents' basement...they're only half right.

By the Numbers: NCITBI, Rounds 2-3

I didn't think anyone would be dumb enough to have men's basketball games other than NCAA games on Thursday or Friday (especially given who's running the NIT now). I was wrong. Iowa didn't seem to be in any real trouble, but didn't exactly crush Stony Brook ... still, a win is a win. They've advanced with Maryland to the NIT quarters, and those will be played on non-NCAA game days. Either Virginia or St. John's will face Iowa, likely in Iowa City because Big Ten.

Onto the upcoming games ... Wisconsin was the only loser, so this won't be much shorter than last time.

Saturday

12:15 PM, #4 Michigan (-1) vs. #5 VCU, NCAA

• Michigan beat South Dakota State mostly by hitting from outside; they shot nearly the same from two (.576 for the Jackrabbits to .543 for the Wolverines), had the same number of offensive and defensive rebounds, and hit the same number of free throws. Michigan is not likely to match VCU that way: as mgoblog points out, VCU lives and dies by its press. If it works, the Rams will force turnovers that lead to easy baskets and cause serious problems for UM. (Sound familiar? Nope, not to me either. No idea what you're talking about.) If it doesn't, Michigan's offense will shred the Rams, and VCU's sub-par half-court offense will struggle, even against a defense that has been pretty weak the last month or so.
• Trey Burke had just 6 points against SDSU, his only single-figure output of the season. He's had fewer than 15 only three other times: 12 against Cleveland State, 10 against Kansas State, and 11 against Eastern Michigan, all in games Michigan won comfortably. I'd expect a solid game this time out, because in the games following those outings, he was impressive: 17 points and 6 assists against Pitt, 18 points and 11 assists against NC State, 22 points and 11 assists against Central Michigan. (Competition obviously better in the first two games.) 
• VCU has played four games against kenpom top-20 teams: Duke, Missouri, and St. Louis twice. They lost all four. Maybe this means Michigan has an edge in close games between good teams; maybe this is where VCU makes another one of those runs. On the other hand, even forcing turnovers didn't help in those games – Missouri had 14 and St. Louis had 18 (VCU forced 8 in each of the other two big-game losses).

2:45 PM, #3 Michigan State (-5) vs. #6 Memphis, NCAA

• Michigan State turned the ball over 17 times against Valparaiso, but crashed the offensive boards (20, .571) to make up for it, and the Crusaders normally box out pretty well. Memphis is worse on the defensive glass, but better at forcing turnovers; if Memphis can pressure Sparty's bigs (Payne had 6 of the 17 and Nix had 2), they could create problems even if Harris has another tolerable day (4 assists, 2 TOs against Valparaiso).
• The Tigers played really effective D against St. Mary's, which was good because they gave up 15 offensive boards (.375). Josh Pastner is probably tired of facing trees, as the Gaels are about like MSU on the glass, and the Tigers are likely to struggle Saturday too.
• Their offense against St. Mary's was not good at all: 0.86 PPP, .441 from two, .500 from the line. Memphis, like VCU, did not fare well against top-20 competition, losing all three games (VCU, Minnesota, and Louisville). None of the losses were bad, and the Tigers are unlikely to give up 80+ to the plodding Spartans, but they will be made to pay if they don't fix their rebounding issues.

Sunday

12:15 PM, #2 Ohio State (-8) vs. #10 Iowa State, NCAA

• The Buckeyes thrashed Iona soundly, in part because they averaged 1.19 PPP to the Gaels' 0.88. (I know! Two Gaels in one tournament! It's like the Hunger Games, only without mines buried in the court.) They were up 16 after 10 minutes, and that was pretty much that.
• The supporting cast showed up nicely, as Sam Thompson had 20 (including 8-8 from the line), and Lenzelle Smith and Evan Ravenel had 12 and 11 respectively. That's going to be a problem for a Cyclone defense that is close to average, especially given OSU's run of late. There aren't many teams that played through their conference tournaments and into the NCAAs like they wanted a Final Four spot, and OSU is one of them.
• Iowa State's offense is actually pretty solid: 8th in ORtg, 41st from three, 27th from two, and 58th from the line. Tyrus McGee only gets about 60% of available minutes, but makes the most of them, with a 130.8 ORtg, 8th-best in the country: .545 from two plus a team-leading .457 from three and .825 from the line. I'd expect Aaron Craft to be guarding McGee starting at the scorer's table; that will require one of the other guys to step up, like Melvin Ejim (113.6 ORtg, 17 against Notre Dame) or Georges Niang (116.5 ORtg, 19 against ND). The Irish defense isn't anything like Ohio State's, so they may find it a bit more difficult to build a lead for McGee to maintain.

2:45 PM, #1 Indiana (-15) vs. #9 Temple, NCAA

• Don't be fooled by the score: JMU scored half of their points in the final ten minutes of the game, once everything was decided, and still only outscored IU by 8 over that time. Once Yogi Ferrell built that early lead, the game was pretty much over. (Not the 10 points I'd forecast, but close enough.)
• A John Chaney defense might have been enough to slow down this Indiana team; an adequate Fran Dunphy defense will not be. Duke put up 90 points at 1.32 PPP in a blowout win in December; four Blue Devils had 14 points or more. Expect Indiana to have an equally-balanced attack Sunday.
• Temple's offense is actually pretty efficient (111.2, 33rd), but largely because they don't turn the ball over at all (15.9%, 9th). That's not going to matter. Indiana defends pretty much everything Temple does well, and the Owls really don't stop anything Indiana does well on offense. Indiana likely won't be tested on Sunday.

6:10 PM, #11 Minnesota vs. #3 Florida (-9), NCAA

• The Gophers got a thin UCLA squad in early foul trouble and buried them; that could also happen (the foul trouble, not the burying part) against the Gators, who are 303rd in bench minutes (24.7%); UCLA was 294th (25.2%).
• Minnesota was 9-16 from three, including 4-6 from Austin and 5-8 from Andre Hollins. Neither missed from the line (11-11 combined); Andre's 28 points was topped only by his 41 against Memphis in November. Florida allows opponents to hit 29.7% from three and just 41.6% from two, so I wouldn't expect a similar performance Sunday. Minnesota can't even guarantee an advantage on the offensive glass (they're still #1 in the country), as Florida allows just 28.3 OReb%, 50th.
• Minnesota's three-point defense isn't great, and Florida can hit from there (38.0%, 25th) as well as from two (54.9%, 8th) ... the team that's been #1 in kenpom's rankings since January 12 doesn't struggle often, and in most of their losses, their weakness was in a different area: giving Arizona 13 more FT attempts (and 14 more to Kansas State), allowing Arkansas to score 1.14 PPP, hitting just 10-33 from three against Missouri, giving Tennessee 13 offensive rebounds ... the Gophers will simply have to create a weakness and focus on it, hoping to keep the Gators close enough that one advantage (rebounding, maybe?) will be enough to give them a narrow win.

8:40 PM, #7 Illinois vs. #2 Miami (FL) (-5), NCAA

• Illinois played three games against Colorado: led 37-21 at halftime, gave up a 21-2 run to blow that lead, then finished on an 18-7 run to put the game away.
• Defense carried the day, as the Buffaloes managed just 0.77 PPP. Miami hasn't been held under 1.0 PPP since a 54-50 win over Virginia in February. The Hurricanes don't turn the ball over much, either (16.9%, 22nd), so the advantage the Illini might otherwise have there is neutralized.
• Miami doesn't allow a lot of threes (35.2% of attempts, 252nd), so that's not a good sign for John Groce's three-or-nothing offense. The 'Canes also allow 32.7% accuracy, so what little effect that has will also not be in Illinois' favor.
• Actually, Illinois really doesn't have any edge here. Everything they do well, Miami does better: they're taller (+4.0", 10th), more experienced (2.40 years, 8th) ... I guess if bench play becomes a factor, Miami could be in trouble (23.9% bench minutes, 312th), but I think it's more likely that the Illini will find themselves behind early and won't be able to shoot their way out of it.

Monday

7:00 PM, Santa Clara at Purdue (-7), CBI

• As mentioned in other posts, Purdue won't find themselves as underdogs in this tournament; kenpom says it's theirs to win. Santa Clara is a step up from Western Illinois, but not much of one: while they do force turnovers, kind of (21.3%, 92nd) and hold down two-point shooting (44.9%, 77th), Purdue's already bad at those things ... 
• ... and Santa Clara does not box out well: 33.5% OReb allowed is a good thing for Purdue fans and for Dru Anthrop. (And, you know, any bigs who decide to get some of those missed shots.) Of course if Purdue shoots like they did against the Leathernecks – .571 from two, .636 from three, .923 from the line – then it probably doesn't matter what happens on missed shots. (The Boilers did get 9 offensive boards, .391.)
• Western's offense was fairly effective, and Santa Clara does have a pretty good offense (1.17 PPP against Vermont, 107.0 ORtg overall, 72nd), but again, West Coast Conference opposition. The Catamounts were actually the second-highest-rated team the Broncos beat; somehow they knocked off St. Louis on the road, 74-62. Let's write that off as early-season jitters and move on. 
• Honestly, we can probably throw all these numbers out the window. Either the Boilers will work hard and get the win, or they'll let it slip away: they're perfectly capable of solid performances when Painter can get 40 (or even 30) good minutes out of the team. Purdue is 2-7 against top-20 competition; Santa Clara is not top-20 competition.

By the Numbers: NCITBI, Round 1

Fortunately the conference hasn't expanded yet, otherwise I'd be a day late with this. (What? You didn't realize that Maryland's already advanced in the NIT?) If you happen to be one of those people who watches every available tournament game, here's a few stats on each of the nine games involving Big Ten teams in the first* round of the CBI, NIT, and NCAA tournaments.

Wednesday

7 PM, #6 Indiana State at #3 Iowa (-11)**, NIT

• Expect a low-scoring game featuring two of the better defenses in the country: Iowa's is significantly better (89.5 vs. 94.6), and that plus ISU's average offense (100.8 - the average is 100.6) will make it hard for the Sycamores to make up ground, especially given their preferred tempo (65.4, right around average, which is 65.8 possessions). 
• Threes? We don't need no stinkin' threes. ISU's bad, at 32.2%; Iowa's worse, at 30.0%. The Hawkeyes also allow only 29.0% on defense, fifth in the country. (Magic wands? Loud noises from the sidelines?) Again, a factor conducive to an insurmountable halftime lead for the Hawkeyes.
• Both teams draw a lot of fouls: ISU 42.7 FTA/FGA, Iowa 42.5. If it's a close game, expect the second half to take about two hours.
• Iowa's the highest-rated team in kenpom's ratings (27th) not to make the NCAA tournament.

7 PM, Western Illinois at Purdue (-10), CBI

• Obviously you're watching this to support the Good Guys and not because you expect an enjoyable game. For all the struggles Purdue's had on offense, the Leathernecks have had them in spades: 94.0, which makes Purdue's look like a well-oiled cliche. (Actually, for the year, Purdue's offense is above average, 104.6. That's mostly offensive rebounding and partly strength of schedule.) WIU's preferred tempo is 1930s-style basketball: they are the slowest team in the country, averaging 57.8 possessions per game. Wisconsin, by comparison, averages 61.9. I wouldn't be surprised if these teams fail to combine for 100 points.
• Accordingly, Western does not crash the boards on offense (24.8%, 336th) and packs it in on defense (27.2% allowed, 28th). Between that and not fouling (28.5 FTA/FGA allowed, also 28th), Purdue needs to make the most of the shots they'll get. 
• If Purdue falls behind, they should feel free to foul. WIU shoots 64.8% from the line, only a few points better than the Boilers (64.1%). The two Leathernecks with the most possessions shoot under 50%; Terell Parks, a 6-8 rebounding machine (27.6% DReb, 4th in NCAA), shoots .439 from the line. He's been out for nearly a month with a foot injury, so even if he does play, I doubt he'll be shooting any better.

Thursday

12:15 PM, #3 Michigan State (-9) vs. #14 Valparaiso, NCAA

• What's the opposite of Purdue-Western Illinois? This game. Valpo's offense can hang with MSU's (109.9 vs. 112.8), but at a slightly higher tempo (65.9 to 64.4) and with a much more accurate touch. Valparaiso shoots 56.1% from two, 4th in the country; 37.5% from three, 38th; and 73.7% from the line, 45th. They don't get second looks much, but they don't need them. If MSU can't force turnovers (the Crusaders turn it over like the Spartans, 22.0% vs. 20.5%), they can't be giving up open looks.
• You know how basketball brains like to talk about experience? Who's got the most experienced team in the country? Valparaiso, 2.72 years of experience per player. That's nearly 1.5 seasons more than MSU averages. No hidden-ball tricks in this game.
• The Horizon League champions don't have any quality wins, but two of their losses were at tournament teams (13 at St. Louis and New Mexico), and two of their bad losses were by a single bucket. This kind of team is hard to judge. Did they shoot so well because their opponents aren't good, or are they good enough to put a scare into Sparty? Don't be surprised if the first half proves the latter to be true.
• Pacer.

7:15 PM, #4 Michigan (-13) vs. #13 South Dakota State, NCAA

• So Michigan's freshmen suddenly remembered they were freshmen and got knocked around the last month of the season ... in the Big Ten, which will never be mistaken for the Summit League, which is probably best known for a coach diving on the floor to celebrate a tournament bid. (Did I remember that correctly?) The Jackrabbits are experienced – 2.18 years, 43rd – but that shouldn't be Michigan's concern ...
• ... instead, it should be their shooting touch. Take Valparaiso and level them up: 39.4% from three (9th), 50.3% from two (60th), 77.3% from the line (5th). In other words, do not sag off your man. If Nate Wolters (124.8 ORtg, 29th) beats Trey Burke, let him.
• Sadly for the upset-minded, SDSU does not boast the same kind of defense. Like Michigan, they don't foul much (24.6 FTA/FGA, 4th, to Michigan's NCAA-leading 22.9), but their eFG is 50.9%, well worse than average. The Jackrabbits may run out to a lead, but the Wolverines are more than likely to run them down and shred them: Michigan's eFG is better (54.4% to 53.5% for SDSU's offense) and came largely against a much better conference. Don't be surprised if this one looks close at the half before UM pulls away late.

Friday

12:40 PM, #5 Wisconsin (-5) vs. #12 Mississippi, NCAA

• These teams are more alike than you might think: good offense, good defense, rare turnovers (5th and 7th in offensive turnover %). Where they differ is in tempo: Ole Miss likes to run (70.8 possessions, 11th-fastest) and Wisconsin likes to sit and watch paint dry (61.9, as mentioned above).
• Mississippi probably needs to run, though. They don't shoot well from three (33.0%, 218th) or from the line (68.4%, although that's way better than Wisconsin's brick-like 63.3%). 
• Expect a lot of shots to end up anywhere but the rim: both teams block quite a few shots (Mississippi 7.5%, Wisconsin 7.0%). 
• One last thing: if there is a prop bet*** on Mississippi assists, take the under. They average an assist on less than half their made baskets (46.1%, 318th), and Wisconsin allows an assist on just 40.4%, 2nd-best in the country.

4:10 PM, #1 Forces of Evil (-22) vs. #16 James Madison, NCAA

• OK, OK, I'll update this once we know who the opponent is, as if it matters. While a #16 will eventually knock off a #1, as a famous actor once said, today is not that day.
• So ... this is your traditional 16 vs. 1. If IU isn't up by 10 at the first commercial break, it'll be a disappointment. JMU doesn't have an average offense (97.6) ... their defense isn't bad (98.2), but this is Indiana offense. 
• The Dukes don't turn the ball over much (17.3%, 35th). That's probably all we want to say about them.
• One of the tallest teams in the country (effective height +3.1" per position, 19th) faces one of the shortest (-1.9", 290th). I think Cody Zeller already has three rebounds.

4:40 PM, #7 Illinois (-1) vs. #10 Colorado, NCAA

• You know 7/10 games are usually tossups, right? Sure you do. Illinois has a slight edge in offensive efficiency (109.7 to 105.7), but Colorado has the advantage on defense (90.9 to 93.3). 
• The teams have weaknesses that match their opponents' strengths, too, but that's not good for the Illini: Illinois doesn't draw fouls on offense (31.2 FTA/FGA, 290th), and Colorado doesn't commit fouls (24.7, 6th). The Buffaloes do draw fouls well (41.4, 41st), and Illinois is happy to comply (36.9 defensively, 201st). 
• Illinois shoots a ton of threes, but shoots them poorly (32.3%, 244th) ... and Colorado doesn't allow accuracy (also 32.3%, 93rd), although they do allow frequency (31.7% of opponents' points come from outside, 38th, well above the NCAA average of 27.5%). If someone gets hot from outside, that could cause Colorado problems.

7:15 PM, #2 Ohio State (-16) vs. #15 Iona, NCAA

• I laughed at the people picking OSU to win the conference tournament. Whatever.
• Iona actually has a pretty good offense, 113.1 (22nd) vs. OSU's 114.6 (14th). They don't turn it over much (16.9% to 16.6%) and shoot well (52.5% eFG to 50.8% for OSU). Also, they hit free throws (77.8%, 4th). Which means ...
• nothing. They will run (70.6 possessions, 18th) and jack up threes (37.3% accuracy, 41st), and it won't matter, because their below-average defense (105.5, 255th) will get them crushed. Poor two-point defense (49.1%, 232nd) and defensive rebounding (33.4 OReb% on defense, 246th) will ensure that Deshaun Thomas has a monster game. 

9:57 PM,  #11 Minnesota (-3) vs. #6 UCLA, NCAA

• How is it that a team that's lost 7 of their last 10 is favored against a #6 seed? Well, two of their wins came against kenpom top-10 teams (Wisconsin and Indiana), plus the Pac-12 is ... not so strong. Arizona and Arizona State are the only teams favored to win their tournament games; UCLA and Arizona are the only teams with NCAA bids seeded higher than 10th. 
• Who's going to stop Minnesota's NCAA-leading offensive rebound game (44.3%)? No one. UCLA gives up an offensive rebound about one time in three (34.0%, 267th). The Bruins swept Arizona in conference play, but gave up 19 offensive rebounds in the game in Tucson. Missouri had 20 in an overtime loss at Pauley. Washington State had 21 in a win at UCLA (in a game they led 21-4 at the 10-minute mark in the first half).
• While the Bruins do like to run (69.3 possessions, 35th), their advantage may be on turnovers. Minnesota turns it over a lot (21.7%, 266th) and UCLA gets a lot of steals (11.6%, 53rd). If UCLA pulls off the "upset", look to their transition game as a possible factor.

I would totally put pictures and stuff in here, but my new laptop just arrived, so I got to go. (If it helps any, it's got an Old Gold cover.)

*Opening-round games are opening-round games. The first round has 64 teams. The NCAA's insistence on calling a red pencil yellow does not make the pencil yellow.
**All lines from kenpom.com and for informational purposes only. Betting on NIT games? That's a problem, my friend.
***What's a prop bet? I don't know. It's probably illegal. Everything's illegal. What was the question again?

BS Bracket Time!!

Get excited..It's tourney time!!!

I've got whatever sickeness LBD had a few days ago- I can barely see out of my right eye because of all of the gunk in it, my nose is running, I'm coughing...AND my Boilers have been asked to play in the CBI; not an ideal morning in March.  All that said, I still love this time of year and am excited to to have my wife kick my ass fill out a bracket for the in the yearly BS bracket challenge.

If you're not, you're either a Communist or a Communist, because there is simply no higher achievement than winning this very bracket.  To create a bracket and enter, CLICK HERE!!

In case that link didn't work, or you're phobic of clicking things, the bracket name is "BS March Happy Fun Smile"...group #106391 in EsPN's Tournament Challenge page.

We usually get around 1,000,000* entries, so your odds of winning are better than the powerball...but the prizes are better than a Powerball winner** because our contest makes you rich AND famous***!!!

In all seriousness, the winner of our Bracket Challenge will win a few things; one might be a chance to post on this site...a prize that has more value than cash; you can't simply buy it**** plus you'll win a few other things in J's parents' basement.



*We've never had close to 1,000,000 entries
**Our prizes are no where near as valuable as winning the Powerball
*** "rich and famous" are based on the author's opinion of wealth and fame
****you actually could buy it; name a price...we're listening.

Boilermaker Basketball and and Dirty 3 Letter Word: NIT

Boilermaker faithful, you need to start wrapping the idea around your head that this team could possibly miss the NCAA Tournament for the second time under Matt Painter this season. Yes I know it’s a hard reality to come to and I’m not sure if I'm quite there yet. In fact, there is still an opportunity for this team to make the tournament, but it’s going to take some growing up, and fast.  With only five non-conference games left, including Notre Dame and West Virginia, it’s going to take some big wins to get to the big dance, but isn’t that true for every year?

Going into conference play at 8-4, for the optimist, or the record of 7-5 for the realist, it’s going to take some solid road play in conference for Matty’s boys to get invited to the dance.  

That being said, here are my keys for making the Big Dance this season.

More Productivity Offensively

Shooting only 42 percent so far this season, these Boilermakers are on pace to shoot the second lowest percentage under Painter.  The only team with a lower percentage was the 2007-2008 season, that class worked out pretty well. The only difference is that that season the Boilermakers shot 37 percent from beyond the arc, a pipe dream for this season's team from what we’ve seen so far.

At 25 percent on the season, better shots need to be taken from beyond the arc.  This will come with aging, but the Boilermakers aren’t going to make their money with Ronnie Johnson jacking up threes after a crossover everytime down the court.  They also don’t need Anthony running into the lane throwing up a floater over three guys in the paint; that being said, Anthony has really improved his control this season and his decision making is leaps and bounds better.

Byrd will get hot, it’s just going to take him some time get warmed up.

As the season goes on I think we will start seeing more points scored by the big guys.  I expect the Boilermakers to heat up a bit from the perimeter thus allowing Hammons, Lawson, Hale and Simpson to cash in.

Keep on the Boards

This season Purdue is averaging just over 43 rebounds per game which puts them at 13th in the nation in this category. Yeah read that again, let it sink in.  Now pinch yourself and see that it is actually reality and not a dream.  The Boilermakers finally have a presence on the boards and it’s nice.  

The guards seem to be crashing down and the big guys are pulling them down with authority.  I’ve been really impressed with Carroll on the boards this season when he is in the game.  Terone has also started following his shots which has led to him to become the second leading rebounder on the team averaging 4.6 per game.  

Hammons was the difference maker here. He is averaging 5.9 rebounds per game this season, just for comparison purposes, JaJuan Johnson averaged only three his freshman year, Hammons is way ahead of the game here.  It’s going to be fun to watch him grow into one of the elite big men in the conference.

More Intensity

I have a really good feeling about what the game against Lamar did for the team. The MVP of that game wasn’t even close to the most athletic player on the team.  Dru Anthrop emerged as a huge presence. He was a menace on defense and gave all he had while he was out there.  I think we will start seeing Anthrop a part of the regular rotation from here forward, but most of all I think it will help motivate the guys.  

As a freshman seeing Dru Anthrop diving for balls, deflecting passes like JJ Watt and just hustling on every position has to be inspirational.  College basketball is so much based on emotion and once this whole team starts playing with the same team Anthrop plays with, it will be better off. As Matt Painter said in the post game presser, “He’s Solid.”

Eliminate Dumb Turnovers, and Force More Turnovers

The Boilermakers are averaging 14 turnovers per game and have forced around 13 per game.  History says that when Painter squads are positive in the turnover margin, they are usually successful. Contrary to this theory though, this season in losses Purdue is actually positive in the turnover margin, but Purdue has also played some really close games this season.

Controlling the ball on drives has proven difficult for this young squad. Making controlled smart drives is going to be crucial for this young squad and playing upfront defense is going to be something that separates them.

Establish a Second Go To Guy

Purdue is going to continue to feed the post and Terone Johnson will more than likely continue his leadership scoring, but Purdue needs another threat.  This position is wide open and up for grads.  With Anthony Johnson still inconsistent when it comes to being productive offensively and DJ Byrd in a slump which one of the young guys is going to step up?  

My guess is Raphael Davis.  Davis hasn’t received much playing time this season but I think he will be a great asset off the bench this season.  A natural slasher, Davis will provide another driving option from the wing similar to Terone.  Davis is already more polished as a freshman than Terone was so I look to him to become a key contributor this season off the bench.

Feed Lawson, Hammons, Hale and Simpson

Jacob Lawson is one of the most athletic player Purdue has ever had.  Sometimes he doesn’t give a lot of effort, that’s why he doesn’t play consistent minutes always, but he needs to get some touches inside.  

As mentioned earlier Hammons is quickly turning into a star.  More touches in the post means more productivity for the big guy.  Look for Hammons to make a huge impact when B1G rolls along.

Hale is going to have his number called a lot.  He’s going to be crucial in stunting zones this season as he can hit that elbow jumper all day long.  Look for him to be a big time contributor.

Simpson is still not in shape.  When asked about it in his presser, Painter said he still can only play for around three minutes without getting fatigued. Painter said it wasn’t going to come overnight, but if Simpson can get himself in shape he will surprise some people.  He’s down 40 pounds since he got to Purdue and it should be fun to watch him by the end of the season.

Change Their Luck

The Boilermakers have gotten very unlucky this season. In fact, they have had some of the worst luck in all of college basketball but this will change.  It’s time to start making better decisions and quit leaving teams in it.  A few ways to change the luck would be to start hitting free throws and stop committing stupid fouls.  Sometimes the three blind mice aren’t going to get it right, but Purdue has to fight through that in order to be successful.   

It’s going to be a tough battle to get into the tournament this season.  As of right now College Basketball Stat Sheet has Purdue’s predicted strength of schedule at number three in the nation. It’s a tough battle but if the Boilermakers can win the games they should and grab a few surprises on the way, these Boilermakers could still be tournament bound.  

Don’t forget the Baby Boilermakers lost four non-conference games in 2007, so don’t write this team off just yet.

With constant improvement this squad is going to be one that teams do not want to face towards the end of the season.  These Boilermakers are far from done, but don't be surprised if the Boilermakers miss it this year and just remember this is a rebuilding season and these Boilers are going to be great in the future.

Like So Many, Boilermakers Fail To Safely Escape Gary, IN

The good guys in old gold and black were eliminated from the NCAA Tournament yesterday in a 6-3 loss to Kentucky.

Purdue won their opening game in the middle of the cold night Friday into Saturday over Valparaiso and then lost to Kent State and Kentucky over the weekend. I guess it turns out staying up until 2 AM and then playing the next day isn't good for your baseball mojo. Yet it's hard to cry bad luck when the two teams that beat you were the two who played more than two games worth of baseball in one evening.

In the end, this is just how baseball works. If your hitting goes cold for any stretch in a tournament style setup, you don't have much room for error. Everything that went right for the Boilermakers in the Big Ten Tournament went wrong for them in the big tourney.

The Boilers would have needed to beat Kentucky and then almost immediately play Kent State again. If they had beaten Kent, they would have needed to beat them again today in order to advance to the Super Regional. Kent St went on to eliminate Kentucky and advance.

Also, as disappointing as this is, if you're curious as to the quality of the teams Purdue lost to, the Boilermakers wound up 45-14 on the season, Kentucky was 45-18 and Kent State is 44-17.

This terrific season with conference titles and award-winning performances will hopefully serve as a starting point for a consistently-successful program. Sometimes one really promising year is all it takes. With the Boilers' new ballpark opening next season (assume no more delays), the future is bright for Purdue baseball. 

Kent State Beats Up Boilers in Gary

Purdue wasn't done beating Valpo until Saturday morning...and they looked fatigued tonight v. Kent State.

Valpo had a pretty lousy night last night- lots of fielding and throwing errors on routine plays...and Purdue took advantage of it. Tonight, Purdue made a couple critical errors, mostly in the second inning, and Kent State made them pay to the tune of a 7-3 loss.

They didn't hit well, didn't field well and didn't pitch well...other than that, the game was great for a Boiler squad that spent much of the second half of the season ranked in the teens.

Now, their work becomes extremely difficult. First, they'll play Kentucky at 4:00 pm tomorrow...If they win, they get to play Kent State at 8:00 pm.  IF they win that game, they'll play Kent State Monday at 8:00. One would think KSU's rotation would be pretty wrecked following a 21 inning game...but, having a pitcher earn the complete game win helps settle everything down.

Perhaps with a full night's sleep, the Boilers can play like they're capable of playing...but winning three-straight in two days, versus this level of competition is a lot to ask from any team.

Purdue Baseball This Friday Night -- Like You Have Anything Better To Do

And who doesn't love Gary, IN at night? Amirite??

Regardless, just put on your bulletproof vest and head on up I-65 (or down it, if you're a Chicagoan) and support your Boilers as they take on Valpo on Friday night in the start of the NCAA baseball tourney. Your Boilers are technically hosting the regional but thanks to "construction delays," their new stadium -- which was supposed to open this season -- is not yet ready. Well done, as always, Purdue athletic department! (And spare me any excuse-making for them -- I'm sure it's everybody else's fault, as usual.)

It's good to see ESPN is consistent towards the Boilermakers across all sports. This article discussing the seeds and matchups has nary a mention of Purdue -- though, interestingly, Purdue's opponent, Valparaiso, is mentioned as being in a regional for the first time since 1968.

Here's hoping the Boilers make enough noise so that they simply cannot be ignored.

The schedule for each regional is here. The winner of the Gary regional will play the winner of the Eugene, Oregon, regional, meaning that if the seeds hold, our Boilers get to face Oregon again. Like we haven't seen enough of those quacks in recent years.

"Home" of the Boilermakers!

Just to clarify: NCAA tourney thoughts

There are a lot of people on Twitter who seem to not understand what J was talking about last night; so here's the deal:

Neither of us pulled too hard for the B1G last night.

In short, we don't have a ton of love for the conference.

A few years ago, J and I discussed how Purdue people tend to root for the conference when the Boilers have been knocked out of the tourney or during bowl games.  But J started seeing the error of blindly following the conference when living in SEC country as SEC shills would root for the entire conference rather than their alma mater.  I think this behavior pissed him off, so he made an about face.

I, on the other hand, have had a problem with the conference for a long time.  Let's not forget that in the first 50 years or so of the existence of the conference, teams like aOSU would get special treatment.  For instance, those teams wouldn't have to play road games but about once in every four years when playing conference foes.  It's a bit easier to dominate opponents when you never have to leave the friendly confines, don't you think.  But that's an old axe to grind...let's fast-forward a few years.

When all of the problems came up a few seasons ago about aOSU players receiving cars, tattoos and gear in exchange for SWAG, one of their defenses were that the kids didn't have enough money because of NCAA rules and regulations.  Nearly immediately, Delany and company started using their soap box to try to get some more money in the hands of athletes...the timing just kind of stunk.

On top of this, aOSU's history of cheating makes me dislike them a lot...and Wisconsin's style of basketball a few years ago, which set college basketball back 30 years or so, coupled with their unlikable fan base forces me to almost-never root for Bucky.  And most-recently, MSU players and coaches alike seem to have come together to brush a very serious situation under the rug...while the media tells us how squeaky-clean Sparty really is...And then, there is the shady summer of '10.

But honestly, last night was an awful night to pick whom to root for in the NCAA tournament.

aOSU v. Cincy
Outside of Aaron Craft's defense and his blush-covered cheeks, what's there to love in this match-up?

L'Ville v. MSU
Old Slime v. New Slime

Wisc v. 'Cuse
I rooted for Bo...see where that got me??

Fla v. Marq
Once again, thanks for nothing, Marquette.  That might be the last time I root for you guys.

Rooting for the state of Wisconsin was the easiest thing to do last night.  A Wisconsin win would have insured no more entitled whining from Boeheim in my TV.  Sadly, that didn't work out because Taylor and co. have no offense other than shooting 22 footers.  Next up, I rooted for Marquette because the Golden Eagles' coach and I look like brothers (so handsome)...and Donavan is a dirty gangster who made a bad deal with the devil to get two national titles.  Root for the other four?? I'd only feel dirty and disgusting this morning.  It's best to stay neutral...something that I clearly am not a fan of.

Tonight, do yourself a favor and root for the underdogs, sans IU of course, and Baylor instead of X.  It'll be the easiest way to respect yourself in the morning.

Now, specifically addressing the IU v. Kentucky game-  There are Purdue fans out there who say they must root for IU...Huh?

Clearly, these people don't live in Indiana and never get on the interwebnets.  I can tell you that the last thing that this state needs is all news being pushed aside for yet another week of Crean's shiny forehead being on the HD screen.  Don't get me wrong, I can't stand Calipari...but all of this year's wins will be vacated by 2015, so none of this will matter in the not-too-distant future.  The best case scenario is IU gets lambasted tonight and none of it counts after Calipari has headed to the NBA (again).  That way, no one really wins...and the ideal scenario occurs: everyone loses.

The Morning After

It doesn't feel any less lousy this morning. The Boilermakers still lost a game that they led nearly wire-to-wire. They lost a game where they shot a better percentage -- albeit with a serious dropoff in the second half -- than a presumably much better team. They lost a game where, perhaps most frustratingly for me, they didn't force Kansas to make a play, to win it. Kansas simply took Purdue's turnovers and long rebounds and won the game with breakaways. Sure, they count just as much and the Jayhawks won and move on, but it doesn't feel like it was supposed to end like this.

We all knew there was a good chance that this would be the seniors' final game. But after 38 minutes of basketball, it just felt like it couldn't end now. When you lead a game the entire time and -- to their credit -- find ways to edge the lead back up each time the powerhouse Jayhawks cut into it. In fact, the lead did get to double digits in the second half. And in most years, with a Matt Painter coached team, if I said you had a double digit lead anytime in the second half against pretty much anybody, I think you'd take it.

So many odd things happen in the tournament. Rob goes for 22 in the first half but just 4 in the second. However, that can be credited to Kansas, who while they were outcoached by the Purdue staff, clearly is good enough to go into the locker room and say, "Let's guard Hummel and not let him beat us... let's make someone else beat us." It was a smart approach and it worked.

In other games recently, it might have been Terone Johnson who beat them, and Zero showed with 10 points in the second half, but his teardrop was just not splashing like it has of late. In other games, it might have been the little man, Lewis Jackson, who has gone for 18 (vs St. Mary's), 17 (vs IU), 20 (vs Minn) this season, for example. But Lew's patented high-speed, running layup was just refusing to fall, slowly rolling off the rim at least three separate times. Lew shot 2/11 for the game. How often does that happen? (Not often.)

It could have been Ryne, another favorite of BS. But Ryno was only 1/2 from the floor last night, hitting his only real shot and just missing the last-second prayer that, quite frankly, as about as good a look as Purdue could expect in the situation they were in. Who could have expected that Ryne would have just three points in two tourney games? It's unusual and not something you could have predicted.

Purdue had trouble on the glass all year. Yet here, against two of the better big men in the nation, the Boilers were only outrebounded 35-32 -- damn near a wash. And when you look at the starting five's rebounds for the Boilermakers you see this column of numbers: 9-6-3-8-4. Guys were gutting it out and doing everything they could.

Sandi Marcius, for all the abuse he's taken from Purdue fans, played hard and did what he was asked. Sandi had 11 DNPs in the Boilers' final 21 games. Yet when he was asked to be a body, use his fouls and grab rebounds, Sandi didn't sulk, pout or give a lackadaisical effort. He gave an effort to be proud of, because that's what Boilermakers do.

The effort was recognized on the other side, too, as Bill Self clearly had loads of respect for the Boilers. Interestingly to me also was the way Self's players quite obviously respected Purdue's effort and Rob Hummel in particular. Those guys didn't seem like a great group of dudes but in the handshake line, Jayhawk after Jayhawk stopped Rob to do more than give the typical "good game." He scared them and almost beat them single-handedly and those guys wanted to let him know they respected it. 

I saw some raw emotions after the game last night on the instantaneous medium that is Twitter. I stopped looking after a few trolling IU losers did their usual sad-life, antagonism routine, but before I did -- immediately after the game -- I saw some harsh criticisms directed at a couple guys in particular that I'd like to address here.

Lewis Jackson -- For anyone who wants to batter Lew for those final two possesstions, especially the second to last one where he ended it with a turnover, I guess you're entitled. But the isolation play was called for Lew, a senior who has been as much a part of Purdue's successes over the past four years as anyone. Lew, a senior who has repeatedly shown an ability to use his quickness to get a layup even when, as Steve Kerr put it during the broadcast, the other team knows it's coming.

Purdue had been shooting cold in the second half and the Jayhawks defense had, as mentioned, bottled up Rob. So why not keep it in the hands of your senior leader? No, Lewis didn't come through in that particular moment. But do not let that cloud your memories of all the times Lew has come through and all the games Purdue won in large part due to his contribution.

He's one of ours and he sold out and risked his future back health for the old gold and black. Do not forget that.

Matt Painter -- I don't quite understand this, but there are those out there who seem to think Painter isn't a good coach. Maybe it's the drama we saw last year and the resulting bigger contract dollars. Regardless, if you think Matt Painter "cost" Purdue that game, then I don't think you know a whole lot about basketball. Throughout this game, I kept thinking that if Purdue was indeed able to pull this win off, that I'd be writing about this game as Matt Painter's best performance as Purdue head coach. And you know what? I still kind of think it is.

Matt even got the Jayhawks to change their game. Withey, the 7-foot center, played well below his averages in minutes, points and rebounds, largely because Coach Self and company decided to go with a smaller, guard-heavy lineup at times -- something that we as Purdue fans were fine with.

Coach Matty took the parts that he had at his disposal -- parts that did not match up in any way to the bigger, skilled Jayhawks -- and found a way to make it work. He found a way to get this team to rebound with Kansas. He found a way to get contributions from guys who -- as mentioned -- were no-shows or one-minute players for the past couple of months. If that's not good coaching, I don't know what is.