Half Empty or Half Full: Another Look at the CBI

J and I discussed this earlier today, and I think our opinions are a bit different about the CBI draw.

On one hand, no Purdue fan should think the CBI is an acceptable destination for this or any other Purdue basketball team.  There's too much talent on this team for them to be in the third-tier tournament.

On the other hand, Purdue is exactly where they should be, based on their play this year.  In late December, it looked like Purdue might have figured some things out as they began to play with some cohesiveness...two months later, after getting shellacked by good and not-so-good teams alike, they seemed to be in disarray...THEN, they played a really solid stretch of basketball in which they looked like the team I thought they'd be in February/March.  Finally, they completely soiled the bed versus Nebraska in an uninspired game loss v. Nebraska.

The wake of that last game felt like the first Northwestern game, the second Iowa game or either IU game...The team didn't look like they cared to be playing that much.  And when I see a team play that way, I feel regret for wasting my time watching them.  Sadly, I'm an addict, and will watch Purdue play, even when they're bad...over and over and over and...

I still have a sour taste in my mouth from the Nebraska game. A team that looks like a MAC team controlled Purdue for most of the game. Their coach had them hustling for 50/50 balls, fighting and playing their best ball...Purdue, on the other hand was playing well below their ability, and worse, seemed to not want to be there. If there are any Purdue players or coaches reading this, I'm sure they can understand why Purdue fans don't really like watching a team that doesn't seem to like itself much and seems to play hard every now and again.

I'm not condoning giving up on Purdue basketball...but I do understand why many have wanted to take a break until next year.  This was a tough season for all parts involved. And now, the fruits of Purdue's labor for the '12-'13 season is college basketball's equivalent of the participation trophy: the College Basketball Invitational tournament invite.

Like all addicts, I've been trying to find a way to get my next fix this morning. I want to go up and watch the football team practice this week and might also see if I can get some tix to the Western Illinois game while I'm at it on Wednesday. I've legitimized my poor behavior by saying I'm already going to be on campus, the real tourney isn't even playing that night and my son's basketball league ended on Saturday...I'm sick, I know I won't feel good about myself on Thursday morning; Beating a Summit League foe in March will be tough scenario to get excited about...and God forbid how my head will pound on Thursday morning if they should lose the game.

But let's look to the very recent past for positivity and perspective about the CBI to help us through this, shall we?

The 2012 CBI had a couple basketball powers in it- Butler; a two-time tourney finalist in the last five seasons and Pitt who is almost always ranked in the top-15-20 (but typically underwhelms in March).

This year, those two teams are both in the dance- Butler had a solid season, same goes for Pitt...but both showed a ton more fight than last season.

First off, Butler was pretty young in '12...in the wake of losing three of the best players in program history in the previous two seasons (Heyward, then Mack and Howard), Butler lacked identity and continuity and experience.

Next up, Pitt.  They began the season as a top-10 team.  But, an 8-loss streak and a 5-loss streak toward the end of the regular season made them a team that no one outside of the city of the 'Burgh cared too much about.  They had three Seniors on the roster, one didn't play much...the other two carried much of the load...but experienced depth was a problem.

One big difference from our Boilers in '13 and these two in '12 was they both finished over .500.

Pitt won the three game championship series v. Oregon State...Butler lost to Pitt in the semis.  Did the CBI give these two teams momentum heading into this season or were they just cases of big fish in a small pond; I think an argument could be made for both sides of that discussion.

Oregon State, like Purdue's opponent in the CBI this season, kinda seems like they're stuck in neutral.  Neither program has progressed since last season.

So what will Purdue gain out of this largely unimportant tournament? Will they be like Pitt and Butler and take a step forward after next season after playing hard in the tourney, or will they be like TCU who wasn't that good last year, and got worse this season?

Time will tell. What we do know is Purdue is that if Purdue deserved any post-season play at all, it is a tournament that is little more than a bunch of scrimmages that no one cares about outside of the two fan bases involved...and even within those fan bases, it's tough to find people that really, truly want to watch the contests.

The good news is, it's really tough to find these games on TV. The former HDNet, now AXS.tv network (I didn't know it existed) will be carrying these...but I think your best bet might be a nostalgic listen to the Cliz, if you're not heading to God's country for football practice the game.

Texas also made the CBI...Texas, whose Coach Rick Barnes made an awful deal with the devil, has had a horrible fall from grace since ye olde days in which they'd be highly ranked before disappointing in March...He got his squad to a game under .500 this season.  If both two teams win two games, they'll play in the semis of the CBI.

*addendum- I just read that there is no football practice that's open to the public on Wednesday...

Fast forward exactly one year from now...

Make your predictions in the comment section:

-What seed will Purdue be in the B1G tourney?
-Who's the starting five?
-National ranking (if any)?
-What else has changed in the conference?

2014 B1G Tourney seeding:
#1 MSU
#2 UM
#3 aOSU
#4 Purdue
#5 IU
#6 Wisconsin

Purdue national ranking: #19

Purdue starting 5:

1 RonJohn
2 TJohn
3 RayDay
4 Hale
5 Hammons

Sixth man: Simpson

Purdue forecasted as 4 or 5 in NCAA tourney

-After losing a heartbreaker to Steve Alford's New Mexico team in the round of 16, IU's Olidipo decides to leave for the NBA...Zeller stays. Tom Crean blames Alford for ruining the conference (for leaving Iowa) and ruining IU's program (for not coaching there) following the game.

-Trey Burke's flirtation with the NBA in '12 becomes much more serious in '13 as he heads to the NBA...the rest of UM's team stays in spite of tourney run to the elite 8.

-Tubby Smith fired from Minnesota after Minnesota misses the NCAA tournament. In an effort to get back to dirty basketball, Minny hires Ben Howland after he's fired by UCLA.

-Illinois' second season in Champaign starts slowly after Illini lose large Senior class...Makes 2014 NCAA tourney.

-aOSU's Deshaun Thomas leaves aOSU after Buckeyes lose in the round of 32 to VCU.

(since I can't see the future, some of this is tongue-in-cheek...other parts are my best guess; you can decide which parts are serious)

The Future: Three Headed Johnson

Purdue’s 2012-2013 basketball team likely will come down to how well our Johnsons are performing...Something that is generally a personal issue will become relevant to every Purdue fan.  Here is a look at the newest baby Johnson.

Ronnie Johnson is the younger brother of Terone and will likely see massive amounts of playing time for a freshman.

He just finished up a great senior season averaging 20.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, a little over two rebounds and shot almost 40 percent from beyond the arc.

Johnson is going to be a key to success for the Boilermakers in the coming seasons.  Losing Lewis Jackson is going to hurt, but LewJack's game was limited in ways that  RonJon's is not. 

Johnson’s offensive game is much more well-rounded than was Jackson's, but Lew’s fight, drive, leadership and defense are places in which he will be most missed. But in a way, we have LewJack 2.0 coming in to Purdue. It’s too early to tell if the sequel is going to be a Godfather II or something like Staying Alive (an awful sequel to Saturday Night fever).

In my opinion, we are in for a treat in the coming years with Ronnie. Being fast, quick, and full of defensive prowess, he is going to make some big noise in the Big Ten within the next two seasons.

Although there are high expectations for the Johnsons, remember he is still growing as a player and adjusting to the pace and physicality of the B1G is not easy to do. It’s going to take some growing and learning, but this kid will be in the starting line-up by the end of the next season, if not sooner.

One issue I have with Johnson's game is his rebounding. Although Johnson played on a team with "bigs" he is going to need to work on his rebounding.  His rebounding numbers this season were low, yet at Purdue, rebounding guards are key to success...and his predecessor, in spite of a lack of size, pulled down a ton of boards.

Having a little range to his shot, Johnson is going to provide something Purdue hasn’t seen from a point in years- a legitimate threat to score from long distance with regularity.

Johnson's deceptive quickness, unselfishness, court vision, shooting ability, understanding of the game and all-around grittiness are some of the things that might make him a great college player. It should be exciting in the next few years to watch him alongside his brother...as well as AJ, in the coming seasons. And if nothing else, it'll be fun to hear Cliz squirm the first few times they're all on the court together.  

As just one part of a great class coming in, Purdue has a solid foundation for the next few seasons.  These guys will need to be instantly impactful for Purdue to have success in '12/'13...and with many needs in both the backcourt and front court, they'll have the chance. A lot of people, both inside and outside of the media, are overlooking this group due to the hype surrounding the high rank of Crean’s Clowns in Bloomington.  Seriously though, how are you supposed to keep a straight face when the coach tells you to guard Yogi, or even better Peter Jerkin.

Our three-headed Johnson will surely dominate Peter Jerkin, see what I did there? 

Looking Ahead At The Boilers' Murderous Schedule

I noted in my write-up of the Iowa game that Purdue's next five games were a tall order, which got me to thinking (and let's be honest, how often does that happen?)... what about beyond those five games? Does it get easier? Is this one of those key stretches that every good team needs to struggle/grow through? So I looked ahead. And then I wished I didn't. So now I want to share those concerns with you.

B-dowd and I have had some spirited debate about the risks of this team actually not making the tournament. I don't think there's any chance of them missing it, but then maybe that's because I don't want to consider that possibility. I'll say it: Rob, Ryne and Lew ending their careers at Purdue in the NIT would be crushing. But what's it going to take? Let's look.

I think it's important not to look at schedules as a whole because it can be overwhelming. You're not playing those games all at once and you might catch a team at just the right time (like oh, say, Nebraska did last night -- zing). So it makes sense to look at definable chunks of the season. Last year featured a brutal stretch against ranked conference foes and difficult road venues that looked ridiculously daunting but that our boys did well through and made us proud. They didn't win the conference, but they made OSU actually look in their mirror and that was something of an accomplishment last year given how dominant the Bucks were.

So let's look at the next five.

@MSU (#9) -- While playing at Breslin is never an easy task, I do feel like this collection of Boilers is at least not wide-eyed about it. In fact, you could argue this team almost never goes into a venue and has lost before they enter. I think this sometimes happens at Mackey and other barns, but one of the things I've loved about the Painter era is that no matter how badly stacked the odds appear, there's always a chance and blowout losses are rare.

vs Mich (#19) -- Similarly, I don't think the Boilers will be intimidated or concerned (beyond the required level of respect) by the Wolverines. They're a very good team but they have their letdowns and these Belein teams have seemed to have trouble keeping their composure in intense road locations.

@ Northwestern -- We all know the Cats tend to play well against Purdue and when this is your lone game against a non-ranked opponent in a five game stretch, well, it's not easy. It's a road game and it's one that is your prototypical letdown game, especially if the Boilers come away with wins vs MSU and UM. In fact, if those two wins happen, I would wager a lollipop with you that Purdue comes out flat in Evanston and loses. If they are 3-0 through this stretch after NU, then good things are coming.

vs IU (#13) -- Sure, it's a cliche, but it's true in this case: the records don't matter. They never do. These programs and fan bases pretty much loathe each other and the fun thing is that both readily admit it. It's not that douchey Notre Dame hatred where they pretend they don't care about Purdue. IU fans do care about Purdue and shutting all of us up...and they should. We've said over and over that we want this rivalry back where it belongs. This game will be the most intense we've seen between these two in arguably a decade. 

@OSU (#6) -- OSU's quiet arena scares no one, but OSU's talent scares everyone, or at least it should. The Boilers have had some nightmares in Columbus and this is the game I'm most worried about in this stretch.

In my opinion, the Boilers must go 3-2 in this five game stretch. Beat MSU or UM, beat Northwestern and beat IU. Then if one of the others goes your way, terrific. Any worse than that and I'll be on the worried bandwagon.

I think it's interesting that the Boilers essentially alternate home and road games for the rest of the way, with the exception of the Nebraska game slotted in there. And if you are concerned about playing four of five games against ranked teams, if we broaden the viewfinder, we learn that the Boilers pay eight of their last dozen against currently ranked squads.

All that said, our Boilers are a half game out of first in the bananas Big Ten. The conference is there for the taking, every team has flaws and every night produces results no one can predict. It's going to be nuts but it'll be fun.

What's Ahead?

It's Monday...and the last few weeks, it's been hard to find things to talk about following being crushed, so I'm going to look ahead a bit.

Our Boilers could get another win (or even two if the stars align) this season...but it seems the best money would have Purdue ending the season with 4 or 5 wins. Blame it on injuries, the schedule or whatever you'd like. But the state of the program is what it is.

For two straight seasons, we as Purdue fans been reduced to saying things like, "they're young" or "injuries are killing them". These are both truths, but they don't change the fact that these statements are typically those of fans who follow "rebuilding programs" or simply programs that aren't winning.

BUT, before the deluge of injuries this season, Purdue lost to UND and Toledo. Both of these are looking worse and worse as time passes. And, the difference in Hope's staff and the Purdue program taking any steps really forward really lie in those to defeats, it seems. But the past is the past and that can't be changed.

Now looking ahead...

Offensively, the situation is dicey.

In the Spring, Bolden, Marve, K. Smith (if he decides/is able to return) and possibly Ross & Pamphile will probably still be unavailable due to injuries. Add in the normal 2 or 3 players out due to surgery and what are you left with?

Well, Dierking, C. Smith, Carlos, Kerrigan, Werner, Prater, Pierce, Adams and Lindsay will all be gone due to graduation.

So, you'll have Henry v. TerBush (or Robinson) at QB...that position seems OK- at least one should be able to hit receivers in stride for drills.

At WR, there's a ton of speed, but really no one who has shown they can catch the ball consistently outside of Edison and Siller. So, it's Siller, Edison, Bush, Gravesande, Reese, Tommie Thomas and Torwodzu...like I said, talent/speed is fine here...but there are still a ton of questions in the receiving corps that need to be answered.

At tight end, Gabe Holmes is the only guy in the stable that's seen significan't playing time. Sinz and Flood should both be contributors in '11.

Then, at RB Hope will have, ATM (who hasn't played at a consistent high level) and Pegram (who has barely played at all) available. After that, a bunch of fullbacks- Freytag, Crank and Jackson...and we all know how often the FB is used in this offense.

The OL actually should be fine...lots of different guys have seen PT that will be available in the spring. But next season, for the first time in a long time, we might see an OL that averages under 300 pounds...I think you have to go back 15 years to find the last time that's happened. Reference Michigan to see if that's a good thing in the Big Ten.

Much like last spring, the offense will not be able to field two solid units due to attrition for a number of reasons...and who is to say whether or not Marve and Bolden will EVER be able to play at a high level again? As you all know, I like both of these guys and hate seeing it- hope they can both get degrees at the very least. But what we're left with is a team that needs time and needs reps as it is a program that has to develop players over seasons/off-seasons...and this coming spring looks like it might be of little value from a developmental standpoint...much like last spring.

Defensively, the personnel looks much better, surprisingly.

Purdue will have Maci at one DE...he's gonna be solid at the very least- kind of like Kevin Nesfield a few years ago. But, he doesn't seem to be cut from the same cloth as the great DEs of the past 15 years. Opposite him, Gooden will be a Senior...but his play seems to be declining with time. Can you remember a DE in recent memory who has had more opportunity and less-production? It doesn't seem to matter that he's flanked by a guy that's perpetually double-teamed and two DTs that are very good...he has yet to show significant improvement. After those two, I don't see a guy at DE that I'm really excited to see on the field...hopefully someone develops and I'm wrong. I think Mebane might still develop, but he still is built like an LB (and a lean one at that)...Hopefully Higgs is moved in the off-season to add depth to the group. Honestly, I don't know what the other options are.

At tackle, Purdue seems kinda rich, especially in comparison to other positions. Short and Gaston are guys that most teams would want on their roster- great size, great footwork, good motors. Isaac, Kitchens, Taylor & McDaniel bolster the position...DT should be solid.

At LB, there's some talent, speed and size. Carlino and Holland finish what seems to be, their 15th years on campus working hard but missing a ton of tackles in the process. I don't have any problem with these two, because their attitude and work ethic seem to be a real positive...plus, there's depth at the position. Beckford, Greaves, Lucas and Gilliam should all be in the mix in '11.

The DBs should be a solid unit- Allen, Johnson and Williams are are starters at CB. Eargle and Charlot, with everyone healthy, are solid off the bench. Evans, when healthy is a very hard-hitter who is solid in coverage. After these guys, Aristide might still pan out (but I have a feeling he might not finish at Purdue)...Harris and E.J. Johnson should both contribute significantly next season.

The kickers & punters should all be fine...but I'm still not pleased with what I see from the Special teams units as a whole. Poor spacing, poor and nonchalant handling of the ball and bad tackling are recurring problems that won't go anywhere if changes aren't made on Special teams.

Many correctly call a Purdue a developmental program- one that develops marginally-rated players out of high school into good football players by the time they leave campus. I'd agree that with the way recruiting tends to go for our Boilers, that this assessment is correct. That said, we saw last Spring come and go with little development, and few steps taken forward, due to Purdue not having enough hands on deck to scrimmage effectively or even do some drills the right way. This off-season, especially on the offensive side of the ball, things look similar.

Granted guys like Edgerton, Bergler, Noel, Durrett and more-recently, Barbarette and TerBush have helped the entire team develop by being Spring football studs...but a season of dashed potential and uncertainty looks like it's going to be followed up by an off-season of healing and more question marks at multiple positions.

Lots can change in the coming months...I understand that. In the meantime, hopefully we'll have something to talk about next Monday other than another loss in which the game is never in doubt, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Taking The Next Step: A Plan

We've been here before as a fanbase...on the cusp of greatness, a step from the precipice of something large.

My memories as a Purdue fan go back pretty far...or not far at all, depending on your perspective. I've been a fan since my Dad brainwashed me in the mid-70s by exposing me to the old gold and black every chance he could...but chose to do so sometimes in the early-80s...and I know this feeling.

My favorite team is good...pretty-damned good, actually. I can almost smell, taste and touch the elusive "next step". But, I can do nothing to help achieve it, quite honestly. In this case, it comes down to Matty and his boys.

So what do they need to do to get to the Final Four, or dare I say it, become National Champs? I think we all have opinions, but here's what I see as the keys:

The Frontcourt is priority one.
I'm not saying it's impossible without him, but a ton less-likely. So JJ's gotta return...but return with resolve. We've seen a dominant 25 and an apathetic one...sometimes in the same game, and that up and down play has gotta go...for lots of reasons. I'm not saying the guy can't have an off game, but I am saying neither he, nor his teammates can afford Johnson playing soft, accepting 20-foot jumpers without anybody under to rebound, or simply watching as Hummel makes the glass squeaky clean.

He knows it and so do his competitors- His frame sometimes makes it hard for him to hold his ground. But, his biggest limitation isn't the broadness of his shoulders, instead, it's inside his ribcage. He's dominated some great big men...and been dominated by Tom Pritchard. That should NEVER happen. After his Frosh year, I was hoping to see him bulk up...prior to his Senior year, I don't think anyone is expecting that. But J, it's time to get mad. Let me just say, I think it's great that you're a nice guy. I'm positive I'd like you off the court. But on, it might be time to create a straw man- an enemy that doesn't exist...and level him each and every game. We know you've got it in you.

Next up, his proteges are a key to success. Sandi Marcius needs to work on his footwork, I'm told...but that's conjecture as I've never seen him play. He's a bit like Batman...his legend is great, his figure is imposing...but he's surrounded in mystery. His size makes him an easy candidate for the team goon or enforcer...but, I think we might have the wrong guy- I'll get to that in a second. But, I think it's fair to be excited to see Marcius finally suited up.

Patrick Bade, in my opinion, can play the goon next year. He's not as big as Marcius, but, he's an ex-football player, so he's hit some people...And I got faith in this guy. We've seen flashes of what he can be, although brief...but there's reason to believe. Hit the weights hard, Patrick, pack on some football weight, watch some old tapes of the guy that earned schollie offers from bigtime programs, and shock everybody (except me). I think he has a real chance to be an impact player, especially on the glass, in '10/'11.

Travis Carroll- Love his size and touch...but think, unless the protein powder and time in Mollenkopf "take", he might need a redshirt year. I'm not saying it's a done deal, but to me, it seems likely. That said, if I was Painter, I wouldn't redshirt any of the bigs as depth underneath is imperative on the stretch run.

Donnie Hale is a bit of an X-Factor. First off, we don't even know if he'll be at Purdue next year as there might not be a scholarship open for him if someone doesn't leave...but I just feel that somehow, he'll be playing for Purdue next season...and I actually think he'll be significant for the team. He's a bit of a tweener as he's built like JJ, but isn't as tall...is nearly the same height as the Ostrich, but isn't quite as skilled. So as a five-tool, he might back up different guys in different situations. And his athleticism will help him in this foreign role.

Now, onto the backcourt
I'll start closer to the basket with our pal, Ostrich. If anyone sees Rob, tell him, "take it easy." You can't give that request to every player on the mend, but you can to Rob...because you know he won't. I don't want him rushing back too, too quickly, and think that Shelborn's staff will make sure he doesn't put himself in the position to hurt something around the repaired ligament as he pushes himself...But, I can't wait to see him back on the court...but I can guarantee that all of his competition is even more-grateful that this is his last season in West Lafayette. Here's to seeing a complete season from November to April without any major setbacks. I'm sure his family and friends will be praying for him- that might be the best thing for him right now.

I have a dream that Kelsey Barlow will be able to back up Hummel next year...and I think this dream has legs, when you look at the positional riches. But, to back up Hummel, Kelsey's gotta work on his J. That and free throws are the key to what impact he'll have offensively in the next season. As we've all seen with Hummel, a player in this position can get rich if he hits the undefensible 15-footers. We all know he has some natural tools- length, athleticism...and I actually think he might still grow a bit before he's done in West Lafayette...Have you seen his pops?

Smooge- Hope you're reading this- You can be better. Yeah, I said it.

Look at what this guy has done since he got to Purdue- he's quietly become one of the best defenders on the team, developed a bunch of different ways to kill his opponent...and he knows, there's more left in the tank...and bigger than that, there's a ton of fuel in the lower abdomen. I saw some glimpses of the fire this guy has, and I like it. If he can use that to fuel him this summer...uh oh, BT opponents.

And speaking of mean SOBs, DJ Byrd, come on down! You're the guy that I'm stoked to see with a year of experience under his belt more than anybody. I think he'll become a guy who dives for loose balls and leads the charge when the team needs a spark and ain't skerrrrrrred of anybody. Atop that, he can make it rain like Seattle in the springtime. Keep the head shaved DJ, I think it works.

Instant offense: a three-prong approach. Ryne Smith from behind the arc (work on your nerves, my man...and show us what everyone sees in practice), John Hart creating his own shot and loosening up tough defensive teams, and Anthony Johnson from anywhere. I see Johnson making some big, key shots late in the season, but am not going to ask too much from him initially...but this dude can fill. Hopefully, he can pack on some weight as the pounding of the BT, especially the way Matty will demand him to play defense, is going to take some physical maturity.

The 2-headed point guard monster will be fun to watch. And before you tell me that Terone Johnson is a scorer, I know he is. In fact, I think he might start at shooting guard. But, I think he can back up Jackson from time-to-time too...and I think that frees up Barlow, which I like. Sure, it'll probably be a combo of the three running the point, but a healthy LewJack will probably do the lion's share of the bidding. I love the problem Matty's going to have in the backcourt...just too much talent, not enough positions or minutes.

It's almost like we're seeing the program in the best position it's been in for a decade or more...kinda like it's been designed to happen this way- That's because it has. And in my opinion, if these guys can stick together while busting their collective ass this offseason, the road, undeniably leads back to Reliant Stadium to complete the unfinished business...of not just this past season, but the past 30.

A Season's Perspective (and a look ahead)

My brother sent me an e-mail with his thoughts about this football season...and some of it surprised me a bit. He wasn't a proponent of Hope's hiring when it happened and was less-than-optimistic about this season in August...But, it sounds like his (like many Boilers') outlook might have changed after watching the '09 Boilers...below is what he had to say.

We'll have more thoughts on this season and the next in the coming days and weeks.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

As I predicted in August, the Boilers finished 5-7. I wish I had been wrong on this one. At first glance, the program appears to be about where it was at the end of 2008: another lackluster record, another easy win over IU, another handful of “would’ve/could’ve/should’ve” losses. But upon further review, this was a successful year and could serve as the foundation for a perennial bowl-bound program, one that has the chance to challenge for Big Ten championships every four years or so. This is a legitimate and reasonable expectation for Purdue fans, and for the first time since Brees departed, it seems the Purdue coaching staff is comfortable with the notion of competing with—and beating anyone on—the schedule.

I think the 2009 campaign was a success for four reasons:

First, Hope got this team to overachieve. From 2002-2008, Tiller did the very opposite, especially in 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008. According to virtually every preseason prediction, Purdue was supposed to finish tenth or eleventh in the conference. Depending on how you count, Purdue finished tied for fourth or tied for sixth. No one expected the Boilers to win more than two conference games; they won four.

Second, specific to Hope, the first-year coach did better than most of his predecessors, at least in conference games. First seasons have not been kind to Purdue coaches. In fact, only six since 1922 have reached the five-win threshold. Most have finished worse than Hope
in-conference. Consider the numbers:

1922 Jim Phelan 1-5-1 (9th in conference)
1930 Noble Kizer 6-2-0 (3rd)
1937 Mal Elward 4-3-1 (4th)
1942 Elmer Burnham 1-8-0 (8th)
1944 Cecil Isbell 5-5-0 (3rd)
1947 Stu Holcomb 5-4-0 (3rd)
1956 Jack Mollenkopf 3-4-2 (7th)
1970 Bob DeMoss 4-6-0 (8th)
1973 Alex Agase 5-6-0 (4th)
1977 Jim Young 5-6-0 (6th)
1982 Leon Burtnett 3-8-0 (7th)
1987 Fred Akers 3-7-1 (6th)
1991 Jim Colletto 4-7-0 (6th)
1997 Joe Tiller 9-3-0 (2nd)

Third, the team broke what Hope calls “jinx streaks” by ending long winless streaks against top-ten opponents, ranked opponents and road opponents. The team also ended 44 years of futility at Michigan Stadium.
That leads us to a fourth reason for optimism: the intangibles represented by Hope’s passion. Tiller had “managed expectations” so effectively that none of the Purdue faithful—including his
players—thought beating a ranked team or a road team or a top-ten team or Michigan in Ann Arbor was possible. That changed this year, and it’s a direct function of Hope’s attitude.

Next step: a bowl victory in 2010 (or dare I say 2011?). This is exceedingly achievable, given the progress that should come as Hope’s system takes hold, as the team takes on his toughness and as the schedule softens. I am bullish and—surprise—hopeful for big things.
Sept. 4 - at Notre Dame (L)
Sept. 11 - WESTERN ILLINOIS (W)
Sept. 18 - BALL STATE (W)
Sept. 25 - TOLEDO (W)
Oct. 9 - at Northwestern (W)
Oct. 16 - MINNESOTA (W)
Oct. 23 - at Ohio State (L)
Oct. 30 - at Illinois (W)
Nov. 6 - WISCONSIN (W)
Nov. 13 - MICHIGAN (W/L)
Nov. 20 - at Michigan State (L)
Nov. 27 – INDIANA (W)
9-3, 6-2 or 8-4, 5-3

The former would be good enough for a January 1 trip to the Gator or Outback; the latter would take Purdue to the Insight on New Year’s Eve. Of course, we should have plenty to cheer about through the end of March.