By the Numbers: Northwestern Analysis, Iowa Forecast

You may have noticed the basketball-like substance on the floor of Mackey Arena Sunday. You may also have noticed that it came from the Good Guys and not the valiant opposition ... in no small part because a) Painter seems to be caring less about results and more about lessons, which strangely leads to better results sometimes, and b) Northwestern apparently angered the basketball gods by nearly making the tournament last year, so every contributing senior has been struck down in response; only Reggie Hearn has recovered.

kenpom had this as a Purdue win going into the game, and it played out basically as a more extreme version of what the numbers would have suggested.

That's not supposed to be
close to even, Wildcats.

• Rebounding. Northwestern is actually above-average in height – their effective height is +2.5, 37th in the country – but that's related more to defense than anything else. Since Jared Swopshire went down for the season against Iowa, they've been left with short players and young players: the tallest, 7'0" Alex Olah, posts just a 6.3 OR% and 15.0 DR%. For context, in slightly fewer minutes, 6'5" Rapheal Davis has 6.8% and 15.1% respectively. (Translation: tall Wildcat needs practice.)
  Accordingly, Purdue destroyed Northwestern on the boards, 48-23*, with a whopping 48.3 OR% (see graphic; 5 of those 14 were team boards, which I suspect means some Wildcat knocked them out of bounds or fouled). Davis had 1 OR and 6 DR for Purdue; Olah had 2 OR and 0 DR. Purdue also posted an 81.0 DR%. (Translation: Purdue with the rebound.)
• Defense. Height correlates with defense in several areas, but it doesn't cause better defense, and Northwestern has shown that in Big Ten play, dropping to dead last in defensive efficiency (111.0). Yes, this comes from things like losing by 15 to Nebraska and by 28(!!) to Wisconsin, both slow-tempo teams like the 'Cats.
  In Evanston, Purdue was "held" to just 1 point per possession; this time they posted 1.16 PPP, and yes, they scored a bit over 16% more points than in the first meeting. Purdue shot .556 from two and .467 from three. (In related news, Ronnie Johnson did not attempt a three.) This is not good if you are on defense. If Purdue had hit their free throws (A.J.?), it probably would have been a 40-point game.
• Offense. Yes, the Wildcats forced 15 turnovers for a 23.4 TO%, well over Purdue's conference average of 19.0%, but they simply couldn't convert them ... shooting .316(!!!) from two will do that to you. Add in .222 from three and a Boiler-like .583 from the line, and you get a blowout loss: fewer possessions (thanks to the 19.0 OR%) and few conversions. Hearn: 3-10, 0-1 from three, 8 points in 30 minutes.

Fortunately for Northwestern, Penn State fills the gap between impending blowouts at the hands of Ohio State (home) and Michigan State (away). Like Purdue, Northwestern must steal one of those games to have a fighting chance at .500; unlike Purdue, they now seem completely incapable of doing so.

The win stopped a three-game slide that dropped Purdue down to 97th; right now they're 78th, where they were right before the first Northwestern game. The Iowa game still looks like you'd expect if a tournament-bound** team were hosting a sub-.500 team: 80-20 for Iowa. Things to watch for if Purdue's going to pull this one off:

More shots for the guy
on the far right, plz.

• Iowa's transition game. The Hawkeyes are 8th in offensive efficiency in Big Ten play (100.4), 10th in eFG (44.2%), and 11th in 3P% (28.6). Get back on defense, make them run what half-court options they have, especially if they go to Josh Oglesby (32-121 from three, .264; his eFG is 38.5%, which is stat-speak for "bad"). Purdue's two-point defense (44.3%) is third in the conference; there shouldn't be many good options when the defense gets back.
• Fouls. Iowa leads the conference at .732 from the line. They shot .867 against Nebraska ... but only had 15 attempts on 13 Cornhusker fouls. Purdue allowed 27 FTA in the overtime win in Mackey; best not to repeat that performance if possible.
  Inside fouls were a problem in the first meeting: AJ fouled out in 30 minutes and Travis Carroll had 3 fouls in 7 minutes. Aside from maybe Adam Woodbury (20-38, .526), no Hawkeye is really a liability at the line. Don't commit cheap fouls.
• Shot selection. Purdue shot just .423 from two in Mackey; Iowa's in-conference defensive efficiency is much better than Northwestern's, and in the road games against teams on either side of Iowa, Purdue shot .426 against Michigan State and .438 against Michigan. It'll be as important as ever that players move without the ball on offense: poor shots generally don't lead to points in this situation.

kenpom predicts a 71-62 win for Iowa; a Purdue win would be more of a confidence booster than anything else (an NIT bid probably requires another regular-season win plus a first-round BTT win) and pretty much forces Iowa to win the BTT to make the NCAA field.

* EsPN's numbers do not include team rebounds, which is silly because they do count.
** Yes, Iowa's not currently even on the bubble. Yes, losing to Nebraska is bad. However, 8 of their 10 losses are to solid teams (Wichita State's righted themselves and look to be in good shape; VT is Iowa's other bad loss), and a first-round BTT win would likely give Iowa 20. 8-10 in this conference should be enough to get them in.

A Tale of Two Tournaments: Boilers Underwhelm

The Schreiber-led Boilers had high hopes coming into the NCAA tourney- First 40-win season, First B1G title in over 100 years, First NCAA tourney since '87, First B1G POY ever...lots of firsts, lots unfamiliarity.  And when the chips were down, honestly, this team looked like they weren't quite ready for primetime...But a team out of the MAC, the hottest team in college baseball, answered the bell...fought through adversity and ran through the Purdue-hosted Gary regional without having to play the extra game.

But, didn't this plot feel eerily similar to something much closer to our hearts at BS? It did to me.

Before I go any further, let me give some background.

I know many of you reading have a hard time believing that my words have any credence. Afterall, I'm a self-admitted baseball loather.  In the summer, DVDs of old Purdue football victories, the occasional golf major and IndyCar races scratch my itch for sports excitement.  I typically wait until September to care about baseball.  But, I don't dislike baseball because I know nothing about it.

I played the game from the time I was 7 through 17.  I played Babe Ruth, where I was actually pretty good, played high school ball and coached Little League for 5 seasons.  I loved playing the game...and coaching as well...just the watching makes me sleepy.

That said, I went all fairweather for the Boilers and watched as much late-season action as BTN would bring to me...And here's what I saw- a team that didn't pitch great, made quite a few errors in the field and, in the clutch, simply couldn't get the job done.  Hell, how many stranded runners did we see in the final two games of the season alone?

Back to my original point- we've been through this before.

Back in '11, Smooge and JJ were two of the best players in the conference, if not the nation.  Much like these Baseball Boilers, accolades were handed out on a weekly basis as those Boilers came up with big wins, on big stages against big competition.  Same goes for Schreiber's bunch this year.  When they needed hits, they found them. The dramatic comeback v. UCLA and the big wins v. MSU when they needed them come to mind right away.

Purdue's 2012 baseball team, like the 2011 basketball team was one of the best in the nation...and the post-season flame-outs don't change that fact. Both teams were highly-ranked and both played on extremely-high levels.  BUT, both teams also backed their way out of the regular seasons v. Iowa...lowly, hated rival, Iowa.  The baseball and basketball Hawkeyes aren't coached by an icon like Ferentz...and their records show it.  So losing to either of these teams, at home or in Iowa is kind of inexcusable for the cream of the conference.

Now, one big difference between these two teams is that the baseball Boilers won the B1G tournament...and did it while going through IU. But, IU's baseball team isn't like the hardwood Hoosiers.  That said, winning the B1G tournament for this year's Boilers was a great accomplishment...but I don't think the players thought of that as their end goal.

So when they got the #1 seed in their regional, I'm pretty sure they thought there was more meat on the bone for this season...and it looked like there might be after the first game v. Valpo.  Granted, Valpo played a pretty horrible game, errors mounted, helped Purdue move runners and stay alive in innings that were dead...and the Boilers advanced easily.

Similarly, Matty's squad played a low seed, St. Peter's in their opening round of the tournament in 2011...and St. Peter's looked shocked and overwhelmed by Purdue's ability...and they were swamped...So Purdue would move on.  It looked like Purdue would play college basketball blueblood, Georgetown in the next round.  G'Town, had been ranked as high as top-10 earlier that season...but finished their BE schedule with a whisper and received the 6 seed in Purdue's bracket.

Similarly, Kentucky was a highly-ranked team for most of the season in 2012...but wasn't given the privilege of hosting the regional this year.  But the Wildcats seemed to be Purdue's main hurdle to making the Super Regional.  But Kent State had other ideas...and they moved Kentucky to the loser's bracket just as VCU had cleared the Hoyas out of Matty's squad's way a year earlier.

So it was set.  Purdue v. Kent State...Purdue v. VCU...and our Boilers would be playing with the nation's best and in a conversation that everyone thought they belonged in to begin with.

But, VCU overwhelmed a sluggish Purdue defense and played with more energy than a team that had been defined by hustle and effort.  Similarly, Kent State, peppered the struggling Boilers with hit after hit...Purdue's pitching that had been strong and well-coached all season, was overwhelmed as their ace was kept in the game a few pitches too long.  The strength that had defined both teams during the regular season was no where to be found...and Boiler fans in the United Center and Gary's Steelyard alike were both left cursing as they watched the games slip away.

VCU went on to make an improbably trip to the final four...and the fuel to their confidence might have been beating the mighty Boilers.  Kent State earned its way out of the regional by knocking off two of the nation's best...who knows when their run will end. But the point is, Purdue's is over.

I won't go as far as to say the regular seasons don't matter.  Both teams provided a very enjoyable run for the fans as they won, won and won some more.  But, when the chips were down, neither team could step up.

A few years ago, my brother who is a fellow Purdue alum pointed something out to me- You really can't blame the media for giving Purdue no respect.  Time and again, very good Purdue teams in football, basketball and now baseball have taken great regular season success only to crap the bed in the post-season.

We can talk about key injuries...whether it's Glenn Robinson's back in '94 or Rob Hummel's knee in '11...and those factors were important. We can site valiant efforts in a loss like Hummel's herculean game v. Kansas or Shawn Phillips super-human defensive effort v. Georgia in 2004...but both ended in heartbreak.  Facts are facts...so until Purdue can break through and win a January 1 bowl (or better), get into the Final Four or get to Omaha, it's tough to argue that our Boilers are anything other than a regular season monster and a post-season pansy.

I don't like this any more than anyone reading this...in fact it makes me a little sick in my stomach when I think about how some of these truly great teams never got to hoist the trophy at the very end of the season...but right now, things are what they are...and there's only one way to change the future.

Just win.

Mail call!

It's mailbag time here at BS. Just wanted to share a couple because they're awesome.

First up, Matt from Des Moines, Iowa checks in (good to see they have Internet in Iowa now).

I'm an '07 grad living and working in Des Moines. Being continuously surrounded by iowa fans makes me feel like each day I'm reliving the scene from 'Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade" where the Jones boys sneak into the Nazi rally and Sr. says to Jr. "We're strangers in an unholy land."

Seriously, one of the most unknown things about the Big Ten is how freaking arrogant and aggressive most iowa fans are. They are constantly out to put down anyone from any other school. They act like they have this amazing football team, when really they have Kirk Ferentz getting paid millions of dollars to manage a work-release program for the local jail. I can't stand it.

Charlie Weis eats babies. Go Boilers!

You're right, I never really thought about that. It's cute that Iowa fans think their team is good. It's also telling that nobody outside of Iowa is aware of this and the reason, of course, is that everyone outside of Iowa realizes Iowa isn't a football powerhouse. Oh, and Matt, Charlie Weis eats babies? Seriously? Come on, everyone knows... Charlie Weis eats everything.

Next up is Kristin who writes:

Please tell me someone somewhere has called for the end of the "Shout" tradition between the 3rd and 4th quarters. You know, the time when very rarely is there anything to shout about? Just offering that up as a topic of discussion. I literally leave the stands every game near the end of the third just so I don't have to endure the horror that is "Shout". Maybe no one else is quite as passionate about it. But while we are talking change I can hope for it's demise.

So we're not the only ones complaining about Shout. Hear that, Ross-Ade music people?

BS Reader Poll -- Game 11

By game 11, Purdue will be in the midst of a stretch where four out of six games are on the road. For a team with a history of fading down the stretch, road games in the Big Ten are not exactly a cure for this problem. But this is the price to pay for a four-out-of-the-first-five-at-home start. To be honest, I’d much rather have the glut of home games down the stretch. But that’s me.

Anyway, on November 15, the Boilermakers travel to Kinnick Stadium to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Yet another team that is always a mystery. They can look like powerhouses at times and weak sisters at other times. Last year, Purdue played a mediocre game at home (in which all three BS staffers attended) and yet still won 30-6. Purdue wasn’t dominant so much as Iowa was atrocious. Nobody can reasonably expect them to be that inept again, especially at their house. Or can they? What do you think? Vote it up.

Game 11
November 15, 2008
Purdue at Iowa
OTT Preview




Vote on other games!

Quit Before They Can Fire Your Ass, Steve

Nice proactive move by Steve Alford over at Iowa. Deadspin and others are reporting that he's going to bolt from Big Ten Iowa to coach... wait for it... at Mountain West New Mexico.

Fact is, Alford's never done anything at Iowa to suggest he's the quality of coach that everyone seems to want him to be. Yet he has that air of entitlement, like all the writers assembled in the press room are but a mere annoyance. Sort of like his mentor, the man who may have pooped in his locked or something... Bob Knight.

I loved the quote from the story that says that Alford was more interested in being at a school that was not "football-first." So many jokes to make there; Deadspin chose to point out that he could have just gone to Indiana if he wanted a school with a football-last situation. But more to the point, what has Iowa football done in recent years that has pushed the basketball program there so far down the ladder of importance? Neither program is winning anything and, in reality, they're both underachieving constantly.

If Alford has any success at New Mexico and Kelvin Sampson staggers at IU, there is absolutely no doubt that Alford will be IU's head coach one day. And this way, he won't be jumping from one Big Ten school to another.

Enjoy the stopover in mediocre-land, Lobos.

YES

Boilers Trounce Hawkeyes

The Purdue Boilermakers stamped their ticket to the big dance with a dominating 74-55 victory over the Iowa Hawkeyes in the 4/5 seed quarterfinal matchup in the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago today.

Carl Landry led the Boilers, as he's been stoicly doing all season, with twenty points and 11 boards. Carl looked like he wasn't going to give the Hawkeyes a chance to hang around in this game and the Hawkeyes did indeed look overmatched and out of sorts.

Truth is, this Iowa squad has some considerable talent but never seemed to be able to string together consistent outings. Chalk it up to the overrated Steve Alford, who has yet to do anything significant at Iowa, or credit it to the up-and-coming Matt Painter-led Purdue squad. Sure, the Boilers have no inside presence to speak of, but if Landry plays this way in future games this month, the Boilers can hang with almost anybody.

Next up for Purdue is the top-ranked team in the country, Ohio State, in tomorrow's semifinal matchup.

As for the NCAA Tourney, ESPN now has Purdue in the tournament as an 11-seed and facing Virginia, of all teams, a team they beat earlier this season. Let me just say now that there is absolutely ZERO chance of Purdue playing a team they've already played this year in the first round of the NCAA tournament. It just doesn't happen.

But it's irrelevant. The Boilers are going and that's what matters.

And it feels gooooooood.