By the Numbers: Northwestern Analysis, Iowa Forecast

You may have noticed the basketball-like substance on the floor of Mackey Arena Sunday. You may also have noticed that it came from the Good Guys and not the valiant opposition ... in no small part because a) Painter seems to be caring less about results and more about lessons, which strangely leads to better results sometimes, and b) Northwestern apparently angered the basketball gods by nearly making the tournament last year, so every contributing senior has been struck down in response; only Reggie Hearn has recovered.

kenpom had this as a Purdue win going into the game, and it played out basically as a more extreme version of what the numbers would have suggested.

That's not supposed to be
close to even, Wildcats.

• Rebounding. Northwestern is actually above-average in height – their effective height is +2.5, 37th in the country – but that's related more to defense than anything else. Since Jared Swopshire went down for the season against Iowa, they've been left with short players and young players: the tallest, 7'0" Alex Olah, posts just a 6.3 OR% and 15.0 DR%. For context, in slightly fewer minutes, 6'5" Rapheal Davis has 6.8% and 15.1% respectively. (Translation: tall Wildcat needs practice.)
  Accordingly, Purdue destroyed Northwestern on the boards, 48-23*, with a whopping 48.3 OR% (see graphic; 5 of those 14 were team boards, which I suspect means some Wildcat knocked them out of bounds or fouled). Davis had 1 OR and 6 DR for Purdue; Olah had 2 OR and 0 DR. Purdue also posted an 81.0 DR%. (Translation: Purdue with the rebound.)
• Defense. Height correlates with defense in several areas, but it doesn't cause better defense, and Northwestern has shown that in Big Ten play, dropping to dead last in defensive efficiency (111.0). Yes, this comes from things like losing by 15 to Nebraska and by 28(!!) to Wisconsin, both slow-tempo teams like the 'Cats.
  In Evanston, Purdue was "held" to just 1 point per possession; this time they posted 1.16 PPP, and yes, they scored a bit over 16% more points than in the first meeting. Purdue shot .556 from two and .467 from three. (In related news, Ronnie Johnson did not attempt a three.) This is not good if you are on defense. If Purdue had hit their free throws (A.J.?), it probably would have been a 40-point game.
• Offense. Yes, the Wildcats forced 15 turnovers for a 23.4 TO%, well over Purdue's conference average of 19.0%, but they simply couldn't convert them ... shooting .316(!!!) from two will do that to you. Add in .222 from three and a Boiler-like .583 from the line, and you get a blowout loss: fewer possessions (thanks to the 19.0 OR%) and few conversions. Hearn: 3-10, 0-1 from three, 8 points in 30 minutes.

Fortunately for Northwestern, Penn State fills the gap between impending blowouts at the hands of Ohio State (home) and Michigan State (away). Like Purdue, Northwestern must steal one of those games to have a fighting chance at .500; unlike Purdue, they now seem completely incapable of doing so.

The win stopped a three-game slide that dropped Purdue down to 97th; right now they're 78th, where they were right before the first Northwestern game. The Iowa game still looks like you'd expect if a tournament-bound** team were hosting a sub-.500 team: 80-20 for Iowa. Things to watch for if Purdue's going to pull this one off:

More shots for the guy
on the far right, plz.

• Iowa's transition game. The Hawkeyes are 8th in offensive efficiency in Big Ten play (100.4), 10th in eFG (44.2%), and 11th in 3P% (28.6). Get back on defense, make them run what half-court options they have, especially if they go to Josh Oglesby (32-121 from three, .264; his eFG is 38.5%, which is stat-speak for "bad"). Purdue's two-point defense (44.3%) is third in the conference; there shouldn't be many good options when the defense gets back.
• Fouls. Iowa leads the conference at .732 from the line. They shot .867 against Nebraska ... but only had 15 attempts on 13 Cornhusker fouls. Purdue allowed 27 FTA in the overtime win in Mackey; best not to repeat that performance if possible.
  Inside fouls were a problem in the first meeting: AJ fouled out in 30 minutes and Travis Carroll had 3 fouls in 7 minutes. Aside from maybe Adam Woodbury (20-38, .526), no Hawkeye is really a liability at the line. Don't commit cheap fouls.
• Shot selection. Purdue shot just .423 from two in Mackey; Iowa's in-conference defensive efficiency is much better than Northwestern's, and in the road games against teams on either side of Iowa, Purdue shot .426 against Michigan State and .438 against Michigan. It'll be as important as ever that players move without the ball on offense: poor shots generally don't lead to points in this situation.

kenpom predicts a 71-62 win for Iowa; a Purdue win would be more of a confidence booster than anything else (an NIT bid probably requires another regular-season win plus a first-round BTT win) and pretty much forces Iowa to win the BTT to make the NCAA field.

* EsPN's numbers do not include team rebounds, which is silly because they do count.
** Yes, Iowa's not currently even on the bubble. Yes, losing to Nebraska is bad. However, 8 of their 10 losses are to solid teams (Wichita State's righted themselves and look to be in good shape; VT is Iowa's other bad loss), and a first-round BTT win would likely give Iowa 20. 8-10 in this conference should be enough to get them in.

Hawkeye Letdown?

So, did that headline get your attention? Good...now that you're here, you can read what we think will happen at Iowa as our Boilers make one of their longest in-conference roadies.

J Says:
The good news is I am not as cranky or miserable about our football program as I was a few weeks ago... and I don't think I'm the only one who now sees some Hope (pun intended, biotches) for next year and beyond. Could it be a similar mold to Matt(y) Painter's success? I think it COULD be. Long way to go, though.

The bad news is that we're still not very good this season. Once again, like pretty much every week, I would not be at all shocked if the Boilermakers won this game. Iowa just had a world-beater game and there's the definite possibility of a letdown -- especially by a mediocre team like Iowa. Problem is, that while they're mediocre, we're poor. Big Ten football, feel the excitement.

UM was terrible and Siller went wild. MSU is pretty good and Siller was contained. I'd say Iowa is somewhere in the middle and I think we'll see a performance somewhere in the middle. That's the thing about the Big Ten this year... it's fairly predictable.

Of course, Painter might play, too, so it's hard to predict much about a team going no where with nothing to play for and an uncertain QB situation.

However, they're also on the road, so whatever little pride they have left can't be all that much and it's not even in front of the home crowd. Senior Day will be different, I think. But sadly, not this Saturday.

Children of the Corn: 27

Makers of Boilers: 16

Tim Says:
I predict that the game will be tied at 17 with 3 seconds left in the game. Purdue has the ball at the 30 yard line on the wrong side of the 50. Siller started, but now they bring in Curtis Painter because Tiller feels he has a stronger arm. The play is a Hail Mary. Five wide outs to the right side. The protection is good. The throw is in the air. It's got the distance. 70 yards in the air! It's deflected... juggled... picked off! The Iowa defender is running at the 10. At the 20. A key block. He's at the 50. He could... go... all... the... way. Touchdown. Iowa wins!

Iowa - 23
Purdue - 17

boilerdowd Says:
Here's the deal, the basketball team opens up tonight, and I'm pretty focused on basketball now. I won't even get to watch this game as I have to go to a wedding in Chicago (which I'm not a fan of to begin with). But, I owe you more than just mailing it in.

This Iowa team is reminiscent of the Purdue teams from the early-00s. They've lost four games, but by a total of 12 points...and the teams that beat them have all been ranked at least some time during this season. Kinnick has been a scary place for Tiller and Company...nightmares of Dallas Clark pop into my head when I think of it...plus, some of the worst games during Tiller's tenure have occurred on the road in '08 (with the exception of aOSU).

I don't think think this offense is going to figure it out this weekend and I don't the Iowa will let down since it's Senior Day and they need wins to insure that they'll go to a respectable bowl.

Iowa 28
Purdue 10

Last-Minute Predictions

I had a long meeting out of town and couldn't give my normal amount of attention to our weekly game prediction (yes, I actually have a job). Here are the predictions for this week's contest as the Hawkeyes travel to God's Country to play our skidding Boilers.

Tim says:

Reasons for concern: Iowa has played two of their four toughest opponents in games decided by 4 points or less, going 1-1 in those two games. Purdue doesn't do well in close games.

Reasons for optimism: If the Purdue offense can get on track, they can definitely put up some points on Iowa. Iowa would cannot keep up with Purdue's offense (assuming we don't get the OSU, UM offense on Saturday.) Iowa comes in with some defensive injuries, so that could help Purdue.

This game really comes down to two Jekyll and Hyde teams. Which Iowa team will show up? Which Purdue team will show up?

Needless to say, if we get the OSU version of Purdue combined with the Illinois version of Iowa, Purdue will lose.

I don't think that's likely though. I think Purdue will get into gear early, and stay there offensively for the whole game. I'm expecting at least 30 points, possibly 40. If the Purdue defense can play a solid game for all 4 quarters, I still think they'll give up in the neighborhood of 17-24 points, but it won't matter.

Purdue 38
Iowa 21

J says:

I'm tired of all my "if this happens..." kinds of predictions. "If the coaching staff is prepared," "if Painter plays well," "if Bryant doesn't fumble," "if boilerdowd will kiss me for a dollar...." Too many "ifs." This week it's time to show what we're made of. A loss here kills this season completely, at least for me. We MUST beat Iowa. This team is a perennial underachiever and already lost to IU this year. We are a better squad with at least as much talent playing at home, and coming off of two difficult losses. If we can't be up and ready for this game, we don't deserve another victory this year. I am tempted to predict a loss actually, because I am so used to being a Purdue fan. Iowa has owned us in recent years, yet I will give our team the benefit of the doubt one last time. If it's a loss, it'll be of the 31-7 variety. If it's a win, I think we could be up 21-0 in the first quarter. That's just how inconsistent this year's squad is. But since it's time to sack up and make a prediction, I'll go this way:

Purdue 31
Iowa 21

Boilerdowd says:

These aren't the type of games that Tiller-coached teams typically lose...Sub-.500 team, at home when Purdue's favored.

But, in recent seasons, my Boilers have made it a habit of losing 3-6 games in a row beginning in October. Well, the bleeding stops Saturday and some of the Purdue faithful will leave Ross-Ade smiling and satisfied (that's what she said).

I look for Painter to continue his streak versus sub-.500 teams and look impressive once again. While Iowa's defense has been impressive, it has not been great versus good offensive units. I don't know if I'd call Purdue's offense good, anymore, but against lesser competition, they usually get the job done. Boilers become bowl eligible once again.

Purdue 36
Iowa 17