Boilermetrics: Power in the Big Ten

I'm back – I know it probably seemed like I was waiting for the Lions to win another game before I posted again, but instead it was just that work stuff. I prefer spending more time talking Purdue sports with the good folks here, but you know how that goes.

This is ENIAC, the first "computer". It correctly picked
CCNY to win both the NCAA and NIT in 1950,
but finished third in the office pool behind that tall
secretary who works for Mr. So-and-so and the guy who
picks up the punch cards and loads them for you.

Anyway, this is the first in an occasional series that I may have hinted at before: a more in-depth look at topics the other guys have covered (and a couple they may not), with a bit more emphasis on numbers. The title of the series comes from sabermetrics, baseball analysis through statistics. (Even though the term comes from baseball, it's loosely applied to similar analysis in other sports.)

A few things to keep in mind as you read this and future articles:

• Analysis in sports is relatively new and thus pretty rough in places, especially outside baseball. There will occasionally be things I refer to that will have changed recently or will change in the near future, as the people who create those models tweak them to better fit what they're studying. 
• Analysis is just another tool to help you understand what you're seeing. It's intended to complement rather than to replace observation. If the numbers tell you one thing and your eyes tell you something really different, the truth is likely in the middle somewhere.
• Along those lines, there's a lot that advanced statistics can't yet tell us about sports that aren't baseball. When we refer to an individual player's advanced stats, it's really shorthand for "that player's stats within his role on Purdue's team". We're a long way from being able to separate the contributions of a player from the effects of playing in the offense his team runs.

All right, let's get started. Open your textbooks to Chapter 1 ... the Big Ten.

For a few years now, people here and elsewhere have talked about the strength of the Big Ten in basketball and how it's the best conference in the country. (Well, the folks at EsPN mention the ACC a bit, but most people know the truth.) This year, so far, it's not even close. If you go over to kenpom.com – and I highly suggest you do, because his site has a ton of useful stats even for free, and for $20, you get a year's access to all of the cool stuff, some of which I'll be quoting – you'll see the Big Ten in first place by a mile, with the Big East chugging away in second and the Duke Conference a distant third. (To put it in perspective, the mean Big Ten team would be 33rd in the country; the Big East mean, 50th; the ACC mean, 63rd, and that would drop even further once Maryland walks this way. Of course, so would the Big Ten's mean ...)

Here's Ashley Russell to introduce
... what was I saying?

Of course the Big Ten is also a little top-heavy (woo!). Through Thursday's games, Michigan State was ranked 18th in the country by kenpom ... and was 6th in the Big Ten. Wisconsin sits at #11 and is a mere 5th in the conference. So keep that in mind as we go back through boilerdowd's power rankings: 6th here isn't anything at all like 6th in, say, the Pac-12. (#69 California.)

For each team, I'll list their ratings by boilerdowd, kenpom, Sagarin, Massey, and the good old RPI that EsPN duplicates (which, naturally, is behind a firewall – subscribers only). I'll then look at which of the Four Factors are their strengths and which are their weaknesses, and mention what, if anything, might have changed during conference play.

Playing for a #1 seed
1. Wisconsin (kenpom 11; Sagarin 15; Massey 23; RPI 41)The good: Avoiding turnovers. Their turnover percentage is 14.2%, best in Division I. (#2 is Michigan at 15.1%.) Combine that with their glacial offense, and you get standard Vince McMahon basketball: crush the life out of the ball, then dare you to hit the one shot they're going to give you.
The bad: Getting to the line. They average 30.3 FTA for every 100 FGA, 293rd in DI. This is good news if, say, you have foul-prone post players. Wisconsin is not going to get them on the bench early.
The B1G: They're pretty darn good so far. Winning in that place in Bloomington is no mean feat even when Indiana is down, and they're not down this year.
Non-con notes: Best win was 77-70 over #66 Arkansas at a neutral site; worst loss was 50-60 at #41 Marquette.

2. Michigan (kenpom 5; Sagarin 4; RPI 5; Massey 2)
The good: Um, most everything. Their effective FG% (multiply by FGA to get points scored off FGs; it gives you a single number to compare) is 57.9%, 2nd in DI. They don't foul (21.1 FTA/FGA, also 2nd) and don't give up offensive rebounds (24.8% of possible ORebs, 3rd in DI).
The bad: Getting to the line. Is there an echo in here? (Actually, Ryan and Beilein have similar styles they prefer to play. Beilein just has a ... different team this year.) 30.2 FTA/FGA, right behind Wisconsin.
The B1G: Freshmen is as freshmen does. aOSU gave them something they hadn't seen before, and the young guys did not respond well. Unfortunately for Michigan, youth is all they have (338th in experience; Kentucky is 339th).
Non-con notes: Best win was 67-62 vs. #9 Pittsburgh at a neutral site. Best loss was Tommy Amaker.

3. Minnesota (kenpom 8; Sagarin 6; RPI 6; Massey 8)
The good: Rebounding. 47.9% ORB%, 1st in the world. Yes, they get almost half their misses. You'd think that would give them a ton more FGA than their opponents ...
The bad: ... but instead they have a whopping 1 more attempt. Why? They allow a 35.0 OReb% at the other end, and their TO% on offense is terrible, 21.9% (249th). They're wasting a lot of opportunities.
The B1G: They might be a touch overrated. Losses at Indiana and to Michigan at home aren't necessarily a concern yet, but if Minnesota can't beat the other top teams, they could have a tough time getting a high NCAA seed. (Well, not that tough: they play Michigan and Ohio State once each.)
Non-con notes: Best win was 70-57 vs. #30 North Dakota State. I know, right? They're 16-3, with losses at Indiana, Minnesota, and Wisconsin-Green Bay. Only loss was 71-89 vs. #3 Duke at a neutral site.

4. Indiana (kenpom 4; Sagarin 7; RPI 12; Massey 11)
The good: Drawing fouls. 48.4 FGA/FTA, 4th in DI. (Notice how many of these are single-digit rankings? Toughest conference in America, yo.) They drive and chargedraw fouls and do it again and again, and then you have the waterboy in at center or something like that. Zeller: 7.0 fouls drawn per 40 minutes. Watford: 5.0/40 minutes. That's a third of your starting lineup fouling out per game, kind of.
The bad: Eh, not much. 19.2 TO% on offense, which is a bit high (106th). That's about it.
The B1G: Barring a matchup in Indianapolis, Watford and Hulls will leave without a win over Wisconsin. Games like that are why Crean has a rep for doing less with more. Indiana has two games against each of the other four contenders. If they can't catch one on an off night, they could end up being the best 10-loss team in the country.
Non-con notes: Best win was 87-61 vs. #30 North Dakota State, 2012 I-AA football champions. (Also the type of team that could scare a team in the first round, or else have the worst night of their lives to have a bad game.) Only loss was 86-88 to #35 Butler in OT at a "neutral" site.

Playing for a high seed
5. Ohio* (kenpom 10; Sagarin 12; RPI 26; Massey 12)
*ht mgoblog and Brady Hoke – slights at aOSU's expense are always funny
The good: Cleaning up the defensive glass. They allow 26.4 OReb%, 16th in the country (and 4th in the conference!). With a defensive Block% of 12.5, sometimes your offense won't even be one-and-done.
The bad: Getting to the line. (Who doesn't?) 34.3 FTA/FGA, 206th. It's not a big problem, but their eFG% is not elite-level (52.1%, 49th), and they don't rebound at their end as well as you'd think (34.8%, 87th), so without drawing fouls enough, they chip away at their offense enough to make it good instead of solid.
The B1G: Well, they beat Michigan and were whipped by Illinois, so I don't know. It's tempting to say that this Ohio team occasionally drops its guard; three times under Matta, OSU has been seeded #1 or #2 and has failed to reach the regional finals, so I'm going to stick with that theory.
Non-con notes: Best win was 77-66 vs. #73 Washington. Worst(?) loss was 66-74 vs. #6 Kansas. Beat the bad ones, lost to the good ones.

6. Michigan State (kenpom 18; Sagarin 20; RPI 16; Massey 17)
The good: Cleaning up the defensive glass. (Copycats!) 27.3 OReb% on defense, 25th overall. If you thought this was normally a strength of the Spartans, you'd be right.
The bad: Possession. Not as bad as Minnesota, but close: 21.1 TO%, 202nd. Combine it with their usual lack of three-point shooting, and they're just not the type of team that should put together a good run when they need one.
The B1G: No real change. They beat the bad teams and lost to the one good one they played (Minnesota).
Non-con notes: Best win was 67-64 vs. #6 Kansas at a neutral site. Worst loss was 62-66 vs. #47 Connecticut at a neutral site. Izzo doesn't mess around when he sets up the schedule.

Playing for a tournament seed
7. Illinois (kenpom 63; Sagarin 59; RPI 24; Massey 46)
The good: They kind of take care of the ball (18.0 TO%, 50th), although not so much in conference play (18.8%). They're better than they were at the end under Weber, but they are not a 12-0 team. (No, I can't explain the Butler win.)
The bad: Preventing offensive rebounds. 33.8 OReb% on defense, 239th. You'd expect that from a team that plays zone, and that may be a side effect of the switch from Weber (we know the Keady Rule: zone? what's a zone?) to Groce.
The B1G: They don't belong at the big kids' table. A loss at Purdue is one thing; a loss at home to Northwestern ... whoa. I know, I know, by 19 over aOSU. Blind squirrels, acorns.
Non-con notes: Best win was 85-74 at #12 Gonzaga (fluke). Only loss was 73-82 vs. #25 Missouri at a neutral site.

8. Iowa (kenpom 34; Sagarin 43; RPI 74; Massey 57)
The good: Defense. An eFG of 42.9% is 14th in the country, 2nd in the Big Ten behind Indiana. It's not the annoying foul machinepress they run under Dr. Tom ... well, it kind of is, a bit. Anyway, you're not going to get a lot of open looks against Iowa.
The bad: Shooting. 49.2% eFG. The elites run in the low- to mid-50s. The offense isn't particularly impressive in any other aspect, so scores like in their games with Indiana and Michigan State are not surprising, even for a high-tempo team: their strong defense and weak offense keep the score down anyway.
The B1G: They'll earn the bubble bid they'll get. Iowa is the Big Ten team this year that will be seeded about 3 spots higher than some people think they deserve; the selection committee will reward them for their schedule.
Non-con notes: Best win was 80-71 vs. #33 Iowa State. (Really?) Worst loss was 79-95 at #139 Virginia Tech, and that will hurt them come bracket time.


Playing to clear .500
9. Purdue (kenpom 79; Sagarin 95; RPI 106; Massey 101)
The good: Defense. (Because obvs.) 43.2 eFG%, 20th overall. You will not get easy shots ...
The bad: ... but you will still have an advantage, because on offense, you'll see 45.5 eFG%. That would be last in a normal year, last by far (the next Big Ten team above the Boilers is Iowa, at 49.2%), but thanks to the New Guys, there's worse. Three-point shooting is bad (29.8%, 295th). Two-point shooting is bad (45.7%, 228th). Free throw shooting, not even part of eFG, is bad (62.9%, 313th). Purdue would be fine if it weren't for shooting. Unfortunately, yeah, that's the whole game.
The B1G: The Boilers won't be an easy out in Mackey. Mind you, the aOSU game wasn't as close as it looked – the Buckeyes' win probability never dropped below 75.6% – but it was still only a 10-point loss.
Non-con notes: Best win was 73-61 at #74 Clemson. Worst loss was 44-47 at #288 Eastern Michigan, the lowest-ranked team to beat any Big Ten team this season.

10. Northwestern without Drew Crawford (kenpom 90; Sagarin 85; RPI 84; Massey 72)
The good: Holding onto the ball. 17.4%, 29th overall. Naturally, Crawford was a key to that, with a 13.1% rate himself.
The bad: Playing without Crawford. They don't rebound well (27.8 OReb%, 294th; 33.1 OReb% against, 221st), and the one thing they did well is going to drop now. Watch for those ratings to plummet as the season progresses.
The B1G: Northwestern isn't deep enough to survive an injury to a key player. Illinois aside, the Wildcats are barely enough to challenge Purdue. Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa (?!) smoked them. Three of their next four games are against Indiana, Michigan again, and Minnesota again. Sorry, guys. Maybe 2014?
Non-con notes: Best win was 74-70 at #37 Baylor, a sign of things that cannot be now. Worst loss was 44-50 vs. #144 Illinois-Chicago, with Drew Crawford playing 36 minutes.

Playing because they are contractually obligated to
11. Nebraska (kenpom 162; Sagarin 141; RPI 66(!); Massey 119)
The good: Rebounding on defense. 27.0 OReb%, 24th. (Is this something bad teams do? Aside from Northwestern, that is.) Also, they're polite, and they're always on time.
The bad: Their choice of conference. Also, their offensive efficiency is 94.5 - more than 5% below average, 252nd in DI. Penn State is the only other Big Ten team below 100. They're just not good.
The B1G: Nebraska – you. You're not good.
Non-con notes: Best win was 50-48 vs. #76 Valparaiso. Worst loss was 60-74 vs. #111 Kent State. (MAC teams, man.)

12. Penn State (kenpom 201; Sagarin 195; RPI 162; Massey 167)
The good: Rebounding on defense. 24.9 OReb%, 4th in the country (behind Colorado State, Boise State, and Michigan). That's ... about it.
The bad: The loss of Tim Frazier, and shooting. Team eFG%: 44.2, 302nd. You can get all the defensive rebounds in the world, but it won't matter if you can't shoot. Also, they are fouling machines: 48.7 FTA/FGA at the defensive end, 337th (of 347). That's horrible. The next lowest power-conference team is Villanova at 302nd.
The B1G: When they play Nebraska, BTN will be sorry.
Non-con notes: Best win was 60-57 vs. #38 Bucknell, and they won't hear the end of that for a long time. Worst loss was 61-73 vs. #126 Boston College.

BS B1G Power Rankings

Last night's festivities in Ass. Hall left Bucky the Badger sitting alone atop the conference.  Bo Ryan has effectively re-focused his team after the loss of Gasser. After some early losses, they're playing some of the best basketball in the nation.

Bo Ryan demands all B1G foes bow before him.

1. Wisconsin
Why does anyone ever doubt Bo Ryan during January/February?  Gigantic white kids love cold gyms.

2. Michigan
A good blend of young firepower, seasoned experience and coaching in Ann Arbor...Trey Burke stirs the drink.

3. Minnesota
They were asleep for the entire first half of their loss in Bloomington...and still almost came back to win.  They're too good to have a half like that again.  You can't underestimate the importance of felon Senior enforcer Trevor Mbakwe to this team.

4. IU
If they had a good coach help them on gameday, they'd be the best team in America...their talent keeps them among the elite in spite of sideline inadequacy.

5. aOSU
To me, this might be the most-flawed team in the upper echelon of the conference...not real big, not real experienced...but very athletic.

6. MSU
Izzo is able to cover discrepancies and flaws with consistent intensity...and their powerful front court makes them a handful for about anyone in the nation.  Speed will end up killing them though...as will an officiating crew that uses their eyes to watch the Spartans under the basket.

7. Illinois
Rugged early schedule has beaten up the Illini and showed that they don't belong in the top half.

8. Iowa
This team plays at a high tempo, and it killed opponents in the pre-con...not so much in the conference. Their schedule has been the worst in the conference; they'll be lucky to leave January with three B1G wins.

9. Purdue
The Illinois game was big for Purdue...but without a couple more games in which the defense comes to play, our Boilers will be in the bottom-third of the conference for most of the season. Tonight's game v. Nebraska is nearly a must-win.

Purdue is showing signs of life as effort and fight has been prevalent in most of the B1G games...But they'll need to get much more efficient off offense in a hurry to get close to the bubble.

10. Northwestern
Wildcats doing what the Wildcats do.

11. Nebraska
They've looked better than the Cornhuskers from '11-'12 at times...at others, they've looked as bad as any team in the nation. Games in the 40s are too frequent for them to expect any post-season play.

12. Penn State
Penn State was pounded into a fine dust by Purdue in a game in which Purdue really did nothing well...Not good.

Completely BS Big Ten Power Rankings

Giving it all we've got, Cap'n

In yet another infrequent feature here at BS, it's time for a look at the conference in the form of the Completely BS Big Ten Power Rankings. Assign them the value they deserve, as you always do with our opinions.

As usual, we'll go from bottom to top. Like boilerdowd at a swingers convention.

12. Illinois -- The Illini are beyond a mess at this point. They're 1-9 in their last ten, Meyers Leonard is crying on the bench and complaining that people are mean to him on Twitter. This is a team that was ranked earlier in the year after a 10-0 start. Bruce Weber, a guy who took this program to the title game not so long ago, is lucky to still have a job, but won't for much longer.

11. Penn State -- They probably deserve to be higher in a BS power ranking since they crushed Purdue in Snappy Valley. However, the Nittany Kittens have shown little hiss otherwise, and get Purdue on the Boilers' Senior Night. Have fun with that.

10. Nebraska -- The newest members of the conference won our hearts with a win over IU but have otherwise not put up much of a fight in conference play.

9. Minnesota -- The Gophers have done what the Gophers do. They've hung around, beat some teams, gotten swept by Iowa and done just enough to not be completely overlooked at tourney time while also ensuring Tubby Smith still has a job. The bar is low in Minny.

8. Northwestern -- The dream of an NCAA tourney appearance took a serious hit last night as Northwestern - in true Wildcat fashion - found the banana peel against Michigan, blowing a seven point second half lead to lose a game at home that they had in their grasp. The Mildcats are now 16-11 (6-9) and have two road games (@ PSU and @ Iowa) in their final three, with the lone home date against OSU. Not looking good for the Cats to break the long string of tourney futility.

7. Iowa -- Our Most Hated Rival has quietly climbed back over .500 and with three winnable games in their four remaining has a chance at finishing at 17-14 (9-9), which I bet most Iowa fans would have signed up for (those who are literate enough to sign their own names, anyway). Fran has these guys playing hard and it shows.

6. Purdue -- Our Boilers are smack in the middle, much to Terry Hutchins' delight, as he predicted this before the season and we busted his balls for doing so. But the Boilers haven't done anything to earn a higher ranking than this from us. If the Boilers show some moxie and go 3-1 in their last four, they'll have shown everyone something and will finish at 10-8 in conference.

5. IU -- Despite still being a farce on the road, IU is a good team this year. They're 20-7 and can still hang their hats on the fact that they gave the #1 team in the nation their only loss. However, the Hoosiers won't be able to play BTT and NCAA tourney games in Ass Hall, so the ride will only go on so long.

4. Wisconsin -- Wisconsin does what Wisconsin does. Even with early season losses at home that stunned their fan base, the Badgers are still in the race for the conference and still ranked in the top 15  in the nation. Bo Ryan should get votes for Coach of the Year but I don't think he will. He's gotten everyone used to this. The next step in consistent Final Fours to get to the Izzo level.

3. Michigan -- The Wolverines have bared their teeth this season and not (yet) swooned to their typical late-season slide. They're 5-1 in their last six, including a big one over OSU and they're only a half game out of the conference lead with just three games to go, all of them winnable.

2. Michigan State -- The Spartans don't get the top spot from me despite being in first place by a half game, mainly because of a couple of weird losses, one to Northwestern and one to reeling Illinois. That game was a 42-41 loss, notable both for the fact that Purdue scored more than both teams combined against OSU and also for the fact that it might well be Bruce Weber's last win at Illinois.

1. Ohio State -- A scary-talented team, the Buckeyes could once again be a contender for the national title. Of course, with Thad Matta at the helm, they're more likely a Sweet 16/Elite 8 team that gets bounced by a higher seed. Yeah, I said it.

Thoughts? Agree/disagree?

MORE POWER (Rankings)

It's that time o' the week, time to discuss the Boiled Sports Big Ten Power Rankings (or BSBTPRs, for short).

You'll note that the author of this post varies from time to time -- so, too, might the ranking order each of us puts forth. I think by and large we'll agree, but when we don't, just recognize that we're two different little boys, with our own thoughts and feelings.

Away we go.

BS Big Ten Power Rankings

Whatevs!

We haven't yet done a BS power rankings for Big Ten football this year (yes, I still refuse to use the "B1G" nomenclature because it's stupid) and my season preview wound up stuck in draft limbo, so it's about time to talk about what we've seen over the first month. It takes about that long to have an idea of what we're dealing with, so here we go. We'll go from bottom to top... just like THuff likes it. What?

12. Minnesota -- Oh, poor Minny. Your program is reeling, your coach is providing scary moments and even FCS schools are a serious challenge. It's very hard to hate Minnesota, as our scientific polling found over the summer that they have the least obnoxious fans in the Big Ten. While we like Purdue having a potential win on the schedule every year, we certainly don't have any special love for seeing Minny struggle. Let's hope they rise up and embarrass OMHR this year.

11. Indiana -- I commented to B-dowd last week that this was the first year since we started the site that we've given IU any respect with regard to football. We felt like Coach Wilson has them heading in the right direction, and while we didn't think they'd necessarily be good this year, we felt like you'd be able to see the improvements on the horizon. Maybe his next recruiting class will help them turn the corner, just like Coach Crean's. But for now, they look as bad as ever.

10. Purdue -- And yes, you're pretty bad if you're currently ranked behind Purdue football. If anyone disagrees with this location for the Boilers, tell me why they should be higher or lower.

9. Northwestern -- Hard to believe a competent Northwestern team that may well go bowling is only fourth from the bottom. But they lost to Army and blew a huge lead over in-state rival Illinois. There were even commenters at Lake the Posts apparently calling for Fitz' job. Not sure that's legit, but they're pissed. On the plus side, Dick Weiss probably still thinks they're undefeated.

8. Ohio State -- Eighth place for now, Bucknuts. And to think I actually thought they'd still be good this year. I guess without bags of cash to talented players, it's hard to motivate guys.

7. Penn State -- PSU is not good. Let's just say that. But they're 4-1 because that's what they do -- they beat the teams they should. What a novel concept. I've heard a few people say this is a possible win for Purdue. Maybe if it were in Ross-Ade I would agree, but Snappy Valley is a very tough place to play. If Marve is starting, I think I'd feel like he could make some things happen. But who knows where things will be at that point?

6. Iowa -- Middle of the pack, sort of forgettable. Just like their state.

5. Nebraska -- Hey, welcome to a big boy conference, Nebraska! We would have loved to see you slap Wisconsin around just because, well, somebody needs to slap them around soon. But you did kind of what a lot of us expected after seeing how suspect your vaunted blackshirt defense is. I'd love to put you higher, but you haven't earned it.

4. Michigan State -- Aside from simply not rising to the moment against ND after years of owning the Irish in South Bend, the Spartans have been good, including an ugly win over OSU this past Saturday. Either the Bucks are really far worse than I thought or MSU is actually as good as I always seem to think they will be. Regardless, they've earned the 4-spot for now.

3. Michigan -- Yeah, they were 5-0 last year, too. But for now they've earned this.

2. Illinois -- Sure, they've looked shaky from time to time and needed a big comeback to stay unbeated on Saturday, but again, they're getting it done and that's what counts in the BS power rankings. Sure, it feels like the wheels are going to come off at any minute, but really, isn't that always how it is for the Zooker?

1. Wisconsin -- There is nobody else close right now. I don't want to hear more crap about how they haven't played anybody. Not many teams in the conference have "played anybody" and Wisconsin is doing what very good teams are supposed to do. They're bludgeoning everyone in their path, including previously single-digit-ranked Nebraska. I seriously worry they're going to put 75 on our Boilermakers.


Agree with these? Disagree? We'd love to hear it.

Homestretch Power Ranking

As we talked about on the HH and ad nauseaum during this season, our wish is that Purdue will be playing its best basketball of the season come March. It looks like we might get our wish as they continue to roll along- they've been the really beating good teams and winning the games that they're simply supposed to. Plus, with the exception of DJ Byrd, pretty much everybody's healthy and Byrd is playing through multiple injuries (as he has most of the season).

With all that said, and in the wake of a nearly-unblemished February, here's what we think of the BT right now:

1. aOSU
The only way they lose this spot is if the Forces of Good win out and they stumble...but I don't see it happening. They reminded Illinois why they're on the bubble and who's in the lead in the conference a few days ago. It gets easier for them Sunday before a few tougher tests.

2. Purdue
I'm fond of this team for some reason...and the more they play, the more I like what I see. The media will tell you that it's JJ and Smooge carrying the squad- people that watch every game know that players like Byrd are really the lifeblood of Painter's system. Plus, it seems that everyone has not only accepted, but embraced their roles.

3. Wisconsin
Bo Ryan might rival Gene Keady (in his prime) as the best regular season BT coach I've ever watched. This season has followed Ryan's blueprint for success and Bucky is in great position for the NCAA tourney.

4. MSU
After beating Illinois and Minnesota, Sparty now has a chance to beat UM and help to pop three bubbles in a two week span. Plus, they host our Boilers Sunday and can affect the BT regular season race as they scratch and claw their way back to respectability and into the dance.

5. Penn State
A win over aOSU might be enough to get PSU into the dance...their quality wins are pretty astounding and the fact that they've played much better in conference would be taken into account by the committee.

6. Michigan
Even when they don't win these days, they compete...which is better than much of the conference this February. The middle of the BT seem to be competing for the most creative way to play themselves out of the dance...UM & PSU, conversely, both seem to be playing solid basketball.

7. Illinois
The loss to IU might have been the straw that completely broke this heartless camel's back. Poor Senior leadership, listless effort, poor shot selection and underwhelming rebounding effort for a tall, athletic team are the hallmarks of the Illini the last month and one-half.

8. Northwestern
They'll get to the NIT, but Thompson deserves to go out on a higher note than the record that the Wildcats currently have.

9. Minnesota
One win in the month of February is a sign of just how far this early conference leader has fallen. I can't see how they get into the NCAA tourney with the way they've played since Nolen went down.

10. Iowa
Clearly Iowa has run out of gas and their lack of depth is killing the at this point. Iowa has zero four-star athletes on the roster.

11. Indiana
The Hawkeyes record might be the same, but their situation is quite different. McCaffrey is a hands-on coach that focuses on Xs & Os and execution. Crean seems to be a pre-game motivator and in-game cheerleader and allows his assistants to worry about the details. The result this season is an underachieving, but talented squad. IU has probably won its last game of the '10/'11 campaign, and without another win, the Hoosiers will have one fewer win than '09/'10.

Power Rankings and Buckeye Preview

Tomorrow's game in Mackey will have the attention of the nation. Tip-off is at 1:00 on CBS as our Boilers will have the chance to beat their second opponent ranked in the top-10 in less than a week. Off the top of my head, I can't remember them playing, let-alone beating two teams ranked that highly in a five day period. Obviously a lot can be gained in March by the success in February.

I've heard some concern from fellow Boilers about the letdown if Purdue does win tomorrow...but like the classic cliche says, let's just take it one game at a time. My reason for doing so is different than Matty's, of course. I just want to enjoy each game as the season is getting short and this amazing and abridged Senior class doesn't have too much time left in God's Country. I was lucky enough to be on campus the last time a consensus All-American was playing at Purdue...it's only happened 10 times, and we seem to be watching number 11 in JJ. But, just as Purdue's season can still change by what happens on the court from here-out, so it is with Johnson's standing with the national media.

All that said, he's been the picture of consistency as he's led the team in minutes (35.2), points (20.7), rebounds (7.8) and blocks (2.3). At minimum, he'll be recognized as an All-American by at least a few media sources...and, if a couple things happen, he might actually be involved in the POY conversations that he should have been involved in all along.

Along with JJ, Smooge's career at Purdue is coming to a close in the next few games. He's been leading scorer three of his four seasons. It'll be nearly-impossible for him to lead the team this season. But, he has an opportunity to be one of only six players at Purdue to score 2,000 points during his career, and just the 27th in the Big Ten conference's long history to do so.

He only needs 11 points, so it'll probably happen in the next 25 minutes of basketball for our Boilers. I can think of nothing more fitting than watching Purdue beat aOSU at the hands of a 21-foot dagger by Moore that puts him into the 2,000 point club. Hey, one can dream.

But, it's going to be tough, and here's why:

Jared Sullinger was the highly-decorated player of year out of HS, and hasn't disappointed anyone. While not the tallest PF in the nation, he's one of the biggest guys weighing in at over 280 pounds...that's a tough match-up for anyone. It's even tougher when he's given a pass by officials to hook his defender time and time again. But to me, he's not the most important player to stop.

Purdue struggled mightily in Columbus...not just with Sullinger, but with everyone. LewJack couldn't stay with Craft, Smith wasn't in Diebler's face, Moore couldn't stick with Lighty and Byrd had trouble with Bufford. It was probably the only time in the last four years that I can remember Purdue being truly out-manned at every position. So are they Buckeyes that good?

While they're the most-talented starting five Purdue has played, or will play, they're not as good as they seemed last month. Instead of playing them straight up, Purdue had all hands on deck shading off of their man to guard Sullinger. While help defense is important in Painter's system, that's not the Purdue way...and I think we'll see a much different game tomorrow than what we saw at Ohio State.

The Forces of Good must defend the three like they usually do...that's the key for me. And at the same time, each guy needs to keep his man in front of him and allow nothing easy. That painful 7 minute stretch in Columbus that put Purdue away saw Purdue allowing easy threes and even easier transition buckets.

Let's remember, while it seemed that the Buckeyes were a foot taller at each position last time the teams squared off, there's only a 2.5 inch/player difference in the starting five. And before you say anything about Jackson, keep in mind that he tore the taller Badger, Illini and Golden Gopher squads apart by picking his spots and using his quickness. If Purdue can force Matta to get past his 7th player on their roster, aOSU will be out of its comfort zone...the officials will have a thing or two to say about how that portion of the game goes. While Purdue can't control them, there's a lot they can do to beat my least-favorite team in the BT.

Power Rankings

1. aOSU

I think they're atop the conference to stay this season, but stranger things have happened. Regardless of where the season ends, they're the most dominant team in the conference since MSU a few seasons ago.

2. Purdue

At this point, they're exactly wehre they should be. Despite what the media tells us, they're less-reliant on their one-two punch than Wisconsin as the next three leading scorers average 5 more points/game than do Wisconsin's 3-5 players.

3. Wisconsin

There's room for debate on how good of a coach Bo Ryan is in the post-season. But, no one can say anything but positive remarks on his ability to have his team playing their best in February.

4. MSU

They're kind of in this position by default. No one else in the middle of the conference is playing good basketball right now. They're a bit like IU was a few weeks ago- they're competing against the elite teams in the conference, but haven't been able to close games out. Their next game is of utmost importance to them...and their opponent.

5. Illinois

Since Izzo isn't their coach, Weber's squad might need a victory more than MSU to get into the tournament. The Illini might lose three of their last five games of the regular season.

6. Penn State

Their pre-con record has put them in a position in which it'll be nearly-impossible for them to make the dance. It's a good thing they host that other tournament each season.

7. Minnesota

They're the exact opposite of PSU- their pre & early conference schedule put them in a postion where it'd be difficult for them to not make the tournament...but they're not playing well right now. That said, it'll be hard to deny a 19 or 20-win BT team with a top-50 RPI from getting in.

8. Michigan

Their young guys, specifically Hardaway, are playing well...a strong end to the season and a good NIT showing might give the some confidence for next season.

9. Northwestern

At this point, they're playing for a home game in the NIT...but I think that might be a long shot.

10. Iowa

Flip a coin- both IU and Iowa are entering their next games with three-game losing streaks, which will more-than-likely turn to four following their next contests. Iowa gets the head-to-head tiebreaker.

11. IU

[Posted with iBlogger from my iPhone]

Handsome Big Ten Basketball Power Rankings

I entered "powers rankings" in Google images and this is what came up. Honest.

Let me start out by saying I don't think I'll be getting on board with this sophomoric "B1G" logo/abbreviation thing. I am seeing it creep into the lexicon of the Big Ten Blogger community (including my co-editor here at BS) and every time I see it I think it looks like either a military acronym or something a really poor typist (again, like my co-editor here at BS) would do. Either way, it's all part of the horribly designed new Big Ten branding that we've already railed against (and probably will continue to).

However, it's handsome power rankings time... with B-dowd jetsetting around the snowy countryside, you'll be dealing with me today. Hopefully, I won't screw it up. Let's go worst to first. And let's also note that the Big Ten has been a little odd lately, with pretty much everybody other than OSU managing to lay some stinky eggs in the past week or so.

11. Michigan State -- Yes, they're at the bottom this week. I honestly don't know how you could put them anywhere else. B-Dowd and I looked at their schedule after the loss to the Boilers and we saw vs Mich, vs IU and at Iowa and we joked that after those three wins, they'd be back to being ranked. Well, they almost lost all three to some of the league's bottom-feeders (a one-point win in OT over IU was the only thing saving them from currently being on a 5-game losing streak. Oh, and they go to Madison next. Have fun with that.

10. Iowa -- You're out of the cellar, boys, and believe me, I'd love to put you even higher after the absolutely dominant (not joking) performance over MSU. I mean, seriously... Iowa was up over 20 at halftime and maintained it. The game was never in doubt and, well, would anyone have believed that was possible at the start of the season? So yes, Iowa gets some love, and I'd love to put them higher, but they're actually still pretty bad.

9. Northwestern -- I feel like the Kitties should get a little more love after almost taking down #1 OSU, even without Shurna, but in the end they didn't pull it off. And when you look at their body of work, it should make you mad if you're a fan of NU. This was a team that was -- again -- thought to maybe be the one that finally makes the tourney and now their only Big Ten wins are IU, Iowa and Michigan. Fine, but win a couple where maybe you shouldn't be automatic.

8. Michigan -- The Wolverines have played a manly schedule this year, which we respect immensely. But starting 1-6 in the conference is not a good resume-builder, and while they appear, on the surface, to be righting the ship, their two straight wins have come against MSU (who I think we can all now agree are not what we all thought) and Iowa. The Wolves get the Bucks tonight and you can be sure we'll have our Maize and Blue on.

7. Indiana -- Here's your reward, Hoosiers...a bump to #7 in the BS Handsome Power Rankings. Two consecutive wins (at home) over ranked opponents (though neither will be ranked much longer), including one that was court-storm-worthy. I especially liked ESPN putting up the graphic of their last two consecutive home wins over ranked teams. Those wins were in February 2008. And then a few days later, the sky fell...but ESPN failed to mention that.

6. Minnesota -- You're lucky, Gophers, because you probably belong lower...but as I said earlier, there were so many stinky eggs laid recently, even the top half of the rankings are filled with teams that haven't been performing up to snuff. I half-considered giving everyone other than OSU a ranking below 5 and just leaving a few slots blank. The Gophers are soft, plain and simple.

5. Illinois -- As B-dowd said last week, Coach Weber is not doing a great job with his talent and upper-classmen-laden team. However, I'm not prepared to rank them at the bottom of the conference, simply because they're still a talented, dangerous squad. As I look at their schedule, I think they should finish at least 6-3 the rest of the way. If they don't, Weber should be questioned.

4. Penn State -- Yes, this is a little high. But I love their effort, they've beaten three ranked teams in their last four wins, and this is all in spite of Ed DeChellis. I think they could finish 6-2 in their last eight, though it will mean a couple of tough road wins (tough, but winnable -- MSU and Minn). That would make them 18-11 (11-7 Big Ten), which probably won't get them into the NCAA tourney. But this is the kind of team that could easily win the NIT and hang another banner in Bryce Jordan.

3. Purdue -- The Boilers have lost four of their last seven, including the blowout loss in Columbus. However, all the others have been in their grasp, but for their inability to finish. Will that change down the stretch? I think it can and should. The game the other night in Madison was unquestionably the toughest road test the Boilers had left, and they nearly won it despite playing like horsesh-t for 75% of the game. That's not to say the Boilers' road is easy by any means, but nothing worth having ever is.

2. Wisconsin -- How does evil Bo Ryan always wind up in the top tier of the conference? It's kind of incredible. He just rotates in thick, white, upper midwest blockheads who beat the ever-living crap out of their opponents all season...and as we've said before, he also now has a team that can shoot, too. No, they're not the most talented team in the conference, but they're playing solid ball. Like Purdue, they haven't lost at home and have only three Big Ten losses. However, with the win over the Boilers, they have a slight edge. Fortunately, the Badgers come to Mackey in two weeks.

1a. Travis Carroll -- I can't get enough of this guy. He deserves a spot in the rankings by himself.

1. O$U -- This team is money! Despite their letdown game against NU, the Bucks remain undefeated. And perhaps that's the difference between potentially great teams and near-great ones; the Buckeyes were able to survive their letdown game.

Until next week, stay warm and remain handsome.

Tonight's Upset and Power Rankings

Cutbacks and a tough economy have made the entry to The Discount Arena less-extravagant

I have huge news...I know why our Boilers will beat an Ohio State University tonight at the Discount Arena. Sure, JJ will be tough for Sully to chase. But, on the other end, JJ isn't super-enamored with guarding a banger in the blocks. And yes, Smooge is back...but David Lighty is as good of a defender as about anybody in the league. Ryne Smith can bomb...but Diebler shoots it as well as anyone in the nation from distance. And LewJack is playing the best basketball of his career...but Buford is a tough match up with his length and all-around game. Purdue's a bit deeper in its rotation, but aOSU has two guys off of the bench that are a handful and would probably be starting at most schools in the nation in Craft and Thomas.

I guess these two teams are both pretty good. And if I was going to really analyze this one, and look at how Purdue would win, there's a number of things that should happen. I'd say Purdue needs to throw as many different looks at Sullinger as possible. It'd be good to use up a few fouls and have Marcius, Carroll and Bade use up a couple of fouls while making him work to get the ball. Then, they need get him in foul trouble and dare Matta to keep him out of the game for long stretches. Smith and Moore have to hit the open looks as the Buckeyes switch into zone and use LewJack to change the pace and not let them set up on defense. I don't think Purdue will win the foul battle...nor do we have any reason to believe they will have more rebounds than aOSU...so it'll come down to making the most of possessions, shooting well and scoring off of transition while not letting the Buckeyes dictate the pace of the game.

The main reason Purdue has a good chance to win tonight

More important than all of these aspects of the game, are the intangibles. And I've got one that makes Purdue a sure-fire winner: My brother. Granted, I'm crossing sports, but this guy is responsible for some of the biggest Boiler victories in the past 15 years. UND in South Bend- yep. Beating highly-ranked K-State in San Antonio? Uh-huh. The Boilers over Penn State in Happy Valley? You guessed it. Sure, you can give credit to Kyle Orton or Drew Brees or even Joe Tiller...if you'd like, but I know the truth about all of these games and who's really responsible.

So, with "KDZ" in the Discount Arena, Purdue will upset the #1 ranked team in America 70-66...and Ryne Smith will be the key cog to victory. The way I look at it, this is the victory that would be most-memorable for our Boilers, if we are forced to choose just one v. the Buckeyes during the regular BT season. The national stage, versus a team that the media is jelly-kneed for, what does Matty and Co. have to lose??

Sic 'em, fellas!

Power Rankings

1. aOSU- They keep winning, they stay at the top.

2. Purdue

3. Minnesota- Goldy is pretty hot right now...Can't wait until they visit Mackey.

4. Wisconsin- Bo Ryan's club is quietly stalking the rest of the league right now...they're not out of it.

5. MSU- Until MSU figures out how to play tough inside on offense, they're going to be in trouble

6. Illinois- This is a pretty disappointing season for Weber & co...and I think it's going to get more disappointing as the season goes on.

7. Penn State- Best 10-win team in America...not sure if that says much, but it's true.

8. Northwestern- They're teetering their way out of the NCAA tourney. If they don't get some quality wins in conference, they'll be on the outside once-again.

9. Iowa- They made their statement to IU loud and clear...they don't belong in the cellar.

10. Michigan- Find me a more-disappointing team in America...Can't do it.

11. IU- Oh wait, here's one. IU fans continue to deny what their eyes are telling them. I guess wins and losses no longer matter to those who wear candy striped pants...But they try hard...sometimes.

Weekly Power Rankings & The Cliz

Here's where I we the league right now:

1. an Ohio State University

They're showing vulnerability for the first time this season. Turns out, when you play teams that have size and defense, the season gets tougher. Their nearly-30 point margin per game is shrinking with each BT contest. That said, they're still undefeated. Here's to the Bucknuts being undefeated and number 1 when Matty's boys head to the discount arena on the 25th.

2. The Purdue University

Our Boilers have a rhythm offensively, a scary-good defense and two super stars who have been a bit quiet for a couple games. I don't think a ton of teams in America want to tangle with Matty's boys right now. The first big test of the season is tonight in the Barn. (Purdue's CCR is now 6th)

3. Penn State

Nice week for the Lions. Their loss to Purdue put DeChellis & Battle on a mission.

4. MSU

Sparty escaped doom v. Wisconsin. Two losses in a row, again, would have hurt the barely-ranked Spartans. Instead, this nail-biter might have righted the ship.

5. Illinois

If they're not shooting out of their mind, they're losing. I'm unimpressed with the effort given by Illinois game-in, game-out and their lack of toughness (outside of McCamey) seems to be a formula that puts them on a collision course with the middle of the pack.

6. Wisconsin

I'm still leery of playing Ryan's squad...never trust a wounded badger.

7. Minnesota

Tubby Smith surprised me this week by looking the other way after Mbakwe violated his parole virtually via Twitter. The Gophers are thin and I guess winning is more-important than discipline for a coach that I've always held in high regard.

8. Northwestern

The purple are the personification of how tough the league is this year. They score a ton of points, play solid zone defense and have multiple players that are deadly shooters...and they're eighth. A win by the 'Cats in East Lansing would rock the league and rocket them upward.

9. Michigan

The Wolverines got a huuuuuge moral victory last night. That's about the only type of victory they've been getting recently. I guess you take it how you can get it. Next up, the Wolverines get the Forehead- that's good for what ails ya!

10. Iowa

They're better than a winless team and will do some damage toward the end of the season...but it's too soon for the rebuilding Hawkeyes to be in the bright lights.

11. IU

Granted, the video that they've released reminds us of their greatness (24 years ago), so they've got that. And, their fans remind that they'll be pretty awesome in the future...But as for now, they stink.

The Cliz

I've been listening to Mark Montieth's conversations during the work day this week. First JJ gave me a look at what makes him tick (not too much surprised me in this conversation). But today, I listened to Larry Clisby talk about his past and his current situation. It kind of floored me.

Cliz's voice triggers happy feelings of the hay day of Gene Keady's time at Purdue and the deep valleys of the Akers Era for Boiler football. But, while always honest, Cliz sometimes leaves a bit to be desired when it comes to verbal description of what's happening on the court. I think now I really understand why. He bleeds with Purdue like I do. It hurts him as bad as it hurts the players when they lose...and I like that.

Just as IU has the unmistakable Don Fisher behind the mic, Purdue has Larry Clisby. I love the fact that he is a franchise in himself. I hope he gets to retire when he wants to from broadcasting our Boilers. If you're a Boiler you need to listen to his interview.

Big Ten Basketball Macho Rankings

The Forces of Good are 2-0 in conference and sit atop the league along with three others. But, every coach in the league really is looking to impress the BS staff. Anyone can have Power Rankings...Only the greatest site in all of the land has Macho Rankings.

Here's how we think the league shakes out at this point.

Was there any doubt?

1. an Ohio State University

The gap has shrunk considerably between one and two as the Buckeyes showed some weakness v. the Hawkeyes...but until they lose, I'll have a hard time voting them lower than #1.

Only one could be higher

2. The Purdue University

Matty's squad seems to be hitting its stride. Everyone's getting to know their own. Choo choo, muthas.

Bad, bad dude

3. MSU

Izzo has righted the ship with wins over Minnesota and a close one v. the purple in Evanston. I'm looking forward to seeing how they play versus Wisconsin in two games.

Very few are more gritty, more macho

4. Illinois

A good win over Wisconsin and being 2-0 holds Weber's team among the early elite...but I don't think they'll be there for long.

The Macho King is not the King of Macho

5. Wisconsin

The Badgers dropped one earlier than I thought they would, but Leuer and Ryan will do big things in the next few weeks.

Don't hassle the Hoff...unless you've got a cheeseburger

6. Northwestern

Their record doesn't say it, but they're not horrible. Tough scheduling has put the 'Cats in a difficult situation. They really need to win the next three games if they want to make the dance. Is it possible that their contest v. Illinois is a must-win this early. It might be- they're in need of a confidence builder.

J was a huge Wham! fan

7. Minnesota

Two losses and a near loss to the worst team in the league aren't good signs of things to come for a team that thought it'd be near the top this season. Attrition is already killing them for multiple reasons...and they haven't even gotten into the meat grinder that is the BT schedule.

He's as big of a winner in the pros as he was in college

8. Penn State

They're playing much better ball than I thought they'd be this season. DeChellis has that fire in his eyes that brought home an NIT championship a few years ago. Oh yeah, and Talor Battle is still the truth. Can't wait until he graduates.

Martin is to Purdue as Shelly Long is to Cheers. (am I showing my age?)

9. Iowa

I actually think they're better than the 9th-best team in the league...and they play like it at times (case in point last night's contest).

We miss you already, Coach.

10. Michigan

I wasn't skerrrrred of the Wolverines before they pooped the bed at Crisler versus our Boilers...and they haven't shown me anything to improve my opinion of them. The really bad news for them is that their next three games are probably losses...Is it possible that Beilein goes the way of RichRod at the end of this season? Maybe they'll look outside of Morgantown for their next big hire.

Good at clapping...bad at coaching.

11. IU

Crean's club almost stole one in a very quite barn last night. The Forehead blamed the loss on Elston's illness via Twitter...I'd blame the loss on the Forehead. IU has too much talent to be in the position they're in. I don't care what IU fans tell me.

Finally, BT season has arrived

It feels like the pre-con has been longer than normal, to me at least. It could be because Our Boilers didn't have a ton of interesting contests. Regardless of why, I'm glad the real season's upon us today at 2:00 for some odd reason.

The first game of the conference schedule happened last night and IU fans, for some reason, might not be as happy that the BT schedule is here. As they did the last few seasons, they played well for the first few games of the non-conference, but seem to get weaker as real basketball approaches. Now, I wouldn't call PSU a world-beater...or even a regional power, honestly, but they handled IU in Ass. Hall last night with relative ease. The Clapping Clown (just heard that new moniker for the Forehead and I'm trying it out) had no answer for the basketball genius that is Ed Dechellis. Talor Battle's performance wasn't surprising. But, PSU's forwards' play was. 15/8, 23/8 with 3 blocks were their lines. And the fact that PSU only went 7 deep couldn't be overcome by an IU team that has a 10 man rotation. IU's in trouble...again.

And that's my segway for my BT power rankings.

11. IU

Crean has been tearing up the recruiting trail, but I'm not sure if it matters. His gameday coaching seems to be getting worse. And a lineup that includes Jones, Watford and lots of guys with experience isn't being utilized effectively, in my opinion. The Hoosiers are lousy on defense and play a soft brand of basketball.

10. PSU

Talor Battle stayed, no one else did...and for some reason, Dechellis still has a job. Battle deserves better, but he'll have to wait until when he's a pro to be on a more-competitive team.

9.Iowa

Iowa has a heartbeat due to some renewed passion and a new coaching staff. Cole, May and Gatens are solid, but depth will be a problem for the Hawkeyes during the BT grinder.

8. Michigan

I'll admit it- I don't believe in Beilein. Until he gives me a reason to think otherwise, UM will be down near the bottom of the conference, in my opinion. We'll see them up close today.

7. Northwestern

At 7th in the BT, with a running start of 9 wins, NU could be on the edge of making the tourney...but I think they'll be on the outside, once again. It's not their fault- they'd be fine in a mid-major conference, battling near the top. Instead, they'll be in the lower middle, yet again.

6. Illinois

In spite of having loads of depth and talent, Illinois doesn't look great to me. Plus, like IU, they look soft. That's not a good thing for a BT team. If they figure a couple of things out, they could be near the top of the conference...they haven't done it yet.

5. Wisconsin

Their two losses aren't bad, but, like Purdue, they have no signature wins. Bo Ryan's a witch though, we all know that. With the Birdman coaching and Jon Leuer doin' what he do, they'll make plenty of noise.

4. Minnesota

I like this Minnesota team- Tubby's recruiting efforts from a few years ago are paying off in the form of a bunch of talented players. I'm just hoping Matty remembers how his squad was embarrassed by them last season and has the boys motivated...Goldy will be a handful.

3. Purdue

I've watched our Boilers (like you) plenty this season, and here's what I know: Smooge and JJ are as good as they're supposed to be. The defense is as good as it's supposed to be. But, they haven't really been in a pressure-cooker yet and haven't faced anybody. I look for our Boilers to start off very strong in the conference, but the end of the schedule gives me nightmares that leave me sitting up in bed and sucking my thumb. Until I see either: a third defender that strikes fear into the opposition OR Barlow/Bird/Hart get more consistent offensively, I have a hard time believing Purdue wins the BT. But, we've said it all along- that shouldn't be this team's goal, in our opinion.

2. MSU

NCAA violations and a team that has no identity are the first things I think of this early season with Sparty. But, like Bo Ryan, Izzo is an amazing coach during the conference schedule and he'll get his guys on the same page in the next month, I'm sure of it. Too much talent, too much experience, too much coaching savvy to not be in contention for the league title.

1. aOSU

Sure, I'm positive Matta can screw this up. But, the aOSU recruiting machine loses the player of the year, and somehow, they look better? Don't get cocky Thad, it has nothing to do with your gameday abilities. Sullinger, Lighty, Buford and Diebler are scary...but aOSU could struggle against teams who have good bigs and solid defense (read as MSU and Wisconsin). From where I'm standing, looks like the Bucknuts will win the BT by a nose (OK, just stop with the snickering...I wasn't talking about Matta).

A lot can and will change...but one thing's clear, the BT is strong like bull. Let's tip this mutha off.