Herd Overcome By Boilers' Bush

If you read our predicto post yesterday, you saw that we had somewhat divergent opinions on how things would go down in Ross-Ade today. Well, if it was possible for us both to be right, this was the game, as the Boilers won a shootout with Marshall, 51-41.

It was, once again for the Boilers, a tale of wildly different halves. This has been something that has been an issue during the Danny Hope era and it continued today. The Boilers really could not have looked better in the first half, putting together sustained, creatively called drives and, in the second quarter, some stellar defensive play.

Marshall's hotshot soph QB Rakeem Cato looked decidedly like an underclassman, as he threw three picks, including back-to-back pick-6s to Ricardo Allen and Josh Johnson. Allen's made him the Purdue record-holder with four pick-6s. Johnson's looked as though he'd been in the Marshall huddle, as he appeared to break on the ball before Cato even released it, catching it in stride and sprinting 76 yards the other way. As halftime arrived, it was 42-14 Boilermakers. My co-editor looked wise.

And then the Boilermakers had their customary, celebratory raviolis in the locker room, followed by turkey legs and mashed potatoes. Or at least that's what I assume they did, as they came out for the third quarter flatter than my 8th-grade girlfriend. The Herd had a TD drive and then blocked a punt and returned it for a TD. Suddenly, it was 42-28 and was a ballgame. The Boilers managed a FG at the end of the quarter and then, thankfully, some old friends came to the rescue.

After Coaches Keady and Tiller led the crowd in B-dowd's favorite tradition, Shout, the Boilers began to show signs of life again. Despite being outscored 27-9 in the second half, the Boilers did salt the game away late. Which brings me to this... let's look at the positives:

The Boilers built a huge lead by playing solid, creative offense, executing extremely well...as well as opportunistic, hard-nosed defense. TWO interception returns for TDs coupled with a blocked FG by Kawaan Short and an additional INT and fumble recovery says that this defense actually did come to play. Don't be overly concerned with the yardage Marshall put up -- for starters, they're one of the most prolific offenses in the country. For another, they were down four touchdowns in the second quarter, so they needed to be on the open attack for the majority of the game.

Also on the positive side was that the Boilers put a game away in a manner and at a time when good teams do just that. They'd allowed their opponent to chip away and get back into the game, as the score was 45-35 with 12 minutes to go in the fourth. Still a two-score game, but everyone was clearly getting nervous among Boilermaker supporters. Caleb TerBush came out and calmly led the Boilers on a six-minute, 13 play, 78 yard touchdown drive. That made it 51-35 with just 6:38 to go. And as B-dowd texted to me, they just did what good teams do .That is, close the door.

Another positive for me today was the play of Caleb TerBush. Robert Marve warmed up but wound up not dressing for the game. Maybe that played into it -- hard to know -- as Caleb played with a confidence and, dare I say, swagger that I've never seen from him. He looked sure of himself, he looked like a leader and he hit his targets. After a sizzling first half, he cooled off a bit, but still wound up going 27/37 for 294 yards and four TD passes, three of them to Gary Bush. For the record, those are career bests for Caleb in completions, attempts, yards (he'd only ever been over 200 yards once before, with 220 in the opener last year vs. Middle Tennessee St.) and touchdown passes (doubling his previous best of two, done three times). Understand, folks, this was a career game for Caleb TerBush and might well have been his coming out party, as they say.

Yes, we should temper excitement about the offensive output by reminding ourselves that Marshall's defense is positively atrocious. However, that said, you still have to make the plays, you still have to make the throws, and you still have to hold onto the football. The Boilers did that today and did it well.

I know a lot of people want to get Gibboney's head on the pike whenever something happens on special teams that's bad, but I don't put the punt block no the coaching. It looked to me like Marshall just sold out to bring the house and block it. I think that could happen more often than it does, but teams don't always do it because it leaves their returner unprotected if the punt is made. If you want to argue that Gibboney and company should have anticipated Marshall coming after it like that since they were losing, well, that's a legitimate point. I just think it's worth pointing out that Cody Webster has been a marksman on punts this year, dropping punt after punt deep in opposing territory, and nobody has given Gibboney credit for that.

Other guys had terrific games besides TerBush, too. Obviously, Gary Bush was a touchdown machine, hauling in three of them among his seven receptions for 83 yards. OJ Ross had a career-high nine catches, for 69 yards and Antavian Edison continued his strong play with six receptions for 99 yards and another TD. Edison now has a catch in 25 straight games and TDs in every game this season.

So what do we take from this game? The Boilers cleared 50 points for the second straight week, something they only did once last year and zero times against FBS level foes. Heck, they only put up over 40 twice all last year -- they've done it three times already this year. The Boilers also already have more 40+ yard plays this season than they had all of 2011. These are good signs and suggest that the offense is truly rounding into form.

I could sit here and try to tell you that you shouldn't get too excited since those offensive outbursts have come against inferior, non-conference foes. But hey, that's what the non-conference is for, right? And previous Danny Hope teams didn't pound non-conference opponents they way we wanted them to. So given what's been put in front of them, the Boilers have done exactly what we've all asked of them. That's a very good thing, not to mention refreshing.

The Boilers have done what we've all asked of them so far and have taken care of the team's they're supposed to take care of. Now they move into conference play against a suddenly vulnerable-looking Michigan team, followed by Wisconsin, both at Ross-Ade. Could this be the most critical start of a Big Ten football season for Purdue in more than a decade? I think so. A lot rides on these next couple of games. If the Boilers can get through their first three conference games 2-1, you are hereby allowed to begin expecting to win the division. If they fall on their faces, you're entitled to refer to them as the "same old Purdue."

First things first, though. Next up are the Wolverines at home next Saturday, with a gametime of 4 PM. So you've got plenty of time to tailgate, enjoy yourself, soak up the college football atmosphere, and then move inside Ross-Ade for a game that matters a whole lot. There will be lights, there will be a buzz and let's hope there will be a lot of Purdue fans.

The train is a-comin'. Choo-choo, muthas.

Purdue-Marshall Predicto -- Take Care of Non-Con Bidness Edition

It's time to thin the Herd, boys and girls.

This weekend our Boilers are back in action, again at home, against the Thundering Herd of Marshall. Marshall is 2-2 and has been involved in a lot of points being scored, both for and against.

What do your handsome hosts think will transpire over the weekend? Let's get right to it, shall we?

(Oh, and this pic came up during my Google search for images for this post. Google is so wise.)


J says:

Maybe I've just had too much time to talk myself into worrying, but I've been concerned about this specific game since I first took a look at the schedule. Sure, there's no Chad Pennington or Randy Moss walking through the tunnel (well, it's Ross-Ade, so I guess walking through that...opening), but Marshall can still put some points on the board, as they say.

I know many have talked themselves into the exciting potential of this team in 2012. And that's great. However, as we've recounted before, Danny Hope teams absolutely always, without exception, find at least one non-conference game to lose that shouldn't even be close. Being at home is no exception. For those who have forgotten, in 2011 it was at Rice (and almost at home vs Middle Tennessee). In 2010, it was home to Toledo (and it wasn't even close). In 2009 it was home to Northern Illinois. All foes who should have been overmatched and were certainly less talented. But Purdue has shown in recent years a tendency to come out for second halves sleepy or unfocused... or sometimes come out for entire games in that state. Doesn't a game following a bye week right before potentially huge Big Ten matchups seem like an opportunity for such sluggishness?

Marshall absolutely fits the mold to continue that trend. There's no way the Herd should be -- or are -- as talented as Purdue. However, Marshall can throw the ball as well as run the ball. Sure, the D-line will likely bottle up the run and will (or should) win the battles in the trenches. But if Sophomore QB Rakeem Cato continues what he's done so far, I have concerns. Cato has thrown for almost 1500 yards in four games, including two games over 400 yards. Sure, sure, I know they were losing big to West Virginia and their Rice game went OT. So what? He's also completed over 70% of his passes, so the guy is accurate. And you know what else? Aside from Josh Johnson, I haven't been particularly impressed by Purdue's secondary this year. The secondary was supposed to be another strength, something that along with the line would help counter the weakness over the middle at linebacker. But if a team like Marshall is able to pick apart Purdue both over the middle and longer down the field... I become more jumpy.

Another gut instinct might be to look at Marshall's last game and note that they needed overtime to defeat Rice. I know I had that knee-jerk reaction, but then I remembered that Purdue couldn't accomplish that feat in 2011. We know the transitive property isn't foolproof -- or even worthwhile, most of the time -- but it's just one more thing tossed into my cauldron of doubt.

Other things that nibble away at my good feelings about Purdue's strong start are that they are still among the worst in the nation at turning the ball over (with eight giveaways so far three games for a cool 2.67 TOs per game). I don't know about you, but when I read that statistic, I was surprised. We heard a lot about that in previous years, but not as much this year... mainly because Purdue has been winning and has a good feeling of momentum. But if you turn the ball over five times against EKU (which they did), you can get away with it. If they turn it over even close to that number vs Marshall, they will lose.

Okay, so despite all that hand-wringing, let me say that I believe in these guys. I like the makeup of this team and these players a lot. I think their focus, drive and determination is better than we've seen from Purdue in a while. I actually do think that despite not being a good game coach, Coach Hope is making some good progress on the "culture" and getting guys to buy in completely. He deserves praise for that. And I have faith in these guys carrying out their assignments and playing the game well. They haven't been prone to terrible penalties and the special teams play has not hampered Purdue. These are all steps -- big steps -- in the right direction.

I agree with the majority of Purdue fans that Purdue should win this game. Maybe not with as little trouble as some are thinking, but I agree that Marshall should not be able to come into Ross-Ade and take a game away from the 2012 Boilermakers.

However, I lack faith in the coaching staff. And, as noted above, I've read this script before. Until Danny Hope and company prove to me that they won't lose one of these games, I'm going to have a hard time having blanket confidence. So while I don't think they have any excuse to lose, they also didn't have excuses against Rice, Northern Illinois and Toledo. This one goes in the "please prove me wrong, boys" category.

Marshall 35
Purdue 31

Boilerdowd says:

Before I got to see this team play, before I knew about Marshall's fast-paced offense, I didn't feel too bad about this game.

But now that I have as much info as possible, I still feel good about this one.

Danny Hope has always been a player's coach...but has never been an Xs and Os guru. He seems to motivate players, and point them in the right direction. The problem the last few years has been that his teams have really needed direction during games...and have been physically unable to simply overpower other teams. It's different this year. Purdue's front four is as good, if not better, than we thought they'd be. Russell's injury two weeks ago changes things if there's a carry-over into this game, but it sounds like he's ready to go...so the defense will be defined by the front's ability to put pressure on the QB and stop Marshall's running game. As they cause Marshall's pocket to collapse, everyone behind them will look better. Plus, Allen should be healthier, so I think both he and Johnson will be more than just a speed bump for Marshall's O.

On the other side of the ball, Marshall struggles mightily to stop the run... and has given up long runs... that's a giant "uh-oh" for the Herd. Shavers will pound 'em and Mostert might provide the first big play out of the backfield with the home run. If TerBush can at least play like he did last year at the end of the season, Purdue wins going away...if he continues to struggle making easy throws, I'd love to see Henry behind center; at the very minimum, he can run the hurry-up with skill.

A nearly perfect weather day will help produce smiley-happy faces for the Boilermaker faithful tomorrow as Hope strives to make Purdue fans forget about previous pre-con woes...Purdue improves to 3-1; but a sluggish start could make this one closer than it should be.

Purdue 35
Marshall 24

Purdue vs Marshall: Stomping the Herd

A thundering herd!

Purdue is starting to get votes in the AP poll. Yes, you may or may not have noticed Purdue at the bottom of the AP Top 25 getting a solid five votes. It was obviously spurred by the great performance against "God's Team" but regardless it's exciting. The Boilers have a chance of being ranked under Danny Hope but the Thundering Herd are going to try to nix that.

Coming off of a double overtime thriller, Marshall is going to have some momentum. In that game their high flying offense passed for 259 yards and rushed for 334. They boast the nation's best passing offense and look to dismantle the praised defensive line of the Boilermakers.

I'm concerned about this game. Their rushing attack is good and Purdue's run defense looked subpar in the game against EMU, allowing 169 rush yards. If the Boilers can put together a rush defense similar to that at Notre Dame, it should be no problem.

One has to believe that the Herd is going to key on the running game and try to exploit Purdue's weakness in the linebacker core.

It's going to be key that the Boilermakers can stop the run, which will eliminate the play action which could prove vital for the secondary.

I think it's going to be next to impossible to completely stop Marshall's offense, but containing them is something that is feasible.

Offensively this is going to be a game where the Boilermakers can flex their muscles. Marshall's defense has been lackluster this season, on average allowing 509 yards of total offense per game.

Their goal is to outscore their opponent rather than stop them defensively. If Purdue can limit turnovers, they are looking at a great day offensively. With Marshall giving up around 43 points per game this is an opportunity to showcase the firepower of the offense. Look for TerBush to have a big game this week.

Marshall has a few players to look out for come Saturday. Keep an eye on Rakeem Cato who has thrown for almost 1500 yards this season, averaging 370 per game while passing for 10 touchdowns on the year.

Another star of the Herd is Steward Butler. The freshman is a speedy back that is very comparable to Danny Anthrop. The Herd will run numerous backs in this game most of which have a big play ability. It's going to be important to contain them at the line of scrimmage. Combined, they have 10 touchdowns allowing Marshall to have a balanced attack that is fresh, causing lots of issues for opposing defenders. Their ability to substitute allows each back to compliment one another creating one of the best backfields in football.

The key to this game is going to be the defense containing the Herd offense, as well as the offense putting up some great numbers. I have trouble believing that fewer than four offensive touchdowns is going to win this game.

I look for it to be a great shoot-out but Purdue's defense is going to set them apart and give the Boilers the edge in this one.