Purdue-Michigan: The Conference Season Begins

It's predicto time around these parts. This weekend, at a special 4 PM start time, the Boilers take on Michigan at home.

I think it's safe to say this is the most hyped the fan base has been going into a conference slate in quite a while. As Boilerdowd said on his video vignette, the question now is whether this is going to be an '06-'07 kind of team that folds when competition gets serious or an '03-'04 team that actually has the chops to compete against the meat of the schedule.

What do we think? Well, I'm so glad you asked. Let's go there now.

J says:

I know I've become the resident cynic, but I just haven't seen enough from Danny Hope-coached teams to believe -- just yet -- that they're going to be different than previous years. Yes, they did what we asked/hoped for in the pre-con, for the most part. And if they'd pulled out a very winnable game against Notre Dame, the Boilers would almost surely be a ranked squad, 4-0 heading into conference play.

I do remember guys like Ricardo Allen saying that the ND game was their "one slip up" and that it wasn't happening again. I like that mentality. I like the resolve. As I've said before, I really like the makeup and focus of this team.

That said, I don't know what to think about this week. Michigan isn't as good as was originally thought, which shouldn't be a complete shock, really, since they're only two years removed from being pretty terrible under RichRod. However, they're also not as bad as some are starting to suggest. Whether you think it was the result of a big lead or what, Purdue's defense gave up a lot to Marshall. This Wolverine defense is not the Herd defense, so as much as I'd like to say Purdue can outscore them, I'm not so sure about that. Yes, I know Alabama put an offensive whipping on Michigan, but let's not kid ourselves into think Purdue's offense is similar to Alabama's. There was also a fair amount written over at MGoBlog and elsewhere about the number of missed assignments by the Michigan defense against Alabama. One might think they've had the time to sort that out. And then, of course, there's always the Denard factor. The guy finds ways to torment defenses. Of course, his passes look worse than mine in a flag football game....here you go boys, go up and get it!

The problem, of course, is that Michigan's prototype receivers often can go get them, and while Purdue's secondary looked great last week, they're not huge guys. Josh Johnson seems as though he'll be consistent against anyone -- consistently good. Ricardo thus becomes the wild card here -- does he continue developing in the positive direction? Or does he get worked over like he has against talented receiving corps in the past?

I do think Purdue's defense is capable of causing Denard trouble. I think the line will have a good day and force him to move around and not have tons of time to throw the ball. I feel good about this, because I think it could lead to mistakes that the Purdue secondary has begun to show they are more than willing to capitalize on. But then my emotions swing back to remind me that Purdue has beaten three truly dreadful defenses. I do believe that you shouldn't be penalized for who you've played because you can only beat who's in front of you, though, and again as discussed, Purdue probably should have handed ND their only loss thus far.

I want to continue to pick Purdue to lose the games I actually think they'll lose, but when I look carefully at the matchup here, I keep thinking Purdue really does have a better-than-average chance. If they lose, I think it will be either because the coaching staff made some questionable decisions or they jerked around Marve and TerBush all day, since reports are indicating that Marve will be available. I guess what I'm saying is that coaching in general is what might undermine the Boilers tomorrow.

I was wrong last week and let's hope I'm wrong again. Boilers show well, but lose painfully.

Michigan 34
Purdue 27

Boilerdowd says:

Perhaps it's the wings on the helmet that give me nightmares or the memory of last year's game that resounds in my thick skull...but I haven't felt great about this game in spite of UM's two losses.

Sure, their two losses come to two of the better teams in the nation, according to early polls...but even in victory versus lousy teams, UM hasn't looked great.  I think most people in America came in to this year thinking as I did- it was logical that with a Senior QB that was a legit Heisman candidate last season, and the same coaches all returning, the Wolverines would be world beaters this season.  But, my eyes have told me a different story when I've watched them and the stats agree with my LASIK-improved organs.

UM doesn't sustain drives with great regularity this season and doesn't overwhelm in any one area.  Their pass efficiency and overall passing offense is in the bottom third of the league, they're last in the league in first downs and their rushing offense is in the middle of the conference...in spite of returning two of the leagues best running weapons in Toussaint and Robinson.

On the defensive side of the ball, there's good news and bad news- They're 12th in the league in sacks BUT they one of the best passing defenses in the league.  Plus, they're one of the worst rushing defenses in the league (that number is a bit skewed due to 'Bama's day v. UM).

On top of that, their kickoff coverage has been pretty lousy at times...and it kind of feels like Mostert is due to make a bit of noise.

Purdue did an OK job containing UND's Golson when they had to, but he was able to dump it off to his tight ends all day...and UM doesn't tend to use the tight end with a ton of regularity.  But, Robinson is a very rich man's Golson.

Josh Johnson has looked rock solid for the Boilers all year...and Allen, when not nicked up has played well too.  But, Gallon and what's-his-name have torched Purdue in the past...so Johson and Allen will need to play large for Purdue to win.

My biggest fear comes from Toussaint, Robinson and other UM backs getting on the outside v. Purdue's linebackers.  Michigan will have trouble manufacturing hard yards on the inside v. Gaston and Short...but teams quickly find Purdue's weakness when they have to, and UM is filled with capable skilled position players to exploit Purdue.

Earlier in the week, it looked like it was going to be like UM's last visit to God's country- gray, cold, rainy...but now it's going to be cool (lower 50s) and clear.  That's good- I don't like TerBush without good footing.

If Purdue (read as Marve and TerBush) stays patient and doesn't try to test UM over the middle, and on defense, Purdue's front can contain Robinson, this could be a slugfest...but if it comes down to a field goal, I don't like Purdue's chances too much.

That said, I kind of feel like UM is still a better team than they've shown...and they'll be ready coming off of the bye week.  Plus, I really like Hoke as a coach and think he'll have the corn and blue dialed in. Purdue struggles as we watch too many QB changes...

UM 31
Purdue 20

EXTRA! EXTRA! EXTRA, Handsome!! Handsome Hour 11/11/10

Ladies love 'em...fellas wanna be 'em...The handsome pair returns for a pre-BS Summit Show.

Their pal Brent stops by to chat (Sorry, BTN's Brent Yarina...this is the only photo we had lying around).

The guys discuss Matty's additional firepower...

and even get horny together as they talk about the BCS.

Later in the show, the gentlemen discuss the mastermind behind UM's vaunted defense...

and finally, they look at the future and dream a little.

Tune in...Get handsome...NOW!!!

Listen to internet radio with Boiled Sports on Blog Talk Radio

Pukey Purdue Predictions

So, if Purdue plays a game versus Michigan and no one watches, does it actually count?

We'll see this Saturday as I attend a game between two once-proud football teams in Ross-Ade Stadium. If you're going too, flag me down in the stands...I'll be the other moron watching with you.

Sadly, the 45,000 fans that are there will be witnessing a game hosting a big bunch of Purdue's recruits for the class of '09...Let's hope Danny Hope deserves a big, hot cup of coffee Saturday evening; it is, afterall for closers only.

This game looks to be the first start of Justin Siller's career as a quarterback. Siller, who Tiller thought would be the next great Purdue QB (as the season of '07 ended) after Painter graduated, was moved to RB (Tiller said at that time he could be one of the best all-time RBs when by the time his Purdue career ended) has now been taking snaps with the ones in practice for a whole week...He should be much improved from the 10-play list he was working with last week.

Tim says:
Haven't you realized that I prefer not to think about that team unless I have to?

Who are they playing again?

Does it matter?

Might as well be 1997 Wolverines - 22
Sugar Coated Chocolate Frosted Suck Bombs - 10

J Says:

We can no longer score with any regularity and Curtis Painter is possible (definitely?) out for this weekend... which, really, might not be that big a deal. So what are going to be held to? 3 instead of 6? At least with Siller it feels like there's a chance for an exciting play. I know he only threw for 73 yards against Minnesota but I liked some of his passes. Confident, accurate, decent amount of zip on them. If we would go back to the frenetic pass-to-set-up-the-pass with the little outs and dump-offs, it could work for a while. Of course, even a lousy 2-6 UM team knows we have zero deep passing ability so they'll adjust to this if we try it. So what does that mean? It means nothing. Michigan is having a pretty terrible season, too, though they did beat Wisconsin so we know they can win a Big Ten game. Purdue cannot... at least so far. And I see no reason to expect them to suddenly not go into their traditional fetal position against Michigan. Sure, we can beat 'em... maybe we even SHOULD since we're both 2-6 and it's in WestLaf. But you and I both know we won't. And that's what's really sad.

Michigan 24

Purdue 10

Boilerdowd says:
Look for the Boilers to be hitting on all cylinders as the offense scores in a wide-array of methods with a dizzying barrage of fantastic play-calling...Oh, I'm kidding.

Michigan 3
Purdue 2

Purdue's offense this season kinda makes me feel this way...

Purdue v. UM Prognostication

Our Boilers are getting ready to head up to Ann Arbor and travel into the scariest place, for Purdue football teams, in America. This might not be the best Wolverines team, according to this year's resume, but the three of us here at Boiled Sports still believe this year's Michigan team to be extremely talented and very good.

Plus, every since Russell Crowe has admitted to his undying love of Lloyd Carr, UM has been undefeated.

I don't think it's the fanbase that is intimidating, because the Big House is not especially loud in person, but Purdue seems to be perpetually perplexed by the University of Michigan's team on the road over the past 41 years...Regardless of history, here's how we see tomorrow going for our 5-1 Boilers:


Tim Says:
Mike Hart will have 180 yards rushing.

Curtis Painter will have 320 yards passing, but 2 picks.

Purdue will expose the Michigan secondary, but it will be their inability to stop the Michigan running game that will prove to be their undoing.

Michigan 30
Purdue 20

J Says:

If I had never seen a Purdue game at Michigan or if I knew nothing about our history -- or better yet, our history against UM was erased -- I would tell you the following:

Purdue's passing attack is EXACTLY what Oregon used to shred the Michigan secondary and really made them look like silly little girls. I watched all of that game and they couldn't tackle, they couldn't adjust, they looked completely confused... all Oregon was doing was spreading the field and running slants... and the safeties for some reason weren't helping. It was kind of weird. Once, okay, twice, maybe... but it was happening all day. Oregon had them on their heels and tossed in some trick plays and it was just a stunning pasting. Clearly, Michigan has rebounded and is playing better football but you could make a case the Purdue's pass attack is more formidable than Oregon's, so I think Purdue has a good chance if only their defense can hang tough.

But in reality, I do know Purdue's history in the Big House and I know Tiller doesn't beat teams he's not supposed to beat. And no matter how "down" Michigan might be right now, they're not a team that Purdue is "supposed" to beat so it won't happen. I hate being a pessimist but I looked at the schedule and chalked up losses at Michigan and at PSU and then figured we'd lay at least one or two other eggs during the season... Michigan's bigger boys and unlimited supply of blue-chippers will wear down the Boilers. It's unfortunate but I think they're just more loaded in over talent. I think Painter is as good or better than Henne but Henne has more weapons around him. Sure, sure, Dorien Bryant, etc., etc. He's no Manningham and we all know it.

I hate to be so Tim-like (that is, negative), but I see us losing simply because we're in Michigan. At our place, I think we'd have a shot (as long as we were more awake than last weekend), but at Michigan, it's going to take a pinpoint accuracy kind of day from Curtis and sure-handedness from our backs and receivers. And a yeoman effort from the defense, which I do think is possible even though I never count on it.

Michigan 21
Purdue 18

Boilerdowd Says:
I've heard it over and over: "Michigan has struggled versus quarterbacks who run the spread. In fact, both of the Wolverines losses come against teams that effectively run this offense." While I agree with this assessment, and Purdue does run the spread pretty well, both App. State & Oregon (not to mention Northwestern) all have run-first spread offenses with mobile quarterbacks. That is a HUGE difference. Plus, much like tOSU, Michigan's corners will bump and beat up Purdue receivers following an 11-year old playbook that has been effective each time it's employed.

Coach Tiller, for the third week in four, will see a talent-laden team on the other side of the field. Michigan has horses...4 & 5-star horses...And Tiller will probably tell his team, for the second week in a row, that the opponent is the more talented team. Problem is, when you tell a kid that he's overmatched, he might play that way. CONVERSELY, If you tell him that he can do anything and motivate him, he might believe that too. Wouldn't it be great if the Joe Tiller of 1997-2000 would give these guys the pep talk? They might just believe they could win, in that case. Sadly, Cowboy Joe's been replaced with Oatmeal Wilford...and as a result Purdue has lost 17 straight to ranked teams and nearly every game in which they were the underdog in the past 5 years.

When I saw Appalachia State defeat Michigan earlier this season, I told friends and family alike, "This is just going to make it more painful when they beat up on our Boilers." I'll stick by that and the fact that I thought this was a loss that could be written in pen in the books, prior to the season.

Michigan 39
Purdue 17

So, sadly, we're all back in agreement as we were the first 5 weeks of the season, at least with the outcome of the contest. I don't know if even the return of "Sideboob Friday" can overcome what we think is in store for our Boilers. Hopefully, we are all wrong and the trend of losing streaks in October for Tiller-coached teams does not continue. I am hoping the 85 guys in the white jerseys in the Big House don't buy what we're selling. The game will air at Noon on The BTN to satellite-users all over the Midwest. Thanks again Comcast. And away we go...

To Your Call Once More We Rally;
Alma Mater Hear Our Praise.
Where The Wabash Spreads Its Valley;
Filled With Joy Our Voices Raise.
From The Skies In Swelling Echoes
Come The Cheers That Tell The Tale
Of Your Vict'ries And Your Heros,
Hail Purdue! We Sing All Hail!

Chorus:

Hail, Hail To Old Purdue!
All Hail To Our Old Gold And Black!
Hail, Hail To Old Purdue!
Our Friendship May She Never Lack.
Ever Grateful, Ever True,
Thus We Raise Our Song Anew;
Of The Days We've Spent With You,
All Hail Our Own Purdue!