Can The '10-'11 Season Start Now, Please?

A pretty likable group...

The sun has risen just fine the past couple of mornings, and I'm still damn proud to be a Boilermaker. As mentioned on this site, it's never a good feeling when your season ends. And, really, there's only one way for it to end where you feel really, really good. And Purdue is closer to that than it's been in a while. The tournament effort to get to the Sweet 16 and then play Duke tighter than they were played to that point was significant (remember, this is a Duke team that was up 30 on UNC in the first half in their late-season matchup). As the clock wound down on Friday night, I found myself immediately feeling and saying, "I'm really proud of these guys."

Oh, but what might have been.

Never A Complete Unit

At the start of the season, a Sweet 16 appearance would have been viewed as a disappointment. We all know how high expectations were. The Boilers had a chance to almost come home for the Final Four, as they did in 1980, and this is all the more driven home now for Boilermakers as we get to watch Butler have those stories written about them. It's hard to have anything but good feelings for Butler, as their students and loyal fans deserve this as much as anyone, but I did say to Boilerdowd this weekend that I'm truly jealous of the Bulldogs. I can't imagine how good this feels for them today.

But getting back to the Boilers, one point that I think is very interesting to ponder is the "what could have been," not from the simple, obvious Final Four perspective, but from what was expected or counted on for this season.


For one thing, Sandi Marcius was expected to be another big body Coach Matty could count on to at least clog the lane a bit, grab some boards, commit some Zoubeks (another word for fouls) and simply spell JJ when Johnson was in foul trouble or just needed some rest. But Sandi broke his foot and it made no sense to burn his redshirt when word was that he wasn't ready.

But let's leave that one alone. How about the fact that the Boilers essentially had the rotation they expected to have for a total of seven games? Seven. And even then it wasn't at full strength, since I'm talking about the games where LewJack was just coming back. The preseason #6 team in the nation wound up not having their regular rotation for almost the entire season. This got obscured by the fact that the Boilers played inspired, focused ball and got out to that 14-0 start. However, many of us saw the need for Lewis Jackson to get back this year, as the team could not handle the press well at all, even from mediocre teams. They needed their PG back.

LewJack returned on January 28 versus Wisconsin, but only played 20 minutes in a game twice before February 24. On that day, Purdue started their game at Minnesota looking, honestly, like they'd figured it out. Jackson was back and was beginning to play significant minutes again, the Big 3 looked comfortable, Moore was on a nice steady run, etc. Things looked good. During that first half, B-dowd and I even commented on how solid they looked in nearly all facets -- something that could not have been said too many times this year up to that point. And then, of course, Rob's knee went, and his teammates looked like they'd seen their puppy get run over.

To their credit, as we all know, they pulled themselves together and went 6-3 (including that Minny game) without Rob. Nothing groundbreaking, but they learned to play without him and they showed resolve and commitment that made us all proud. I've not heard one fan say they felt like the Boilers folded the tent. And think about that, because it's significant.

Lewis Jackson was finally getting up to speed.....and Rob was gone.

We've often said that things have to line up for you to go to a Final Four. Butler had everyone playing their system perfectly (and you can now see why Matt Painter really wanted Gordon Hayward). MSU didn't have to beat anyone higher than a 4-seed. Duke had a bracket full of shorthanded, inexperienced teams to get through. Point is, it has to line up. You need some breaks. I'd say this isn't being a Purdue homer: Purdue got few breaks this year. In fact, the breaks truly went against them.

Was Progress Made?

Have the boys matured further? B-dowd and I discussed this last night and it's unfortunate to think that while they clearly are a good team, they weren't quite emotionally mature enough to handle some things this year. Nobody can fault their effort or, as mentioned, the Sweet 16 appearance. But the way they reacted to losing Rob in the immediate aftermath (curling up into the fetal position for a lot of the rest of the Minnesota game and all of the MSU game) was disconcerting. However, when you compare the way they began the 2008-2009 season, another season considered promising, they did indeed take strides.

In December 2008, we all know how poor the boys looked against Duke. We also all remember the 0-2 start in conference play. The Boilers opened this season solidly, taking down Tennessee in the Virgin Islands, coming back from down 16 in the second half against Alabama, and simply outclassing Wake and WVU at home. But the hiccups remain, including an 0-3 stretch in January, only putting up 44 against MSU at home (Rob or no Rob, that's ridiculous) and being simply embarrassed on a national scale in the Big Ten Tourney against Minnesota. The point? There's a lot of maturing still to be done.

"Help Is On The Way"

Someone on ESPN's cast of misfits said, in the wake of UNC getting absolutely dismantled by Duke at the end of the season, that "help is on the way" for Roy Williams. Not sure how many five-stars he needs to, you know, make the tournament, but it's kind of a silly statement. However, for the Boilers, help is indeed on the way in a number of forms, with the overall theme being depth.

For one, Sandi Marcius should be healthy and ready to bang next year. Patrick Bade will be a sophomore and hopefully will practice rebounding over the summer so he doesn't look like he thinks basketballs are live grenades. And coming to the mix is Travis Carroll, another center to give JJ some rest. You'll never want JaJuan in foul trouble or playing soft as he does from time to time, but if it happens at least Matty will have a multitude of options. And with this size, it will be rare that an opponent will have the definitive upper hand in the post.

Boilerdowd's lust for the Johnson boys is hard to describe. No, I'm being silly, but b-dowd is very excited about Terone and Anthony coming aboard next year, and he's right to be. Both four-star players (for what that's worth), these guys are difference-makers and the thinking here is Terone could (and maybe should) see some time in the starting lineup. He's a thick kid who can play the point or score the ball (hate that term, I sound like Hubert Davis).

Donnie Hale is a power forward coming on board without a scholarship as of right now. He agreed to come to Purdue over his other finalist, Xavier, with no guarantee of a schollie for next season. So unless someone goes pro or transfers, Donnie might be paying his own way for a little while. We'll see how this goes.

One More Year, JJ

Which leads us to a sidebar about going pro. According to Neubert, JJ hasn't ruled it out as of now. Which, I think we can agree, might be a bit silly. We think he'll be back, but if he was a

first round projected pick, we couldn't blame him for going.

However, NBA Draft Express doesn't have JaJuan projected as even a second round pick as of now. In fact, they have him as a second round pick in 2011. So he clearly has work to do. As Neubert puts it so well:

"When he gets the ball around the rim, he's got to be able to score or get fouled 90 percent of the time, rather than getting stripped or tied up."

More Reasons For Excitement About The Immediate Future

Getting back to next year, I know I was thrilled to see the minutes some of the younger guys got in the tournament. Ryne Smith developed some confidence and has now hit some big shots on the biggest stage possible. But even bigger to us was DJ Byrd's postseason. DJ was a DNP as recently as the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. Think about that. This is a guy who didn't have double-digit minutes from Dec 22 until the Big Ten Tournament.

He played a total of five minutes from Jan 31 until that Minnesota game in the BTT, including six DNPs. But then he came alive, having his two best offensive days since the first game of the season against CS Northridge, scoring 11 in the crushing against Minnesota and putting up 10 HUGE points (including 2 of 2 from three-land) against A&M.

DJ also played strong defense, never looked out of position or overwhelmed and was even barking at teammates on the floor -- in a good way. If you're looking for an intensity leader to replace CK3, we think you might have him in DJ. (And he needs to keep the intense haircut look; we love it.)

Thanks, But No Thanks, Media-Types

Purdue has the tenth-ranked recruiting class in the nation for 2010. Oh, but only fourth in the Big Ten. Yeah, you read that right. So let's shut your pie-holes, national media, about what the Big Ten lacks. It's pretty effing rugged.

In addition, several scribes were venturing well into douchey territory and seemed to be working hard at alienating college basketball fans. A very smart move when you're a.....college basketball writer. Wait, what?

One of these clowns is Gary Parrish, of whom there is not a single photo in existence where he doesn't look like a complete buffoon. He's now saying the Boilers are going to the Final Four next year, but Gary felt the Boilers barely deserved a top 20 ranking as the season wound down -- not because they were losing games (they weren't), but because he felt Rob Hummel being out made them...a below-average team.... I guess? Hard to understand. We emailed him politely and were given the condescending pat-on-the-head treatment. He's one of the many who can kiss off next year -- as stated before, we don't want your positive remarks, either. You've denigraded Purdue enough that we don't care anymore. You're a lost cause. We know Purdue's not as sexy as slimy Calipari's Cats, and that's fine. We like our program clean.

Keep It Up, Students

There have been periods in Purdue sports history of which we're not especially proud, when students seem to not care at all. While it's perfectly fine to not be a sports fan, it still grates on us because we take this stuff way too serious, by our own admission. But seeing the Paint Crew and their massive numbers honoring the team as often as they do is simply wonderful for two old guys like us.

Camping out in the cold, being creatively supportive during games, singling out guys to thank as the season winds down, road tripping through the night on buses.... we can't possibly name all the ways in which we think the students do an amazing job acting as the 6th man and doing us alums proud. You guys are doing great things and you'll look back fondly on this time in your lives. Keep doing it.

Want proof of how awesome the fans/students are? Here they are at the airport at 2 AM on a cold February night welcoming the Boilers home from Minnesota, where the season took a crushing turn.



That video really gets me. The guys had won a hard-fought game and lost Rob for the season. We didn't know it for sure at that moment but it didn't look good. And yet the screaming for the guys and the chanting for Rob is just terrific. Seeing that smile that Hummel can't conceal is all part of the greatness of it.

Yes, we're going to focus on football in the very near future.... but we keep saying we wish next basketball season could start in maybe a week. Eight months can't pass fast enough.

Choo-choo.

Have The Players Written Off The Final Four?

With everyone passing around the article in the Indy Star today where Smooge and JJ confirm they're most likely coming back next year, one particular quote jumped out at me. It was from JJ and it is:

"That's what it looks like right now for me, coming back to school," Johnson said. "I still have a lot of things to accomplish, a Big Ten championship, a Final Four. There are a lot of things I still want to do in college."

Whoa. My next question would have been, "Have you written off a trip to the Final Four this year?"

Maybe I'm being hypersensitive, but that's what that sounds like. And I'm not ready to throw in the towel. I know some of you are (and that disappoints me greatly), but this season is not over. I know it just got a whole lot harder. But these guys need to believe in themselves and they need all of us to continue to believe in them. Just imagine how a deep tourney run would feel now. Most of the media didn't believe Purdue was legit before Rob's knee injury -- and we all know they're now officially left for dead.

All things considered, I'd rather this happened when it did than, say, in the last game of the Big Ten Tournament or something like that. This week provides two of the Big Ten's crappiest teams to try things out on and work on new schemes. The Big Ten Tourney is pretty meaningless, honestly, and so there's another couple of games to work on things. And then, assuming you maintain a 2-seed for the big tourney (as Leprechaun Lunardi currently projects), you play a 15 seed to start that off.

If Matty and the boys can't figure out a decent formula to win with the talent that remains healthy in those five games, then there might be a deeper problem.

Keep the faith. It is not effing over.

Derailed?

Is the train off the tracks? Hold on a second...

If you're reading this, then you probably already know. And if not.... where the hell have you been?? It's anarchy! Blood running through the streets! Fire and brimstone hailing from the sky!! Dogs and cats..... LIVING TOGETHER!! Mass hysteria!

Alright, have we all calmed down a bit?

We know that Rob Hummel is done for the year and likely the beginning of next year. But he's going to be okay. He's a smart kid, he's a hard worker, and he's come back from fractured vertebrae. His future is actually in fine shape if he rehabs as he should and none of us have any reason to believe he won't.

But let's get back to being selfish and ask what this means for this season.

There seem to be two camps as of right now. In one, there are people who basically feel the season is essentially over. They're not quitting as fans, mind you, but they just feel destroyed and punched in the gut and think that advancing a round or two is all we can hope for.

The other camp is the group that seems to be pulling themselves up by the bootstraps and saying, "No, we're good. We will persevere!" But you almost feel like these people are trying to convince themselves.

Let's state it clearly here -- this is a bad blow, yes, but the season is not ruined. We assure you. The Boiled Sports guarantee (it's worth so very much).

Losing Rob Hummel is a huge blow to this team. However, his injury and absence can be dealt with and this team still can still win the Big Ten and make the deep NCAA tourney run we all want.

What does it mean for playing time, starting spots and expectations? Glad you asked.

Playing Time

Mr. Bade, get limbered up, son. Because you're going to need to give us some minutes. No, we can't count on young Bade to replace Rob Hummel, but as Boilerdowd said on our show last night, Bade is the one who most resembles Hummel in the physical sense. His length is similar, he can do some of the curling and he can rebound. If Bade gives us 8-10 minutes a game of this and stops looking like a scared kitten, that's a nice start.

Keaton Grant is alive. We've seen it the past few games and we saw an incredibly promising sign last night. KG hit three yooooge shots late in last night's game, including the game-winning with seven seconds left. And if you watch the replay, you see the level of confidence with which he fired that shot. This very well may be the KG of old, or at least a reasonable facsimile of him.

LewJack and Barlow should see their minutes increase as well, which does not worry us one bit.

Starting Spots

How monumentally fortunate are we that Keaton Grant was bounced from the starting lineup in favor of Kelsey Barlow earlier this season? Had that not happened, Barlow would not have the experience or confidence he now has. Yes, it's terrible to lose Rob Hummel out of the starting lineup. But when you're able to take a senior off the bench who is used to starting (KG) and plug him back into the starting lineup, well, that's about as good a scenario as you could ask for, right?

Replacing a junior leader with a senior leader with skills is not a bad thing. In addition, it might be time to have LewJack start the games and use Kelsey off the bench. Your starting five would then look like this:

Johnson (Jr), Moore (Jr), Kramer (Sr), Grant (Sr), Jackson (So)

I'll go to battle with that starting lineup any time.

Expectations

Do we need 20 ppg from Keaton? No, we do not. If we can get 10-15 out of him consistently, that would go a long, LONG way to helping fill the void. Lewis Jackson is ready and is all the way back. JJ is capable of taking over games, as we have seen, and is truly indispensable. And E'Twaun Moore will step up his game to whatever level the Boilermakers need. I have never been so confident in a guy's ability to respond as I am in Smooge's.

Chris Kramer has to play defense as Chris Kramer can. The guys need to stay out of foul trouble and understand they have a slightly shorter bench. Is this the kind of group that can understand this and rise to the occasion? I think so, and I say that without hesitation.

Are any of these things that I have put forth crazytalk? Am I asking JJ to score 30 a game? Are we talking about Smooge shooting the lights out all the time? No.

Here's a big one: Are we asking guys to do things they have never done before?

No, we are not.

So when you begin to believe again (if you haven't already), do so with confidence. No, losing the Ostrich is not a good thing and we'd never pretend it was. But he's going to be present and spurring these guys on. And we have Coach Matty who knows how to prepare his guys. They will not look shell-shocked any longer on Sunday. And if they beat Michigan State, the train is fully back on the tracks again.

Keep the faith, everyone.

Here We Go Again...

Hummel's back flares up again...definitely not good, but not surprising either. Hopefully, Painter has enough faith in Buckets now to play him against IU- he should be able to keep up with Roth and help the rotation.

Addendum-
Rumors now swirling that the Ostrich might be out for the season; that stings...But I'd rather have him out for the season than out for a career.

Get well, Robbie! (and get all-the-way-healthy, this time)

I wouldn't be surprised to see the rest of the team come out very flat on Saturday with this announcement coming so late.

In Trouble

Kramer, coming off of re-setting surgery earlier this week, fought valiantly on defense...and Johnson and Jackson both tried to do what they could to keep it close offensively, but Illinois really had this game under control from early in the contest.

Purdue's defense simply looked perplexed and over-matched as Illinois ran pick-and-rolls over and over and Purdue failed to rotate. In fact, if it wasn't for Kramer's peskiness, this one might have been even worse. The Illini didn't shoot exceptionally well (44.6%) and even lost the rebounding battle (34-31)...but Purdue's poor shooting, and awful 3-point shooting, was too much to overcome.

Paging Mr. Grant and Mr. Moore!!
For the second game in a row, Smooge did not score double-digits...and KG joined him in an effort of futility by scoring only four points. Here are their lines:

KG
4pts (1-6)/3reb/1stl/1To
Smooge
6pts (2-9)/5reb/0stl/1To

This is the problem...and part of it can be blamed on fatigue since our Boilers are so shallow. But both of these guys were pretty reliable last season...conversely, this season, E'Twaun has been inconsistent at best, and Grant has been almost non-existent (offensively). Hummel's injury hurts, but the loss of these two has dogged our Boilers in more than a handful of games.

Big Concerns
Sorry gents...and while I appreciate your optimism, those that tried to tell me Purdue had a chance a BT title, might now see what I was seeing after the Buckeye loss...Our Alma Mater is in trouble. In fact, I only count 3-4 more likely wins as things look right now...everything else is either a toss-up or unlikely. A 21-win record going into the Big Ten tourney would probably yield Purdue an 8-12 seed in the dance...especially with what looks to be a pretty lousy second-half to the BT schedule.

I'm not saying the season's over, but our Boilers just got whipped by an OK Illinois team; this surely isn't a good sign.

Lundquist
CBS' Vern Lundquist called Smooge Keaton Moore for much of the game. Do you think CBS can afford a print out that shows every player's name in the line-up?

With Hummel's situation, it might be time for a change

Robbie Hummel's back has been bothering him most of the season...but we didn't know until just recently that the back problem is a cracked vertebrae in his lower back. Watching him versus Michigan, you could see that it was little more than will that was keeping him walking, let alone playing basketball.

But now, according to the J&C, Hummel and Painter might be addressing the back problem in a much more cautious manner. With Hummel out of every other contest, might it be time for a change in tactic for Painter's team?

What I'm referring to is not a major change, just a shift in playing time. I believe this shift will help everyone involved and might lay a foundation for next season. What I think needs to happen is we need to see Ryne Smith/Bobby Riddell for at least 6 minutes/game. Not a ton of playing time, but these minutes might take the added strain off of Kramer, Jackson and Grant. Furthermore, we simply must see more production from Green and/or Calasan. Both of these players have shown at times that they are more than capable of playing a sizeable amount of minutes, but what Painter really needs from both is not points, but rebounds and solid defense. It seems Johnson has become a bit of a weapon offensively...and a shift to using the twin towers a bit more might help Purdue late in the game as well...as clearly, our Boilers' lack of depth has killed them time and time again this season. A Big Ten team (especially one that plays Purdue's style of defense) needs AT LEAST 8 players in its rotation as the physical nature of this conference's games are too much for to spread out over 2 subs.

I also think it might be imperative to employ these substitutions even during the games that Hummel's playing. During the Michigan game, he was forced to play too many minutes...the lingering effects of this seem to last days.

One thing was very clear last night- poor shot selection sets up the opponent for easy buckets...so smart offensive sets become an aspect of Purdue's defense, if each player can effectively play his role, Purdue might still finish in the top-3 in the conference and get a solid seed for the NCAA tournament. But what are those roles? At times it seems even the players don't understand what's needed from on the offensive side of the court. Purdue must re-learn how to play without relying on Hummel night-in, night-out; undoubtedly, this will be a tough task for Painter's team as March fast approaches.