MSU Predicto

Tim says:
What the heck? I'm all in. Let's go bowling.

Michigan State's defense can't stop the Purdue offense. Only the Purdue offense can do that. If the defense can contain the Spartan running game (and that's a big if), then there's a good chance for a victory. If Bolden can carry the day and the offense can control the clock with long drives, as we saw last week, then Purdue wins the game.

Wisconsin and Michigan running backs tore through the line like J Money tears through a big bowl of whole grain toasted fiber flakes. Or is it the fiber flakes that tear through J Money? Regardless, the defense MUST do a better job of slowing, if not stopping, the running game.

I expect a pretty high scoring affair tomorrow.

I'm repeating myself time and time again, but if Purdue can play up to their potential then they will win the game. I believe we'll see that this week.

Purdue 33
MSU 28

J says:
Big weekend for Purdue athletics. Basketball starts tonight and then tomorrow our boys take on MSU at Ross-Ade on senior day. Purdue needs this win in as desperate a way as you can need a win. Lose and the season is effectively over and, while it wouldn't be a complete disappointment of a year, we would all be sad for a while because they're now one win away from playing IU for not only the bucket, but for a bowl game. And making a bowl after a 1-5 start would be yoooge for the program.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Michigan State is going to be one of the toughest games they've had yet this year. MSU has some big uglies, they've got a potent offense and they play SOME defense. This isn't Michigan's secondary the Duke will be throwing against. Nor will it be Illinois' offense the Boilers are trying to stop. No, MSU is probably the best 5-5 team you're going to come across. They were my sleeper pick at the start of the season and, while a lot of people have been looking at this home game as a win for a few weeks (simply because it looked "easier" than trips to Madison and Ann Arbor), it most certainly is not.

How big a factor is playing at home? Well, it looked like no factor at all against NIU and NU. It looked like something of a factor against OSU. So we're back to the same spot we've been in all season, which is that it's nearly impossible to make a pick you feel confident about when it comes to the 2009 Purdue football team.

This is an emotional squad playing in an emotional game. Senior day for a lot of guys and we all have seen how much Coach Hope cares about these guys. They will be fired up and, hopefully, that correlates into being ready to play. One thing we've seen in pretty much every game outside of Wisconsin -- this team never looks afraid of anybody. Elliott is playing some confident football right now, Bolden seems to be getting right, Valentin and Smith have developed into the guys we knew they could be, and even the coaching decisions are looked less and less often boneheaded. It feels like things are smoother than they've been in a while and, of course, the team has won 3 of 4 and in that time has broken some major negative strings (losses to ranked opponents, losses on the road, losses at Michigan, etc.).

So how much of a factor is confidence? Senior day? Emotion? Aren't these things that bored sportswriters tend to make more out of than they're worth?

This game is critical to MSU as well, as they need a win to become bowl eligible. But so did Michigan. Gah!

In the end, you have to look at talent. Michigan State, in my opinion, is more talented than Purdue. And most of the time, talent wins out. Yes, Purdue took down an immensely talented OSU team. So maybe we've already had our one anomaly for this season. It kills me to say this, but given the up and down nature of this team, I think they're due to break hearts again.

MSU 33
Purdue 29

boilerdowd says:
J has been secretly dating Mark Dantonio since August. I'm sorry, but I couldn't hold it in any longer. His long sighs and uncomfortable innuendo have finally led me to reveal the truth...I just can't stay silent anymore.

Alright, that was all a lie, but unlike J, I am not in love with the Spartans. I do like Dantonio and think, like Hope, he's got some mean in him, which is entertaining, he can recruit and his teams generally look well-prepared.

They're in the top-three of scoring offense...and the top-4 of the conference in scoring defense...solid, if not good. But their offensive numbers have gotten fat off of the likes of Montana State and Western Michigan. But their defense is legit and that's worrisome. They've held opponents under 21 points six times this season. But games aren't played on paper.

They're a good team...and, like Purdue, I think they see this game as a make or break game for their season. Teams that rely heavily on the run succeed versus this Purdue team...teams that rely on a pass-first offense don't fair as well. That's my key to the game.

Defensively, I think the turnover battle will swing in Purdue's favor on the shoulders of a few interceptions. I look for Bolden to have success catching the ball, but not much on the ground and Smith to go for more than 100...second shoot-out in two weeks.

Purdue 38
MSU 33

To your call once more we rally, Alma Mater, hear our praise;
Where the Wabash spreads its valley, Filled with joy our voices raise.
From the skies in swelling echoes Come the cheers that tell the tale,
Of your vict'ries and your heroes, Hail Purdue! We sing all hail!

Hail, hail to old Purdue! All hail to our old gold and black!
Hail, hail to old Purdue! Our friendship may she never lack,
Ever grateful ever true, Thus we raise our song anew,
Of the days we've spent with you, All hail our own Purdue.

I'll be spending the evening with Erin...

I'm about to go out on a date with my lady friend, Ms. Andrews...I'll let you guys discuss the game details.

Boilers by 5.

Final Shot: MSU Prediction

Our Boilers head north to East Lansing tomorrow. MSU will be the last ranked opponent Tiller will have to...errrrrrr...gets to face as the head coach of my alma mater's football team. In the last 18 similar contests, his team's lost all of them. So this is it...a monkey can be knocked off of the old guy's back with a victory, and Purdue's razor-thin Motor City Bowl hopes can stay alive...but is it going to happen? Here's what we think:

J Says:
If Painter starts, we lose in a listless fashion. If Siller starts, I think we lose in a more exciting fashion.

The only reason I hesitate picking MSU at all is that they MIGHT be a little bit of a paper tiger. Consider how poorly they played last weekend, despite their win. Wisky is just not good -- let's get that out of the way. MSU rushed for a whopping 25 yards and Hoyer had a sub-50% completion percentage. Will they do this against Purdue's jelly-donut defense? Probably not. But it's worth keeping in mind if you happen to be watching and see potential.

In the end, though, as much as I want to be optimistic again, Purdue football doesn't beat ranked teams anymore. Until they do, how could you possibly pick them? Especially on the road?

MSU: 24

Purdue: 16

Tim Says:
I think Siller is a little shaky in his first road start. The defense will continue to hemorrhage points. The weather is expected to be cold and rainy, which could hamper both offenses. I think they'll still put up some points though.

Purdue has won the last two times in East Lansing and needs to win out to go to bowling. On the other hand they've lost 386 times in a row to a team that is ranked, might be ranked, once upon a time was ranked, or some time in the distant future will be ranked. So...

Sparty - 31
Rowdy - 20

boilerdowd says:
I'm excited to see guys like Siller, Bolden, Holland and Kerrigan continually getting better and develop toward next season. But, the more I think about last week, I just think Michigan was just that bad and Purdue really is still the same team with just a much more dangerous quarterback. Thus, I don't know if a Tiller-coached team can beat a well-coached, talented squad like the Spartans.

I've watched MSU play a few times this year. And what stands out to me is the fact that nothing stands out too much (except Ringer, of course). They just keep on beating on you, offensively and defensively until you submit. While I've liked out the interior defensive linemen have handled the inside running game most of the year for Purdue's defense, I think they too will wear down as Ringer does what he does...Plus, MSU's rushing attack will keep Purdue off of the field as they have done to so many of their opponents this season.

I look for MSU to give up a lot of yards, but not a ton of points...I also think Sheets will have a good day with over 100 yards rushing and at least one touchdown. But, for Purdue to win, I think Siller is going to need another dominant performance and I'm not so sure he is ready yet to carry a team, week-in, week-out. That said, I'm looking forward to seeing him try...plus, I think Orton will have another big game as they seem to really be on the same page.

MSU 35
Purdue 22

A Spartan Preview (Purdue v. MSU)

Last week was a pretty tough loss, as a Purdue fan...and I'm pretty sure the Boiler players feel the same way. MSU is also coming off of a loss in which they could all but taste the victory to in-state rival UM, but couldn't match the Henne-Manningham connection down the stretch. The question for both teams is does a tough loss motivate a team to get the taste out of their mouths OR does it break their spirit.



I think the loss for the Spartans all but ended their season. Hoeppner-esque tactics like a countdown clock leading to the UM game tend to make the sting of a loss linger that much longer...problem is, unlike IU v. Purdue, the UM game is not their last contest of the regular season. Mark Dantonio took this one hard too. He was still talking about it as recently as Tuesday remembering some of the UM players antics...problem is, he has another game to prepare for...these 19 & 20 year olds need to move on and may not have been able to as their coach continued to languish over the loss last Saturday. One one hand, I really appreciate his passion for that game and their rivalry with UM, on the other, his team would probably benefit from him letting it rest after Sunday following that contest.

Point of Interest: Jaycen Taylor has been bumped off of the two-deep and replaced by Dan Dierking for this week's game...looks like Joe Tiller agrees with J about Taylor's fumbles. I would look for Taylor to have a pretty good game as a result of this move.

Purdue is favored in a home game, under Joe Tiller...what's that mean? (You probably already know) Here's what we think it means:

Tim Says:
I have a lot of concerns about this weekends game, but it's not about which Purdue team we'll see for a change. It's about which Michigan State team we'll see. It seems that Michigan State plays up to it's opponents (ex. Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin), but that's actually a good thing for Purdue, as MSU will most likely not get up for Purdue (ex. Iowa, Pitt). I expect Purdue to play a rather bland game, but because they are expected to win, they will. They won't have any fire in their bellies, and the coaches certainly won't do them any favors, but they'll still win.

Purdue 30
MSU 21

J Says:
I'm depressed in one way -- Purdue went 0 for 3 in their major tests. However, I'm somewhat optimistic in another way -- the Boilers haven't had their traditional stinker loss to an opponent they shouldn't lose to. In previous years, there was always an unexpected loss to Northwestern or a blowout by a not-thsat-good Iowa. Things like that. This season, however, the Boilermakers have truly played to the form we've all come to expect. Showing up and playing solid against the teams they can beat and, well, you know the rest. It's a familiar tune we play here at Boiled Sports.

I'm not suggesting this season has been a failure -- I truly don't think it has. I think that by winning out, Purdue will have a season to be extremely proud of. Where it leads, who knows? However, losing one of these last two games would REALLY sting after the consistent season we've seen to this point.

This weekend's game is a game the Boilers absolutely should win. There are no two ways about it. MSU is a spirited group but they're not all that good. They hung with Michigan for most of the game but you have to remember this was a game they had a countdown clock at their practice facility for, counting down the seconds to their matchup. This was against their hated in-state rival -- the one whose students make fun of the State students for not being able to get into UM. So if they gave that game EVERYTHING they had and still fell short, I see no reason to take their 28-24 loss to Michigan as something to be worried about. Sure, Purdue got hammered by Michigan but that's what Purdue does.

This weekend will be something like the Iowa game, I think. The Boilers offense will come out and put some points up, then try to let MSU back into it (and MSU should get back into it since their offense isn't as horrendous as Iowa's) and we'll have a close game at the half. Then, based on my newfound faith that the Boilers show up in third quarters now, I think we'll see them pull away and win this game by a semi-comfortable margin.

Purdue 33
MSU 24

Boilerdowd says:
It's Senior Day for our Boilers and this season, a ton of guys will be introduced as they play their last game at Ross Ade in the black and gold. Offensively, Grimes, Powell, Hood, Keller, Bryant and Standeford will all take a bow...and defensively, Avril, Bright, Bick, Ferguson, Keglar and Vinson will all say their goodbyes. You can see, many of the leaders in both statistics and intangibles are in those two groups. For this reason, I think Purdue will come out and play tough from the get-go. That said, I think MSU's punishing running game will keep it close all afternoon. This Spartan team runs the ball as well as Ohio State...but they don't pass as well (thankfully). Plus, their two backs allow them to run inside or outside extremely effectively.

I look for Purdue's offense to score enough that MSU's running game can't complete a late comeback...I think Bryant and Keller will both have huge days and I believe Sheets & Taylor will both run the ball effectively to the tune of 5-6 yds/carry. The key to the game is Painter and his confidence...he needs it and his team needs to see him as a leader.

Purdue 37
MSU 33

To Your Call Once More We Rally;
Alma Mater Hear Our Praise.
Where The Wabash Spreads Its Valley;
Filled With Joy Our Voices Raise.
From The Skies In Swelling Echoes
Come The Cheers That Tell The Tale
Of Your Vict'ries And Your Heros,
Hail Purdue! We Sing All Hail!

Chorus:

Hail, Hail To Old Purdue!
All Hail To Our Old Gold And Black!
Hail, Hail To Old Purdue!
Our Friendship May She Never Lack.
Ever Grateful, Ever True,
Thus We Raise Our Song Anew;
Of The Days We've Spent With You,
All Hail Our Own Purdue!