By the Numbers: Northwestern Analysis, Iowa Forecast

You may have noticed the basketball-like substance on the floor of Mackey Arena Sunday. You may also have noticed that it came from the Good Guys and not the valiant opposition ... in no small part because a) Painter seems to be caring less about results and more about lessons, which strangely leads to better results sometimes, and b) Northwestern apparently angered the basketball gods by nearly making the tournament last year, so every contributing senior has been struck down in response; only Reggie Hearn has recovered.

kenpom had this as a Purdue win going into the game, and it played out basically as a more extreme version of what the numbers would have suggested.

That's not supposed to be
close to even, Wildcats.

• Rebounding. Northwestern is actually above-average in height – their effective height is +2.5, 37th in the country – but that's related more to defense than anything else. Since Jared Swopshire went down for the season against Iowa, they've been left with short players and young players: the tallest, 7'0" Alex Olah, posts just a 6.3 OR% and 15.0 DR%. For context, in slightly fewer minutes, 6'5" Rapheal Davis has 6.8% and 15.1% respectively. (Translation: tall Wildcat needs practice.)
  Accordingly, Purdue destroyed Northwestern on the boards, 48-23*, with a whopping 48.3 OR% (see graphic; 5 of those 14 were team boards, which I suspect means some Wildcat knocked them out of bounds or fouled). Davis had 1 OR and 6 DR for Purdue; Olah had 2 OR and 0 DR. Purdue also posted an 81.0 DR%. (Translation: Purdue with the rebound.)
• Defense. Height correlates with defense in several areas, but it doesn't cause better defense, and Northwestern has shown that in Big Ten play, dropping to dead last in defensive efficiency (111.0). Yes, this comes from things like losing by 15 to Nebraska and by 28(!!) to Wisconsin, both slow-tempo teams like the 'Cats.
  In Evanston, Purdue was "held" to just 1 point per possession; this time they posted 1.16 PPP, and yes, they scored a bit over 16% more points than in the first meeting. Purdue shot .556 from two and .467 from three. (In related news, Ronnie Johnson did not attempt a three.) This is not good if you are on defense. If Purdue had hit their free throws (A.J.?), it probably would have been a 40-point game.
• Offense. Yes, the Wildcats forced 15 turnovers for a 23.4 TO%, well over Purdue's conference average of 19.0%, but they simply couldn't convert them ... shooting .316(!!!) from two will do that to you. Add in .222 from three and a Boiler-like .583 from the line, and you get a blowout loss: fewer possessions (thanks to the 19.0 OR%) and few conversions. Hearn: 3-10, 0-1 from three, 8 points in 30 minutes.

Fortunately for Northwestern, Penn State fills the gap between impending blowouts at the hands of Ohio State (home) and Michigan State (away). Like Purdue, Northwestern must steal one of those games to have a fighting chance at .500; unlike Purdue, they now seem completely incapable of doing so.

The win stopped a three-game slide that dropped Purdue down to 97th; right now they're 78th, where they were right before the first Northwestern game. The Iowa game still looks like you'd expect if a tournament-bound** team were hosting a sub-.500 team: 80-20 for Iowa. Things to watch for if Purdue's going to pull this one off:

More shots for the guy
on the far right, plz.

• Iowa's transition game. The Hawkeyes are 8th in offensive efficiency in Big Ten play (100.4), 10th in eFG (44.2%), and 11th in 3P% (28.6). Get back on defense, make them run what half-court options they have, especially if they go to Josh Oglesby (32-121 from three, .264; his eFG is 38.5%, which is stat-speak for "bad"). Purdue's two-point defense (44.3%) is third in the conference; there shouldn't be many good options when the defense gets back.
• Fouls. Iowa leads the conference at .732 from the line. They shot .867 against Nebraska ... but only had 15 attempts on 13 Cornhusker fouls. Purdue allowed 27 FTA in the overtime win in Mackey; best not to repeat that performance if possible.
  Inside fouls were a problem in the first meeting: AJ fouled out in 30 minutes and Travis Carroll had 3 fouls in 7 minutes. Aside from maybe Adam Woodbury (20-38, .526), no Hawkeye is really a liability at the line. Don't commit cheap fouls.
• Shot selection. Purdue shot just .423 from two in Mackey; Iowa's in-conference defensive efficiency is much better than Northwestern's, and in the road games against teams on either side of Iowa, Purdue shot .426 against Michigan State and .438 against Michigan. It'll be as important as ever that players move without the ball on offense: poor shots generally don't lead to points in this situation.

kenpom predicts a 71-62 win for Iowa; a Purdue win would be more of a confidence booster than anything else (an NIT bid probably requires another regular-season win plus a first-round BTT win) and pretty much forces Iowa to win the BTT to make the NCAA field.

* EsPN's numbers do not include team rebounds, which is silly because they do count.
** Yes, Iowa's not currently even on the bubble. Yes, losing to Nebraska is bad. However, 8 of their 10 losses are to solid teams (Wichita State's righted themselves and look to be in good shape; VT is Iowa's other bad loss), and a first-round BTT win would likely give Iowa 20. 8-10 in this conference should be enough to get them in.

Boilermaker Basketball: It was just Northwestern, but still Progress

John Terhune

It looked like a different team tonight in Mackey Arena and by that I mean, it actually looked like a team.  Purdue beat a depleted Northwestern squad 74-43, a stark contrast from the first appearance in Evanston which was the second game in the Boilers downhill spiral.

Tonight was the Terone show.  He shot 9-16 from the field, 4-5 from downton, had 6 rebounds, and a steal for 22 points in 28 minutes.  Terone could have probably dropped 30 tonight, but unlike Clappy, Painter benches his starters when up 30 in the second half.

The Boilermakers have averaged just 10.8 assists since the curb-stomping in Mackey by the Hoosiers and just 13 on the season.  Tonight they had 18 and put on the best passing performance of the season.

Purdue also shot very well tonight and well over the season average.  The Boilermakers didn't have a starter shoot under 50 percent and shot 52.9 percent from the field and 46.7 percent from beyond the arc tonight.

The excellent shooting, the excellent passing, an overall better hustle on defense, combined with a poor shooting Northwestern, allowed for one of Purdue's best performances of the season and by far the best since the West Virginia game.

Unfortunately for the Boilermakers they had to play in front of a lack-luster Paint Crew, but that is partially their own fault for the effort given the past few games.  That being said, it's still inexcusable to have that much of the student section missing.  I understand that it's exam week, I have exams myself this week, but just take two hours out of your study and show up.  Grab your beverage of choice, walk to the stadium and be loud.  I love the Paint Crew and the ones that showed up were trying their best, but what makes the Paint Crew so intimidating is the mass amounts of people.  Most of you will only be in school for four or five years, so take advantage of it.

Tonight I was impressed by the performance of the team as a unit, something that I haven't said often this year.  DJ Byrd was passing off on shots that were not high percentage and Anthony Johnson was off on his shot, but kept trucking and making good passes.  He looked like a point guard today.

Painter didn't start Hammons today, which I totally agree with.  Chooch has played hard the past few games and deserved the start.  Hammons only played 12 minutes tonight, a message was sent.

I must say even thought it was against Northwestern, I left Mackey happy tonight. I thought the effort was there and the team looked very good tonight.  Hopefully this is something they can build on to propel them the rest of the season.

Tonight looked like Purdue Basketball, something we've all been waiting for.  It really showed me that this team is going to be good eventually, we just need to have patience and have faith in Painter.

There are only two games left in Mackey Arena this season, both against program ranked in the top 10 at one point this season, so get to Mackey, be loud and CHOO CHOO MUTHAS.

Grabbing Loose Balls Against The Purple-Headed Warriors

Sometimes it's easy to remember what you don't like about an opponent. Other times it's harder. Wherever you fall on the spectrum, BS is here to help. In a new feature (and you know how well we stick to new features), we'll help you figger out why you should hate Purdue's next opponent, mainly using third grade playground insults and other such high-brow stuff you've come to love BS for. 

Up today: The Northwestern Wildcats.

What's to hate about the Mildcats, you might ask? I mean, they've never even been to the NCAA Tournament! Ha!

Oh wait, well, that might be one thing to hate. For those of you who identify with the conference as a whole, SEC-style, you should have an issue with this. Few major conferences (uhh, actually, maybe none) have a team that has never appeared in an NCAA Tourney bracket. Their ESPN page simply lacks the little box below the conference standings that displays their "Tournament History." I guess ESPN exercised a rare moment of discretion and elected to show nothing at all rather than a bunch of zeros and "None" entries.

OMHR Iowa hates and mocks Northwestern mercilessly, despite being routinely handed humbling (to schools that understand humility) losses on both grass and hardwood. So maybe this is more reason to hate OMHR? I don't know. Nor do I care. Hate 'em both. Hell, they have something of a little rivalry, where OMHR refers to them as just Northwestern, yet seems to always find a banana peel next to the just Northwestern bench. Yeah, that's a hatable rivalry. You two kittens are cute the way you fight over that ball of yarn.

Northwestern is for quitters. A couple of years ago, the Cats had Kevin Coble, who appeared to be a good enough white stiff on a program loaded with white stiffs to lead them to a middling seed in the NCAA tournament and a Thursday afternoon bludgeoning in March at an exotic locale like Boise or Spokane. But then Kevin Coble did what any of us would do if we had to wear a purple outfit in front of our friends. He quit. 

Please share your reasons to hate Northwestern below.

4 PM, tomorrow, ESPN or ESPN2.

PU-NU Predictorama

Wildcats take aim at the Boilermakers...in PRIME TIME BAY-BEE!!

So here we are. On the eve of the start of conference play for our Boilermakers and already it kind of feels like the season is over in some ways. And that's a bad thing, to be sure. Make no mistake -- we'll be supporting our boys all the way to the finish line, but there's a pall over the program right now and tomorrow night's game can go a long way towards improving things or pushing them further over the edge. What do your friendly, neighborhood BS'ers think?

Boilerdowd sez:

Heading to the beach for the afternoon...this is abridged.


Henry runs effectively and the offense moves the ball in small chunks...but will struggle to score points. At the same time, NU will bait Purdue with the dink and dunk then exploit the linebackers and safeties after they creep to the line again and again.

Bonus: look for a big failure on Special Teams to put the game out of reach.

NU 38
Purdue 17

Tim sez:

Equally short and bitter and to the point.


Purdue cannot score.
Purdue cannot prevent other team from scoring.

Northwestern shouldn't even be in the same realm as Purdue but in fact will dominate the game and irritate me thoroughly.

Northwestern 32
Purdue 17

J sez:

Everything we've seen up to now points to an outcome like my cohorts are suggesting. However, I don't think the season is over for guys like Ryan Kerrigan. I think the defense comes out strong and the team is fired up. If they have it in them to fight for the reputation and perhaps ultimate survival of their coach -- who they all seem to love -- this is the time. Saturday night game, under the lights, against a ranked 5-0 team. A team, by the way, who is due for a stinker themselves.

Purdue 27
NU 24

Which of Fitz's Three Kinds of People Are You?

For those who caught the end of Northwestern's come-from-behind win over IU, you may have seen Coach Fitzgerald's postgame interview where he simply said he told the guys at halftime that "there are three kinds of people." He didn't elaborate at the time, and they joked in the Big Ten studios that they wanted to know what those three kinds were.

Well, Fitz elaborated via Twitter and, well, that dude is a meathead.

Seriously, did he look around his office, desperate for a motivational ploy?

"Hmmmm, I could say they should do it for the fans, but there aren't any fans here..."

Wow, is all I can say. So the above photo is just for Fitzy (in all its "that/who" confusion), since I'm sure he'd love a framed copy. He could fist-bump it every day.

Northwestern a Better Football Destination Than UND?

Pat Fitzgerald has re-upped with Northwestern and is now under contract through the 2015 season. Fitzgerald quietly guided the Cats to a solid 9-4 season last year despite purple being their primary color.

What I love -- LOVE -- about Adam Rittenberg's analysis of the situation is that it appears that for a young, Irish, up-and-coming coach who is from the Chicago area, coaching at Notre Dame wouldn't be all that appealling. Fitz loves Northwestern (I know!) and says that's where he wants to be.

It's going to be so much fun when Fat Charlie gets fired from Notre Dame and they have to hire their seventh choice and then claim he was the top choice all along, whomever he turns out to be.

Here Kitty Kitty Kitty -- LTP Stops By

As is our occasional treat for your true fans of the game, one of the things we try to do sometimes is actually break down the games, matchups, etc. When that gets more frustrating than high-school dry-humping, we resort to childish tactics, such as pictures of boobs and photo-essays on the state of Purdue football. Well, this week we agreed to do a little Q&A with the biggest pussy Cat supporter in the blogosphere, LTP. Our answers to his questions are posted thusly.

So it's only fair that we got to ask some inane questions to him, which, as is his way, he answered seriously and with real analysis. God love him. Here we go....

BS: What do you make of the fact that more than one of us have referred to NW as "the worst 5-0 [now 5-1] team in the country"? Any truth to it, in your humble, impartial opinion?

LTP: Unless Duke and Iowa continue to win, yes, there is a grain of truth to it. However, I'm a little sensitive to the word "worst" (see pre-1995 football history) and would like to spin it to be more of a "least impressive 5-1." This weekend's outcome will go a long way towards modifying that statement. If we could beat Purdue and then Indiana to be 7-1 with MN, Ohio State, Michigan and Illinois left, I think the record would be vindicated. We have yet to win impressively against a Division I team, although I'll take ANY Big Ten win I can get. I think Northwestern fans have finally raised expectations to the point where we can actually be not overly joyed to be 5-1. Our struggles on offense are puzzling and downright unacceptable for such a senior-laden team. I also think our defense may be the underrated storyline of the Big Ten season, along with Minnesota's "resurgence".

BS: What do you see in Purdue that makes you optimistic for this week's game? Or what makes you concerned?

LTP: It is like holding up a freakin' mirror. I look at the horrid rushdefense statistics for Purdue and visions of Tyrell getting 200 yardsdancing in my head. Then, I actually look at what you've done against Penn State and Ohio State and get scared we're not going to break 20 points. This then makes me look at your similar inability to convert#2-ranked passing offense (yardage) into points and I feel good,because our pass rush has been phenomenal (tied with Penn State formost sacks). However, Painter is always a series away from regainingthe magic and based on recent NU-Purdue history sans Kyle Orton, I getscared that somehow history will come into play. Kory Sheets' gamewinning juke over CMU gives me trepidation as that is the exact kindof move that has us surrending big plays to good backs. Amazinglythough, most NU fans will tell you we feel much more confident in our defense's ability to win the game if the offense and special teams canrefrain from consistently giving you the ball at our 30 yard line.

BS: Are the Boilermakers that bad that we're your homecoming opposition? Why do you think this decision is/was made?

LTP: As Northwestern fans we are experts on homecoming analysis as we lead the free world in homecoming games planned. Once again this year, we lead the conference in homecoming games played on the road (3) with the lovely September homecoming at Iowa, which to me, is offensive. Homecoming games are meant to be played in October. We have two home games in October and the decision for these games are made two-to-three years in advance (see: on heels of last time we beat Purdue - 2004, 2005). It was either you or Michigan State. Likely coin flip. Don't look too much into it, because if we used history, we would've chosen Michigan State as we have a much better head-to-head record (5-5) since 1995 against them, then you (4-8).

BS: Will there be a Purple-out in Evanston this season? And on that subject, have you noticed that PSU bloggers and fans think they invented the whole "[insert-color-here]-out" concept?

LTP: Last week, the NU students had a Purple Haze which was the most impressive I've seen the section, in terms of size and color. EVERYONE was in purple which is rare for us. The estimates are that there were close to 6,000 fans in the student section, which, when you consider there are only 7,500 students is a remarkable turnout. The rest of the stadium was a joke as my grandstanding on (lack of) attendance has fallen on mostly deaf ears, except for the newspaper writers in Chicago who have picked up on it. Attendance will be terrible this weekend - expect 32,000-34,000 in a 47,000-seat venue. That INCLUDES the homecoming bump. Ohio State is sold out, but it will be 55/45 NU:Ohio State fans, but the school is planning a Purple "Out" for the Illini game, our last of the season, which is estimated to be close to sold out and will likely if we're both in position for a key bowl game. Bottom-line for Purdue fans, plenty of seats still available and this will be the most neutral crowd you'll face on the road all year long.

BS: If the LTP readership played the BS readership in a game of softball, who would win?

LTP: BS. As you mentioned, your fans are fat. Fat people hit the longball. However, LTP's readership would have much better statisticalanalysis and thorough, cogent rationales for how we lost the game.

BS Reader Poll -- Game 7

After running through the gauntlet of @ND, vs PSU and @OSU, the Boilers then will face the always unpredictable Northwestern squad. In some years, this is a nice, welcome break from the tough Big Ten schedule. But more and more often, it’s not a a break at all, as NW continues to put scares into teams every year and occasionally puts together a somewhat complete – and always surprising to the critics – season.

Lake the Posts continues their grassroots effort to convince everyone to worry about Northwestern football this year. Is worrying about them warranted? Or is this a walkover? Vote it up.

Game 7
October 18, 2008
Purdue at Northwestern
OTT Preview




Vote on other games!

Handsome Lad Says Knight Should Coach Northwestern

The strikingly handsome and debonair gentleman you see pictured here isn't just a sexy piece of eye candy, ladies... that's right, he can write, too! More than just a hat rack, chickies!

Mike Hutsell of the news and tribune says that Bob Knight isn't done coaching and that Northwestern would be the perfect place for him. I can't argue this phenominal logic -- what struggling program wouldn't want an over-the-hill dinosaur who is a constant PR nightmare and a generally all-around embarrassing blowhard? And from Knight's point of view, of course it's a match made in heaven! An 0-10 (in Big Ten play) school... no where to go but up!

Let's also take a look at some of Mike Hutsell's points, as he paints us a picture with his words and makes it clear that Bob Knight would be purrrrr-fect in Evanston.

I don’t think Bob Knight is done, not even close.

Whoops, poor punctuation there, Mike, right out of the gate. But I hear you barkin', big dog! Now tell me why.

I can’t buy the fact that Knight’s career would end the way it did. As a footnote to the Super Bowl while spending the twilight of his career playing in a half-empty arena at a football school in Texas.

Hmm, well, where to begin here... first, does Mike have an editor? Because this is nonsense. First of all, Bob Knight retiring isn't a "footnote to the Super Bowl." If Rodney Harrison went out and had a stripper inject some HGH into his ass, THAT would be a "footnote to the Super Bowl." Also, Bob Knight hasn't "played" any basketball for Texas Tech. Oh, and Texas Tech is a "football school"? Really? That's funny, because, well... no, it isn't.

That’s not Bob Knight’s style. No way, not even close.

Yes, we covered that you don't think he's done.

Whatever the reason for Bob Knight’s oddly-timed step-aside from a Texas Tech program he crafted into a consistent, if unspectacular winner, it just doesn’t make any sense for him to leave now.

Yes, again... we covered that you don't think he's done. Also? Since I'm in a mood to be a bitchy, nit-picker, what the f-ck is an "oddly-timed step-aside"? Sounds like someone trying to line dance and doing it wrong. And also, the comma should go after "unspectacular," not after "winner."

Anyway... three sentences later:

There’s no way Knight’s done.

Um, really? That's amazing because I haven't heard you the FIRST THREE TIMES YOU SAID IT!

There’s a perfect fit out there — if it ever comes open.

Oh, so calling a job that isn't open "perfect" IS a bit of a stretch, yes?

It would be an opening in the Big Ten, it would be a job that would allow Knight to recruit the type of players he thrives on coaching,

Untalented white guys?

and it would be a job in a hot spot filled with some of his most ardent supporters who would flock to his arena every tipoff of every night.

Every tipoff of every night. Brilliant prose. What does it mean, though? When DOES the night "tipoff"? We may never know.

Change is always a possibility at a school that has lost every conference game it has played by at least 10 points, and tell me turning “The General” wouldn’t be a shot in the arm for the a program that has defined the doldrums of college hoops throughout its feeble existence.

Tell you "turning the General"... what? And just look at the rest of that sentence... "wouldn't be a shot in the arm for the a program..." What the hell IS this gobbeldy-gook? I'll ask again... don't you have an editor, Mike??

Then a couple paragraphs later, he hits us with this fragment, standing all alone like it's a sentence or something profound:

And in Chicagoland, where the Indiana alumni base who already turn Welsh-Ryan Arena into Assembly Hall North anytime the Hoosiers visit campus.

What? That's not even a sentence.

I also love that this is a "two-page" article and you have to click to keep going and then this is everything on the second page... bring it home, Mike!

Oh yeah, there’s that whole Indiana thing, too.

Northwestern has played Charlie Brown to the Hoosiers’ Lucy for years and at no point in the history of the program have the Wildcats gone into Bloomington and become a winner on Branch McCracken Court.

Tell me Knight wouldn’t live to be the guy who becomes the first to make that happen.

I don't think Bob Knight could make that happen... nor do I think he cares to make it happen. In addition, Mike Hutsell, you are a true pioneer of sportswriting and space should be made on the set of the Sports Reporters every Sunday morning for you.

Seriously, this article looks like a report a fifth-grader from Bloomington would write.

Boilers Reach 18-10 and Confuse Announcers

Despite Northwestern's comeback, largely fueled by stinky, white-man armpits, Purdue held on for another road win on Saturday to move to 18-10 on the season and doubling their win total from last season.

Towards the end of the game, Tarrance Crump went to the line. My parents were both at my house because we were doing some renovations and my mother suddenly says, "Why is he shooting a third free throw?"

I hadn't seen the play so I distractedly responded, "Maybe he was shooting a three."

"No, he wasn't shooting," mom replied.

"Maybe there was a lane violation," I immediately deduced.

This seemingly natural train of thought by an average college basketball fan like me shouldn't seem like much. But, apparently, it qualifies me to be a broadcaster for the ESPN Plus regional team. Take a look at this analysis from the broadcasting team of this game -- high comedy. Apparently, play-by-play man Wayne Larrivee just started making up rules.

Purdue now closes with home games against Minnesota and Northwestern, giving them a very legitimate chance to close the regular season with twenty wins heading into the Big Ten Tournament.