Sunday, July 17, 2011

Purdue Football Part 2: Reasons for Concern

If you've read the prognostication mags, you've seen Purdue is picked in the mid-40s to lower-70s, depending on the source. The Sporting News has Hope's boys finishing a rock-solid 7-5 and Athlon flips it over to 5-7.

On the Knucklehead board some are concerned, some cautiously-optimistic, but many are flat-out wearing gold-shaded Ray-Bans...and good for them, I guess. At the very minimum, they'll enjoy their summer in bliss as they look ahead to the weather cooling down in God's country.

Regardless of where you stand in your prognostications, if you watched Purdue, you probably saw what we saw- there are a ton of question marks coming into this season. In our last segment of this three part series, we talked about the positives. In this part, we'll look at the things that concern us...if you don't like this part of the series, you'll hate part three.

But first, here we go:

-As confident as we are in the defensive backfield, we might be equally-doubt-filled about the
receiving corps...and that's not because there's not talent in the stable, but there's just so little that's been proven by this group...and that's a tough pill to swallow for a fanbase of the program that's produced some of the best college quarterbacks ever to play the game. Those great quarterbacks always had receivers and tight ends they could count on in the clutch- Smith, Bryant, Keller, Stubblefield, Davis, Standeford, Stratton, Sutherland, Daniels, Alford...all put up big numbers and were big-time threats. Amazingly, these guys all donned Purdue unis in just the last 15 years. But for the first time in a long time, Purdue returns no proven commodity in the hands positions.

The closest to proven is Antavian Edison...and the elusive, versatile receiver out of Fort Myers, FL has only had 330 yards receiving and 5 TDs in his career. After Edison, pretty much everyone is just great potential- The speedy OJ Ross could be a tough match-up, Justin Siller is as big and strong as about any receiver in the league and runs tight routs and Gary Bush could develop into a deep threat...but after that, the experience just isn't there.

Holmes or Sinz could become valuable dump-off options, Mostert might make a splash on his first year on campus, Harris could cross over to the offensive side of the ball and make noise, Macarthy might eventually follow in Smith and Siller's footsteps to become a big, capable receiver who was once a QB...Who knows. But, based on numbers and experience alone, there's not too much that's predictable in this corps and there's simply no known commodity.

-The penciled-in starting QB proved himself to be an elusive runner and inconsistent passer in '10. He only completed 53% of his passes, and had 8 TDs and 7 Ints last season after being rushed into the starting role following Marve's injury. At the same time, he led the team in rushing, averaging 5.3/attempt and a total of 547 yds and 4 rushing TDs.

You might think the latter part of those stats would make us happy, but a quarterback that struggles passing the ball and is successful rushing the ball only makes me more concerned as Purdue really needs to be able to pass with some consistency in '11.

Probably the most-concerning player in the stable is Marve- not because what he will or won't do on the field, but because I think every Purdue fan just wants to see him end his college career healthy. The last update we heard from Hope was that he's still still not 100%...and based on what we saw last season, Hope and Co. need everyone healthy...at least in the top-3 of the depth chart.

The last QB in that 3-man chart is TerBush whose potential is still pretty great, but outside of spot duty and spring scrimmages, no one really knows how he is in game situations.

-If Ralph Bolden had never gotten re-injured, and ATM hadn't transferred, I might not have RBs as a reason for concern...but both things happened, and Purdue's offensive backfield is once-again wrought with question marks.

Bolden says he's feeling great, but full contact is much different from limited contact, drills and workouts...but everyone's rooting for him to do big things. Behind Bolden, JuCo transfer, Shavers will most-definitely see action. After the top of the depth chart, the bigger backs; Pegram, Crank and Jackson might carry the ball a few times in short yardage situations. But I don't foresee a way that Edison and Ross will be able to avoid playing out of the backfield, at least every now and then.

-Defensively, Purdue loses the leading tackle-for-loss player for the past few seasons and a guaranteed double or triple with Ryan Kerrigan's departure. Maci, Mebane and the oft-injured speed rusher, Gooden will try to fill that vacuum on passing downs, and the under-experienced, but talented Frazier, Russell and even Kitchens will look to stop the run on the edges.

If Purdue had a monster opposite him and a young DE with a few starts under his belt to try to replace Kerrigan, we'd be concerned anyway...but a young guy who didn't play a ton and a guy who's struggled to reach his full potential makes us pretty nervous...even with the beef in the middle. This is kind of uncharted territory for us as fans, at least in the last 15-20 years as the Den of Defensive Ends has almost become an entity that doesn't rebuild, but reloads. I'm not too sure if I see an NFL-caliber DE in this corps...but there is potential in the group, just someone has to emerge in a hurry. The DBs should help those guys get up to speed.

-The schedule isn't the worst one we've ever seen...but there's plenty on the docket to make us take notice. First off, and perhaps surprisingly to some, Rice has ex-UM RB Sam McGuffie returning after leading them in rushing and receiving...plus they return most of the rest of their offense. If Purdue's defense can't stop the stuff underneath, one of the games that many thought would be an automatic win could end much differently. Notre Dame will be improved as they have experienced blue-chippers back on both sides of the ball and a coach that knows how to win. After UND, the B1G schedule is stout as usual...and I have a hard time finding four wins in the group...even with a couple of the powers suffering key losses at important positions.

Up next, we'll talk about the aspects of Purdue's 2011 team that have us nearly soiling ourselves.

23 comments:

dozer8589 said...

I agree about the WR corps being thin on experience, but on paper they have the potential to be lethal. I am curious about the combo of Siller and Torwudzo: both 6'4"/200+.

About your next report: "soiling ourselves" as in,"OMG we're terrible" or "OMG we're awesome"?


Verification: "dalit" as in:

"Dalit us up last year, but this year's gonna be different!"

zlionsfan said...

Based on this line:

... if you don't like this part of the series, you'll hate part three.

I'm guessing it's the former. Not that Purdue will be terrible, but that Pete might as well be carrying a question mark on the field ... there are a lot of them this season.

boilerdowd said...

You're correct, Z...I don't think this team will be awful a la the non-competitive teams of the late-80s...but it feels a lot like the early-mid90s to me. Those teams had talent too, but always seemed to lack experience and cohesiveness.

I love the talent (on paper) of Siller, Ross, Edison, Torwudzu, Mostert and Mikesky...but it's tough to be rosy since they just haven't played that much. B1G DBs are good and there's a ton of experience at that position...plus, the lack of a solid running game only makes the concern heightened.

dozer8589 said...

But was the lack of consistency the result of overhauling the offense each week just to field a team?

For me the frustrating thing about Purdue Football the last couple seasons is that I don't have a clear picture of what we have.

Year one: painful, cupboard's empty transitional year.
Year two: young, inexperienced
Year three: Injury-fest
Year four: ?

boilerdowd said...

This is the adage that I often quote, Dozer- bad teams tend to be perpetually young. Think about the last 5 years or so seem to be earmarked by consistent inconsistency...If the offense is doing well (a la 2009), the defense and special teams will fail. If the defense is more solid, the offense can't get its footing.

Erin said...

I think it is telling that the most common answer is that they won't be going to an away game. Purdue can't even fill up home games. It hurts recruiting. Who wants to go to a school that can't fill the stands?

But, I have been complaining about that for years, so I don't see it changing.

Bloomington.Boiler said...

Erin, our recruiting is hurting, just like our program, because of one person, and one person alone: Danny Hope

jbrunner said...

bloomington.boiler- Yeah, and it had NOTHING to do with the bare cabinet Tiller left behind.

It's FAR too early to say things like this.

jbrunner said...

We seemed to lose a quarterback a week! THINK ABOUT IT: Rob Henry found himself out and injured for multiple games.

PU03 said...

I think you meant to describe Henry as an elusive runner, not illusive (meaning lacking in reality, substance or genuineness). Of course with 2011 Purdue football you never know...

boilerdowd said...

03- a friend pointed out my error to me this morning...just getting to it now- thanks.

Riggins said...

Kitchens was moved to OT and played there all spring. he is currently third on the depth chart at OT.

Riggins said...

I think there are many unanswered questions. #1 Will Henry's finger be completely healed or is it permanently damaged? #2 Will using Marve and/or TerBush in the same backfield with Henry help or hurt the offense? #3 Will the WRs be able to get open and catch the ball?

The linebacker play and Secondary play should be improved and if the DE corp is moderately effective the Purdue defense could be very good.

Special teams should be improved with the addition of Mostert, Williams and Richards and new coaches.

I may be too optimistic but I think Purdue will win 6-8 games this season.

jbrunner said...

About the WRs...we know some talent is there. Don't you think things will be better with BYU's WR coach (who was very good and, fyi, produced Austin Collie)?

J Money said...

Did he bring Austin Collie with him? Because that would be awesome.

BoilerBrian said...

It gets worse than this post...oh crap.

jbrunner said...

All of this negativity, J Money. Just remember that OJ Ross can ball.

H. Jones said...

This is year 3 of D. Hope head coaching (year 4 of D. Hope recruiting). Last year was a washout year and will be blamed for not having any capable players. However there are constant flaws of not finishing games they should've won (ND 2 years ago, MSU last 2 years /IU last year), not winning home games against lower conference competition (Toledo, NIU), and they have this great tendency of just mailing it in before they even get off the bus in a couple of winnable games (Minnesota 2 years ago, Illinois last year). Maybe this is basically part 3 of JMoney and Bdowd's piece... but that's what has me scared for this year...

boilerdowd said...

foreshadowing, Jones!

Scruffy_P said...

I just hope that we don't have the usual "not even competitive" game like we've been having. If we're competitive every week and only get 5 wins I will be happy for all the unknowns that we have.

Anonymous said...

A losing season is not acceptable! I defended Hope all last season, but this is put up or shut up time. With the talent on this squad, 6 wins should be a minimum with a good coaching staff. If Hope et al can't do that, he isn't good enough to be a Big Ten coach. Keep Kevin Sumlin on speed dial.

jbrunner said...

Now THAT I can agree with, boxercr. This is put up or shut up time because talent and returning experience is good enough. That's a much better point of view than "we lost a ton of skill players to injury, but I'm still going to trash Hope because its the in thing".

Matt Gentry said...

boxercr I love the Kevin Sumlin idea. I don't really care if it works out or not with Hope. If we got Sumlin here that would be clutch. Think about it, were we better with players from Texas or from Florida?