We'll have more thoughts on this season and the next in the coming days and weeks.
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As I predicted in August, the Boilers finished 5-7. I wish I had been wrong on this one. At first glance, the program appears to be about where it was at the end of 2008: another lackluster record, another easy win over IU, another handful of “would’ve/could’ve/should’ve” losses. But upon further review, this was a successful year and could serve as the foundation for a perennial bowl-bound program, one that has the chance to challenge for Big Ten championships every four years or so. This is a legitimate and reasonable expectation for Purdue fans, and for the first time since Brees departed, it seems the Purdue coaching staff is comfortable with the notion of competing with—and beating anyone on—the schedule.
I think the 2009 campaign was a success for four reasons:
First, Hope got this team to overachieve. From 2002-2008, Tiller did the very opposite, especially in 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008. According to virtually every preseason prediction, Purdue was supposed to finish tenth or eleventh in the conference. Depending on how you count, Purdue finished tied for fourth or tied for sixth. No one expected the Boilers to win more than two conference games; they won four.
Second, specific to Hope, the first-year coach did better than most of his predecessors, at least in conference games. First seasons have not been kind to Purdue coaches. In fact, only six since 1922 have reached the five-win threshold. Most have finished worse than Hope
in-conference. Consider the numbers:
1922 Jim Phelan 1-5-1 (9th in conference)
1930 Noble Kizer 6-2-0 (3rd)
1937 Mal Elward 4-3-1 (4th)
1942 Elmer Burnham 1-8-0 (8th)
1944 Cecil Isbell 5-5-0 (3rd)
1947 Stu Holcomb 5-4-0 (3rd)
1956 Jack Mollenkopf 3-4-2 (7th)
1970 Bob DeMoss 4-6-0 (8th)
1973 Alex Agase 5-6-0 (4th)
1977 Jim Young 5-6-0 (6th)
1982 Leon Burtnett 3-8-0 (7th)
1987 Fred Akers 3-7-1 (6th)
1991 Jim Colletto 4-7-0 (6th)
1997 Joe Tiller 9-3-0 (2nd)
Third, the team broke what Hope calls “jinx streaks” by ending long winless streaks against top-ten opponents, ranked opponents and road opponents. The team also ended 44 years of futility at Michigan Stadium.
That leads us to a fourth reason for optimism: the intangibles represented by Hope’s passion. Tiller had “managed expectations” so effectively that none of the Purdue faithful—including hisplayers—thought beating a ranked team or a road team or a top-ten team or Michigan in Ann Arbor was possible. That changed this year, and it’s a direct function of Hope’s attitude.
Next step: a bowl victory in 2010 (or dare I say 2011?). This is exceedingly achievable, given the progress that should come as Hope’s system takes hold, as the team takes on his toughness and as the schedule softens. I am bullish and—surprise—hopeful for big things.
Sept. 4 - at Notre Dame (L)Sept. 11 - WESTERN ILLINOIS (W)
Sept. 18 - BALL STATE (W)
Sept. 25 - TOLEDO (W)
Oct. 9 - at Northwestern (W)
Oct. 16 - MINNESOTA (W)
Oct. 23 - at Ohio State (L)
Oct. 30 - at Illinois (W)
Nov. 6 - WISCONSIN (W)
Nov. 13 - MICHIGAN (W/L)
Nov. 20 - at Michigan State (L)
Nov. 27 – INDIANA (W)
9-3, 6-2 or 8-4, 5-3
The former would be good enough for a January 1 trip to the Gator or Outback; the latter would take Purdue to the Insight on New Year’s Eve. Of course, we should have plenty to cheer about through the end of March.
13 comments:
We're taking down ND. Weis will be gone. Jimmy Montana and Golden Tate may go pro. The defense will still be awful. The cupboard will be bare again.
ND up 1st is a really interesting game. With the talk of Fat Charlie's potential firing and discussions about Clausen leaving to go to the draft, we could be facing them with a new coach/qb on their side, and a new qb (Marve)on our side. First games are always strange. I don't want to write us off immediately, but I would feel better about that game if it were a few weeks into the season.
It's a little early to be getting starry-eyed about 9 wins and a Jan 1 bowl.
Hey, with Coach Hope in charge, maybe it's not to early to be dreaming about somewhere warm on New Year's Eve/Day?
I am bullish as well. I think Hope was a great hire and the perfect guy for the job. I can't wait to see Marve in action next year. Our offense should be potent with Marve, Bolden, McBurse, Smith, Ross, etc..
Don't get me wrong -- I think it's great to dream big, too. But 5-7, even with encouraging signs, is still 5-7, you know?
I love that they broke some terrible streaks, but I don't love that they lost some very winnable games and also lost games they were close to pulling upsets in. If ANY of those had gone our way, it's a bowl season -- which would indeed be amazing.
Still, the 4-4 conference mark is something I've very proud of... especially when genius sites like The Rivalry, Esq. had Purdue at 1-11. Well done, smart guys!
Sept. 4 - at Notre Dame (W)
Sept. 11 - WESTERN ILLINOIS (W)
Sept. 18 - BALL STATE (W)
Sept. 25 - TOLEDO (W)
Oct. 9 - at Northwestern (W)
Oct. 16 - MINNESOTA (W)
Oct. 23 - at Ohio State (L)
Oct. 30 - at Illinois (W)
Nov. 6 - WISCONSIN (L)
Nov. 13 - MICHIGAN (W)
Nov. 20 - at Michigan State (L)
Nov. 27 – INDIANA (W)
9-3 is my early prediction. I think we lose one more game, but I just can't see us losing to NU, Michigan, or Illinois given what's happened in those games the last 2 years.
This prediction is early, but with this season fresh in our minds, it might be a better time to think about than a few months from now...but we'll still talk about it then as well.
The holes left in the defense, to me, are more bothersome than anything.
Neal's loss, if one of the Freshman isn't an absolute mother could be costly...and I'm hoping to see Holland moved back to SS as Higgs and Beckford moved toward starting. The holes in the defensive backfield are definitely a concern.
I think Hope needs to shuffle around his coaches a little, and maybe get rid of one or two. Special teams, anyone? No one is going 9-3 if the basic fundamentals aren't there.
I do think the team will be better next year.
I am glad to see this year's team pull it together and go out winners in Bloomington.
But more importantly now, I am anxious to see Hope's first class come back as sophomores. There were names missing from the roster that I think will have an impact next year - Foy, Aristide, Bush, Reese.
Also, who WILL the QB be? We all know it could be Marve, but what about Henry, or Robinson, Tyler – I even heard my first "Siller is coming back" rumor...
All I know is, Hope has given the Boilers some sorely needed swagger, and I am already counting the days to kickoff 2010.
We gave you a "Siller is coming back" rumor many months ago. :-)
Marve's the guy unless he does something to lose it. That's our feeling as of right now.
Sept. 4 - at Notre Dame (W)
Sept. 11 - WESTERN ILLINOIS (W)
Sept. 18 - BALL STATE (W)
Sept. 25 - TOLEDO (W)
Oct. 9 - at Northwestern (L)
Oct. 16 - MINNESOTA (W)
Oct. 23 - at Ohio State (L)
Oct. 30 - at Illinois (W)
Nov. 6 - WISCONSIN (L)
Nov. 13 - MICHIGAN (L)
Nov. 20 - at Michigan State (W)
Nov. 27 – INDIANA (W)
I think we will continue to struggle against the spread until I see otherwise. I also hope we get more speed on the field. I don't think the offense will reach its peak until we have WRs who can break away. We can't always rely on DBs to fall asleep.
The Bucket game worries me because it's at home, we should still be better than IU, and we'll be playing for bowl position whereas they could be playing simply to ruin our season. (Except I think they'll be 5-6 at that point. IU's non-conference schedule is I-AA Towson State, Central Michigan, Western Kentucky, and Akron. CMU will beat them, but they'll roll the others.) And in the past, that doesn't always work for us.
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