I don't do this to you very often, but there are like, I don't know, two or three readers of BS who enjoy hockey. And while I use the BS twitter feed to share my observations on NFL Sundays in the fall, for example, I've spared you all from seeing my hockey-related tweets because they are, uh, a bit on the biased side. (I'm basically a drunk guy in Madison Square Garden swearing at things.) But if you're so inclined, you can find J unplugged at @J_Boilermaker on Twitter. I do a lot of Rangers hockey tweeting.
Also, whether you like hockey or not, try telling me this isn't an awesome commercial:
Last year, I made my Stanley Cup Playoff picks exclusively on Twitter and was told when I picked the LA Kings to go far that I was being silly. Then they won the Stanley Cup. So there. More upsets? Glad you (didn't) ask.
Western Conference
(1) Chicago Blackhawks vs (8) Minnesota Wild -- The 8-seed out west will not advance this year. The Blackhawks were insanely good this year, losing only seven games in regulation over the 48-game shortened season. This will be over early. Blackhawks in 5.
(2) Anaheim Ducks vs (7) Detroit Red Wings -- The Wings haven't missed the playoffs since 1990 but came close this year; however, they've gotten things together and the Ducks seem to have cooled. Upset alert. Red Wings in 7.
(3) Vancouver Canucks vs (6) San Jose Sharks -- Two perennial playoff chokers meet; who survives? I'm going to go upset, mainly because Canucks fans are fooling themselves if they think Cory Schneider is going to lead them to the promised land. Sharks in 7.
(4) St. Louis Blues vs (5) Los Angeles Kings -- The Blues seem overmatched here to me. The defending champ Kings have too much talent and won the Cup from the aforementioned 8-seed last year, so being on the road won't scare them at all. Kings in 6.
Eastern Conference
(1) Pittsburgh Penguins vs (8) New York Islanders -- The Isles reward for making it back to the playoffs is to face the high-scoring Pens in the first round. I think the Isles will actually give them some trouble, but not enough to pull the upset. However, this is a rare occurrence where I'll be somewhat pulling for the other hockey team that claims New York. Penguins in 6.
(2) Montreal Canadiens vs (7) Ottawa Senators -- I think everyone will be picking Montreal here and I don't think you'd be crazy to do so, obviously. But their goalie Carey Price has been rocky lately, plus the Sens are playing some of their best hockey right now and got a star defenseman back (Erik Karlsson) who had 70% of his Achilles severed in February. Uh, what? Seriously, hockey players are tough. Senators in 7.
(3) Washington Capitals vs (6) New York Rangers -- The Rangers have been my team since I was a wee lad, mainly because they were my father's team. He began bringing to me to the pot-hazed Garden in the early '80s, thus my combative nature at sporting events (I had a broken leg at the 2001 Rose Bowl and Tim probably remembers me wanting to beat a Washington fan with my crutches). Anyway, the Caps are Hank of Railroad Tie fame's team and this is the fourth meeting in five years for these teams. I still like the Rangers even though the Caps have been hot. Rangers in 7.
(4) Boston Bruins vs (5) Toronto Maple Leafs -- The Leafs haven't been in the playoffs in a long time and sort of coasted to the finish line this year. While there are no easy outs in the Cup playoffs, the Leafs might have been the one team others weren't overly worried about facing. While Boston doesn't score many goals, I think they're a better team with better coaching and toughness. Bruins in 6.
I just checked out the BS Bracket challenge and was kind of astonished at what has transpired. We've got two guys/ladies that are in the driver's seat...If UM wins, one of them will win, if Louisville wins, the other shall win:
I'm almost positive that we've never had a champ that was in the 99.9th percentile...but this year we shall. Not too far down the charts, I see a few names I know; congrats to you guys too! To be in the top 95% in America in guessing who's the champ skillfully predicting the outcome of the tournament is saying something. Thanks to everyone who entered.
I'm not sure why an MSU fan would enter our challenge...nor am I sure why an MSU fan would pull for UM to win it all...if UM wins, I'm sure we'll find out from Spartante86...if L'Ville wins, it'll be dkboilerfan writing the guest post. Either way, the stakes are palpably-high.
Purdue is starting to get votes in the AP poll. Yes, you may or may not have noticed Purdue at the bottom of the AP Top 25 getting a solid five votes. It was obviously spurred by the great performance against "God's Team" but regardless it's exciting. The Boilers have a chance of being ranked under Danny Hope but the Thundering Herd are going to try to nix that.
Coming off of a double overtime thriller, Marshall is going to have some momentum. In that game their high flying offense passed for 259 yards and rushed for 334. They boast the nation's best passing offense and look to dismantle the praised defensive line of the Boilermakers.
I'm concerned about this game. Their rushing attack is good and Purdue's run defense looked subpar in the game against EMU, allowing 169 rush yards. If the Boilers can put together a rush defense similar to that at Notre Dame, it should be no problem.
One has to believe that the Herd is going to key on the running game and try to exploit Purdue's weakness in the linebacker core.
It's going to be key that the Boilermakers can stop the run, which will eliminate the play action which could prove vital for the secondary.
I think it's going to be next to impossible to completely stop Marshall's offense, but containing them is something that is feasible.
Offensively this is going to be a game where the Boilermakers can flex their muscles. Marshall's defense has been lackluster this season, on average allowing 509 yards of total offense per game.
Their goal is to outscore their opponent rather than stop them defensively. If Purdue can limit turnovers, they are looking at a great day offensively. With Marshall giving up around 43 points per game this is an opportunity to showcase the firepower of the offense. Look for TerBush to have a big game this week.
Marshall has a few players to look out for come Saturday. Keep an eye on Rakeem Cato who has thrown for almost 1500 yards this season, averaging 370 per game while passing for 10 touchdowns on the year.
Another star of the Herd is Steward Butler. The freshman is a speedy back that is very comparable to Danny Anthrop. The Herd will run numerous backs in this game most of which have a big play ability. It's going to be important to contain them at the line of scrimmage. Combined, they have 10 touchdowns allowing Marshall to have a balanced attack that is fresh, causing lots of issues for opposing defenders. Their ability to substitute allows each back to compliment one another creating one of the best backfields in football.
The key to this game is going to be the defense containing the Herd offense, as well as the offense putting up some great numbers. I have trouble believing that fewer than four offensive touchdowns is going to win this game.
I look for it to be a great shoot-out but Purdue's defense is going to set them apart and give the Boilers the edge in this one.
After a week that saw the Boilers lose a very winnable game at ND and then QB Robert Marve for at least some amount of time (though he's evidently actually talking about coming back by the Marshall game), I know that I'm not the only one ready to get back to football. And what better medicine for this program in its current state than the Eastern Michigan Eagles?
EMU is 0-2 and now faces Purdue and Michigan State in consecutive weeks. So maybe they'll be looking ahead to their in-state, same-color rival?
Eastern Michigan used to have a native American mascot but decided in 1991 to stop offending Native Americans and switched to "Swoop," pictured here, who interestingly is also the Philadelphia Eagles mascot. So apparently Swoop really likes green. And lousy football.
And away we go.
Boilerdowd sez:
EMU
hasn't played any world beaters thus far, but still has dropped two games (Ball
State and Illinois State). The Eagle team that went 6-6 last season and beat common Purdue
opponent, WMU in a close, low-scoring game, returns a lot of last year's squad,
especially on offense.
Vegas
likes the Boilers a lot, in the wake of whipping the spread in South Bend...and
so do I.
The
TerBush/Henry led offense should score early and often...and Shavers, Holmes
and emerging inside target, Macarthy should get fat off of the respect given to
Purdue's speed.
Hope's
team beats a MAC team it's supposed to...going away as the defense remains rock
solid and Shavers goes for over 100.
Purdue
42
Directional
Michigan MAC squad 10
J sez:
Not much to say here -- Purdue will roll and has zero excuse not to. EMU actually lost at home against Illinois State last weekend, and it wasn't even close. Illinois St. is in the MVC and I don't know this for certain, but I imagine people in the MAC look down on the MVC to some degree, so this probably hurt a bit and probably suggests that EMU really is as bad as we think.
I want to pick a score like 52-7 Boilers, but without Marve chucking it around, I don't think they'll roll it up quite so high. I do think it's going to be nice for Caleb TerBush to get to run the offense at home and against a far less talented team than ND -- we'll then be able to assess how he's progressing, as he'll have one start against a good team and one against a bad one.
Regardless, Danny Hope will have his goofy smile on all day, as Eastern Michigan puts up not nearly the same fight as Western Michigan last December.
Now it's time for the Panda to weigh in on the upcoming football season...
Purdue football has had a tough few years. After finally breaking the bowl drought, the Boilermakers got a big 5 dollar hot and ready pizza for winning the Little Caesars Bowl. Although not very impressive, it's a start.
The big news so far has to be the lack of injuries (knock on wood). The past few seasons the Boilermakers have been having some serious issues with losing key players due to injuries, this year it might just be limited to the Where Else? Bar. I know I won't be sad to see that place disappear soon, and I doubt Morgan Burke sheds a tear either. Barlow on the other hand might just find his wallet.
It seems as though everyone is being extremely optimistic [Not everyone.:-) --J] about Purdue's chances this season in the Big Ten, but I just can't fully see it. Sure I see that Ohio State is ineligible for the upcoming post season and Penn State is in shambles, but that still leaves Wisconsin to look for.
Wisconsin will reload as usual, and the only thing going in our favor is that we don't have to play up there this season. Either way though, Purdue is going to face criticism even if they do win the division, due to the lack of competition. Not something I'm very optimistic about. As a diehard fan my entire life, I want to beat the best, and beating the best means winning when your opponents are full strength, not at the state Ohio State, Penn State, or Illinois is in right now. Now luckily we will be able to face Indiana at full strength, but that's not saying much.
The optimism for this season seems to really rub me the wrong way. In one way I'm glad to see it, but on the other hand it's hard to accept that the only reason we are in the running for a division title is based upon others' expectations or faults. To me optimism should be about the promise we have in this team this season.
Watching Kawann Short have a terrific senior season should be something to be optimistic about, or seeing what Hope can do with a healthy roster that will hopefully not face any injuries.
With Rob Henry being back in playing shape it should be interesting how this season turns out. One thing I'm surely not optimistic about is our chance in a BCS game. That might just get ugly. Although Purdue might be able to turn the corner and get back to something of that caliber again, the Boilermakers are a few years away from that.
As for this season all we can really hope for is to improve on last season's performance, and build on the bowl victory, even if it was the pizza bowl.
Happy, happy, joy, joy!! Here's Boilerdowd's look ahead to the 2012 football season!!!
It's pretty interesting, we're hearing from tons of outlets that Purdue's a darkhorse to win their division this fall and make the 1 hour trip South to Indy for the league championship. To that idea, I have a couple responses: First, if everyone is saying a team might win a division, they're no longer a darkhorse. Second, I just don't get it.
Google gave me this when I looked up "Darkhorse"...so I went with it.
I'm the optimistic one of the two founders of this humble, yet amazingly-awesome website...and I don't see Hope's boys making it to Indy. But, that doesn't mean I'm down on the team by any means. In fact, I think this season can be a pretty fun one...but as J soberingly pointed out, there are quite a few variables in this equation that make a winning season far from a slam dunk.
But since he's already focused on why there's reason for trepidation, let me tell you why this off-season is different.
The QB Battle Can (Should) Be a Positive
We're not in agreement that a 60/40 split of snaps is a good way for a team to handle the quarterback position. In fact, outside of some Wildpete mixed in with the starter, it should be one guy's job. As of now, that guy is Caleb TerBush. It's probably tough for Hope to argue with TerBush's production- he did take the coach to greater heights than he had ever reached in this division...but I don't think it's good enough.
Option 1
TerBush was a fine game manager...but never showed the ability to quickly drive the team down the field when it was absolutely needed. Plus, not one part of his game strikes fear into the hearts of opposing DCs. All that said, he ran the read option in a surprisingly-effective manner- He's deceptively fast and elusive between the tackles...and I said to myself over and over again last year, when he runs the option, I don't worry about what's going to happen; he makes good decisions. But, his good decisions in the running game become slow and conservative in the passing game. The end result was that he took too many sacks and didn't seem to see the field too well before the snap.
He's a team captain, is 7-6 as a starter, and generally doesn't get into trouble. For TerBush to be the starter in front of a healthy Marve, the Purdue defense needs to be the best we've seen in nearly a decade.
Is Marve the key to success?
Option 2
Robert Marve is our guy, in case you didn't already know. We like him so much we lost money printing shirts in support of him a few years ago...and Purdue's Athletic Dept. expressed its support by sending us a cease and desist letter (thanks, by the way).
But what we say last year, and probably even in '10 wasn't a completely-healthy Marve. It doesn't matter to whom you speak in the sports med field, doctors and trainers generally say it takes around 18 months to heal from a torn ACL. In '10, Marve had been healing for 16 months...in '11, he had been healing for 11 months. Both times, he didn't really complain...but he wasn't right. One of those injuries led to a re-injured ACL...the second led to a visibly-hobbled quarterback who wasn't in great shape and couldn't practice for most of the off-season.
Coming into '12, it's different. Marve is completely-healthy. His legs are stronger as he's been able to lift and run on them for the entire off-season...and his arm has always been howitzer-like. But, the knock on Marve for most Purdue fans isn't his body, it's what's between the ears. Many Purdue fans wrote him off last year after dumb plays in limited action. As a #9 apologist, I chalk that up to simply wanting to make the play in limited action...and that mentality, coupled with his abilities is why I think he should be the starter in the fall. But he will not be starting, at least in the first game, if TerBush stays healthy.
Marve is 8-7 as an NCAA starter. He's a guy that says the right things in the media, has a sketchy past as a Hurricane (but says it's all behind him and we've seen nothing to contradict that) and has about every physical gift imaginable. But, his tendency to make snap decisions often gets him and the team in trouble. All that said, he's a strong-willed, fiery leader...and has the ability to move the offense down the field quicker than either of the other two QBs, and can make throws they simply cannot.
Option 3
Rob Henry is a fan and teammate favorite. Like Marve, he's a tremendous huddle and sideline leader. He was a captain last season and is the best athlete of the three. But, like Marve, he's also torn his ACL...and his tear was suffered last August. And, unlike Marve who is a pass-first QB, Henry's strength is running the ball. So, to say that I have doubts in his ability to take the majority of snaps is a massive understatement.
All that said, I think he'll still play a role this year, in one, or many ways for the offense...even if it's not as the starting QB. He's too important and too athletic to keep off the field, if healthy. Perhaps he can take Justin Siller's role as Wildpete QB...and even play a little slot receiver...but I don't see him starting unless an emergency should arise.
Henry is 2-4 as a starter (but he was thrust into the role following Marve's injury). He's an all-around good guy who is so much of a leader that he wanted to lead the student body. He has a career completion percentage of 53.1%, but his damage is done primarily with his feet.
Moving On...
So why did I spend so much time talking about the QBs? Because it matters...and, like many positions, Hope has never had this type of experience returning at a given position. Last season Hope had but one option for the starting QB coming into the season, and it was a guy that had never started a game. The season before, his starter was coming off of transfer and ACL injury...the season before that, the starter hadn't ever started and was coming off of a shoulder injury. The embarrassment of riches behind the center is something that is a big plus IF Hope is willing to make the difficult decision and name an outright starter/offensive leader.
He no longer needs to play a back-up to have him ready in the case of injury...the back-ups already know their roles. Will he be able to make that decision is the question.
On top of healthy/experienced QBs, Hope has a solid RB corps (even with Bolden on the IR), fast but undersized receivers, an experienced OLine corps (but recovering from injuries), a monstrous defensive front and the best group of DBs that we've seen at Purdue in the last 20 years. The only real question mark is the linebackers...and while that is a large question, two of the starters are returning; depth is the real issue.
Purdue is one of the most-experienced teams in the league. And, unlike in many years in recent memory, this isn't experience that you might not want to see return. In this group, there are a few guys on national watch lists (Short and Allen) and some others that are known around the league to be big-play guys (Beckford, Edison, Shavers, Mostert, Gaston, Russell and Johnson).
Experience matters...talent matters...speed matters. Purdue has all of these this season. The question mark that most Purdue fans have is at the top, with Danny Hope. His poor game management, head-scratching decision making, a team that makes more penalties than almost anybody in the league, and OF COURSE, his team's recurring issue of dropping an early game to a team that they have no business losing to. I think you could also talk about an overall problem with the defense coming off of last season. BUT, he made some pretty big changes in the off-season in the coaching staff...I appreciate that and think that will yield dividends.
Even the Hope detractors might want to give the guy some credit- he's trying to change things instead of simply accepting the situation as it lies. I know, I know, you don't coach college football to try hard, but to win...we're in agreement there. But this season, like last season, I think Purdue will win more than they lose- but just how many. Here are my somewhat-educated guesses:
EKU W
UND L
EMU W
Marshall W
UM L
Wisconsin L
aOSU L
Minny W
PSU L
Iowa W
UI W
IU W
7-5 (4-4)
2-3 in Leaders Division
A 2-3 record in the division doesn't really capitalize on a punished Bucknut squad or a PSU team that will probably be playing pretty distracted football...but like it or not, neither of these programs has been crippled by their respective scandals to the level that Purdue will be a hands-down better than either of them. And 7 wins, while good, and better than kissing your sister, isn't really something to burn couches about. But a trip to Arizona or Texas beats the pants off of a bus trip to Detroit any day...and twice in December.
As I told J just recently, I was really excited for the season a few months ago...but as we grow closer and closer to Sept. 1, I grow more and more nervous. And honestly, there are one or two games in my 7 wins that I'm less-than-rock-solid about. That said, I think it's pretty much imperative that Hope leads this team to 7 or more wins. Next year, Short, TerBush, Marve, Shavers, Bolden, Edison, Wright, Drey, Beckford and Johnson will all be gone. So, like it or not, next season there will be quite a few growing pains.
This actually isn't a satirical piece, if you can imagine that. No, we're actually here to give Terry Hutchens his due respect since he got something damn close to accurate -- something that we tweaked him on back in October.
It takes gracious, respectful, non-childish people to admit when they're wrong. We're none of those things, but we're going to show the Indiana University Sportswriter of the Year some respect, anyway.
Ol' Terry had the conference finishing in the order on the left, while the actual finish is on the right:
Terry Reality
1. OSU OSU
2. MSU MSU
3. Wisconsin Michigan
4. Michigan Wisconsin
5. Illinois Indiana
6. Indiana Purdue
7. Purdue Northwestern
8. Northwestern Iowa
9. Iowa Minnesota
10. Minnesota Illinois
11. Nebraska Nebraska
12. Penn State Penn State
So Terry hit four on the nose (first, second, eleventh and twelfth) and almost nailed it all with the exception of Illinois. And who among us could possibly have foreseen Illinois finishing tenth in the conference? But pull them out of the equation and Terry's crystal ball showed the correct order for Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Iowa, Minny, Nebraska and PSU. That's.....actually commendable. If only his crystal ball also told him what pant size to buy Tom Crean next Christmas.
Understand, this is not an endorsement of Terry Hutchens writing. We do not recommend you subject yourself to his inane ramblings, which recently have included a "What if Kentucky missed 14 more free throws against IU?" theme and has generated some hilarious additional article topic suggestions on Twitter. (Search on #futurehutcharticles.)
However, we did call Terry out and while we detest his blatant homerism and gorilla-level writing ability, we wanted to also show we're able to acknowledge when Terry find an acorn and that we were wrong to doubt him.
Of course, Purdue did finish higher that Hutch predicted....so there!
If you've read the prognostication mags, you've seen Purdue is picked in the mid-40s to lower-70s, depending on the source. The Sporting News has Hope's boys finishing a rock-solid 7-5 and Athlon flips it over to 5-7.
On the Knucklehead board some are concerned, some cautiously-optimistic, but many are flat-out wearing gold-shaded Ray-Bans...and good for them, I guess. At the very minimum, they'll enjoy their summer in bliss as they look ahead to the weather cooling down in God's country.
Regardless of where you stand in your prognostications, if you watched Purdue, you probably saw what we saw- there are a ton of question marks coming into this season. In our last segment of this three part series, we talked about the positives. In this part, we'll look at the things that concern us...if you don't like this part of the series, you'll hate part three.
But first, here we go:
-As confident as we are in the defensive backfield, we might be equally-doubt-filled about the
receiving corps...and that's not because there's not talent in the stable, but there's just so little that's been proven by this group...and that's a tough pill to swallow for a fanbase of the program that's produced some of the best college quarterbacks ever to play the game. Those great quarterbacks always had receivers and tight ends they could count on in the clutch- Smith, Bryant, Keller, Stubblefield, Davis, Standeford, Stratton, Sutherland, Daniels, Alford...all put up big numbers and were big-time threats. Amazingly, these guys all donned Purdue unis in just the last 15 years. But for the first time in a long time, Purdue returns no proven commodity in the hands positions.
The closest to proven is Antavian Edison...and the elusive, versatile receiver out of Fort Myers, FL has only had 330 yards receiving and 5 TDs in his career. After Edison, pretty much everyone is just great potential- The speedy OJ Ross could be a tough match-up, Justin Siller is as big and strong as about any receiver in the league and runs tight routs and Gary Bush could develop into a deep threat...but after that, the experience just isn't there.
Holmes or Sinz could become valuable dump-off options, Mostert might make a splash on his first year on campus, Harris could cross over to the offensive side of the ball and make noise, Macarthy might eventually follow in Smith and Siller's footsteps to become a big, capable receiver who was once a QB...Who knows. But, based on numbers and experience alone, there's not too much that's predictable in this corps and there's simply no known commodity.
-The penciled-in starting QB proved himself to be an elusive runner and inconsistent passer in '10. He only completed 53% of his passes, and had 8 TDs and 7 Ints last season after being rushed into the starting role following Marve's injury. At the same time, he led the team in rushing, averaging 5.3/attempt and a total of 547 yds and 4 rushing TDs.
You might think the latter part of those stats would make us happy, but a quarterback that struggles passing the ball and is successful rushing the ball only makes me more concerned as Purdue really needs to be able to pass with some consistency in '11.
Probably the most-concerning player in the stable is Marve- not because what he will or won't do on the field, but because I think every Purdue fan just wants to see him end his college career healthy. The last update we heard from Hope was that he's still still not 100%...and based on what we saw last season, Hope and Co. need everyone healthy...at least in the top-3 of the depth chart.
The last QB in that 3-man chart is TerBush whose potential is still pretty great, but outside of spot duty and spring scrimmages, no one really knows how he is in game situations.
-If Ralph Bolden had never gotten re-injured, and ATM hadn't transferred, I might not have RBs as a reason for concern...but both things happened, and Purdue's offensive backfield is once-again wrought with question marks.
Bolden says he's feeling great, but full contact is much different from limited contact, drills and workouts...but everyone's rooting for him to do big things. Behind Bolden, JuCo transfer, Shavers will most-definitely see action. After the top of the depth chart, the bigger backs; Pegram, Crank and Jackson might carry the ball a few times in short yardage situations. But I don't foresee a way that Edison and Ross will be able to avoid playing out of the backfield, at least every now and then.
-Defensively, Purdue loses the leading tackle-for-loss player for the past few seasons and a guaranteed double or triple with Ryan Kerrigan's departure. Maci, Mebane and the oft-injured speed rusher, Gooden will try to fill that vacuum on passing downs, and the under-experienced, but talented Frazier, Russell and even Kitchens will look to stop the run on the edges.
If Purdue had a monster opposite him and a young DE with a few starts under his belt to try to replace Kerrigan, we'd be concerned anyway...but a young guy who didn't play a ton and a guy who's struggled to reach his full potential makes us pretty nervous...even with the beef in the middle. This is kind of uncharted territory for us as fans, at least in the last 15-20 years as the Den of Defensive Ends has almost become an entity that doesn't rebuild, but reloads. I'm not too sure if I see an NFL-caliber DE in this corps...but there is potential in the group, just someone has to emerge in a hurry. The DBs should help those guys get up to speed.
-The schedule isn't the worst one we've ever seen...but there's plenty on the docket to make us take notice. First off, and perhaps surprisingly to some, Rice has ex-UM RB Sam McGuffie returning after leading them in rushing and receiving...plus they return most of the rest of their offense. If Purdue's defense can't stop the stuff underneath, one of the games that many thought would be an automatic win could end much differently. Notre Dame will be improved as they have experienced blue-chippers back on both sides of the ball and a coach that knows how to win. After UND, the B1G schedule is stout as usual...and I have a hard time finding four wins in the group...even with a couple of the powers suffering key losses at important positions.
Up next, we'll talk about the aspects of Purdue's 2011 team that have us nearly soiling ourselves.
Tomorrow looks pretty perfect in God's country- Near-70, sunny and it's Homecoming Saturday. Mrs. Boilerdowd, LBD and MBD will all be with me on campus for the contest...but we still have some question marks about tickets (we're trying to get three on the cheap as the 9 month old hasn't been to a game yet...not sure how she'll do). Regardless, can't wait until tomorrow as a wounded Goldy gets backed into the corner that is Ross-Ade stadium.
Tim says:
The fact that this Purdue team is favored by 6 over the Gophers speaks worlds about the current state of Minnesota football.
Henry needs to figure out how to pass the ball. If he has less than 100 yards passing, Purdue is going to have a hard time scoring, let alone, winning this one. Minnesota isn't lighting the college football world on fire either as this game has the 72nd ranked offense and the 95th. It doesn't even matter which is which, they're both bad. Purdue has an edge on the defensive side of things though, so they should be able to slow down Goldy long enough to allow the offense to eek out some points.
10 years ago this game would've been 60-58. Tomorrow...
Purdue 24 Minnesota 20
J says:
This week, its my turn to be short. Zing!
Purdue must win this game in order to keep bowl hopes alive. They're playing in a getup they are 0-1 all time in. It's homecoming. Minnesota is terrible. 2-0 in conference is within grasp. All of this, sadly, makes me think they'll find a way to screw up.
That said, I can't pick them to lose to Minny.
Purdue 23 Minnesota 21
boilerdowd says:
What a position to be in. A couple weeks ago, Purdue was left for dead by almost everybody...now, they get to play a team that some think could have an historically-bad conference season.
My wife asked the question if Minnesota wouldn't simply stack the defense and stop Purdue's run. Well, I think they'll try to...and I think they'll fail. This is a bad Minnesota team...and their strength is running between the tackles...something Purdue's front stops pretty well (as long as the back doesn't start bouncing outside). Even with (typically) ginormous lineman, Minny is only averaging 3.8 yds/carry.
Noteworthy stats: Minnesota is 8th in rush offense, 11th in rush defense, 11th in scoring defense...sure, Purdue's no world beater...but I think Purdue will get better in the coming weeks...Minny won't.
I really like White Lightning's presence as a QB- he looks poised and seems to have command of the field. I don't like Henry's accuracy a whole bunch at this point, but I do think last week's sub-100 yard game isn't going to be the norm. I look for the receivers to catch the ball more-consistently or to see RBs catching the ball in the flat and TEs to be dragging underneath for cheap stuff.
If not, perhaps we'll see the wing-T in a week or two. I don't give a damn, honestly...as long as they win.
It's always fun to look back at preseason predictions and see how silly (or accurate, if you're us) they look. Of course, when predictions are made prior to the start of summer, it's really kind of odd.... there is so much to be determined for each team before Labor Day weekend, and most teams have 90-ish days to go before they launch their 2010 seasons.
For those who like seeing this sort of thing in a more readable fashion, SpartyMSU puts it into handy-dandy chart form. (Also of note: this is the first time reading SpartyMSU is less likely to give you a headache than an alternative.)
Chart courtesy of SpartyMSU
I find it interesting to note that Michigan is expected to finish significantly ahead of Purdue by all of these (Athlon, Kickoff College Football Preview, Phil Steele and Lindy's) except for the Sporting News, who has Purdue finishing fifth in the conference (everyone else has them at 8th or 9th).
If you're wondering when guys who write about a college football team get asked to weigh in with their input on the upcoming season, the answer appears to be... May.
We were asked by the fledgling site College Football Zealots to answer some questions about Purdue football. We obliged because we're cool like that. And we were tired of making fun of each other for watching baseball and IRL.
We probably should have done this post months ago, but we had plenty of other content to keep us busy then...plus since when do we do anything around here on any sort of schedule?
I thought it might be fun to look back at our Big Ten football predictions from last year and see how we did. I think college football is a lot easier to predict, but that could just be because I follow it so closely. Oh, and the NBA is easy to figure out, too, since it's rigged.
Anyway, here's what our off-the-cuff, half-assed analysis shook out last year and how we did.
Indiana -- BS Prediction: 3-9. Actual: 4-8.
One game off on the Hoosiers, who got off to their customary 3-0 start before stabbing their fans in the heart by dropping 7 of 8 to wrap things up.
Michigan -- BS Prediction: 5-7. Actual: 5-7.
We're so S-M-R-T! Michigan actually surprised a lot of people by starting 4-0, including a win over powerhouse (and ranked) Notre Dame, culminating with the maize and blue being ranked. Then they lost every legit game left on their schedule, only winning over Delaware State, who I think MGoBlog referred to as "Baby Seal U."
Illinois -- BS Prediction: 6-6. Actual: 3-9.
We were overly optimistic, it turns out, on the Illini, but they were just two years off a Rose Bowl season. We did say the "worst case" was 3-9, but expecting an experienced team to finish worse than the 6-6 we predicted was hard to envision, even for negative guys like us.
Iowa -- BS Prediction: 8-4. Actual: 10-2.
We weren't big believers in Stanzi, but we definitely knew Iowa was good. We missed the boat on just how good, though. But not by a lot.
Michigan State -- BS Prediction: 10-2. Actual: 6-6.
No, here's where we missed by a lot. For some reason, I fell in love with MSU football last year. Here's what I wrote:
MSU is going to be good. Really good. Barring John L. Smith flashbacks, this program is headed in the right direction. Toughest (and only significantly tough) game on the schedule is PSU, at home.
Man, I'm an idiot.
Minnesota -- BS Prediction: 4-8. Actual: 6-6.
Another one we missed on, but again, not by a whole lot. Minnesota is not very good and we stand by our assertion that they weren't very good last year, either. Purdue never should have lost to them, but that's the kind of thing Purdue football did in 2009.
Northwestern -- BS Prediction: 8-4. Actual: 8-4.
Right on the money again. Northwestern was so predictable from the very start, it was frightening. Here's what I said:
They'll win the games they should and they'll lose the games they should. Believe me, we know this kind of team when we see one. It's a Tiller Special, circa 2005-2008.
And were they ever, right up to their spectacularly entertaining -- yet futile -- bowl game effort.
Ohio State -- BS Prediction: 10-2. Actual: 10-2.
MAN, I'm tired of being right! OSU wasn't all that hard to predict, after all, since they seem to always come within a win or two of a truly epic season (ooh, burn!). And we all know where 50% of their losses (and 100% of their Big Ten losses) came from.
Penn State -- BS Prediction: 10-2. Actual: 10-2.
Penn State's another of those fairly easy-to-predict programs. They're going to win the games they should, they're going to take some tough ones, and they're going to find a way to agonize their fan base by dropping a close one or two. But as long as JoPa keeps winning, they'll let the old man "coach" there until he dies on the field.
Wisconsin -- BS Prediction: 8-4. Actual: 9-3.
Okay, so we missed by one game.
Boilermakers -- BS Prediction: 4-8. Actual: 5-7.
The official BS prediction going into the season was 4-8, and after the 1-5 start, that was beginning to look like an optimistic guess. But the boys made good on their season from that point forward and did us proud.
So, for those keeping score, that's four dead on and three within one game of being dead on. And only Michigan State as completely, nonsensically, way off.
Not bad, and definitely better than the fools on ESPN like Mark May.
No kidding, right? Unless you live under a rock (okay, or if you're not an avid Purdue follower), you know that there are Boilermakers on every team left in the NFL's final four. So while we do sometimes talk NFL around here, we've been doing less of it lately -- however, over the next couple weeks, I think you'll be hearing a little more about it. Let's look at the combatants and the games this weekend. Because, hey, everyone else is.
New Orleans Saints versus Minnesota Vikings
One of Purdue's proudest sons is one win away from the Super Bowl for the second time in his four seasons with New Orleans. People forget that in Mr. Handsome's first year with the team, in 2006, they lost the championship game to the Bears. This was the year after they won only 3 games while playing their entire season away from New Orleans following Katrina. I remember this vividly because Drew had just gone to New Orleans and that August I was in Las Vegas and I put down a bet on the Saints to be NFC champs -- at 35-1. I was a believer in Drew. And I remember not telling anyone I had done that until they were eliminated, so as not to jinx it. Alas, the sucko Bears managed to Rex Grossman their way into the opportunity to get waxed by the Colts.
I'll be pontificating/hero-worshipping Drew a little more in a separate post later today, but for now let's get to this game.
I'm worried, and I'm not afraid to admit it. The Saints biggest weakness has been their run defense. And what is one of the Vikings strength? Of course, Adrian Peterson who, make no mistake, is an animal. I love this guy and let's all just agree that he's the reason Brett Favre has had an admittedly terrific season. Brett, to his credit, bought into the Vikings plan to run the hell out of Peterson until other teams committed to stopping him -- and then they'd punch 'em in the throat with a Brett Favre pass. This of course only works if Favre avoids his trademark crippling interceptions (all-time leader in INTs, by the way, though I don't recall them stopping the game for any ceremonies for that), which has done an amazing job of. This is Favre's lowest interception season ever -- EVER. And he still quietly threw for 4,200 yards. So as much as we collectively dislike this disingenuous hillbilly, he's playing possibly the best football he's ever played -- or at least his best in ten-plus years.
Both sides have pretty decent defenses, but certainly their defenses are not what the teams are known for. On the Minnesota side is our old friend Ray Edwards, who terrorized Tony Romo, much to my delight. Seriously, is there anything better than seeing the Cowboys lose? Jerry Jones deserves nothing. He had one of the best coaches in the game, but his ego forced him to hire a series of bozos (not including Parcells, who eventually had enough on his own) and make himself the GM. Yes, a rich doofus owns the team and makes himself the GM. Even Mark Cuban's not that arrogant. But I digress.
Ray Edwards has blossomed into a hell of a defensive player. He's actually missed some practice time this week due to injury and while I never like to see a Boiler down, I'm okay if he doesn't make it out there to pressure Drew.
The Saints offense, as we've seen over and over this year, is explosive. And they're playing in one of the few home venues that truly can be considered a home-field advantage. I've seen games in the Superdome and it's a pretty great experience -- I can only imagine how deafening it is in the playoffs. And deafening is when opponents make mistakes, run the wrong route, etc. Here's hoping.
Alright, let's get something straight -- the Jets aren't even in the playoffs if the Colts and Bengals don't lay down for them the last two weeks of the season. Sure, they've played very well and very opportunistically in the playoffs, but they shouldn't even be here. And let's make mistake -- no matter how much the Jets push their "Are they trying now?" motivation tactic (as they did against Cinci), the Colts are just as pissed off about that previous matchup. The Colts players were not pleased with the decision to lay down -- and that's what you expect out of competitors. I expect the Colts to want to win, and win big, showing everyone that they are indeed better than the Jets when they try for four quarters. Given that, I'm thinking Peyton Manning may get more snaps than Curtis Painter in the second half this time around. Going out on a limb here.
As for the Jets, I don't want to completely minimize them. They have a coach who has convinced them to truly believe and they have. Reportedly, at a team meeting on January 5, Rex Ryan mapped out their daily obligations, meetings, practices, etc., all the way through the Tuesday after the Super Bowl. On that day, the board said "PARADE." I give the fat man credit -- he's pushing all the right buttons.
And who has had some of the most critical catches for the Jetties? None other than Dustin Keller, former monster Boilermaker. Have you ever noticed how whenever they need a critical catch, Keller makes it? Can you remember any drops, legitimate or otherwise? And finally, is it me, or is Keller already one of the best YAC tight ends in the NFL? The guy turns short crossing patterns into 50 yard gains. I love the guy and wish he was on my team.
BUT.... let's look closer at the Jets success. Sure, the Jets have the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL. But that's skewed, because they also have an interception factory in Mark Sanchez. When you have a guy you don't trust to throw the ball, you run it incessantly and hope your defense makes some plays. Many teams have ridden this formula to success, usually with shoddy quarterbacks. And it's worked for the Jets because of the teams the Jets have played.
The Bengals looked listless and the Jets were ahead most of the day -- perfect formula for them. And the Chargers? Well, is anyone surprised the Chargers choked early again? I mean, when can we start piling on them as chokers and underachievers. I'm really tired of hearing about how "this is the year" for the Chargers. They've been good for essentially the entire LaDainian Tomlinson Era and, yet, they almost always seem to fall short of expectations. Cool, calm Phil Rivers leads them to one TD in the first half and winds up throwing a Farvian crippling interception that the Jets returned to the SD 16 yard line.... to a place where even Sanchez couldn't help but score. Suddenly, the pressure was on SD and the Jets ground them down. My point? I'm not impressed with the two teams the Jets beat. How they beat them? Yes, I'm impressed with that. But I don't think the Colts are like either of those teams. Coffee is for closers. The Colts are closers.
