I think there are three potential outcomes after the Big Ten Tournament for Purdue, barring some kind of catastrophic occurrence (like, oh, for example, last year vs Minny).
1) Purdue wins the Big Ten Tourney. If this happens, I think Purdue is in line for a potential 1-seed or, more likely, a very strong 2-seed (read: the top team in Chicago).
2) Purdue wins Friday night over MSU (most likely) and then loses to either Wisconsin on Saturday or OSU on Sunday. If this happens, I project Purdue as the 3-seed we currently keep seeing them as in mock brackets.
3) Purdue loses Friday night to Michigan State. If this happens, I think Purdue winds up as a 4-seed, which is kind of incredible... it would be almost exactly what happened last year and would culminate a hell of a roller-coaster month. And it'll make some people ask if Purdue peaked too early, if you believe in those sorts of things.
Incidentally, I think if Iowa pulls the upset of MSU and advances to play Purdue, you'll see the Boilers win by 20 or 30. I hope it happens, but I don't think it will. I also worry about Purdue having to beat MSU three times in one season. While they only need to beat them once on Friday, I can't imagine many teams have ever beaten Izzo thrice in a season.
I think the most likely outcome for this team is the 3-seed we've been seeing. And if they wind up in that Anaheim region that I keep seeing them projected for, well, I'll take the projections I've been seeing, because they would be 1) ND 2) BYU 3) Purdue. That would mean that, assuming seeding more or less holds to form, Purdue would have to beat BYU and/or UND to get to the Final Four. And I'll take that right now. Sure, it would be a load of drama facing the national program that is UND, but we here at Boiled Sports would absolutely love not only knocking out IU fans' second-favorite program, but also ending Scott Martin's season in painful fashion. I only wish Rob Hummel could hit a dagger three in his grill.
We also sometimes see others saying, hey, let's not worry about seeding, let's not stress, etc. And while I sometimes sort of agree that we just need to let things fall where they may, I will say this: seeding does matter. You've heard me say it before: last year's crappy seed cost Purdue a legit shot at the Final Four. If Purdue doesn't wind up running into the national champions in the Sweet 16, well, I think they honestly have a really good shot at getting to Indy. And if they weren't a 4-seed, they wouldn't have faced the Dukies that early...or maybe wouldn't have even been in their region. So it very much matters.
As a 4, you have to win four tough games to get to the Final Four. Siena showed they were there to play and a couple years ago, Northern Iowa was happy to be there, but did a hell of a lot more the following year. Purdue dodged a bullet there. Point is, if you're a 1 or a 2, you have one really cakewalk game and perhaps one more semi-easy game. So now you've only got two really tough games to get to the Final Four. That's a hell of a lot more appealing than having four bloodbaths to get there. Know what I mean?
Of course, all that said, 4-seeds (and lower) can and have advanced to the final weekend. So I certainly won't be making excuses if Purdue doesn't get there and basing those on seed. Because Purdue will have the chance this weekend to earn the best possible seed they can get.
I'm ready for some BTT. Choo-choo, muthas.
9 comments:
Kansas is struggling right now, but their 1 seed is probably locked anyway.. however, Doug Gottlieb pointed out a stat that doesn't surprise me but I had never heard before: no team has EVER won a national title after losing their first game of their conference tournament.
Pitt losing to UConn could end up hurting or helping us - if we take care of our business all weekend though, it will ultimately help us. We're the only ones who can hurt our own seeding. Everyone else can help ours if we help ourselves.
Now hurry up and get this Kansas game off my TV. I want to watch the BTT.
J - don't ever say "cakewalk" with Purdue as a #1 seed. Remember the troubles the team had in the 90's when they hit the tourny with such a good seeding. Let us just say, the path should be a little easier, and leave it at that.
I'm pulling for a 2 seed, but at this point will gladly take what is given. If this team wants to get to the Final Four, they will do it regardless.
I think getting past Wisconsin is a much bigger deal than seems to be mentioned here. Notre Dame has pretty much already locked up one of the Chicago berths, and it stands to reason that the winner of the Purdue/Wisconsin game will get the second.
I know Purdue has shown in the past that they are capable of winning tournament games in far away lands, but it would be a nice advantage to be just up the road for the first weekend.
I totally agree with your seed prognostication. That's why Friday is the most important game of the year. I can live with a 3 seed outside of Chicago as long as the matchups are favorable. And it would be great to beat Wisky and lock up (IMO) a 2 seed in Chicago. But the game that we must have is Friday.
Nice column today. I swear I share your same thinking when I read this stuff. I've thought of all the same things with MSU and Iowa and then hoping for BYU and ND and how awesome it would be to take down ND.
I'll be at the game tomorrow and can't wait! Hoping for some payback to Iowa.
Wouldn't it be sweet to face Wofford in the first round?
Choo, Choo...
I also agree with your seeding. Purdue is probably out of the running for a #1 because of the Iowa loss: they have to pass 4-5 other teams to get there, and that seems to mean a BTT title including a win over Ohio State plus help from other tournaments. A tournament title without a win over UW or OSU probably isn't enough. (A TCU win over BYU would be a big help; Pitt's loss today likely won't drop them to a #2.)
I don't think they'll fall to a 4, though, even with a loss in the quarters. I don't think that many teams can pass Purdue. I'll admit it's not out of the question.
BTW, as I posted on Facebook, the last team to beat MSU three times in one season was the 2004 Badgers, who went on to win the BTT (and lose in the second round of the NCAAs). That's it, though. It doesn't come up much because you generally don't see teams sweeping MSU during the season. The fact that two teams did it this year (Purdue and Michigan, woo!) is pretty surprising, too: that hasn't happened in the BTT era to the Spartans before.
Illinois swept them in 2006 and lost in the tournament; they've not played anyone else three times in a season that I could see. (Side note: MSU won 18 straight in "conference" play in 1999. They lost their opener to Wisconsin, won the remaining 15 regular-season games, then took the BTT title as well. They won the conference by six games that season.)
I think we have a shot at a 2 even if we lose to Wisconsin, and will probably keep a 3 even if we lose to MSU. But we'll see.
Plang -- All I'll say is that this isn't the '90s (and you're old.)
Purdue would coast as a 1 seed vs a 16.
Looking great so far......F my life.
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