Another Prediction...Another Slap in the Face

The Underdog.

If you watched Purdue's basketball team this past season, you know at times it was tough to watch.  It's been well-publicized that this team was hobbled coming into the season and didn't get healthy until February, and it showed.  Two of the three captains couldn't practice at all for months at a time and two more of the top-5 scorers slogged through injuries that kept them from playing the game they way they did down the stretch.  On top of that, a guy that was as divisive as talented had to be given the boot for the team to have cohesiveness.

These aren't excuses, in fact, they're testaments to Painter's ability...because in spite of all of this...in spite of Purdue having no post presence for much of the season, in a conference that has serious beef under the basket, Purdue still made the tournament and still won 20+ games.

Because of this...because of what we've seen Painter do during his time at Purdue, I'm bewildered by the media's view on his team for the coming season.

Here at BS, we like BTN's Brent Yarina.  He researches his subject matter and generally knows what he's talking about.  But he got his premature conference prediction wrong...and Purdue isn't the only reason why. The moving parts around our Boilers are flawed, yet, by his own admission via Twitter, he believes all seven teams above Purdue in his predicto got better while Purdue didn't.

Let's look a bit at his reasons why he likes everyone in the conference except Purdue, shall we?

2012-13 PROJECTED STANDINGS
1. Indiana – The entire starting 5 is back, plus IU welcomes one of the nation’s top recruiting classes.

I really have no beef with this one.  While I don't respect Crean as a game coach, his ability to get talent to IU has been astoundingly-effective. As Thad Matta will tell you, talent doesn't need much coaching.

2. Michigan – Trey Burke’s return makes Michigan a national contender — leadership is lone issue.

Michigan loses three starters...glue guys, if you will.  Novak started for three years, was a clutch shooter, an intense defender, a coach on the floor, and was all B1G Honorable Mention (and looked like Christian Laettner).  Douglass never missed a game at UM, was a great shooter and Smotrycz started the majority of the games and created tough a tough match-up with his ability to play low and high. Leadership will be an issue as Yarina said...but so will consistency.

3. Ohio State – Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft could become one of the Big Ten’s elite duos.

I agree with Thomas and Craft being a great tandem...but losing a guy who was one of the nation's best for one season and one of the conference's best in his Soph season might change a team a bit.  On top of that, aOSU's offense relied heavily on Sully's ability to clear space and their offense ran through him. Most-interestingly, unlike most of Yarina's favorites, the Buckeyes have an incoming class of ZERO (at this point.

4. Minnesota – Trevor Mbakwe joins a talented and underrated roster that clicked down the stretch.

Mbakwe is a guy who is as talented as any power forward in the nation...reminds me a lot of Kansas' Robinson, but with baggage off the court. So when a guy like that blows out his knee, I think it might be fair to think his explosiveness could be effected; Our pal at BTN doesn't think it matters.  He also thinks that a team that lost 7 of its last 10 B1G contests clicked down the stretch. Oh wait, they did...but when playing teams like LaSalle, MTSU and teams from the awful Pac12.

5. Wisconsin – The Badgers know how to replace star players, and history says they’ll do it again.

I think Wisconsin will actually be better than this.  Losing Taylor is tough, but it's the big honkies that have made Bo his dough...and UW will have plenty whitebreads cut from the Brian Butch mold next season.

6. Michigan State – How will MSU replace Draymond Green and will Branden Dawson be ready to go?

This is another team that I think will be better than Yarina thinks. Harris, Costello and Valentine will be immediate-impact guys...but Harris specifically will only make Nix better as Appling and Payne force themselves onto opposing defenses.

7. Iowa – Aaron White and Devyn Marble headline one of the Big Ten’s most exciting teams.

As we say last year with this team, excitement doesn't translate to wins...but I guess it will translate to more wins than Purdue, ammIright?

I think losing a four-year starter in Gatens is a pretty large deal to this team...but they'll be very dangerous.

8. Purdue – Without a proven big man or facilitator, the incoming recruits arrive with plenty of pressure.

I think his insinuation that Purdue's loss of Jackson will be important.  Sure it will, but the pair of Johnsons both played point last season...and if other teams get credit for their incoming classes, why doesn't Purdue? Three four star-rated players, three guys over 6'9" (one a 21 year old Frosh, another a 7 footer) and a point guard who has played against the most-talented state, in the hotbed of Indianapolis and shined.

I don't mind Purdue not being picked as a conference favorite.  BUT, to put a Matt Painter-coached, defense-first team in the lower third of the conference is worse than a slap in the face, it's foolish. Painter has won as an underdog before, and he'll do it again this season.

Yarina's post wasn't the first disrespectful shot across Painter and his squad's bow in the very-early pre-season...but it was the one from one of the guys that I consider a pretty-knowledgable writer from the network that focuses on the conference.  It warranted a response, not because it's wrong, but because of the source.

Yarina's right- the conference is getting better.  But why stop at eighth? Illinois has a hot name as coach and one of the best players in the league returning, Northwestern has two great players returning and a coach that runs a goofy offense that's tough to defend, and PSU has one of the best players in the conference back with a coach that shows his team's play will match his intensity.  Let's just make Purdue's fall from greatness noteworthy and colossal and place the Boilers at 11th in the league, what do you say? There's no doubt the league is good, but an eighth place prediction nearly says Purdue doesn't belong. 

Clowns like Goodman, Katz and others barely recognize that Purdue has a basketball team now that Hummel is no longer with the program.  But before Hummel was on campus, Painter devised a plan that allowed Purdue, with only two real scoring threats, no real point guard and a ton of lunchpail defense to win 22 games.  Before JJ was JJ, Purdue won 25 games while being led by Freshman and Sophomores...and last year, even with much of the starting line-up held out of practice and without anyone underneath who was formidable, Painter squeezed 22 wins out of a team.  The defense will be back to what we've become accustomed to in '12/'13...and Purdue will surprise Yarina, and others.

In '12-'13, Purdue, Painter and company will relish the underdog role...again.

A Look Ahead to Jayhawks

Georgetown just got done doing what Georgetown do: Bowing out of the tournament early.  The end result is NC State is heading to St. Louis to play the winner of Purdue v. Kansas.

Now let me tell you what I think about this evening's match-up (Look away if you have a weak stomach):

This game is about match-ups...and here's what we know.  Purdue's two victories versus ranked opponents came against UM and St. Mary's.  Both teams used guard play as the strength that led them to a ton of wins.  Our Boilers have few problems when playing guard-happy teams.  They have good defensive and offensive players in the backcourt who can play against anybody...in the frontcourt, the story changes.

Here are some teams that controlled Purdue from wire to wire in one or more contests this season: Alabama, MSU, aOSU and IU.  What do they all have in common? Good big men...athletic, long, strong players who Purdue simply has no answer.

So here comes Kansas.

They have not one, but two skilled big guys in their starting line-up.  One is a player of the year candidate, the other gobbles up space and averages nearly 10 points, 7 boards and 3 blocks. So who guards Robinson and Withey?  I have no idea.

My guess is that we'll see Hummel, Byrd, Carroll, Marcius and Lawson all try to juggle Kansas' large pair.  And I also think this group effort will yield a pretty big struggle as none of them are great match-ups for Robins and Withey.  Byrd's not big enough, Hummel's not quick enough, Carroll's not strong-enough, Marcius isn't skilled enough and Lawson has a hard time finding position in the post.  If we could combine all of them, we might have a pair of formidable post players; sadly I don't think we have the technology to do that just yet.

So, methinks it'll take some hot shooting- something we haven't seen in a few games, to just keep it close. Byrd, Smith and Hummel are all due for a good game offensively...especially Smith and Hummel.  But there are no guarantees...One thing that Purdue can control though is being smart on offense.  They can make the extra pass (I'm talking to you, Robbie), not take hasty threes out of the flow of the offense (I'm talking to you, DJ) and let the game come to you (I'm talking to you, Ryne).

It can happen...Purdue can go to the sweet 16; we've seen the underdog come through time and again during this tournament.  But there's a reason those games are exciting- they're rare and unexpected, even at this time of year.

Kansas is a a team that hauls in 4 and 5-star athletes with regularity and sends them off to the league just as quickly.  On this year's Jayhawk starting line-up, there are probably three future NBA players.  They've been ranked between 3 and 7 for the last 12 weeks or so.  The RPI likes them as much as humans- they landed at 6 at the end of the season.  And while rankings don't really matter, their #2 seeding puts them in exactly the place they should be this Spring; among the elite of the nation.

Our Boilers on the other hand struggled for much of the season to figure out who they were and how to play together.  This 4 month game of grab ass reaped a 10 seed.  Sure, our Boilers played their best ball in the last month, there's no question about that, but no one called Purdue elite in '11-'12.  All this means is that Purdue has nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Purdue's Captains might be holding all the cards

Some (myself included) might argue that Purdue is already playing with the house's money...and is already ahead.  Winning one game in the tourney (let alone two) is really a gift...and as a fan, I'm pretty pleased with my alma mater's basketball team already.  I'm positive that Matty isn't as pleased as I am...and his three Seniors are probably more motivated than they've been in the last four years to defy the odds; something they've already done a few times.

That said, Ryne, LewJack, Robbie and co. are sitting in the perfect place to sneak up on some people- hopefully they do just that to Kansas.  Tip-off is in just under 5 hours, at 8:40.