Power Rankings and Buckeye Preview

Tomorrow's game in Mackey will have the attention of the nation. Tip-off is at 1:00 on CBS as our Boilers will have the chance to beat their second opponent ranked in the top-10 in less than a week. Off the top of my head, I can't remember them playing, let-alone beating two teams ranked that highly in a five day period. Obviously a lot can be gained in March by the success in February.

I've heard some concern from fellow Boilers about the letdown if Purdue does win tomorrow...but like the classic cliche says, let's just take it one game at a time. My reason for doing so is different than Matty's, of course. I just want to enjoy each game as the season is getting short and this amazing and abridged Senior class doesn't have too much time left in God's Country. I was lucky enough to be on campus the last time a consensus All-American was playing at Purdue...it's only happened 10 times, and we seem to be watching number 11 in JJ. But, just as Purdue's season can still change by what happens on the court from here-out, so it is with Johnson's standing with the national media.

All that said, he's been the picture of consistency as he's led the team in minutes (35.2), points (20.7), rebounds (7.8) and blocks (2.3). At minimum, he'll be recognized as an All-American by at least a few media sources...and, if a couple things happen, he might actually be involved in the POY conversations that he should have been involved in all along.

Along with JJ, Smooge's career at Purdue is coming to a close in the next few games. He's been leading scorer three of his four seasons. It'll be nearly-impossible for him to lead the team this season. But, he has an opportunity to be one of only six players at Purdue to score 2,000 points during his career, and just the 27th in the Big Ten conference's long history to do so.

He only needs 11 points, so it'll probably happen in the next 25 minutes of basketball for our Boilers. I can think of nothing more fitting than watching Purdue beat aOSU at the hands of a 21-foot dagger by Moore that puts him into the 2,000 point club. Hey, one can dream.

But, it's going to be tough, and here's why:

Jared Sullinger was the highly-decorated player of year out of HS, and hasn't disappointed anyone. While not the tallest PF in the nation, he's one of the biggest guys weighing in at over 280 pounds...that's a tough match-up for anyone. It's even tougher when he's given a pass by officials to hook his defender time and time again. But to me, he's not the most important player to stop.

Purdue struggled mightily in Columbus...not just with Sullinger, but with everyone. LewJack couldn't stay with Craft, Smith wasn't in Diebler's face, Moore couldn't stick with Lighty and Byrd had trouble with Bufford. It was probably the only time in the last four years that I can remember Purdue being truly out-manned at every position. So are they Buckeyes that good?

While they're the most-talented starting five Purdue has played, or will play, they're not as good as they seemed last month. Instead of playing them straight up, Purdue had all hands on deck shading off of their man to guard Sullinger. While help defense is important in Painter's system, that's not the Purdue way...and I think we'll see a much different game tomorrow than what we saw at Ohio State.

The Forces of Good must defend the three like they usually do...that's the key for me. And at the same time, each guy needs to keep his man in front of him and allow nothing easy. That painful 7 minute stretch in Columbus that put Purdue away saw Purdue allowing easy threes and even easier transition buckets.

Let's remember, while it seemed that the Buckeyes were a foot taller at each position last time the teams squared off, there's only a 2.5 inch/player difference in the starting five. And before you say anything about Jackson, keep in mind that he tore the taller Badger, Illini and Golden Gopher squads apart by picking his spots and using his quickness. If Purdue can force Matta to get past his 7th player on their roster, aOSU will be out of its comfort zone...the officials will have a thing or two to say about how that portion of the game goes. While Purdue can't control them, there's a lot they can do to beat my least-favorite team in the BT.

Power Rankings

1. aOSU

I think they're atop the conference to stay this season, but stranger things have happened. Regardless of where the season ends, they're the most dominant team in the conference since MSU a few seasons ago.

2. Purdue

At this point, they're exactly wehre they should be. Despite what the media tells us, they're less-reliant on their one-two punch than Wisconsin as the next three leading scorers average 5 more points/game than do Wisconsin's 3-5 players.

3. Wisconsin

There's room for debate on how good of a coach Bo Ryan is in the post-season. But, no one can say anything but positive remarks on his ability to have his team playing their best in February.

4. MSU

They're kind of in this position by default. No one else in the middle of the conference is playing good basketball right now. They're a bit like IU was a few weeks ago- they're competing against the elite teams in the conference, but haven't been able to close games out. Their next game is of utmost importance to them...and their opponent.

5. Illinois

Since Izzo isn't their coach, Weber's squad might need a victory more than MSU to get into the tournament. The Illini might lose three of their last five games of the regular season.

6. Penn State

Their pre-con record has put them in a position in which it'll be nearly-impossible for them to make the dance. It's a good thing they host that other tournament each season.

7. Minnesota

They're the exact opposite of PSU- their pre & early conference schedule put them in a postion where it'd be difficult for them to not make the tournament...but they're not playing well right now. That said, it'll be hard to deny a 19 or 20-win BT team with a top-50 RPI from getting in.

8. Michigan

Their young guys, specifically Hardaway, are playing well...a strong end to the season and a good NIT showing might give the some confidence for next season.

9. Northwestern

At this point, they're playing for a home game in the NIT...but I think that might be a long shot.

10. Iowa

Flip a coin- both IU and Iowa are entering their next games with three-game losing streaks, which will more-than-likely turn to four following their next contests. Iowa gets the head-to-head tiebreaker.

11. IU

[Posted with iBlogger from my iPhone]

Seeking the Unprecedented

I've been looking forward to this one for a while...The anticipation almost feels like a football game- the week planned out quite nicely as Iowa was little more than a speed bump for the train that seems to be gaining momentum with each contest. But before we focus on the game at 6:30, let's look back to not-so-long ago.

Purdue had just come off of a loss at Wisconsin after winning 14-straight. Their next opponent was the limping Buckeyes. Evan Turner was banged-up, Matta's team was in desperate need of a win and the angry Boilers were coming back to God's country to hopefully get back on track. We all know that didn't happen. Dallas Lauderdale took it right at JJ...and JJ responded poorly. He played one of his worst games, offensively at least, as a starter at Purdue, I'd argue. The Ostrich went crazy in the first half, ended with 35, but really, this game was Evan Turner's. After miraculously healing, Turner didn't show any ill effects of his time off WITH A BROKEN BACK and got stronger down the stretch as he put the game away and kicked Purdue in the collective ribs in the closing minutes of the contest.

That game still stings, if you ask me.

And, if you ask your fellow Purdue fans, most think it's the worst loss this season- At home, playing with a lead and giving it away...not what a team full of veterans is supposed to do.

But the season is different now than it was a month ago. Sure, Purdue has gone on a bit of a run, but much of the national media tells me the conference race is aOSU's to lose. They're right...this Bucknut team is finally living up to its billing- they have a ton of talent, they're confident and they're using it well. From Diebler hitting the big shots...to Turner doing everything well...to Buford blossoming into a special player...to Lighty being the straw that stirs the drink and making everyone around him better...to Lauderdale becoming as intimidating as he looks...at least on the glass. This is a team is chocked-full of blue chips and they're playing like it.

Make no mistake, Purdue's the underdog.

Matty and this great Junior class hasn't cracked the code of Value City Arena...heck, no Purdue team has. In spite of aOSU needing to go two-for-one to get the sellouts, it's been a house of horrors for our Boilers...that's gotta change eventually, right?

I like this Purdue team with its back against the wall. I like this team when it needs to exact revenge...but I don't like some of the matchup problems that the length on this Buckeye lineup creates.

So what will it take for the black and gold to finally win in Columbus? I think it's simple- everyone needs to know their role. Kramer needs to have 3 steals, a couple points and solidify his reputation as the most-hated man in BT arenas. The Ostrich doesn't need to score 35, but an efficient 17 with 7 rebounds and a few assists will suffice. Smooge needs to look for his shot, as he's one of the few guys on the team that attacks the game offensively. But most-importantly, JJ's gotta play aggressively. He's 6'10", but he can sometimes play like he's 7'1"...and others, like he's 5'10". If he makes the decision to be great and fight through what Lauderdale's dealing out, Purdue will be in great shape as they heads back toward God's country on Wednesday night.

Pay special attention to LewJack as well...I think the old mojo that he and JJ had last season is starting to get magical again.
But as a team, they simply must finish strong...and a strong finish v. aOSU will almost-assuredly mean a strong finish for the BT season.

Choo Choo.

Purdue v. an Ohio State University Predicto

The vest will have a lot to smile about at the end of Saturday

Bouncing to 1-6
J says:
Purdue will lose to OSU this weekend. I think you'd have to go back to the pre-Tiller days to find a bigger certainty. Purdue rarely beats OSU, even when the Boilermakers are damn good. And this Purdue team, make no mistake, is not damn good. Oh, sure, they've shown some flashes and you could make the argument that when you lead every single one of your games at some point, you ought to have a higher winning percentage than .170. But as we've said before, the team is more than just the POTENTIAL and the FLASHES. It also includes the downright embarrassing special teams play and questionable coaching and preparation. That all goes into a team. Yes, with a few bounces, Purdue could be 6-0, or at least 3-3. But how many "bounces"? Twenty turnovers in six games. Three and one-third turnovers PER GAME. Even bad teams will beat you if you turn the ball over that much. If Purdue doesn't turn it over and IF Purdue plays inspired and IF OSU doesn't bring their A-game and IF the Boilers get some fortuitous calls and IF Purdue gets the "bounces" and IF Bolden can somehow shred a top ten defense like he shredded Toledo.....THEN could the Boilers win? Meh, maybe. But probably not.
OSU 45
Purdue 16

Kind of, not-really, but probably a blowout
Tim says:
I don't think it will be a blowout, but it will look like one on the scoreboard. Mental mistakes (stupid penalties, costly turnovers, dumb play-calling) will rule the day. I don't even care to analyze the game, because realistically I don't give Purdue a chance at all. Could they pull an upset if they play a perfect game? Absolutely. Ohio State is not untouchable. Will they play perfectly for more than a drive or two? I doubt it.
Ohio State 30
Purdue 14

Get your ice cold loss!
boilerdowd says:
This just in: A ticket has become available, so I'll be there. No, I still can't afford the $70 face value, but another Boiler has decided they can't bare the idea of an icy-cold loss surrounded by a bunch of goons spelling 4-letter words in unison...So I got the call. I'm always happy to watch my Boilers in person, but this one might be more of an act of love...and not enjoyable at all.

Terrelle Pryor is a flat-out lousy passer, but I don't think he'll need to throw the ball too often. Look for heaping helpings of the power-I formation from the Buckeyes...and if Purdue decides to crowd the line and go man on the outside, Pryor will find a way to hit one of his blue chips for a surprising (not to me) big pass play.

I look for aOSU's defense to score on three or four occasions more than Purdue's offense.

aOSU 33
Purdue 10

To your call once more we rally, Alma Mater, hear our praise;
Where the Wabash spreads its valley, Filled with joy our voices raise.
From the skies in swelling echoes Come the cheers that tell the tale,
Of your vict'ries and your heroes, Hail Purdue! We sing all hail!

Hail, hail to old Purdue! All hail to our old gold and black!
Hail, hail to old Purdue! Our friendship may she never lack,
Ever grateful ever true, Thus we raise our song anew,
Of the days we've spent with you, All hail our own Purdue.

Boilers To Take On Enigmatic Bucknuts Led By Weird-Looking, Poor Coach

The Boilermakers retreat to the friendly confines of Mackey Arena tomorrow afternoon (4 PM, Eastern, ESPN) to take on the OSU Buckeyes (18-8, 8-7), the second straight Big Ten semi-bubble team they'll have played.

I don't think anyone can figure out the Buckeyes, but as the title of this post intimates, we here at BS think Thad Motta is just a lousy coach. He gets amazing talent and there have been games where that's veyr evident, but for whatever reason, the Buckeyes just can't seem to keep things on the upswing.

They just beat PSU at home in their last game (pictured -- Jeremie Simmons, whose mom didn't know how to spell Jeremie, elevates over PSU's Taylor Battle, who was simply looking for a high five) but had previously lost three in a row -- but only by a total of ten points. That's frustrating.

As you also may recall, the Boilermakers lost a tough game at the Auto Parts Center or whatever the hell it's called, when JJ went bonkers and scored 30 but Hummel did not play. In that game, Purdue had the ball in a tie game with under 30 seconds left and LewJack made a poor decision and the Boilermakers lost in overtime. Losing focus and straying from your effecitve game plan even once like that can be the difference in the Big Ten. Let's hope the Boilers play more focused at home, despite feeling as though they've blown their shot at the regular season Big Ten title. This is a beatable team and it's a game the Boilermakers should win, not just one they should hope to win. At home, favored, better team.... there's no excuse not to finish strong.

The thinking here, if we must put forth a prediction, is that the Boilers come to play and win by 8, 75-67.

Hey, it's Friday, after all, and what's better than a meat bikini?

A New Idea

Some of you know this, some don't- I had so little faith that Purdue would compete this weekend (back in August), I scheduled a camping trip. I'm leaving in about an hour and won't be near a TV...So, if Travis is right and great things happen today, I want lots of updates in the comments section. You report, I'll decide...or something.

I look forward to being surprised!

Point/Counterpoint: aOSU v Purdue (11 Warriors sounds off)

(Special Thanks to 11 Warriors' Jason for contributing)

Greetings Boilers. I am here to provide you with a blueprint to getting your team into a position to steal the game in Columbus.

As with any fan that's watched entirely too much football, I've come to know what weaknesses there might exist on each side of the ball for the Buckeyes. These are those weaknesses

WHEN PURDUE HAS THE BALL Sheets has had an excellent season and he'll get his here and there. But where Purdue really has a chance to do some damage is attacking the middle of the OSU secondary. I know Painter is off to a rocky start, but you don't put up his career numbers if you're crap. If he can get it going this game and and the line can protect long enough, Orton, Tardy and Smith all have the size to work in the middle of the field where the Buckeye safeties hit better than they cover.
The key to doing this is establishing some semblance of a rushing threat so Laurinaitis and the linebackers get sucked up a little. USC was able to do it with ease, Troy got scored their lone touchdown by throwing over the middle and Wisconsin took advantage of the Buckeye safeties with throw to the deep middle to put themselves in position for a field goal at the end of the first half. Avoid the sidelines, because the corners are good, but the middle of the field is there.

WHEN OHIO STATE HAS THE BALL Pryor and Wells are going to make plays. Your best bet is to try to limit their damage and then when you can, put the team in down and distance holes by blitzing Pryor on early downs. After the opening two drives in Madison, when he seemed to move the ball at will, the Badgers decided to come after Pryor a bit and got him several times. He doesn't have any type of serious rapport with any one receiver yet, so the time is ripe to be able to pull this off. He's also shown a weakness for trying to create when there's absolutely nothing there -- often losing gigantic chunks of yardage in the process.

The option and Pryor's passing game will only continue to improve, but right now in his career, he's still prone to making the types of mistakes that take the team out of scoring position.

Here's what I think:
Excellent analysis, Jason. It's almost like you watch film and spend hours thinking about ways of helping your team better itself. Sadly, Purdue's coaching staff doesn't do that too much...But, if they do, say come out strong versus an opponent, they surely will not make adjustments at halftime as I'm convinced they believe, by rule, a team must stay in a scheme for an entire contest. If Purdue does what you suggest, and succeeds, look for the vest to make adjustments at the quarter or half and Purdue to do nothing to counter...thus, the Bucks will run away in the final two quarters.

I tend to agree with you about Painter- he's no schmo...but he sure has played like one lately. Purdue has no threat of the deep ball, whether on the sideline or in the middle. In fact, there's only been one pass completed for more than 40 yards on the season...and that was v. Northern Colorado. Plus, Painter's achilles heel has always been throwing into the middle of the field.

The starting premise that Sheets will get yards in chunks might be harder to come by than you think too as Tiller and Z seem to think the draw is the smartest running play they can run with the undersized back and the underwhelming run-blocking line...Sweeps and delays seemed to have worked well...but you won't see too many of those. If you do, Sheets will get his yards.

Defensively, Purdue almost never blitzes...it works too well when they do. Instead, they apply a super-slow collapsing pocket that gives opposing quarterbacks the option to run as it breaks down or pick the place to pass (usually in the middle due to poor LB pass coverage). Purdue's team is not untalented or horribly slow or undersized, but they are absolutely poorly coached and underprepared...not to mention emotionally dead in most games. Nice combo.