Friday, October 19, 2012

Boilermakers-Buckeyes Predicto: The How Long Will You Watch Edition

Flexing their muscles
After two weeks of some of the most dreadful football we've seen Purdue put forth in the Danny Hope era, the Boilers now travel to scenic, strip-clubby Columbus, Ohio to face the Ohio State Buckeyes.

The Boilers and Buckeyes have defied logic and over the course of the past 12+ years have engaged in some pretty intense games, with more Boiler victories than they probably are entitled to. In fact, I might argue that this rivalry is a dark horse for one of the best in the conference over that span.

However, the wins for the Boilers in Columbus have just not happened. Yes, there have been some good showings there, but there have also been some painful ones. Put all this into the hopper and what comes out? Glad you asked.

Why not?
J sez:

I know there are people out there trying to buck themselves up by recalling the 1-5 Boilermakers in 2009 who beat a top ten Buckeye team. And, sure, we will agree that nobody thought the Boilers had a shot in that one. I might even wonder how much of the locker room thought it was possible. But they came out and Ryan Kerrigan put the Boilers on his back and made it happen. Is there a guy on this roster who is a no-brainer NFLer who might just go bananas this weekend? I don't know.

This is a game that most of us -- even the optimists -- felt was the proverbial "Sharpie Game" on the schedule. Those with dreams of a Purdue appearance in the Big Ten title game even wrote this one off as, well, let's just win against Michigan and Wisconsin. So if you're not feeling good about this one when you think you have a good team....and then you learn you might not have a good team....where does that leave you?

The Danny Hope calling card, of course, has often been to lower everyone's expectations and then, just when they've given up, win a game against all odds. The thing is, though, you can't reliably expect that to happen. If it happens on this day, though, it will surely be his best magic trick yet.

The Boilermakers are downtrodden, they've been crushed at home in back to back weeks and how have to face the best team of the three on the road. Sure, I also know IU put up 49 on the Bucks, but -- and I hate to be the bearer of bad news -- IU's offense is far more potent than Purdue's right now.

This game has the makings of one of those that nobody watches into the third quarter. The only thing standing in the way of the result I'm predicting here is pride.

O$U 52
Boilers 13

Boilerdowd sez:

I typically plan my Saturdays in the fall around when Purdue's kicking off...as of now, I'm not even sure what time that happens.  What I do know, is this one kinda makes me sick at my stomach.

You've got an O$U team that has scored at will the last few weeks and seems to be getting better (at least offensively) as they get to know their new boss.

On the other hand, you've got a Purdue defense that can't stop anyone in any aspect of the game, and an offense that just put up yardage (with the exception of one play) that's comprable to that of a Pop Warner team.  My apologies to all Pop Warner coaches reading this.

My blind and foolish optimism is gone.  I hope the players still have some belief in their ability to play competitively in a game versus a team above mid-major quality.  As Colvin said to many of them last week, only they can change their current situation.  I'd love to see them change it.

an Ohio University 65
Purdue 17

13 comments:

COD said...

High 60s and sunny here tomorrow. I think I'm going to make up for standing in a cold rain in West Lafayette last weekend (for the first half anyway) by going out and doing something fun in the nice weather tomorrow. There is nothing fun about watching Purdue football right now.

Boilergal said...

Woodshed... again. 45-13

Hopefully, I follow through with my vow not to watch the game tomorrow- will be time better spent.

CaryNW87 said...

O$U 51
PURDUE 6

Plang said...

Okay, here's what you do:
Take all that money you have lost betting on Purdue over the last two weeks - take all that money - and double it! Then put it down on Purdue to win this weekend. What's the line? 14, 15 points? Not good enough! You take all the money and you bet it against the spread. Our Boilers are due, I tell ya! Hell, I'm already spending my winnings!

Ruddy&Grey - 9
Black&Gold - 6


The Accidental Expat said...

Seriously, I wonder how many games we've played in the last 5-10 years when the opposing team is just coming off an embarrassing loss or a close win that really should have been a blowout. Not to take anything away from IU (who played a very well-executed game plan-- Purdue coaches, take note) but OSU phoned it in. Now Meyer's been riding these guys all week, plus they probably would like to get a little revenge for last year's loss to boot.

Score: whatever Urban wants it to be.

++++

Off topic, but it needs to be said: I feel for the players who CHOSE to come to Purdue to play football and get a quality education-- increasingly over better schools and football programs. Jeers to the coaching staff who were HIRED to win football games, yet are all about rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic lately.

zlionsfan said...

Lloyd Carr and Jim Tressel approached a lot of games the same way: they assumed they had a significant talent advantage (usually correctly), but being risk-averse coaches, as soon as they had a reasonable lead, say two touchdowns, they'd throttle down their offenses and hope to shorten the game by taking more time off the clock and limiting the number of remaining possessions.

As with most risk-averse strategies, it was basically the opposite of what they should have done in those situations. When you're the underdog, that's when you try to shorten the game. When you're the (heavy) favorite, you want more possessions, because that'll give you more opportunities to take advantage of the edge you have on your opponent.

Both coaches came under fire, repeatedly, for giving away games to inferior opponents this way. As it happens, Purdue was one of those opponents on more than one occasion. While Purdue does deserve credit for the way they approached and played those games, I think it's also fair to say that they took advantage of a weakness on the other sideline.

Urban Meyer, unfortunately, does not approach games that way ... and if he had, any chances of that being repeated were blown up by Indiana last week. I suspect the bottom of the Big Ten is more competitive than the bottom of the SEC (and certainly the bottom of the Mountain West), so perhaps it caught him by surprise once. I doubt it will happen again.

Ohio State 61
Purdue 10

Of course the silver lining in this dark cloud is that there's always a chance that OSU will have to vacate this win down the road.

56e05948-09a9-11e1-8119-000bcdca4d7a said...

I'm optimistic (a crown and coke will do that) 31-29 Hopeism wins...so I've bet the Purdue +18 and the UNDER 62 ( for entertainment purposes only). If not, I always have the "That's all right, that's ok, you're going to pump our gas someday" cheer ala 'Bring It On" that I can shout tomorrow. Actually, I request this clip be posted if it doesn't work out for Purdue

ATL_Boilers said...

I talked to my aO$U buddy (slowly, of course) this week and he was talking about holes in the defense and an inefficient offense... To have their problems, right?

O$U: add 50 to whatever the Boilers score
Boilers: riding Nord's arrogance

Tweek said...

If I wake up in time for it, it'll be an accident (I live on the West Coast):

OSU: 52, PU 24

BoilerWhat said...

41-7

Bleep Gary Nord

zlionsfan said...

Credit where credit is due - Nord didn't come out with a stupid run up the middle. If you'd told me that I'd be hearing Hail Purdue in the first 15 seconds in the Shoe, I'd still be laughing at you.

I wasn't watching the kick closely, so I don't know whether it was a K problem or an OL problem, but man ... 7-0 would have been nice. (At least it wasn't 6-2.)

zlionsfan said...

If Purdue had a better offensive coordinator and a better quarterback, OSU would be in a world of hurt right now.

I think it was Eleven Warriors that highlighted OSU's problems against Indiana: the Hoosiers ran essentially the same formation over and over against the Buckeyes' cover-4, and OSU couldn't stop it. Trips to one side, double slants, RB runs a swing pattern. It worked very well with that offense.

Early in the first quarter, Purdue gave OSU the same look ... but TerBush simply can't make those throws. Nord really needs to put him in situations where he can succeed, and that's just not happening. Fewer long passes across the field, more passes upfield.

zlionsfan said...

This is much better. Same kind of thing: the bubble and other outside WR screens are difficult to defend with that defense, particularly with backup LBs, and Nord is going right after OSU with them. Good job.