By the Numbers: Memory Lane

Guess Iowa decided they were done, eh?

In 1986, I was a freshman at Purdue. My first year as a Purdue fan ended with the #6 Boilers playing a road game at #11 LSU ... neutral courts, ha ha. (Sure, LSU made the Final Four that year, and they had to beat Georgia Tech in Atlanta ... but still.) I didn't care as much about the tournament then as I do now, or else I might have paid more attention to a Louisville squad that knocked off Dale Brown's Tigers and held off a tenacious Duke squad to win their second title under Denny Crum. It would be their last trip to the championship game ... until 2013. (That Duke squad was coached by this Krzyzewski character - it was his first trip to the Final Four. Yes, I was watching basketball when Duke was the underdog.)

In 1989, I was a senior for the first time. (I liked being a senior, so I did a couple extra senior years. Those were fun times.) Bill Frieder made one of the dumbest job decisions in sports history, and Steve Fisher ended up winning the first six games of his Michigan coaching career. (He lost game #7, the 1989-90 season opener against Arizona.) A 65% free-throw shooter hit a pair of shots in overtime, and as a last-second prayer banged harmlessly off the backboard (I remember the shooter as Andrew Gaze, but that's not correct), the Wolverines captured their first NCAA title. It would be their last official trip to the championship game ... until 2013.

The two teams won their national semifinals in completely different fashion. Michigan never trailed Syracuse by more than five points, and when Caris LeVert hit a three at the 9:04 mark in the first half, the Wolverines had a lead they would hold the rest of the way. In contrast, Louisville started the game with a five-minute scoreless stretch, trailing Wichita State 8-0, led by no more than three in the first half, and was down 12 with 13 minutes to play ... the Cardinals didn't take the lead again until the 6:31 mark in the second half, and didn't hold it for good until Chane Behanan's tip with 3:03 left. Russ Smith led Louisville with 21, but had 5 turnovers and was 5-12 from the line; Trey Burke had just 7, but was charged with only a single turnover (and was third on the team in assists).

Monday

9:23 PM, #4 Michigan vs. #1 Louisville (-5), NCAA Final

• It's strength against strength, as the #1 offense (Michigan, 121.7) faces the #1 defense (Louisville, 82.4). Michigan leads the country in turnover percentage (14.5% on offense), and Louisville forces the second-most turnovers (27.3%) ... only VCU forced more (28.5%). The Rams forced 12 in their second-round loss to Michigan.
• A potential weakness for the Cardinals at that end of the floor is rebounding: Louisville allows 33.3% OReb (242nd), and while Michigan's overall numbers aren't great (32.5%, 139th), with the exception of the Florida game, the Wolverines have crashed the offensive glass well in tournament play.
• At the other end, Louisville has a slight advantage, as their offense (118.0, 5th) is better than Michigan's defense (91.6, 32nd). They usually rebound very well (38.1 OReb%, 17th), but Michigan also rebounds well (29.0% OReb allowed, 63rd), and although Louisville draws a lot of fouls (40.0 FTA/FGA, 68th), led by Smith (6.8 FD/40, 16th in NCAA), Michigan fouls less often than any other NCAA team (22.2 FTA/FGA). 
• A potential weakness for the Wolverines is two-point defense: Louisville hits 51.0% (44th), and Michigan allows a slightly-above-average 47.7% (182nd). This actually plays into the Cardinals' hands, because they don't shoot threes well at all (32.9%, 216th).
• Neither team goes deep into their bench: Michigan gives their bench only 20.3% of available minutes (334th), and while Louisville's percentage is normally higher (32.1%, 131st), a good bit of that was Kevin Ware (39.9% of available minutes), so if I understand correctly, that leaves Louisville at about 24.1%.
• Louisville's last loss in regulation was 53-51 at Georgetown. They shot just 3-11 from three and let the Hoyas grab 11 offensive rebounds (.355). Markel Starks and Otto Porter scored 17 apiece to lead Georgetown: Starks was 6-12 from two while Porter was 2-5 from three and 5-6 from the line.
• Michigan's last loss in regulation was 68-59 vs. Wisconsin in Chicago. The Wolverines were just 3-13 from three and hit just 10-17 from the line, while Wisconsin hit 8-22 from three. Ben Brust (of regular-season half-court heave fame) hit 4-7 as part of his 14 points; Traevon Jackson was 7-8 from the line in a 16-point performance.
• In a close game, look for teams to put Mitch McGary (.457) or Chane Behanan (.527) on the line. If you see Nik Stauskas (.851) or Peyton Siva (.860) there, the wrong guy's doing the fouling.
• A Louisville win will likely be keyed by turnovers and penetration, particularly if Smith can get McGary in foul trouble. The freshman has played a key role in Michigan's offensive resurgence, and if he spends time on the bench, Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford are unlikely to contribute at that level. Even without drawing fouls, Louisville can bury teams simply by forcing turnovers and getting easy baskets; twos don't add up as fast as threes, but it doesn't matter much if you string enough of them together.
• A Michigan win will likely come from an early first-half run that builds a lead Louisville can't overcome. With the exception of the Kansas game, Michigan has buried their NCAA opponents early: in addition to Syracuse, they led Florida wire-to-wire, led VCU from the 19:25 mark in the first half, and put away South Dakota State at the 5:45 mark in the first half. Burke, Stauskas, and Tim Hardaway Jr. all hit .381 or better from three-point range; if any of them gets hot, the Cardinals (now led by Luke Hancock's .372) aren't built to outscore that kind of offense having that kind of night.

By the Numbers: Final Fours

So the men's season is mercifully over, the women lost a road game to a team that's currently in the Final Four after knocking off one of the best teams in women's tournament history, and the CIT is going to crown East Carolina or Weber State champions, which means either 20 minutes of pirate jokes or a discussion of pronunciation (it's a long e).

In the meantime, two Big Ten teams keep chugging along, trying to pull off the first NCAA-NIT double in the conference since 1979 (and the first overall since Florida and South Carolina won the tournaments in 2006).

Thursday

9:00 PM, #3 Iowa (-3) vs. #2 Baylor, NIT Championship

• Iowa's recorded four consecutive double-digit victories, the most recent being their 71-60 semifinal win over Maryland Tuesday night in New York. Baylor has had much more varied results, from a 46-point blowout of Long Beach State in their opener to a 3-point win over Arizona State in the round of 16. (Baylor was home for the first three rounds; Iowa had two home games and a road game at Virginia.)
• The Bears' strength is not their defense, as evidenced by the 86 points they gave up to the Sun Devils. They don't force turnovers (18.8%, 241st) and don't box out particularly well (32.6% OReb allowed, 201st), but do a reasonable job of lowering opponents' eFG (46.3%, 77th), partly from defending twos at a passable rate (45.2%, 82nd). This is kind of important, given Iowa's general inability to hit from outside.
• Iowa beat Maryland by forcing turnovers (17 to 8 of their own) and hitting free throws (19-24 vs. 9-16 for the Terrapins), but defensive rebounding was a problem (17 offensive rebounds for Maryland, .425). Baylor's not nearly as good at hitting the offensive glass (33.7 OReb%, 101st), and they don't hit twos as well (50.8%, 47th), but with turnovers not being nearly as much of a problem for the Bears (17.2%, 31st), Iowa may have to hope that someone gets hot from outside to build the Hawkeyes a lead; Baylor doesn't have weaknesses that match up particularly well with Iowa's strengths.

Saturday

8:49 PM, #4 Michigan (-1) vs. #4 Syracuse, NCAA semifinal

• After destroying Florida in the South Regional final, the Wolverines draw the matchup challenge that is the Syracuse zone, the same defense that turned Indiana and Marquette into intramural offenses. Marquette hadn't even allowed as few as 39 points since before Buzz Williams arrived (did you know Tom Crean's Eagles scheduled Florida Gulf Coast in 2008 and beat them 67-37? Insert joke here), and Indiana hadn't scored as few as 50 since last year's loss at Wisconsin (of course).
• The Orange are very efficient on offense, at least as non-Michigan teams go (113.2, 21st), primarily from attacking the offensive boards (39.0%, 8th). They aren't particularly accurate, though, so if Michigan continues to control the defensive glass (SDSU had the highest OReb against them in tournament play, .276), Syracuse will struggle to keep pace with Michigan ...
• ... assuming their offense continues to thrive. Now with the top offense in basketball (121.9), Michigan's strengths line up with Syracuse's defensive strengths: eFG% (Michigan 54.6%, 11th; Syracuse 42.5% allowed, 4th) and turnovers (Michigan 14.5%, 1st; Syracuse 23.6% forced, 19th). The Orange do not rebound well (34.3% OReb allowed, 279th), a problem you'd expect a zone to have, so expect Mitch McGary to continue to put up MVP-like numbers (16.1 OReb%, 9th).
• Rakeem Christmas is barely a contributor at the offensive end (13.9% of shots taken, hasn't hit double digits since Feb 4 against Notre Dame), so McGary should win this post matchup as he has the last four (most recent: Florida's Erik Murphy, 0 points, 8 rebounds in 22 minutes), but it won't mean much.
• Syracuse's last loss came at the hands of Louisville, mostly thanks to Michael Carter-Williams fouling out and to 20 turnovers forced by the Cardinals. Michigan's defense isn't anything like Louisville's, so the Wolverines likely won't win that way ...
• ... but before that, Georgetown beat Syracuse in the regular-season finale by 22, holding the Orange to 1-11 from three-point range and hitting 9-22 themselves. Given Nik Stauskas' reunion with accuracy, this is a much more likely recipe for a Michigan meeting with Wichita State or Louisville on Monday.

By the Numbers: NCAA Regional Finals

Maryland and Iowa patiently wait for their future and current partners to join them in a separate dance. There will be no reprise of the last time the Midwest Regionals were held in Indianapolis, as Seth Curry never gave the Spartans a chance to meet Louisville, and of course we've discussed the wonders of zone defense here already.

Saturday

7:05 PM, #2 Ohio State (-5) vs. #9 Wichita State, NCAA

• Ohio State did very well on the boards against Arizona (11 OReb, .344), kept the Wildcats in check from outside (6-18), and provided plenty of help for Deshaun Thomas (LaQuinton Ross with 17, Aaron Craft with 13, Sam Thompson with 11). Wichita State is also a good rebounding team (38.1%, 17th on offense; 26.2% allowed, 11th on defense), so the Buckeyes will need a similar rebounding effort tonight.
• Perimeter defense won't be as important, though, as the Shockers are merely average from beyond the arc (33.8%, 171st). They were just 2-20 vs. Pitt and 5-12 vs. La Salle. (Gonzaga gave up 14 threes, though ...)
• Wichita State also is not a great free-throw shooting team, shooting just .695 from the line (174th). Among their starters, Carl Hall is a 2-for-3 guy (104-156), and Tekele Cotton hits just .541 (40-74). 
• What the Shockers do bring is bench depth (37.3% of minutes, 45th). Eleven guys get 10% or more of available minutes, so even though Wichita State doesn't use them to push tempo (they're slightly faster than OSU, 64.9 to 64.7), Gregg Marshall will have fresh defenders on the court to shadow Thomas.

Sunday

2:20 PM, #4 Michigan vs. #3 Florida (-5), NCAA

• Be honest: at about 11:20 last night, you were imagining a Michigan-FGCU matchup. The Gators took about 14 minutes of their regional semifinal off, and the Eagles were more than happy to take advantage ... but kenpom's season-long #1 team came to play in the second half and finished off the upset-minded Atlantic Sun champs.
• Of course, it should have been a Kansas-FGCU game, as the Jayhawks kept Trey Burke in check for 20 minutes, then decided they'd see what happened if they gave him a chance to steal the game.
• Florida will present a serious challenge for Michigan's perimeter defense: they hit 38.1% of their threes (23rd), take 40.1% of their attempts from three (31st), and score 34.6% of their points from there (31st). 
• Naturally, the interior defense will be important too, as Florida's accuracy from inside the arc is better than Michigan's (54.6%, 8th). 
• Like OSU, Michigan will be facing a team that doesn't shoot free throws well. The Gators shoot just .677 (225th). Patric Young will not be on the floor late, as he hits just .504 from the line; Scottie Wilbekin is the next guy to foul, shooting .695 from the stripe. (He did hit 7-8 vs. FGCU and 7-10 vs. Minnesota.)
• It will be interesting to watch Mitch McGary battle Erik Murphy inside. The freshman faces his third straight marquee matchup, and he came off pretty well in the first two: 24 points and 14 boards vs. Juvonte Reddic (who was limited by foul trouble), and 25 points and 14 boards last night against Jeff Withey. Murphy, Young, and Will Yeguete will have to work to limit McGary's offensive rebounds; the only non-post player on Michigan with an OReb above 2.5% is Glenn Robinson III (7.6%), so with McGary sure to get the bulk of the low-post minutes, keeping McGary boxed out will limit Michigan's second-chance opportunities.

By the Numbers: NCIT, Continuing Action

I've been sick since Sunday, so there was no clever wrap-up of last week's action. Naturally, Iowa has won yet again – they'll end up winning the NIT and I'll have done maybe one preview for them. Elsewhere, Tubby Smith loses his job one game after his Gophers knock Ben Howland out of his ... presumably there are other reasons, but it sounds more fun to write it this way, doesn't it, Billy Donovan?

With Purdue's exit from the CBI, there are just two tournaments left to watch.

Thursday

7:47 PM, #2 Ohio State (-4) vs. #6 Arizona, NCAA

• The Buckeyes struggled against Iowa State in two areas: offensive rebounding (the Cyclones had 12, .387) and three-point shooting. At 12 for 25, ISU shot better from outside the arc (.480) than inside it (.407). Most of that came from Michigan State transfer Korie Lucious (5 for 7); the boards came primarily from 6'6" Melvin Ejim (6 of the 12), who has a 13.2 OReb%, 62nd in the country.
• Both of those areas could be problems against the Wildcats. Arizona gets 35.1% of available offensive rebounds (61st); although they don't have an Ejim to gather all of them, 7'0" freshman Kaleb Tarczewski pulls down 11.9%, followed by 6'8" Brandon Ashley (9.4%) and 6'6" Kevin Parrom (9.1%). Four Arizona starters shoot at least .333 from outside (including Parrom), and 6'10" freshman Grant Jerrett shoots .403 ... these are not guys you want to leave open.
• Arizona's height (+3.5", 16th) may give Ohio State some trouble. Deshaun Thomas should get his points, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see the role players struggle to help him.

9:45 PM, #1 Those Guys (-5) vs. #4 Syracuse, NCAA

• The #1 offense in the country scored 15 points in 20 minutes against a Temple team not playing a matchup zone. The Owls' defense is marginally better than average (97.2), so Tom Crean had better get those problems worked out before facing a much better defense: Syracuse is 10th (88.1).
• Indiana gets a lot of shots blocked (10.7%, 277th), which is music to Boeheim's ears, as Syracuse leads the country in block percentage (18.8%). Four players are ranked individually, led by Rakeem Christmas (11.2%, 20th) and Baye Keita (8.4%, 62nd). As a point of comparison, Ohio State is 15th. In the regular-season game IU won, they had just one shot blocked; in the loss in Bloomington, the Buckeyes blocked seven shots.
• Both teams crash the offensive boards well (Syracuse 39.5% and 5th, two spots ahead of IU), so expect a lot of second-chance points and angry teeth-gnashing on the sidelines. (This may be where Syracuse loses the game: they give up a lot of offensive boards – 34.2%, 270th.)

Friday

7:37 PM, #4 Michigan (-1) vs. #1 Kansas, NCAA

• kenpom loves Michigan in no small part because of their evisceration of Havoc. While that confidence might carry over into Friday's game, nothing else does, and certainly they can't expect to have the same type of success against a completely different team.
• Kansas leads the country in defensive eFG% (41.1%; Southern is second, which may help to explain why Gonzaga did not roll over them on Thursday). They don't force turnovers much (18.5%, 253rd), basically because they just let Jeff Withey block shots (13.7%, 5th). Michigan is 11th in two-point shooting (53.8%) while the Jayhawks are 1st in two-point shooting allowed (38.7%). One of these things, you know.
• At the other end, Kansas does turn the ball over a lot (20.4%, 201st), but Michigan doesn't force a lot of turnovers (18.8%, 237th). The Jayhawks have four starters shooting better than .500 from two-point range; expect them to pound away at Michigan's defense rather than trying to stretch it with outside shooting.

9:45 PM, #3 Michigan State vs. #2 Duke (-1), NCAA

• Michigan State overwhelmed their first two opponents with defense: 0.90 PPP for Valparaiso and 0.71 for Memphis. Duke held Creighton to 0.78. That probably means we'll see a game in the high 80s.
• Like Sparty, Duke is strong at both ends, so a loss typically comes when they struggle in multiple areas. Against Maryland, Duke was cold from three (4-25) and didn't defend inside the arc (18-31, .581). Dez Wells put up 30, including 10-10 from the line. It might take a similar effort from Nix or Payne for Michigan State to advance to Sunday's regional final.
• Three Duke starters shoot .800 or better from the line (Rasheed Sulaimon is exactly at .800) ... but Mason Plumlee is not one of them. He's the only high-usage guy worth fouling, and at .672, he's not terrible. The Spartans aren't likely to make up ground by fouling late in the game.

Tuesday

9:00 PM, #3 Iowa (-4) vs. #2 Maryland, NIT

I know, we'll have regional finals before this game, but if I don't do it now, I'll forget again.

• Who's excited about this future conference matchup? Bueller? Bueller?
• OK, seriously. Maryland's offense is ... not so good (106.5, 78th). Yes, they scored 83 points in each of their wins over Duke, but that's the kind of performance they'll need to beat an Iowa team with a slightly better defense. Maryland turns the ball over a lot (22.1%, 286th), but Iowa doesn't force turnovers much (19.5%, 202nd); they also don't draw a lot of fouls (34.6 FTA/FGA, 212th). Basically, it's the two-point shot (52.2%, 24th) or bust, which sounds easy enough for Iowa to defend.
• Going back to why these teams are in the NIT ... Iowa allowed roughly 1 PPP to Stony Brook and Virginia, also not offensive powers, so it may be that the Hawkeyes are just defending down to the level of their opponents. They did hit much better from outside than normal (.421 against Stony Brook, .471 against Virginia), and the Terrapins do allow a number of three-point shots (34.3%, 215th), so Iowa may find themselves in the NIT final if someone takes advantage of the open looks they'll be getting.

By the Numbers: NCITBI, Rounds 2-3

I didn't think anyone would be dumb enough to have men's basketball games other than NCAA games on Thursday or Friday (especially given who's running the NIT now). I was wrong. Iowa didn't seem to be in any real trouble, but didn't exactly crush Stony Brook ... still, a win is a win. They've advanced with Maryland to the NIT quarters, and those will be played on non-NCAA game days. Either Virginia or St. John's will face Iowa, likely in Iowa City because Big Ten.

Onto the upcoming games ... Wisconsin was the only loser, so this won't be much shorter than last time.

Saturday

12:15 PM, #4 Michigan (-1) vs. #5 VCU, NCAA

• Michigan beat South Dakota State mostly by hitting from outside; they shot nearly the same from two (.576 for the Jackrabbits to .543 for the Wolverines), had the same number of offensive and defensive rebounds, and hit the same number of free throws. Michigan is not likely to match VCU that way: as mgoblog points out, VCU lives and dies by its press. If it works, the Rams will force turnovers that lead to easy baskets and cause serious problems for UM. (Sound familiar? Nope, not to me either. No idea what you're talking about.) If it doesn't, Michigan's offense will shred the Rams, and VCU's sub-par half-court offense will struggle, even against a defense that has been pretty weak the last month or so.
• Trey Burke had just 6 points against SDSU, his only single-figure output of the season. He's had fewer than 15 only three other times: 12 against Cleveland State, 10 against Kansas State, and 11 against Eastern Michigan, all in games Michigan won comfortably. I'd expect a solid game this time out, because in the games following those outings, he was impressive: 17 points and 6 assists against Pitt, 18 points and 11 assists against NC State, 22 points and 11 assists against Central Michigan. (Competition obviously better in the first two games.) 
• VCU has played four games against kenpom top-20 teams: Duke, Missouri, and St. Louis twice. They lost all four. Maybe this means Michigan has an edge in close games between good teams; maybe this is where VCU makes another one of those runs. On the other hand, even forcing turnovers didn't help in those games – Missouri had 14 and St. Louis had 18 (VCU forced 8 in each of the other two big-game losses).

2:45 PM, #3 Michigan State (-5) vs. #6 Memphis, NCAA

• Michigan State turned the ball over 17 times against Valparaiso, but crashed the offensive boards (20, .571) to make up for it, and the Crusaders normally box out pretty well. Memphis is worse on the defensive glass, but better at forcing turnovers; if Memphis can pressure Sparty's bigs (Payne had 6 of the 17 and Nix had 2), they could create problems even if Harris has another tolerable day (4 assists, 2 TOs against Valparaiso).
• The Tigers played really effective D against St. Mary's, which was good because they gave up 15 offensive boards (.375). Josh Pastner is probably tired of facing trees, as the Gaels are about like MSU on the glass, and the Tigers are likely to struggle Saturday too.
• Their offense against St. Mary's was not good at all: 0.86 PPP, .441 from two, .500 from the line. Memphis, like VCU, did not fare well against top-20 competition, losing all three games (VCU, Minnesota, and Louisville). None of the losses were bad, and the Tigers are unlikely to give up 80+ to the plodding Spartans, but they will be made to pay if they don't fix their rebounding issues.

Sunday

12:15 PM, #2 Ohio State (-8) vs. #10 Iowa State, NCAA

• The Buckeyes thrashed Iona soundly, in part because they averaged 1.19 PPP to the Gaels' 0.88. (I know! Two Gaels in one tournament! It's like the Hunger Games, only without mines buried in the court.) They were up 16 after 10 minutes, and that was pretty much that.
• The supporting cast showed up nicely, as Sam Thompson had 20 (including 8-8 from the line), and Lenzelle Smith and Evan Ravenel had 12 and 11 respectively. That's going to be a problem for a Cyclone defense that is close to average, especially given OSU's run of late. There aren't many teams that played through their conference tournaments and into the NCAAs like they wanted a Final Four spot, and OSU is one of them.
• Iowa State's offense is actually pretty solid: 8th in ORtg, 41st from three, 27th from two, and 58th from the line. Tyrus McGee only gets about 60% of available minutes, but makes the most of them, with a 130.8 ORtg, 8th-best in the country: .545 from two plus a team-leading .457 from three and .825 from the line. I'd expect Aaron Craft to be guarding McGee starting at the scorer's table; that will require one of the other guys to step up, like Melvin Ejim (113.6 ORtg, 17 against Notre Dame) or Georges Niang (116.5 ORtg, 19 against ND). The Irish defense isn't anything like Ohio State's, so they may find it a bit more difficult to build a lead for McGee to maintain.

2:45 PM, #1 Indiana (-15) vs. #9 Temple, NCAA

• Don't be fooled by the score: JMU scored half of their points in the final ten minutes of the game, once everything was decided, and still only outscored IU by 8 over that time. Once Yogi Ferrell built that early lead, the game was pretty much over. (Not the 10 points I'd forecast, but close enough.)
• A John Chaney defense might have been enough to slow down this Indiana team; an adequate Fran Dunphy defense will not be. Duke put up 90 points at 1.32 PPP in a blowout win in December; four Blue Devils had 14 points or more. Expect Indiana to have an equally-balanced attack Sunday.
• Temple's offense is actually pretty efficient (111.2, 33rd), but largely because they don't turn the ball over at all (15.9%, 9th). That's not going to matter. Indiana defends pretty much everything Temple does well, and the Owls really don't stop anything Indiana does well on offense. Indiana likely won't be tested on Sunday.

6:10 PM, #11 Minnesota vs. #3 Florida (-9), NCAA

• The Gophers got a thin UCLA squad in early foul trouble and buried them; that could also happen (the foul trouble, not the burying part) against the Gators, who are 303rd in bench minutes (24.7%); UCLA was 294th (25.2%).
• Minnesota was 9-16 from three, including 4-6 from Austin and 5-8 from Andre Hollins. Neither missed from the line (11-11 combined); Andre's 28 points was topped only by his 41 against Memphis in November. Florida allows opponents to hit 29.7% from three and just 41.6% from two, so I wouldn't expect a similar performance Sunday. Minnesota can't even guarantee an advantage on the offensive glass (they're still #1 in the country), as Florida allows just 28.3 OReb%, 50th.
• Minnesota's three-point defense isn't great, and Florida can hit from there (38.0%, 25th) as well as from two (54.9%, 8th) ... the team that's been #1 in kenpom's rankings since January 12 doesn't struggle often, and in most of their losses, their weakness was in a different area: giving Arizona 13 more FT attempts (and 14 more to Kansas State), allowing Arkansas to score 1.14 PPP, hitting just 10-33 from three against Missouri, giving Tennessee 13 offensive rebounds ... the Gophers will simply have to create a weakness and focus on it, hoping to keep the Gators close enough that one advantage (rebounding, maybe?) will be enough to give them a narrow win.

8:40 PM, #7 Illinois vs. #2 Miami (FL) (-5), NCAA

• Illinois played three games against Colorado: led 37-21 at halftime, gave up a 21-2 run to blow that lead, then finished on an 18-7 run to put the game away.
• Defense carried the day, as the Buffaloes managed just 0.77 PPP. Miami hasn't been held under 1.0 PPP since a 54-50 win over Virginia in February. The Hurricanes don't turn the ball over much, either (16.9%, 22nd), so the advantage the Illini might otherwise have there is neutralized.
• Miami doesn't allow a lot of threes (35.2% of attempts, 252nd), so that's not a good sign for John Groce's three-or-nothing offense. The 'Canes also allow 32.7% accuracy, so what little effect that has will also not be in Illinois' favor.
• Actually, Illinois really doesn't have any edge here. Everything they do well, Miami does better: they're taller (+4.0", 10th), more experienced (2.40 years, 8th) ... I guess if bench play becomes a factor, Miami could be in trouble (23.9% bench minutes, 312th), but I think it's more likely that the Illini will find themselves behind early and won't be able to shoot their way out of it.

Monday

7:00 PM, Santa Clara at Purdue (-7), CBI

• As mentioned in other posts, Purdue won't find themselves as underdogs in this tournament; kenpom says it's theirs to win. Santa Clara is a step up from Western Illinois, but not much of one: while they do force turnovers, kind of (21.3%, 92nd) and hold down two-point shooting (44.9%, 77th), Purdue's already bad at those things ... 
• ... and Santa Clara does not box out well: 33.5% OReb allowed is a good thing for Purdue fans and for Dru Anthrop. (And, you know, any bigs who decide to get some of those missed shots.) Of course if Purdue shoots like they did against the Leathernecks – .571 from two, .636 from three, .923 from the line – then it probably doesn't matter what happens on missed shots. (The Boilers did get 9 offensive boards, .391.)
• Western's offense was fairly effective, and Santa Clara does have a pretty good offense (1.17 PPP against Vermont, 107.0 ORtg overall, 72nd), but again, West Coast Conference opposition. The Catamounts were actually the second-highest-rated team the Broncos beat; somehow they knocked off St. Louis on the road, 74-62. Let's write that off as early-season jitters and move on. 
• Honestly, we can probably throw all these numbers out the window. Either the Boilers will work hard and get the win, or they'll let it slip away: they're perfectly capable of solid performances when Painter can get 40 (or even 30) good minutes out of the team. Purdue is 2-7 against top-20 competition; Santa Clara is not top-20 competition.

By the Numbers: NCITBI, Round 1

Fortunately the conference hasn't expanded yet, otherwise I'd be a day late with this. (What? You didn't realize that Maryland's already advanced in the NIT?) If you happen to be one of those people who watches every available tournament game, here's a few stats on each of the nine games involving Big Ten teams in the first* round of the CBI, NIT, and NCAA tournaments.

Wednesday

7 PM, #6 Indiana State at #3 Iowa (-11)**, NIT

• Expect a low-scoring game featuring two of the better defenses in the country: Iowa's is significantly better (89.5 vs. 94.6), and that plus ISU's average offense (100.8 - the average is 100.6) will make it hard for the Sycamores to make up ground, especially given their preferred tempo (65.4, right around average, which is 65.8 possessions). 
• Threes? We don't need no stinkin' threes. ISU's bad, at 32.2%; Iowa's worse, at 30.0%. The Hawkeyes also allow only 29.0% on defense, fifth in the country. (Magic wands? Loud noises from the sidelines?) Again, a factor conducive to an insurmountable halftime lead for the Hawkeyes.
• Both teams draw a lot of fouls: ISU 42.7 FTA/FGA, Iowa 42.5. If it's a close game, expect the second half to take about two hours.
• Iowa's the highest-rated team in kenpom's ratings (27th) not to make the NCAA tournament.

7 PM, Western Illinois at Purdue (-10), CBI

• Obviously you're watching this to support the Good Guys and not because you expect an enjoyable game. For all the struggles Purdue's had on offense, the Leathernecks have had them in spades: 94.0, which makes Purdue's look like a well-oiled cliche. (Actually, for the year, Purdue's offense is above average, 104.6. That's mostly offensive rebounding and partly strength of schedule.) WIU's preferred tempo is 1930s-style basketball: they are the slowest team in the country, averaging 57.8 possessions per game. Wisconsin, by comparison, averages 61.9. I wouldn't be surprised if these teams fail to combine for 100 points.
• Accordingly, Western does not crash the boards on offense (24.8%, 336th) and packs it in on defense (27.2% allowed, 28th). Between that and not fouling (28.5 FTA/FGA allowed, also 28th), Purdue needs to make the most of the shots they'll get. 
• If Purdue falls behind, they should feel free to foul. WIU shoots 64.8% from the line, only a few points better than the Boilers (64.1%). The two Leathernecks with the most possessions shoot under 50%; Terell Parks, a 6-8 rebounding machine (27.6% DReb, 4th in NCAA), shoots .439 from the line. He's been out for nearly a month with a foot injury, so even if he does play, I doubt he'll be shooting any better.

Thursday

12:15 PM, #3 Michigan State (-9) vs. #14 Valparaiso, NCAA

• What's the opposite of Purdue-Western Illinois? This game. Valpo's offense can hang with MSU's (109.9 vs. 112.8), but at a slightly higher tempo (65.9 to 64.4) and with a much more accurate touch. Valparaiso shoots 56.1% from two, 4th in the country; 37.5% from three, 38th; and 73.7% from the line, 45th. They don't get second looks much, but they don't need them. If MSU can't force turnovers (the Crusaders turn it over like the Spartans, 22.0% vs. 20.5%), they can't be giving up open looks.
• You know how basketball brains like to talk about experience? Who's got the most experienced team in the country? Valparaiso, 2.72 years of experience per player. That's nearly 1.5 seasons more than MSU averages. No hidden-ball tricks in this game.
• The Horizon League champions don't have any quality wins, but two of their losses were at tournament teams (13 at St. Louis and New Mexico), and two of their bad losses were by a single bucket. This kind of team is hard to judge. Did they shoot so well because their opponents aren't good, or are they good enough to put a scare into Sparty? Don't be surprised if the first half proves the latter to be true.
• Pacer.

7:15 PM, #4 Michigan (-13) vs. #13 South Dakota State, NCAA

• So Michigan's freshmen suddenly remembered they were freshmen and got knocked around the last month of the season ... in the Big Ten, which will never be mistaken for the Summit League, which is probably best known for a coach diving on the floor to celebrate a tournament bid. (Did I remember that correctly?) The Jackrabbits are experienced – 2.18 years, 43rd – but that shouldn't be Michigan's concern ...
• ... instead, it should be their shooting touch. Take Valparaiso and level them up: 39.4% from three (9th), 50.3% from two (60th), 77.3% from the line (5th). In other words, do not sag off your man. If Nate Wolters (124.8 ORtg, 29th) beats Trey Burke, let him.
• Sadly for the upset-minded, SDSU does not boast the same kind of defense. Like Michigan, they don't foul much (24.6 FTA/FGA, 4th, to Michigan's NCAA-leading 22.9), but their eFG is 50.9%, well worse than average. The Jackrabbits may run out to a lead, but the Wolverines are more than likely to run them down and shred them: Michigan's eFG is better (54.4% to 53.5% for SDSU's offense) and came largely against a much better conference. Don't be surprised if this one looks close at the half before UM pulls away late.

Friday

12:40 PM, #5 Wisconsin (-5) vs. #12 Mississippi, NCAA

• These teams are more alike than you might think: good offense, good defense, rare turnovers (5th and 7th in offensive turnover %). Where they differ is in tempo: Ole Miss likes to run (70.8 possessions, 11th-fastest) and Wisconsin likes to sit and watch paint dry (61.9, as mentioned above).
• Mississippi probably needs to run, though. They don't shoot well from three (33.0%, 218th) or from the line (68.4%, although that's way better than Wisconsin's brick-like 63.3%). 
• Expect a lot of shots to end up anywhere but the rim: both teams block quite a few shots (Mississippi 7.5%, Wisconsin 7.0%). 
• One last thing: if there is a prop bet*** on Mississippi assists, take the under. They average an assist on less than half their made baskets (46.1%, 318th), and Wisconsin allows an assist on just 40.4%, 2nd-best in the country.

4:10 PM, #1 Forces of Evil (-22) vs. #16 James Madison, NCAA

• OK, OK, I'll update this once we know who the opponent is, as if it matters. While a #16 will eventually knock off a #1, as a famous actor once said, today is not that day.
• So ... this is your traditional 16 vs. 1. If IU isn't up by 10 at the first commercial break, it'll be a disappointment. JMU doesn't have an average offense (97.6) ... their defense isn't bad (98.2), but this is Indiana offense. 
• The Dukes don't turn the ball over much (17.3%, 35th). That's probably all we want to say about them.
• One of the tallest teams in the country (effective height +3.1" per position, 19th) faces one of the shortest (-1.9", 290th). I think Cody Zeller already has three rebounds.

4:40 PM, #7 Illinois (-1) vs. #10 Colorado, NCAA

• You know 7/10 games are usually tossups, right? Sure you do. Illinois has a slight edge in offensive efficiency (109.7 to 105.7), but Colorado has the advantage on defense (90.9 to 93.3). 
• The teams have weaknesses that match their opponents' strengths, too, but that's not good for the Illini: Illinois doesn't draw fouls on offense (31.2 FTA/FGA, 290th), and Colorado doesn't commit fouls (24.7, 6th). The Buffaloes do draw fouls well (41.4, 41st), and Illinois is happy to comply (36.9 defensively, 201st). 
• Illinois shoots a ton of threes, but shoots them poorly (32.3%, 244th) ... and Colorado doesn't allow accuracy (also 32.3%, 93rd), although they do allow frequency (31.7% of opponents' points come from outside, 38th, well above the NCAA average of 27.5%). If someone gets hot from outside, that could cause Colorado problems.

7:15 PM, #2 Ohio State (-16) vs. #15 Iona, NCAA

• I laughed at the people picking OSU to win the conference tournament. Whatever.
• Iona actually has a pretty good offense, 113.1 (22nd) vs. OSU's 114.6 (14th). They don't turn it over much (16.9% to 16.6%) and shoot well (52.5% eFG to 50.8% for OSU). Also, they hit free throws (77.8%, 4th). Which means ...
• nothing. They will run (70.6 possessions, 18th) and jack up threes (37.3% accuracy, 41st), and it won't matter, because their below-average defense (105.5, 255th) will get them crushed. Poor two-point defense (49.1%, 232nd) and defensive rebounding (33.4 OReb% on defense, 246th) will ensure that Deshaun Thomas has a monster game. 

9:57 PM,  #11 Minnesota (-3) vs. #6 UCLA, NCAA

• How is it that a team that's lost 7 of their last 10 is favored against a #6 seed? Well, two of their wins came against kenpom top-10 teams (Wisconsin and Indiana), plus the Pac-12 is ... not so strong. Arizona and Arizona State are the only teams favored to win their tournament games; UCLA and Arizona are the only teams with NCAA bids seeded higher than 10th. 
• Who's going to stop Minnesota's NCAA-leading offensive rebound game (44.3%)? No one. UCLA gives up an offensive rebound about one time in three (34.0%, 267th). The Bruins swept Arizona in conference play, but gave up 19 offensive rebounds in the game in Tucson. Missouri had 20 in an overtime loss at Pauley. Washington State had 21 in a win at UCLA (in a game they led 21-4 at the 10-minute mark in the first half).
• While the Bruins do like to run (69.3 possessions, 35th), their advantage may be on turnovers. Minnesota turns it over a lot (21.7%, 266th) and UCLA gets a lot of steals (11.6%, 53rd). If UCLA pulls off the "upset", look to their transition game as a possible factor.

I would totally put pictures and stuff in here, but my new laptop just arrived, so I got to go. (If it helps any, it's got an Old Gold cover.)

*Opening-round games are opening-round games. The first round has 64 teams. The NCAA's insistence on calling a red pencil yellow does not make the pencil yellow.
**All lines from kenpom.com and for informational purposes only. Betting on NIT games? That's a problem, my friend.
***What's a prop bet? I don't know. It's probably illegal. Everything's illegal. What was the question again?

By the Numbers: The Worst of Times, The Best of Times

Soooo ... that game in Iowa City.

Limit Iowa's transition game? So-so. Iowa had 10 steals (bad), but scored just 7 points off them, thanks to bad free-throw shooting (three steals turned into Purdue fouls and then zero points).

Fouls, period? Terrible. 24 fouls, including 5 on Ronnie and 4 on A.J., leading to 29 attempts at the line, more than enough to decide the game. (Aaron White was 11-14; Purdue was 7-10.)

Brick: a material used in buildings
and outside shots.

Shot selection? Could have been better. Inside guys were not bad (Hale, Hammons, Carroll, and Marcius combined to shoot 12-23), but outside guys were bad (4-15 from 2, 3-14 from 3). Purdue had 10 offensive rebounds, but managed just 5 points off those.

End result = bad basketball in a loss. Let's move on, shall we? At this rate, we'll be seeing them in Indianapolis a city that is clearly not Indianapolis next Thursday anyway, and I can repeat what I said last time.

Madison, Wisconsin. Purdue has a 6% chance of pulling this one off. Wisconsin's only real weakness seems to be the free-throw line (shooting worse than Purdue in conference play), specifically Ryan Evans. And Wisconsin pulls out to a 13-point first-half lead. Win probability: 1.9%.

Purdue then outscored Wisconsin 50-24. Wisconsin held 9 opponents to fewer than 50 points in a game ... and 3 more to 51 points. Purdue managed that in 27 minutes.

Our memories of yesterday
will last a lifetime ...
(Reese Strickland/USA Today sports)

• Three-point shooting. D.J. was 6 of 9, shining on Senior Night. Oh wait ... that was their senior night. Whoops. His bad. (Purdue attempted only three other long-distance shots, one by each of three players. That's fine.) I'm not sure anyone else has hit that many three-point shots against Wisconsin this season; heck, most teams aren't hitting that many threes against them, and certainly not in Madison.
• Three-point defense. Wisconsin was excellent from two (16-27, .593, well above their .469 conference mark), but hit just 6 of 28 from downtown, and all six came in the first half. Read that again: Wisconsin took one more shot from three-point range despite shooting nearly 400 points better from inside the arc. At home. In a game they led by 13. If you missed the game and I left out the team names, you'd swear Purdue did that.
• Tolerable FT shooting. Ronnie was 0-4; the rest of the team was 11-13.

It's easy to underestimate the value of having a deeper bench. While Painter was able to call on guys like Marcius and Hale, guys who don't normally get a lot of playing time, Ryan doesn't have that, so when his players aren't doing what they should be, he has limited options.

Also, the Evans thing is spooky. He's shooting .417 from the line this season; he shot .726 last season. I don't know how to find this out, but I'd guess there isn't one guy in ten years who drops 300 points in one season with as many attempts as Evans has. He's also 2-23 from three (that's zlionsfan territory right there, only I'd have to be wiiiiide open on the makes) ... if you need any proof that psychology can be a major factor in sports, Evans is it.

Anyway, the upset plus a couple of other factors (Penn State) give Purdue a roughly 50-50 chance of stealing a game this week. That'd still leave them two wins shy of the NIT, so don't count on any games beyond the Minnesota game in Mackey.

A loss would give Painter his first-ever winless season against Michigan teams (0-5 with EMU as a "bonus" loss).

To beat Michigan, Purdue needs to be effective on offense: Penn State beat Michigan despite taking one fewer shot (and allowing the Wolverines to hit .658 from two) by hitting threes (10-20, with Jermaine Marshall hitting 6 of 10) and free throws (20-27). Also, Michigan doesn't draw fouls (.286 FTA/FGA, 11th in conference play), so don't help them out. Make them work for shots and see if you can get their offense out of sync ... unfortunately it isn't like Purdue has that much more experience to take advantage of Michigan's young team.

In Ann Arbor, Purdue was just 7 of 22 from outside, but a bigger problem, perhaps, was their two-point defense: Michigan was 20-39 from two and also had 12 offensive rebounds. Morgan and McGary can't be getting easy putbacks; the Michigan offense is good enough when Burke is allowed to run it freely, so taking away second-chance points should be a priority.

Purdue hasn't closed the regular season against Minnesota since 1988; #2 Purdue crushed the Gophers then, 93-66.

To beat Minnesota, Purdue needs to force turnovers. The Gophers are last in turnover percentage (21.8%), but Purdue is last in forcing turnovers (15.3%); one of those things has to go. Northwestern knocked off Minnesota in part by picking up 9 steals; Purdue will need a similar effort, particularly so they can avoid Trevor Mbakwe (7.0 Blk%, 101st in DI).

If they can't manage that, they'll need outside accuracy ... although three-point percentage against isn't as good of an indicator as number of threes taken, the Gophers are 11th in conference play, allowing opponents to shoot .366 from beyond the arc, and Illinois hit 11 of 23 in their win in Williams Arena in February.

At this point, the Big Ten has really separated itself into four groups: the solid teams (the top six), the bubble-type teams (Illinois and Iowa), the Good Guys, and the bad teams (Northwestern has plummeted into that group, and they may well end up losing to Penn State Thursday). Purdue is 34 places behind eighth-best Illinois and 58 places ahead of tenth-best Northwestern ... enough of a gap that an NIT bid probably hinges on their ability to draw Nebraska or Northwestern in round 1. Illinois does face Iowa and Ohio State, both on the road, so two losses for them plus a Purdue split (or sweep) could make things interesting for seeding purposes. Too bad that'll give Iowa an extra win, too ...

A three-way tie is certainly possible ... but which one?

By the Numbers: Northwestern Analysis, Iowa Forecast

You may have noticed the basketball-like substance on the floor of Mackey Arena Sunday. You may also have noticed that it came from the Good Guys and not the valiant opposition ... in no small part because a) Painter seems to be caring less about results and more about lessons, which strangely leads to better results sometimes, and b) Northwestern apparently angered the basketball gods by nearly making the tournament last year, so every contributing senior has been struck down in response; only Reggie Hearn has recovered.

kenpom had this as a Purdue win going into the game, and it played out basically as a more extreme version of what the numbers would have suggested.

That's not supposed to be
close to even, Wildcats.

• Rebounding. Northwestern is actually above-average in height – their effective height is +2.5, 37th in the country – but that's related more to defense than anything else. Since Jared Swopshire went down for the season against Iowa, they've been left with short players and young players: the tallest, 7'0" Alex Olah, posts just a 6.3 OR% and 15.0 DR%. For context, in slightly fewer minutes, 6'5" Rapheal Davis has 6.8% and 15.1% respectively. (Translation: tall Wildcat needs practice.)
  Accordingly, Purdue destroyed Northwestern on the boards, 48-23*, with a whopping 48.3 OR% (see graphic; 5 of those 14 were team boards, which I suspect means some Wildcat knocked them out of bounds or fouled). Davis had 1 OR and 6 DR for Purdue; Olah had 2 OR and 0 DR. Purdue also posted an 81.0 DR%. (Translation: Purdue with the rebound.)
• Defense. Height correlates with defense in several areas, but it doesn't cause better defense, and Northwestern has shown that in Big Ten play, dropping to dead last in defensive efficiency (111.0). Yes, this comes from things like losing by 15 to Nebraska and by 28(!!) to Wisconsin, both slow-tempo teams like the 'Cats.
  In Evanston, Purdue was "held" to just 1 point per possession; this time they posted 1.16 PPP, and yes, they scored a bit over 16% more points than in the first meeting. Purdue shot .556 from two and .467 from three. (In related news, Ronnie Johnson did not attempt a three.) This is not good if you are on defense. If Purdue had hit their free throws (A.J.?), it probably would have been a 40-point game.
• Offense. Yes, the Wildcats forced 15 turnovers for a 23.4 TO%, well over Purdue's conference average of 19.0%, but they simply couldn't convert them ... shooting .316(!!!) from two will do that to you. Add in .222 from three and a Boiler-like .583 from the line, and you get a blowout loss: fewer possessions (thanks to the 19.0 OR%) and few conversions. Hearn: 3-10, 0-1 from three, 8 points in 30 minutes.

Fortunately for Northwestern, Penn State fills the gap between impending blowouts at the hands of Ohio State (home) and Michigan State (away). Like Purdue, Northwestern must steal one of those games to have a fighting chance at .500; unlike Purdue, they now seem completely incapable of doing so.

The win stopped a three-game slide that dropped Purdue down to 97th; right now they're 78th, where they were right before the first Northwestern game. The Iowa game still looks like you'd expect if a tournament-bound** team were hosting a sub-.500 team: 80-20 for Iowa. Things to watch for if Purdue's going to pull this one off:

More shots for the guy
on the far right, plz.

• Iowa's transition game. The Hawkeyes are 8th in offensive efficiency in Big Ten play (100.4), 10th in eFG (44.2%), and 11th in 3P% (28.6). Get back on defense, make them run what half-court options they have, especially if they go to Josh Oglesby (32-121 from three, .264; his eFG is 38.5%, which is stat-speak for "bad"). Purdue's two-point defense (44.3%) is third in the conference; there shouldn't be many good options when the defense gets back.
• Fouls. Iowa leads the conference at .732 from the line. They shot .867 against Nebraska ... but only had 15 attempts on 13 Cornhusker fouls. Purdue allowed 27 FTA in the overtime win in Mackey; best not to repeat that performance if possible.
  Inside fouls were a problem in the first meeting: AJ fouled out in 30 minutes and Travis Carroll had 3 fouls in 7 minutes. Aside from maybe Adam Woodbury (20-38, .526), no Hawkeye is really a liability at the line. Don't commit cheap fouls.
• Shot selection. Purdue shot just .423 from two in Mackey; Iowa's in-conference defensive efficiency is much better than Northwestern's, and in the road games against teams on either side of Iowa, Purdue shot .426 against Michigan State and .438 against Michigan. It'll be as important as ever that players move without the ball on offense: poor shots generally don't lead to points in this situation.

kenpom predicts a 71-62 win for Iowa; a Purdue win would be more of a confidence booster than anything else (an NIT bid probably requires another regular-season win plus a first-round BTT win) and pretty much forces Iowa to win the BTT to make the NCAA field.

* EsPN's numbers do not include team rebounds, which is silly because they do count.
** Yes, Iowa's not currently even on the bubble. Yes, losing to Nebraska is bad. However, 8 of their 10 losses are to solid teams (Wichita State's righted themselves and look to be in good shape; VT is Iowa's other bad loss), and a first-round BTT win would likely give Iowa 20. 8-10 in this conference should be enough to get them in.