Boiler Resume Thus Far

With two-straight winnable road games ahead of Matty's squad, a 12-3 record, and an RPI that leaves much to be desired (43), the post-season forecast for our favorite squad is murky right now.  And last night's upsets had an effect on our Boilers.

-Beating Temple has been viewed as a quality win since it happened, but their win against Duke helps their RPI and in turn, helps Purdue's.  Temple is 9-3 and 27th.

-Like Temple, Iona only has three losses.  Also like them, they're in the top-30, but barely...at 30.  I think we all had a hard time watching Purdue allow Iona score 90 points, but this season, they've scored over 100 twice, and have scored 89 or more points four times.  As of now, they look to be the favorite in the MAAC.

-We thought High Point and Western Carolina were not good when Purdue squeaked by versus both...turns out, that's exactly right.  High Point has won three games and Western Carolina, five.

-When it happened, losing to X seemed like a case of a very talented, solid team beating a team that wasn't quite ready for primetime.  Let's remember, this was a Xavier team that was highly ranked that hadn't yet decided to go gangsta.  After the suspensions, Xavier can't find its rhythm or chemistry and stands at 9-5. They're no 54th...they're not receiving any votes from the coaches and are a paltry two votes ahead of Purdue in the AP.  Losing to a 10-4 LaSalle team doesn't sound bad at first blush...but LaSalle has consistently been in the 100s all season.

-Purdue gave the nation's reigning runner up a gift prior to the Christmas season at Conseco...and I for one saw this game as a massive indictment on Purdue's inability to finish games and play on a bigger stage. Butler's gone from a sub-.500 team to a .500 team and has two relatively easy games coming up before facing Cleveland State. They've broken the top-100 in the RPI and sit at 91st.

-Alabama is the only decisive loss for Purdue this season...and all Purdue fans agree that Purdue just wasn't as good as that team at that point.  With 'Bama in the teens consistently for a few weeks coming into that game, it didn't seem like a bad one to drop.  But after the Purdue win, Alabama lost three in a two week period and it looked like they were in the midst of a free fall. The ship has been righted in Tuscaloosa and Alabama, while not ranked, is barely receiving votes in both polls...but the RPI calculation loves them and they stand at 17th.  The problem for them is their conference is 6th in total RPI...the good news for them is their conference is filled with cream puffs and patsies, so they'll only have to play 5 more top-50 games.

-The importance of the Illinois game might get larger as the weeks go on.  Illinois is 22nd in the RPI...sure, they've been on a bit of a slide as they dropped from the teens to receiving no votes (other than Weber's) in the human polls in a matter of two weeks. But, their losses all come to quality opponents (UNLV, Mizzou & Purdue). Who knows if their dramatic road win over Northwestern means the Mildcats are on the express train to the NIT or that Illinois is back on track.

I know, I know, the RPI is a very flawed barometer of the quality of a team, especially before February.  But, averages and equations limit a rocket ascent or rock-like plunge.  While Purdue has been consistently un-noteworthy this year in that poll, hanging around in the 40s-60s, their stock has risen the last few games and they now are #43. That equation predicts Purdue going 21-10...which is exactly where we at BS saw the Boilers finishing (between 20-22 wins was my prediction).  And I believe that record would get Purdue in the dance at a six seed.  Not great...not bad.

I'm a bigger fan of Ken Pom's equation.  It's had Purdue a bit higher all season.  Currently the Forces of Good are 21st their...and 24th on the Sagarin Poll. But the tourney committee doesn't bring anything but the RPI and the team's resume into their room, I'm told.  Still, I think the Composite Computer Ranking that we at BS bring you regularly might be the best sign of where a team truly is.

Right now, like much of the season, Purdue is hovering around 30 and the CCR is 29.3...probably exactly where my eyes tell me they should be.  Like all of you, we see that this team has a ton of potential and a pretty high ceiling if Hummel gets hot, LewJack can mend a bit, TJohn can hit 50% of his FTs, Lawson and Carroll continue to improve, Barlow plays to potential, Byrd plays solid, etc...but a key injury that hurts the rotation could do the opposite.  And, as we saw last night, anyone can beat anyone on a given night. This is why as it gets colder outside, the warmest, most-welcoming place in the world is a college basketball arena.

Tonight, Purdue travels to the loneliest valley in the nation during basketball season to play PSU at 8:00. They'll be greeted by hundreds of fans at the BJC who kind of care what happens on the court...but that won't stop the Lions from putting up a fight as two of the best PGs in America square off in Jackson and Frazier.

Poll Dancing 1/31/11

This week's polls are out and our Boilers land at a respectable 11/10. Their composite computer ranking is 8.7...so they're pretty close to where they should probably be.

A couple of things perplex me about the poll though.

While I understand that the reigning national champ deserves respect, Duke was crushed by an unranked team who was on a 5-game losing streak...and dropped to 5th. Duke has not beaten a team in the current RPI top-35.

Syracuse, who now has lost four-straight, has only dropped to 17th. Keep in mind they were whipped at home in the last week by a team barely in the top-100.

Hopefully, the mid-season malaise has worn off for the top teams in the land...or at least those named Duke and those in the Big East. If not, the pollsters heads are bound to explode.

In other media news: JJ averaged 23/7 in two games versus ranked opponents, yet wasn't honored by the Big Ten as a player of the week. In his place, PSU's Talor Battle (22.5/2) versus one ranked opponent, one lousy one & Darius Morris (triple-double & 17/8 games v. two unranked opponents) take home the imaginary hardware.

(After glancing over the polls, I must have missed IU's ranking after their amazing win over Illinois and near-win against MSU)

Az over-rated Az can be

Every year, the media fawns over the Big East, and every year, the conference tends to disappoint when the chips are down. Let me make a comparison for a moment.

I'm in my mid-30s...happily married and really love my wife. But, I'm not blind. So, when I see good-looking women, I typically notice. But, when back on campus, when I see a group of young c0-eds looking like college girls do- cute, having fun, it's noteworthy. A friend of mine used to say, "it's not that the young girls are all that good-looking, it's just the fact that they're always in groups. Once we get a bit older, women are seldom in groups anymore...so men can't help but take note of a group of OK-looking younger women."

Fair point. The Big East is a group of OK-looking women. Sure, there's a decent one or two in the group of 16...but the media is just awed by the group, more than anything. Sure, Georgetown and Syracuse got it going on...but really, 'Nova and Louisville are nothing more than nice-smelling shampoo and pretty hair. Nevermind.

The point is, there are some over-rated teams. Some are over-rated because they beat a few other over-rated teams (read as UConn). Others are over-rated because everyone thinks they're better than they're playing right now (that makes no sense, by the way...you are what you are) but really don't deserve any praise (read as MSU). Others still defy logic- they've proven nothing and their only past success is pretty shady (read as Memphis).

pretty girl

But the real head-scratcher of the top-10, for me, is San Diego State. Let's take a look at the Aztecs, shall we. They're led by a coach who had success in a previous life- Michigan's old pal, cheatin' Steve Fisher is at the helm for the Aztecs who play in the always rugged Mountain West.

According to the RPI, they're not even the best team in their conference, BYU is. The Sagarin system and Ken Pomeroy agree that BYU is more-formidable as well. But the human-based polls disagree with this assessment. SDSU checks in at #7...In America...in men's college basketball.

But why? Is it because of their quality wins? Well, they've beaten a few teams in the 40-55 range- 2-loss St. Mary's, 2-loss Wichita state and 5-loss Cal. Nothing in there that suggests they deserve the respect they're getting.

"But boilerdowd, Purdue has only beaten a few teams in the top-50." That's true, but here's what Purdue's not:

-They're not ranked as highly (10/11) (SDSU is 7)

-Their composite ranking (RPI, Sagarin & KenPom) is 10.3...SDSU's is 11.3.

-They're not a team that ended last season unranked and lost in the first round of the NCAA tourney (as they have every time they've ever played in it, mind you).

Human polls are flawed and biased. Computer polls, while flawed, don't have the built-in bias. But, I guess it makes sense when a team hails from a power conference, has a proven record of recent success and has two potential All-Americans, they'd be the media darling. Oh wait, that team isn't the media darling- they're the one that only gets reminded perpetually about what it doesn't have. At the same time, SDSU has no major recent success, hails from a mid-major has solid players, but none that have been mentioned as All-Americans, yet they're the media darling. I'll chalk this one up to another reason why I as a Purdue fan have a chip on my shoulder...And Matty's boys should perpetually play with one.

Finally, BT season has arrived

It feels like the pre-con has been longer than normal, to me at least. It could be because Our Boilers didn't have a ton of interesting contests. Regardless of why, I'm glad the real season's upon us today at 2:00 for some odd reason.

The first game of the conference schedule happened last night and IU fans, for some reason, might not be as happy that the BT schedule is here. As they did the last few seasons, they played well for the first few games of the non-conference, but seem to get weaker as real basketball approaches. Now, I wouldn't call PSU a world-beater...or even a regional power, honestly, but they handled IU in Ass. Hall last night with relative ease. The Clapping Clown (just heard that new moniker for the Forehead and I'm trying it out) had no answer for the basketball genius that is Ed Dechellis. Talor Battle's performance wasn't surprising. But, PSU's forwards' play was. 15/8, 23/8 with 3 blocks were their lines. And the fact that PSU only went 7 deep couldn't be overcome by an IU team that has a 10 man rotation. IU's in trouble...again.

And that's my segway for my BT power rankings.

11. IU

Crean has been tearing up the recruiting trail, but I'm not sure if it matters. His gameday coaching seems to be getting worse. And a lineup that includes Jones, Watford and lots of guys with experience isn't being utilized effectively, in my opinion. The Hoosiers are lousy on defense and play a soft brand of basketball.

10. PSU

Talor Battle stayed, no one else did...and for some reason, Dechellis still has a job. Battle deserves better, but he'll have to wait until when he's a pro to be on a more-competitive team.

9.Iowa

Iowa has a heartbeat due to some renewed passion and a new coaching staff. Cole, May and Gatens are solid, but depth will be a problem for the Hawkeyes during the BT grinder.

8. Michigan

I'll admit it- I don't believe in Beilein. Until he gives me a reason to think otherwise, UM will be down near the bottom of the conference, in my opinion. We'll see them up close today.

7. Northwestern

At 7th in the BT, with a running start of 9 wins, NU could be on the edge of making the tourney...but I think they'll be on the outside, once again. It's not their fault- they'd be fine in a mid-major conference, battling near the top. Instead, they'll be in the lower middle, yet again.

6. Illinois

In spite of having loads of depth and talent, Illinois doesn't look great to me. Plus, like IU, they look soft. That's not a good thing for a BT team. If they figure a couple of things out, they could be near the top of the conference...they haven't done it yet.

5. Wisconsin

Their two losses aren't bad, but, like Purdue, they have no signature wins. Bo Ryan's a witch though, we all know that. With the Birdman coaching and Jon Leuer doin' what he do, they'll make plenty of noise.

4. Minnesota

I like this Minnesota team- Tubby's recruiting efforts from a few years ago are paying off in the form of a bunch of talented players. I'm just hoping Matty remembers how his squad was embarrassed by them last season and has the boys motivated...Goldy will be a handful.

3. Purdue

I've watched our Boilers (like you) plenty this season, and here's what I know: Smooge and JJ are as good as they're supposed to be. The defense is as good as it's supposed to be. But, they haven't really been in a pressure-cooker yet and haven't faced anybody. I look for our Boilers to start off very strong in the conference, but the end of the schedule gives me nightmares that leave me sitting up in bed and sucking my thumb. Until I see either: a third defender that strikes fear into the opposition OR Barlow/Bird/Hart get more consistent offensively, I have a hard time believing Purdue wins the BT. But, we've said it all along- that shouldn't be this team's goal, in our opinion.

2. MSU

NCAA violations and a team that has no identity are the first things I think of this early season with Sparty. But, like Bo Ryan, Izzo is an amazing coach during the conference schedule and he'll get his guys on the same page in the next month, I'm sure of it. Too much talent, too much experience, too much coaching savvy to not be in contention for the league title.

1. aOSU

Sure, I'm positive Matta can screw this up. But, the aOSU recruiting machine loses the player of the year, and somehow, they look better? Don't get cocky Thad, it has nothing to do with your gameday abilities. Sullinger, Lighty, Buford and Diebler are scary...but aOSU could struggle against teams who have good bigs and solid defense (read as MSU and Wisconsin). From where I'm standing, looks like the Bucknuts will win the BT by a nose (OK, just stop with the snickering...I wasn't talking about Matta).

A lot can and will change...but one thing's clear, the BT is strong like bull. Let's tip this mutha off.

Respect and Silence...Wednesday Gumbo

Oakland has decided to follow the Butler model and play some absolute monsters in their pre-conference schedule. The debate will perpetually be is a good loss better than a bad win- I'd argue that any win is better than a loss in this day and age. But, no one can deny that a win versus a ranked team is very helpful to a mid-major in the long run.

Our boilers struggled for about 25 minutes with Oakland before putting them away. MSU barely scratched out a win. But last night, Oakland got over the hump versus Tennessee.

For those keeping score at home, that's Tennessee's second loss versus a common opponent with Purdue. Granted, one of those doesn't count, but that doesn't mean I'm forced to forget it. Tennessee is 7th, Purdue is 19th. And I understand the point about Purdue's lack of difficult opponents. But, let's look at a few other ranked team's schedules, shall we-

Villanova has only played one ranked team- they lost. They've only played one other big conference team (UCLA)- The Wildcats are 10th.

UConn skyrocketed up the charts by beating a then-undefeated MSU team (now has three losses) and followed it by beating an undefeated UK team (now has two losses). So they went from un-ranked to top-10 in two weeks. If you watched Kentucky, you can see they're a typical SEC team (read as not very good). MSU will be good, but Izzo's gotta tear 'em down first. UConn's 4th.

Illinois is 12th. Their quality wins, I guess, are against unranked, 3-loss UNC, and unranked, 5-loss Gonzaga. They beat Oakland by 11...Purdue beat them by 15. They beat SIU by 21 at home, Purdue beat SIU at a neutral (and empty) site by 19.

In all seriousness, look at the top-10. Outside of Duke's dominance of nearly all of its opponents, everyone's looked shaky at times this season...and very few teams have played more than 2 major conference opponents. Much like in football, it'd probably behoove everyone for rankings not to come out until a month into the season. But, unlike football, it'll all come out in the wash as they actually decide who's the best on the court.

Purdue's schedule is definitely detrimental, but, they Boilers have beaten their opponents by an average of around 20 points. And, their one loss comes to a team that is now receiving votes and will most-definitely be ranked in the next few weeks. I'm sure Purdue's permanent place at 18 or 19 in polls won't be affected though.

Silence

If you haven't seen this, here is one of the most-unique, if not cool traditions in college sports. The small Christian college, Taylor does something that most of the lower bowl in Mackey would like to do each game- watch in utter silence (at least for part of the contest).

Check it out.

Early Tuesday Gumbo

As you've probably already heard, Keith Smith is going to commission the NCAA for a sixth year of eligibility. I honestly have no clue what took him so long to come to his decision...but I'm stoked he'll return. K. Smith has consistent hands, catches well in traffic and runs precise routes...the little things that he does are greatly missed amongst the youth movement that has been thrust into action this season. In football the details matter, and this season, focus on the details has been non-existent for the kelly green Purdue offense. It's pretty impossible to take time in practice rounding out the rough edges when the guys barely even know the play book.

Atop being a damned good receiver, Smith might be the best morale guy in the locker room. Can the return of Smith and the other injured Boilers make a 3 win swing from this season, possible? We'll see.

Consistently Inconsistent

Since this site's inception there have been a few consistent themes: We're critical of Purdue when we feel it's warranted, we love our Boilers like Paula Deen loves butter, we can't stand media types running the company line and we generally think early season polls, regardless of the sport are nonsense.

The last two pillars are related this year because EsPN has declared Purdue an also-ran, as you all well know, and the media poll has Purdue pretty low since Rob went down. But, the coaches got involved in the nonsensical back-beating of our Boilers this week. After Purdue easily handled its exhibition bidness and made easy work of Howard without playing many of the starters in a normal amount of minutes, our Boilers still dropped one spot...and UNC passed them.

Sure, it makes no sense. UNC struggled in its first real game and their final margin wasn't nearly as large as Purdue's 36-point thumping of the Bison...but let's remember what almost every coach admits- Many have their dogs filling out their polls. By the time the season is up and running, coaches have no time to invest in this nonsense, and they act like it. UNC is a an easier pick...national titles, Caroline blue unis, McDs AAs throughout the line-up...I get it.

Just so we don't take this poll too hard, here are some other oddities in the poll (at a glance):

-Tennessee is ranked (in both polls, no less). Yes, same Tennessee that was beaten by the University of Indianapolis, pretty badly at that, at home. I know it was exhibition...but do people who fill out polls really ignore such a blemish, whether it counts or not. They shouldn't. I don't care what the explanation is, shouldn't matter...it's still a game that was publicly-viewed and was a bad loss.

-Xavier, who is solid each season and has a ton of Juniors and Seniors on the roster, barely beat a bad team in their first contest, so they were booted from the coaches poll and was never invited to the media party. UNC who has a few Juniors returning from the awful team of '10, beats a crappy team by a slight margin, and is rewarded.

-Wisconsin returns three starters, is coached by Bo Ryan and seems to always be rock-solid, beat a lousy team by an eye-popping 44 points is barely-ranked by the coaches and unranked by the media.

There's more...but like the coaches and mainstream media, I haven't seen enough basketball to go through the poll slot by slot. Unlike some sports, it'll all be decided on the field of play, at least.

A New Era

This weekend we saw UM beat a bad Purdue team. All is right in the world, right, college football fans? Well, no.

There's simply no denying how bad Michigan is defensively. But that didn't stop this once-proud program from celebrating like they won the national title as they walked off Ross-Ade's field. I guess the old adage of "act like you've been there before" really doesn't play here...because many on the Wolverines roster, including their coach had never tasted the sweet nectar of beating Purdue at home.

Similarly, Notre Dame's fans rushed the field after beating a non-BCS school at home. At first blush, it seems odd since UND has all that history, and what-not. But, how many ranked opponents have the Irish beaten in recent seasons? But theres's more to this story.

Weeks ago, UND students started commissioning eachother via their student newspaper to rush the field sarcastically after Utah beat them. The significance is that with that game, many thought UND's seniors would become the school's losing-est class EVER.

Obviously, the Seniors avoided that distinction, at least for a few weeks. But as the Irish faithful streamed onto the field last Saturday, I think they helped everyone in the nation understand something that was already known by many: Big talk by big name coaches and heritage doesn't come close to guaranteeing success...ask IU basketball fans- Oh wait, those were the same people who were rushing the field in South Bend...nevermind.

And Speaking of Basketball...

Remember when Scott Martin left Purdue because he didn't like living in the shadow of his lifelong pal, Rob? We do.

His plan to follow his dreams two hours North haven't worked out as he and Mike Brey had envisioned, as you already know. But after a couple games, he's letting his game do all the talking. Martin is currently fourth in scoring, fourth in rebounding, fourth in minutes played, fourth in assists...and first in turnovers for the National Brand, UND.

So much has changed!

Waaaaaaay back on April 7, one of EsPN's geniuses, Andy Katz had Purdue atop his top 25. He spoke of the upper classmen bolstering the team and how Robbie Hummel's knee, IF healthy would be a warm-fuzzy story for the nation to gobble up.

Well.

As JJ and Smooge have decided to return, and the docs and coaches are giving nothing but positive news about Rob's surgically-repaired knee, Katz, of course, has Duke jumping over Purdue into the #1 spot. This is because NOTHING changed for K's team since Katz last wrote his last dumb poll. Makes sense...right?

Well, to people out of the know like you and I, it might not seem logical, but to the little voices inside of Andrew's head, it makes complete sense.

Perhaps he's arguing with himself and Purdue can earn back the #1 during the summer with key additions and subtractions of nobody and no breaking news...OR...more likely, mind you, Purdue will be jumped by MSU as the Ostrich starts running, JJ gains 15 pounds of muscle, Smooge works on his first step and we find out the incoming Freshman are in great shape and hungry to get on the court.

Makes perfectly-good sense to EsPN...as it does to keep this boob employed. I guess if he and the network throw everything against the wall, eventually they'll be correct. Just as in his buckshot approach to whom he's "heard" might be joining the BT, eventually, he'll look like the smartest guy in the room...if he just keeps talking/writing.