Boilers-Bama Predicto

Those of you who visit the site regularly know that B-dowd is more of the analyst around here, while I'm just the window dressing, eye candy, what have you. However, he's on his way to the other side of the world right now (BS's tentacles are far-reaching) and so it's up to me to steer the ship.

And I must admit, I feel a bit foolish just getting to this prediction post for today's game now. I should have done it sooner. I apologize. To be honest, though, I didn't even realize Purdue and Alabama were playing until just recently. I must have missed it but there it is on the schedule, 3:30 PM Purdue versus Alabama. Huh, 3:30... must be the marquee ABC game. Maybe Brent Musburger will be doing it.

This rivalry goes back a ways, believe it or not. Nick Saban was the coach of Michigan State for a while there and while he did good things for Sparty, Joe Tiller sort of owned him. In 1999 Michigan State was 5-0 and highly ranked. They came into Ross-Ade and Joe Tiller and Drew Brees laid a 52-28 whupping on an MSU team that would wind up 10-2. Overall, Saban was 0-3 at MSU versus the Tiller Boilers and 1-3-1 overall vs Purdue.

However, this Alabama team is a bit different. Purdue's only hope is that the game is in West Lafayette and the Tide are coming off a horrible collapse against Auburn last weekend. Of course, this could also only serve to amp them up and have them takes things out on Purdue. What do we think?

Boilerdowd says:

I like the Boilers in this one...big. I didn't really at first but then after spending a night with Travis from Hammer & Rails, I was converted. (In more ways that one... hey-yo!) I think the Boilermakers will slap around Alabama and show them how we do things downtown in the Big Ten.

I don't even know what I meant by that. I'm thirsty.

Purdue: 77
Alabama: 6


Tim says:

I'm hungry. I like hamburgers. But I don't eat fast food anymore. I made it a personal goal to not eat fast food. So now I go to places like Steak-N-Shake instead because, you know, since you sit down and have a waitress it's technically not fast food, right?  I mean, I'm not saying I did it for the health benefits...I just wanted to be able to say I haven't eaten fast food in a year or two. What? Are you judging me? All I ever wanted to do was watch LeBron, eat deep fried food and grope my wife. And now I've only got one of those things left, so I'm clinging to it. She says it hurts. I don't care.

Purdue: A banana
Alabama: Boobies!


J says:

We're a little worried about Tim. We're having him checked. For rabies.

I think I might have done this post wrong.

Purdue: 81
Alabama: 73

What?

Freefall

I don't know. I really don't. I'm at a loss to explain the Boilermakers recent performances. I think what's weird is that there isn't a consistent theme. One game it's poor free throw shooting. Another game it's poor three-point shooting. Games like today, it's poor rebounding or, one might argue, a complete and utter lack of focus. The Boilers didn't look ready to play and didn't cash in a win that they should have, losing their third straight, 72-64.

We said this was as near a "must win" as you can have in January. And Northwestern started the game looking a little nervous, turning the ball over a lot early and not scoring for the first three-plus minutes. Yet Purdue couldn't turn it into the insurmountable lead that good teams -- top ten teams -- do. Instead, they went into the tank and allowed the Cats to go in a 12-0 run before finally summoning some effort to close the halftime deficit to just one.

During that first half, we saw Chris Kramer's ankle get rolled on, causing him to come out for a while and also to have his minutes limited in the second half. Rob Hummel then took an elbow to the eyeball -- with no call, of course. I don't care what Wayne Larrivee says -- that's a FOUL. Whether or not it was "intentional" is immaterial. It's a flipping FOUL. And, really, it's a flagrant. But it's, at the very least, an offensive foul.

Jim Burr and his merry band of idiots even reviewed it and decided, nope, clean play. Meanwhile, Rob was bleeding all over his face. Solid.

There was a lot of chatter on Twitter about awful officiating and, yes, I agree it was not good. However, that should simply not have mattered. Purdue's talent is far beyond that of Northwestern. This should not have been a game.

In the second half, Purdue actually regained the lead and clearly had the mojo going. In previous games this year, if the Boilers had a second-half lead, the game was over. They were going to shut you down and squeeze the life out of you. Not anymore. Why is this? Are they tired? Losing motivation? Not as good as we thought? I don't think it's the last one because you have to be good to start 14-0 and to beat two top ten squads.

There seems to be a consensus that the bench needs to do more, and that may also be true. But let's back up a step. The bench wouldn't be nearly as critical if JaJuan Johnson and Keaton Grand were playing like they're capable of playing. Not getting better than they are -- just playing to their abilities. Right now, these guys are vanishing. KG had a couple nice threes today but he has some critical turnovers each game, too, and I just really miss sophomore year Keaton. I wish he'd come visit.

And as for JJ, well, I don't get it. I really am at a complete loss. The guy looks like a manchild at times -- such as in the tournaments last year, both Big Ten and NCAA. And now he's come back to mediocrity (or worse). If he winds up playing great in March again, it will be completely official -- this is a case of motivation. And that sucks. If JJ can't get up for these January games, that's worrisome. What kind of guy is he? What kind of heart does he have? Sure, I'd rather he's up for March games than January games....but we shouldn't have to choose! You only get so many chances at a special season, boys! Seize it!

Against Northwestern, the Boilers only got to the line 19 times -- but his 17 of them. Infuriating, since if they'd done this against Wisconsin, they may well have won. Rob Hummel had a fairly quiet 20 points and appears to have regained his shooting touch, shooting over 50% tonight. And Smooge continues being the most consistent guy of the season, scoring 24 points on 7-15 shooting and 9-9 from the line. E'Twaun is a true pleasure to watch these days, and seems to be the only guy improving as a player this season.

The Big Ten regular season title is long gone. A #1 seed is long gone. A #2 seed is a stretch now. Sure, they could win out from here and win the Big Ten Tourney, but do you really expect that to happen? Now it's simply time to win games and try to finish in the top 2 or 3 of the conference -- and even that is now going to be a struggle. I hate to feel this way, but as you look a the schedule, is there any game that feels like a gimme anymore? They could honestly lose any of them... but yes, they could win any of them. And that's a good thing....or as good a thing as we have at the moment.

All is not lost, and I refuse to think that way. This is still the same team that reeled off 14 to start the season. But this team needs to play Sandy Marcius and it needs Lewis Jackson to get healthy. Things down low are not working, and perhaps a little kick in the pants -- and perhaps some time on the bench that isn't the result of having two fouls in the first five minutes of a game -- would motivate JJ a bit. Also, it's no secret that Purdue does not inbound the ball well or bust a 1-3-1 press well. LewJack would help with both.

Boilerdowd said to me tonight that he thinks this seals a few things. For one, no 1 or 2 seed. For another, he thinks everyone's coming back next year, since this team isn't having the special season we were hoping for. We're certainly not writing it off, but if they aren't going to accomplish their initial goals of winning the conference and obtaining a 1 or 2 seed, then why should we think they'll accomplish further goals?

I say keep the faith. Hard as it may be right now, keep the faith. We're going to learn a lot about these guys over the next two months.

Purdue v. an Ohio State University Predicto

The vest will have a lot to smile about at the end of Saturday

Bouncing to 1-6
J says:
Purdue will lose to OSU this weekend. I think you'd have to go back to the pre-Tiller days to find a bigger certainty. Purdue rarely beats OSU, even when the Boilermakers are damn good. And this Purdue team, make no mistake, is not damn good. Oh, sure, they've shown some flashes and you could make the argument that when you lead every single one of your games at some point, you ought to have a higher winning percentage than .170. But as we've said before, the team is more than just the POTENTIAL and the FLASHES. It also includes the downright embarrassing special teams play and questionable coaching and preparation. That all goes into a team. Yes, with a few bounces, Purdue could be 6-0, or at least 3-3. But how many "bounces"? Twenty turnovers in six games. Three and one-third turnovers PER GAME. Even bad teams will beat you if you turn the ball over that much. If Purdue doesn't turn it over and IF Purdue plays inspired and IF OSU doesn't bring their A-game and IF the Boilers get some fortuitous calls and IF Purdue gets the "bounces" and IF Bolden can somehow shred a top ten defense like he shredded Toledo.....THEN could the Boilers win? Meh, maybe. But probably not.
OSU 45
Purdue 16

Kind of, not-really, but probably a blowout
Tim says:
I don't think it will be a blowout, but it will look like one on the scoreboard. Mental mistakes (stupid penalties, costly turnovers, dumb play-calling) will rule the day. I don't even care to analyze the game, because realistically I don't give Purdue a chance at all. Could they pull an upset if they play a perfect game? Absolutely. Ohio State is not untouchable. Will they play perfectly for more than a drive or two? I doubt it.
Ohio State 30
Purdue 14

Get your ice cold loss!
boilerdowd says:
This just in: A ticket has become available, so I'll be there. No, I still can't afford the $70 face value, but another Boiler has decided they can't bare the idea of an icy-cold loss surrounded by a bunch of goons spelling 4-letter words in unison...So I got the call. I'm always happy to watch my Boilers in person, but this one might be more of an act of love...and not enjoyable at all.

Terrelle Pryor is a flat-out lousy passer, but I don't think he'll need to throw the ball too often. Look for heaping helpings of the power-I formation from the Buckeyes...and if Purdue decides to crowd the line and go man on the outside, Pryor will find a way to hit one of his blue chips for a surprising (not to me) big pass play.

I look for aOSU's defense to score on three or four occasions more than Purdue's offense.

aOSU 33
Purdue 10

To your call once more we rally, Alma Mater, hear our praise;
Where the Wabash spreads its valley, Filled with joy our voices raise.
From the skies in swelling echoes Come the cheers that tell the tale,
Of your vict'ries and your heroes, Hail Purdue! We sing all hail!

Hail, hail to old Purdue! All hail to our old gold and black!
Hail, hail to old Purdue! Our friendship may she never lack,
Ever grateful ever true, Thus we raise our song anew,
Of the days we've spent with you, All hail our own Purdue.

Defensive Backfield gets more shallow

LJ&C reports, Josh McKinley has been kicked off of the team. Gavin Roberts, who I can't remember seeing play this season, falls into the two-deeps.

Lewis Jackson Arrested (Unconfirmed)

We don't yet know if this is our LewJack but it appears that Lewis Jackson, Purdue's freshman point guard, may have been arrested two days ago in Piatt County, Illinois for not only underage drinking, but also possession of weed and the paraphernalia that goes with it.

Not sure what impact this will have on his '09-'10 season. Much as I hate to admit this, I'm glad it happened now and not during the season when he might get suspended for it.

We'll see how it plays out and will continue to try to determine if this is for sure LewJack.

(Big thanks to reader Joey for the tip.)

Coach Sanctions Quickly Erasing 50 Years of IU's Good Standing

Well, it's front-page news now over at ESPN.com. Kelvin Sampson has a new slew of violations, being termed "major," against him.

And while we all dislike IU here, I don't think you've ever heard us suggest their athletic programs were dirty... that is, until Coach Sanctions showed up and brought his baggage with him.

Sampson is known to have made almost 600 illegal recruiting phone calls while at Oklahoma and then, while on probation for that, he went and made roughly 100 more improper calls in his first year at IU. Solid!

IU has already done the old, force-out-the-assistant-and-let-him-take-the-fall routine, when Coach Senderhoff "resigned" his position in October. Now what?

"We are extremely disappointed in these new allegations regarding coach Sampson," [Athletic Director] Greenspan said in a statement. "To say the least, we view these allegations with grave concern."

Not good, IU, not good at all. Again, I dislike IU with all my being but when it's becoming clear that you always ran clean programs and that your reputation is being sullied constantly by an unscrupulous coach... well, what do you do? Isn't cutting ties with that coach a good first step?

Maybe Jim Harrick's available.

IU Fans: Don't say you weren't warned.

Lots of people thought the hire of Kelvin Sampson was a bad idea...I never did. I'm all for Purdue's main rival getting into bed with a proven cheater...you know what they say about lying with dogs. But, I can understand how it grates on Hoosier fans to hear their coach called "Coach Sanctions" by a Purdue fan. Well, after this season, that nickname might not be enough to describe the coach. Sanctions just might be replaced with harsh punishment...problem is, that doesn't flow well with his name.

I guess I'll just continue to call him Coach Sanctions until the NCAA decides otherwise.

ESPN's Andy Katz reported late Tuesday night that the NCAA is going to get its list of violations...the hearing/penalizing of IU will occur in the later spring/early summer. You guys can't say we didn't warn you.

Purdue will get to play IU for the only time this season in a week (thanks Jim Delaney)...and I'm excited to see Purdue come into the home of the best team in the Big Ten and further their quest for a Big Ten title. IU has the best overall record in the league and just one loss, like the Boilers. But, I'm going to go ahead and believe ESPN when they say IU is the best team in the state right now...until its proven otherwise.