Boilers-Minny Predicto: Somebody Has to Win

In a search for Minn football, this came up. Fine with us.

Our Boilers take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in their nice and still new stadium up in the great white North tomorrow at 3:30 PM, ET, on the Big Ten Network.

I can only assume the 3:30 start was given to the Boilers and Gophers because of how supremely awesome these two teams are, at a combined 0-6 in Big Ten play.

We've been sort of quiet this week, as we're not sure what else to say about 2012 Purdue football at this point. But it's time to dive into our thoughts on the game versus the Gophers. So away we go.

J says:

I had the Boilers at 0-3 after their first three Big Ten games, but I guess there was a part of me hoping for something more, since I kept hearing how this was Danny Hope's best team in West Lafayette. So his best team can't muster more fight than this?

I also think that it's uncanny how Purdue finds a way to punch you in the stomach even when you're expecting 0-3. So, let's see, how could it be worse? How about two embarrassing no-shows at home followed by a rip-your-heart-out collapse in the final 45 seconds on the road against Ohio State? Perfect!

Minnesota is on a similar slide, having not scored more than 13 points in a game in Big Ten play. However, before you view that as a good thing for Purdue, the Boilers haven't exactly lit it up in Big Ten play, either. I do agree with the thinking that Purdue is the more talented team and should win this game, but two factors push me in the other direction: 1) the Boilers are on the road and 2) the letdown factor.

Purdue is 0-2 on the road this year, though they were two close losses that both could have been wins....and should have been, one could argue. But the record is what it is. The bigger issue is the second one I mentioned -- Danny Hope teams are highly emotional and have crazy ups and downs. Just when you think they'll show up for something (for example, last year at home vs Iowa with a chance to clinch a bowl), they come out flatter than an Indiana cornfield. And when you expect them to get crushed (i.e., at Ohio State, for example), they come out with more heart than you knew they had in 'em. So yes, I'm trying to find some semblance of logic or predictability in a Danny Hope team, which is an exercise in futility, I realize. But hey, I gotta come to my decision somehow, right?

In the end, I'm not confident in the guys right now, especially in light of how crushing that collapse was last Saturday. I hope they recover and, obviously, if they come out as focused as they did against the Buckeyes, this could actually be a blowout in the black and gold's favor. But right now, my gut says they don't.

Minnesota 24
Purdue 17

Boilerdowd says:

With each of the last few weeks, I've become more tired of reading Hope's postgame comments.  This past Saturday, I gave up on readin them all-together.  But, at J's suggestion, I read up a bit, and here's what I found out: A loss is good-enough for Hope.

Let's not forget the lofty platitudes that Hope drilled way back in August- this was/is a special team, it can have a great season and many players on the team are ready for breakout seasons in which they'd become household names.

Well, not much of what the coach has told us has come true.  But, if history means anything, the post aOSU comments are not good news for his squad.

When Hope is happy with the team, they typically come out and play awful the next week...this goes back to his first season on campus-  I think that will be the case again this week.

The good news is Minnesota is bad.  This Purdue team feasts on bad teams...or used to anyway. And I still believe Purdue has a few players that, when in the position to do big things, are as good as about anyone in the nation.

Like Purdue, Minnesota has played a bunch of QBs this season...but now, it sounds like Hope thinks it's a good idea to only play one- Minnesota, conversely might still show more than one.  Sure, Hope's big idea of going with just one guy is about 7 weeks late, but what it might yield this week is TerBush getting sacked 3 times as Minny has a pretty solid front...and TerBush struggles with pressure decisions.  I also think though, one of Purdue's utility men (Henry, Hunt or Edison) will have a big day...and I think that will be enough for Purdue to eek out a win.

This is a game that much of the B1G cares little about...and based on what I've heard from many Purdue fans, neither do we.  That said, I believe the Boilers get a W this weekend.

Purdue 3
Minnesota 2

Predicto - Purdue vs. Minnesota

Guys, this just in from West Lafayette: We're actually fielding a team this week. Minnesota comes to town once again to meet the wrath of a hungry Boiler team.

Predicto starts........Right now!

Homecoming Predicto

Tomorrow looks pretty perfect in God's country- Near-70, sunny and it's Homecoming Saturday. Mrs. Boilerdowd, LBD and MBD will all be with me on campus for the contest...but we still have some question marks about tickets (we're trying to get three on the cheap as the 9 month old hasn't been to a game yet...not sure how she'll do). Regardless, can't wait until tomorrow as a wounded Goldy gets backed into the corner that is Ross-Ade stadium.

Tim says:

The fact that this Purdue team is favored by 6 over the Gophers speaks worlds about the current state of Minnesota football.

Henry needs to figure out how to pass the ball. If he has less than 100 yards passing, Purdue is going to have a hard time scoring, let alone, winning this one. Minnesota isn't lighting the college football world on fire either as this game has the 72nd ranked offense and the 95th. It doesn't even matter which is which, they're both bad. Purdue has an edge on the defensive side of things though, so they should be able to slow down Goldy long enough to allow the offense to eek out some points.

10 years ago this game would've been 60-58. Tomorrow...

Purdue 24
Minnesota 20

J says:

This week, its my turn to be short. Zing!

Purdue must win this game in order to keep bowl hopes alive. They're playing in a getup they are 0-1 all time in. It's homecoming. Minnesota is terrible. 2-0 in conference is within grasp. All of this, sadly, makes me think they'll find a way to screw up.

That said, I can't pick them to lose to Minny.

Purdue 23
Minnesota 21

boilerdowd says:

What a position to be in. A couple weeks ago, Purdue was left for dead by almost everybody...now, they get to play a team that some think could have an historically-bad conference season.

My wife asked the question if Minnesota wouldn't simply stack the defense and stop Purdue's run. Well, I think they'll try to...and I think they'll fail. This is a bad Minnesota team...and their strength is running between the tackles...something Purdue's front stops pretty well (as long as the back doesn't start bouncing outside). Even with (typically) ginormous lineman, Minny is only averaging 3.8 yds/carry.

Noteworthy stats: Minnesota is 8th in rush offense, 11th in rush defense, 11th in scoring defense...sure, Purdue's no world beater...but I think Purdue will get better in the coming weeks...Minny won't.

I really like White Lightning's presence as a QB- he looks poised and seems to have command of the field. I don't like Henry's accuracy a whole bunch at this point, but I do think last week's sub-100 yard game isn't going to be the norm. I look for the receivers to catch the ball more-consistently or to see RBs catching the ball in the flat and TEs to be dragging underneath for cheap stuff.

If not, perhaps we'll see the wing-T in a week or two. I don't give a damn, honestly...as long as they win.

Purdue 24

Minnesota 13

To Your Call Once More We Rally;
Alma Mater Hear Our Praise.
Where The Wabash Spreads Its Valley;
Filled With Joy Our Voices Raise.
From The Skies In Swelling Echoes
Come The Cheers That Tell The Tale
Of Your Vict'ries And Your Heros,
Hail Purdue! We Sing All Hail!

Hail, Hail To Old Purdue!
All Hail To Our Old Gold And Black!
Hail, Hail To Old Purdue!
Our Friendship May She Never Lack.
Ever Grateful, Ever True,
Thus We Raise Our Song Anew;
Of The Days We've Spent With You,
All Hail Our Own Purdue!

Damian Johnson Throws Down The Gauntlet

Quite simply, Damian Johnson thinks Purdue isn't as talented as everyone makes them out to be. In fact, he thinks Minny is just as talented. Ready to accuse us again of taking something out of context or "reading into" something? Here's the story and here's the money quote:

"They get pubbed up a lot and I just don't feel ... I feel like we're just as talented as them," he said. "In my opinion, they're a good team, but to me, they're not as talented as people believe."

It's rare that guys say things like this and then almost immediately have the chance to back them up, but tonight is that chance. Minnesota might provide Damian is right. But even if they do, this seems like a dumb thing to say.

Damian, just out of curiosity, have you ever been hit by a train?

(Thanks to multiple readers for pointing this out in multiple mediums.)

Pete v. Goldy Predicto

Tim says:
What else can freaking go wrong?

Is the race on to see who can predict the largest margin of defeat? Maybe. Are we taking bets as to how many new and exciting ways the ball will be turned over? If we're not, we should be. Did Vegas open a line on the over/under for missed tackles? How about poor angles by the linebackers? Stupefying timeouts and ball spikes?

The mental mistakes are piling up like a rush hour accident on the 405. It would be far easier at this point to just get a solid butt kicking, but that's not what is happening. The team consistently shoots itself in the feet, and then aims for the gut. When they miss, the coaching staff blasts them with a shotgun in the back. Can I through in any more metaphors? Yes. Yes i can.

The danger for this team is that they're very close, if not already there, to fans just not caring anymore. It seems like we've seen every possible poor play at a crucial time that ultimately leads to a defeat. Team is up by 6 with 1 second to go and all you have to do is take a knee? Instead, let's run backwards while planning to fall down but instead fumble and let the other team run it in for a touchdown. Is that a defeatist attitude. Yes. It is. What else can freaking go wrong? It seems like nothing, but somehow they keep finding a way to drive me crazy.

Opponents have stopped mattering for this team. They show up for a drive. There are flashes here and there. Inconsistency ultimately rules the day. It's time for a change. Put new guys in there. What they're doing obviously isn't working. It's pure stupidity to do the same thing over and over again while expecting different results.

Minnesota 32
Purdue - 21

J says:
Why should we believe it's going to happen now?

As I said on our podcast, the thing that may be bothering me the most this year is the fact that Purdue has the talent to win these games. They could, legitimately, be 5-0. Nobody has blown them out, even when they've (frequently) played horrible games. Six turnovers (mmmm, turnovers) and you still have a good shot to win? Incredible. Two to three quarters of zero offense almost every week, and against programs like UND, and still grabbing a lead? Amazing. In the end, though, they're all losses, and that just sucks. I certainly hope the team is fired up to go into Minnesota and beat a very beatable team. Because, honestly, I've watched both programs this year and Purdue is two touchdowns better than Minny if Purdue plays their game -- not a "perfect" game, mind you... just plays their game. But is that gonna happen? Of course not. I want to say win because I genuinely believe Purdue should win this game. But they haven't won on the road in two years. That's awful. And why should we believe it's going to happen now?

Minnesota 31
Purdue 24

boilerdowd says:
Roadkill?

Clearly this team doesn't want to surprise me...Like a child awaiting the fatman at in December, I've been asking, no begging for surprises for weeks...but to no avail.

This week is no different. I won't be surprised as our Boilers put together the game that we've been awaiting-
Elliott and Nord combine for at least a TD a quarter.
Aaron Valentin & Co. won't fumble the ball on Special Teams.
The defense will play solid and hold Decker (for the most part) in check.

Is this wishful thinking? Yes. But, I've had a feeling about this since Monday...good things are a-comin'! And with this win, TMill's pipedream of a bowl stays alive!!

Purdue 35
Minnesota 30

To your call once more we rally, Alma Mater, hear our praise;
Where the Wabash spreads its valley, Filled with joy our voices raise.
From the skies in swelling echoes Come the cheers that tell the tale,
Of your vict'ries and your heroes, Hail Purdue! We sing all hail!

Hail, hail to old Purdue! All hail to our old gold and black!
Hail, hail to old Purdue! Our friendship may she never lack,
Ever grateful ever true, Thus we raise our song anew,
Of the days we've spent with you, All hail our own Purdue.

Purdue v. Minnesota Prognostications

This week's game is a blessing and a curse...It's a blessing because Goldy is probably a year away from being a legit ranked opponent, so they're beatable. It's a curse, because they're still ranked...and Tiller's teams are still sans-victory in the last 17 contests versus teams that have earned spots in the national rankings.

Let's all be very honest though- If Purdue played a well-coached, mid-sized high school team...and made the amount of mistakes they did last week, they'd get beaten. I know, I know, the coordinators have done a good job and only someone as intellectually mature as Joe himself could really understand that it's more about effort than wins and losses at this point...But our Boilers looked simply lousy last weekend...Not like the Coletto Era, but like the Akers Era, friends.

The question is- Was what we saw in Evanston the bottom of the recent nosedive? Here's what we're thinking about this week's Homecoming Matchup v. Minny.

Tim says:
Good for Purdue
-It's been 18 seasons since the Gophers won at Purdue.
-Purdue hasn't dropped five in a row since losing six straight in 2005 (has it really been that long? *rolls eyes*)
-It's Minnesota

Bad for Purdue
-They're Purdue
-Purdue has a 17-game losing streak to Top 25 opponents
-They suck

At this point it doesn't matter who the f Purdue plays. They're done. Should they win this game? Absolutely. Will they win this game? Absolutely not.

They freaking should win 45 - 10. They will, however, snatch defeat from the jaws of certain victory.

The wheels are off the train and the train is on fire and the conductor is taking a nap. F you conductor!

Minnesota - 38
Purdue - 20

J says:

Purdue hosts a ranked team this week. Uh-oh.

While none of us here think Minny is THAT good, their record is 6-1 and you have to give them credit. Whatever Tim Brewster is doing to get quality football players to come to the land where it's hard to tell the co-eds from the livestock, it's working (and he hasn't been caught yet). So good for him and good for them.

Another thing that's probably changed -- this isn't your father's Glen Mason Minnesota program anymore. Joe Tiller owned Glen Mason and would take him off the shelf and toy with him every fall before crushing Mason's hopes and dreams and putting him away for another year. Purdue-Minnesota's history has many interesting games, almost all of them shootouts... even back when both programs were terrible. And then there's of course the famous Brandon Hance comeback that's still kind of ridiculous.

Thing is, though, I don't think Minnesota fears us anymore -- if they ever did. Brewster has them thinking bigger and winning bigger games than they've won in many years. This team reminds me of those early Tiller teams -- they're talented but are also playing over their heads and catching teams by surprise. Does that mean there's a chance they could let down against a 2-5 Purdue squad and get beat? Sure it does....Purdue has the talent to hang with most teams in the Big Ten, as we've said over and over -- they just haven't gone out there and executed.

Talent-wise, this should be a great game, probably another shootout. But reality-wise, with the way Purdue simply hasn't shown up lately.... I can't imagine why I would pick them to win.

The defense shows up and plays hard against two of the better teams in the COUNTRY in OSU and PSU, and then goes into the crapper against Northwestern when the offense finally awakens and at least gets 20+ points on the board. There's just no telling which wheel is going to come off from week to week. But one thing is usually pretty consistent -- Purdue doesn't beat ranked teams anymore. I really hope I'm wrong.

Minnesota 27

Purdue 16

boilerdowd says:
This game is a lot like last week in that part of me believes Purdue wins...Sure, that's the completely illogical part because this is not the same Minnesota team of last season...So, I'm going with logic. Tiller-coached teams of late have played way-down versus poorer competition and risen to the challenge for close losses versus good teams (awesome sports psychology, by the way).

Until they prove otherwise to me, I don't know how I can pick my alma mater. I'm seeing flashbacks of Reggie Fogie-era greatness from Goldie...I mean Tony Dungy-era greatness...and on the other sideline, Fred Akers and his gigantic hat might once again be stalking the sidelines of Ross Ade...or at least it will feel like it. (Put in Downing!) You have to figure Minnesota is due for a victory in West Lafayette...

Will Tiller end his career with a 19-game losing streak versus ranked opponents? It certainly looks that way right now. The magic formula of (Purdue<30pts=loss) continues...

Minnesota 34
Purdue 28

Gopher Toe

Each week we attempt to give you some things to think about regarding that week's Purdue game. For tonight's matchup with Minnesota, I just couldn't help posting this picture of the Minnesota Golden Gopher's... cameltoe, I guess.

Tonight the Boilers take on the 1-2 Gophers in the Metrodome in front of... several fans. Seriously, Minnesota needs to put a major college level football stadium back on their campus. It's kind of ridiculous.

Let's go back two years. Glen Mason, then Gopher's coach, basically got his team ready for Purdue starting with Spring practice. The Boilers had kind of owned Minny for a while and Mason was tired of losing to Tiller. His players played an inspired game in the Big Ten opener in 2005 and the Gophers prevailed -- barely -- in overtime. They reacted like they'd just won the Rose Bowl. Predictably, they tumbled in the subsequent weeks. None of us could really figure out why they took Purdue so seriously -- nobody else does, often to our advantage.

So last year, Glen Mason brought his senior noodlearm QB Brian Cupito into West Lafayette and the Boilers won a sloppy game that was a portent of things to come in the Boilers unimpressive 8-win season.

Well, things are a little different now. Mason is no longer there and the Gophers are starting a freshman QB. However, I'll tell you what hasn't changed: Minnesota still really can't stop anybody on defense and it looks like this Purdue-Minny game might look like the way they looked back when the cadre of writers here at Boiled Sports were starting our time at Purdue in the early/mid-90s. Purdue typically owned them back then, too, and used to win games by scores like 59-56. Nobody could stop ANYone and guys like Rick Trefzger looked like Heisman-caliber passers. Well, I think we could be in for another entertaining, if sad, shootout.

Minnesota is 1-2 but hasn't scored less than 31 points in any game. However, they've lost to Bowling Green and Florida Atlantic, so what does that tell you? Well, basically, that they couldn't stop boilerdowd if he were rushing the ball.

On the positive side for Minny, they've only lost their two games by a total of four point, and their starting QB, Adam Weber, has thrown for almost 800 yards and ten TDs in just three games. Not bad, but that's mainly because they've played three shootouts and are often (always) playing from behind. What scares me about this is that Purdue's defense, while improved, has still taken some quarters off against far lesser opponents. Sure, they've played some decent mid-level schools and maybe a mid-level school equals a marginal Big Ten school (like Minnesota). My point is that what concerns me is this game being a trap game: its SO easy to look ahead at the schedule and see a win tonight, a win next week at home against the South Bend Geniuses and then welcoming OSU to town at 5-0. And if it's easy for US to do that, then you know it's easy for the players to do that. And none of us have any confidence that our coaching staff can keep this squad focused. We're on the road tonight, playing against a team that can put up points. Sure, they won't be able to stop us, either, but what if we take a quarter off and are down 17 points? The question will be whether Painter and company can come back in that "environment." Fortunately, it's only the Metrodome and Minnesota fans so that's a nonfactor.

I checked in with my esteemed co-author boilerdowd and he thinks I'm unnecessarily concerned:

Minnesota's pass defense: 118th
Purdue's pass offense: 15th

Minnesota has allowed over 400 passing yards PER GAME. They've played BGSU, UM (Ohio) & Florida Atl.

I honestly don't see how they can win this game...It's much like it was during the Brees years at Purdue, but more lop-sided against the Gophers. I don't know if it's fair to call it a trap. It should be nearly like Purdue is playing without a defense opposing them.

I love that last line. "It should be nearly like Purdue is playing without a defense opposing them"

Yes, if they're focused. A bigger "if" than any of us want to admit.

Well, as I write this, the game is just ten hours away. So let's get on with it, prediction time.

boilerdowd:

Purdue 49
Mini 10

Painter & Bryant make it rain in the dome...also Orton to start another TD streak. Look for Dan Dierking to look strong as he has had a full week with the 1s. Defense gets back to where it was in the first half of the CMU game.

Tim:

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

J Money:

I would be supremely disappointed if we lose this game because we're such a better team than Minnesota. As long as the Boilers stay focused early, this one shouldn't be a problem. However, I do think we'll give up points in chunks tonight unless the defense is just crushing in the first quarter and truly rattles Weber.

Boilers: 45
Gophers: 33

Saddle up, boys, the Big Ten schedule begins today and it's time to get serious.