The Changing B1G Basketball Landscape

If you're looking ahead to next season, it's prudent to start with the reigning champion of the conference...and with IU's recent defections, it makes even more sense to do so.

We all know IU will look different in 2013. I read someplace that they're the first program to ever lose four 1,000 point scorers in one off-season.  That'll leave a mark. So is it more amazing that four guys that reached the millennial mark are all gone in the same off-season, OR that a team that had four 1,000 point scorers (on one starting five) never got past the Sweet 16? You guys can discuss that  question amongst yourselves.

What we do know is that it's difficult to lose four starters...regardless of whom those starters are.  It's even tougher when a team loses its heart and soul; IU has lost both.

We had a ton of IU fans assure us that Zeller was going to stay because he needed to develop.  Bad news, friends: Crean's system wasn't helping him develop...in fact, it seemingly was making him worse.  It seems that we weren't the only ones who thought this.  Ex-IU player and coach, and current radio/TVpersonality, Dan Dakich encouraged Zeller to go pro as a way to help him develop.  Zeller wasn't used effectively and his bad habits weren't coached out of him.  As the season progressed, his shoulder got lower and lower when he drove...and officials were all but forced to call the charge on the 7 footer whose shoulder height would have made a running back jealous.

Zeller told the press that he had planned all along to go pro after his Sophomore year...but IU fans told us a different story.  We were told that his parents valued academics so much that he wouldn't leave until he had graduated...He has 35 credit hours remaining. Some told us that he just loved the school too much to leave.  It sounds like he really liked IU, but he loved his teammates, namely those leaving and graduating...so that made his decision easier.

A word of unsolicited advice to my IU friends and anyone else who wants to adamantly predict the actions of another person: It's not a good idea to try to guess what's in another person's head, especially an 18/19 year old kid.

Zeller wisely chose to leave...and in his decision's wake, IU fans were seriously asking, "Won't IU be better without him?" Many continued, "He was too soft." I mean, why wouldn't someone want to stay and play in front of fans like that??? Ammiright?

Zeller was a very good college basketball player...and now that he's no longer at IU, I hope he does OK on the next level; glad he's gone, wish him no ill will.  Afterall, he officially made an excellent decision yesterday.  All that said, I'd guess that three years ago, the average IU fan would have thought that if Zeller only went to the Sweet 16, his career would be judged as a bit of a failure...BUT, IU fans and media alike are spinning the defections to the NBA as nothing but a positive.  That's kind of fun to watch.

But, IU is just one of the programs in the B1G that will be ravaged by attrition this off-season.

Here is how the top of the conference will change next season:

IU
2013 starting five:
Zeller (So. C)*
Watford (Sr. F)
Oladipo (Jr. G)*
Hulls (Sr. G)
Ferrell (Fr. G)

2014 projected starters:
Vonleh (Fr. F)
Hollowell (So. F)
Sheehey (Sr. G/F)
Abell (Jr. G)
Ferrell (So. G)
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aOSU
2013 starting five:
Williams (So. C)
Thomas (Jr. F)*
Thompson (So. F)
Smith (Jr. G)
Craft (Jr. G)

2014 projected starters:

Williams (Jr. C)
Ross (Jr. F)
Thompson (Jr. F)
Smith (Sr. G)
Craft (Sr. G)
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MSU
2013 starting five:
Nix (Sr. F)
Payne (Jr. F)
Dawson (So. F)
Appling (Jr. G)
Harris (Fr. G)

2014 projected starters:

Payne (Sr. F)
Dawson (Jr. F)
Valentine (So. G)
Appling (Sr. G)
Harris (So. G)
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Wisconsin
2013 starting five:
Berggren (Sr. F/C)
Breusewitz (Sr. F)
Evans (Sr. F)
Brust (Jr. G)
Jackson (So. G)

2014 projected starters:
Dekker (So. F)
Kaminsky (Jr. F)
Gasser (Jr. G)
Brust (Jr. G)
Jackson (So. G)
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Michigan
2013 starting five:
Morgan (Jr. F)
Robinson (Fr. F)
Hardaway (Jr. G)
Sauskas (Fr. G)
Burke (So. G)*

2014 projected starters:
-McGary (So. C)
Morgan (Sr. F)
Robinson (So. F)
Stauskas (So. G)
Albrecht (So. G)

-McGary is still deciding if he'll stay or go to the NBA
_________________________

Other notes:
-Illinois graduates two guys who started for most of their careers in Paul and Richardson...and they lose an additional role player starter in McLaurin. In addition to these guys, three more guys have decided to transfer out of the program.
-Iowa returns four starters.
-Minnesota will hired Richard Pitino after reportedly being rejected by two or three coaches; will return three starters.  As of right now, Minnesota has an incoming class of zero.
-Northwestern hired Collins after Carmody continued NU's tradition of never making the NCAA tournament. They lose two starters, but Crawford will return from injury.  If I were a betting man, I'd put a quarter on Sobolewski being formed into an unlikable Hurley, Collins, Wojohowski type of player.
-Nebraska opens their new arena and looks to continue some of their improvement from the end of the season...loses two starters.
-Penn State loses only their sixth man...Chambers incoming class is one of the strongest for PSU since they entered the conference.  BUT PSU, during that same period has never had a player rated higher than 3-stars.
_________________________
The Forces of Good:
-Purdue's incoming Freshman class of Stephens (IL), Smotherman (IN) and Scott (IN) were all named to their all-state teams.
-Painter noted that he hopes everyone will return who is able to...of course, Purdue will lose Byrd and Anthrop to graduation.
-Rumors around Purdue transfers and defections are still just rumors...but the one that seems to have the most credence still, is Marcius. His locker has been cleaned out and he's been less involved in team activities, we've heard...Painter expressed that he wants him back, and told him so in his post-season interview.

But if he leaves, I guess I can't blame him. In spite of playing hard and being extremely productive down the stretch of the regular season, Hammons still started in the CBI.  Marcius might have taken that as a bit of a sign that his effort and productivity mattered less than Hammons potential, which is a shame.

If you follow us on Twitter, you might have seen AJohn's sentiment that he's looking forward to coming back and being a part of a team that gets much better in the off-season. BUT, his body language were indicative of a guy that struggled with consistency, focus and toughness at times. On top of that, he, along with Hale and Lawson, were rumored to be guys that didn't see eye-to-eye with Painter.

Keep in mind, all of those rumors are mere conjecture...But their lack of playing time during the last ten games of the season is something that was on display for all to see. We'll see what happens, I guess.
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BS' Early Prognostication

Here's the way I see the B1G shaking out in 2014 (as of right now):
1. aOSU
When was the last time you saw a Bucknut line-up with all Juniors and Seniors?? They'll be monsters.

2. MSU
Lots of returning talent...but MSU will be a much smaller team (top-to-bottom) than most Izzo squads.

3. Michigan
UM will have shooting, experience and good size...but even if McGary returns, they still lose a lot. Burke made everybody better and Hardaway did a lot of different things that helped the team.

4. Iowa
We all know Coach Fran is a pretty good coach.  Well, good coach plus a ton of veterans equals success.

5. Purdue
A few years ago, who would have thought a top-5 finish would be viewed as a success? In the wake of '13, in a tough conference, a top-5 season will probably mean Purdue will be ranked in the top-25...all while leaning heavily on Sophomores and Freshman.  A 21-23 win season should act as a stepping stone for a good one in '15. Painter really needs the team to get back to basics and needs them to win now.

6. Wisconsin
I never bet against Bo Ryan being in the mix for the B1G title...until now.

7. Indiana
Sheehey will go from annoying sixth man, to the guy that IU needs to be all-conference.  If he can make the leap, IU will be in the top third of the conference, if not, IU will struggle.  Also, Ferrell will need to play like UM's Burke for IU to be anywhere near where they were in '13.  All that said, IU will have a lot of talent on the roster, but their lack of leadership will hurt.

8. Illinois
Losing seven players in one season, regardless of how much they played, is a difficult pill to swallow for any program.  The Illini will need Bertrand, Abrams and Egwu to take big strides in the off-season in order for Illinois to make the tournament again in 2014. Illinois might get 20 wins next season...but how they get there will be much different than this season.  Don't look for Illinois to start out quickly next fall.

9. Minnesota
There will be growing pains for Goldy next year.  They'll still have some athletes that make jaw-dropping plays, but Minnesota fans might miss Tubby come March as Minnesota goes to the NIT.

10. Nebraska
Miles' team scratches and claws to more progress, but stays in the bottom-third of the tough B1G.

11. Northwestern
The Collins era begins in a fashion that's familiar to Northwestern fans.

12. Penn State
The cavernous Bryce Jordan Center stays mostly-empty for yet another winter as Penn State struggles to run with the thoroughbreds of the nation's best conference.
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More Guessing...

All Conference Team:
McGary UM
Payne MSU
Marble Iowa
Harris MSU
Craft aOSU

2nd Team:
Dekker Wisconson
Sheehey IU
Smith aOSU
T. Johnson Purdue
Appling MSU



*Denotes POY candidate in 2013

Boilermetrics: Power in the Big Ten

I'm back – I know it probably seemed like I was waiting for the Lions to win another game before I posted again, but instead it was just that work stuff. I prefer spending more time talking Purdue sports with the good folks here, but you know how that goes.

This is ENIAC, the first "computer". It correctly picked
CCNY to win both the NCAA and NIT in 1950,
but finished third in the office pool behind that tall
secretary who works for Mr. So-and-so and the guy who
picks up the punch cards and loads them for you.

Anyway, this is the first in an occasional series that I may have hinted at before: a more in-depth look at topics the other guys have covered (and a couple they may not), with a bit more emphasis on numbers. The title of the series comes from sabermetrics, baseball analysis through statistics. (Even though the term comes from baseball, it's loosely applied to similar analysis in other sports.)

A few things to keep in mind as you read this and future articles:

• Analysis in sports is relatively new and thus pretty rough in places, especially outside baseball. There will occasionally be things I refer to that will have changed recently or will change in the near future, as the people who create those models tweak them to better fit what they're studying. 
• Analysis is just another tool to help you understand what you're seeing. It's intended to complement rather than to replace observation. If the numbers tell you one thing and your eyes tell you something really different, the truth is likely in the middle somewhere.
• Along those lines, there's a lot that advanced statistics can't yet tell us about sports that aren't baseball. When we refer to an individual player's advanced stats, it's really shorthand for "that player's stats within his role on Purdue's team". We're a long way from being able to separate the contributions of a player from the effects of playing in the offense his team runs.

All right, let's get started. Open your textbooks to Chapter 1 ... the Big Ten.

For a few years now, people here and elsewhere have talked about the strength of the Big Ten in basketball and how it's the best conference in the country. (Well, the folks at EsPN mention the ACC a bit, but most people know the truth.) This year, so far, it's not even close. If you go over to kenpom.com – and I highly suggest you do, because his site has a ton of useful stats even for free, and for $20, you get a year's access to all of the cool stuff, some of which I'll be quoting – you'll see the Big Ten in first place by a mile, with the Big East chugging away in second and the Duke Conference a distant third. (To put it in perspective, the mean Big Ten team would be 33rd in the country; the Big East mean, 50th; the ACC mean, 63rd, and that would drop even further once Maryland walks this way. Of course, so would the Big Ten's mean ...)

Here's Ashley Russell to introduce
... what was I saying?

Of course the Big Ten is also a little top-heavy (woo!). Through Thursday's games, Michigan State was ranked 18th in the country by kenpom ... and was 6th in the Big Ten. Wisconsin sits at #11 and is a mere 5th in the conference. So keep that in mind as we go back through boilerdowd's power rankings: 6th here isn't anything at all like 6th in, say, the Pac-12. (#69 California.)

For each team, I'll list their ratings by boilerdowd, kenpom, Sagarin, Massey, and the good old RPI that EsPN duplicates (which, naturally, is behind a firewall – subscribers only). I'll then look at which of the Four Factors are their strengths and which are their weaknesses, and mention what, if anything, might have changed during conference play.

Playing for a #1 seed
1. Wisconsin (kenpom 11; Sagarin 15; Massey 23; RPI 41)The good: Avoiding turnovers. Their turnover percentage is 14.2%, best in Division I. (#2 is Michigan at 15.1%.) Combine that with their glacial offense, and you get standard Vince McMahon basketball: crush the life out of the ball, then dare you to hit the one shot they're going to give you.
The bad: Getting to the line. They average 30.3 FTA for every 100 FGA, 293rd in DI. This is good news if, say, you have foul-prone post players. Wisconsin is not going to get them on the bench early.
The B1G: They're pretty darn good so far. Winning in that place in Bloomington is no mean feat even when Indiana is down, and they're not down this year.
Non-con notes: Best win was 77-70 over #66 Arkansas at a neutral site; worst loss was 50-60 at #41 Marquette.

2. Michigan (kenpom 5; Sagarin 4; RPI 5; Massey 2)
The good: Um, most everything. Their effective FG% (multiply by FGA to get points scored off FGs; it gives you a single number to compare) is 57.9%, 2nd in DI. They don't foul (21.1 FTA/FGA, also 2nd) and don't give up offensive rebounds (24.8% of possible ORebs, 3rd in DI).
The bad: Getting to the line. Is there an echo in here? (Actually, Ryan and Beilein have similar styles they prefer to play. Beilein just has a ... different team this year.) 30.2 FTA/FGA, right behind Wisconsin.
The B1G: Freshmen is as freshmen does. aOSU gave them something they hadn't seen before, and the young guys did not respond well. Unfortunately for Michigan, youth is all they have (338th in experience; Kentucky is 339th).
Non-con notes: Best win was 67-62 vs. #9 Pittsburgh at a neutral site. Best loss was Tommy Amaker.

3. Minnesota (kenpom 8; Sagarin 6; RPI 6; Massey 8)
The good: Rebounding. 47.9% ORB%, 1st in the world. Yes, they get almost half their misses. You'd think that would give them a ton more FGA than their opponents ...
The bad: ... but instead they have a whopping 1 more attempt. Why? They allow a 35.0 OReb% at the other end, and their TO% on offense is terrible, 21.9% (249th). They're wasting a lot of opportunities.
The B1G: They might be a touch overrated. Losses at Indiana and to Michigan at home aren't necessarily a concern yet, but if Minnesota can't beat the other top teams, they could have a tough time getting a high NCAA seed. (Well, not that tough: they play Michigan and Ohio State once each.)
Non-con notes: Best win was 70-57 vs. #30 North Dakota State. I know, right? They're 16-3, with losses at Indiana, Minnesota, and Wisconsin-Green Bay. Only loss was 71-89 vs. #3 Duke at a neutral site.

4. Indiana (kenpom 4; Sagarin 7; RPI 12; Massey 11)
The good: Drawing fouls. 48.4 FGA/FTA, 4th in DI. (Notice how many of these are single-digit rankings? Toughest conference in America, yo.) They drive and chargedraw fouls and do it again and again, and then you have the waterboy in at center or something like that. Zeller: 7.0 fouls drawn per 40 minutes. Watford: 5.0/40 minutes. That's a third of your starting lineup fouling out per game, kind of.
The bad: Eh, not much. 19.2 TO% on offense, which is a bit high (106th). That's about it.
The B1G: Barring a matchup in Indianapolis, Watford and Hulls will leave without a win over Wisconsin. Games like that are why Crean has a rep for doing less with more. Indiana has two games against each of the other four contenders. If they can't catch one on an off night, they could end up being the best 10-loss team in the country.
Non-con notes: Best win was 87-61 vs. #30 North Dakota State, 2012 I-AA football champions. (Also the type of team that could scare a team in the first round, or else have the worst night of their lives to have a bad game.) Only loss was 86-88 to #35 Butler in OT at a "neutral" site.

Playing for a high seed
5. Ohio* (kenpom 10; Sagarin 12; RPI 26; Massey 12)
*ht mgoblog and Brady Hoke – slights at aOSU's expense are always funny
The good: Cleaning up the defensive glass. They allow 26.4 OReb%, 16th in the country (and 4th in the conference!). With a defensive Block% of 12.5, sometimes your offense won't even be one-and-done.
The bad: Getting to the line. (Who doesn't?) 34.3 FTA/FGA, 206th. It's not a big problem, but their eFG% is not elite-level (52.1%, 49th), and they don't rebound at their end as well as you'd think (34.8%, 87th), so without drawing fouls enough, they chip away at their offense enough to make it good instead of solid.
The B1G: Well, they beat Michigan and were whipped by Illinois, so I don't know. It's tempting to say that this Ohio team occasionally drops its guard; three times under Matta, OSU has been seeded #1 or #2 and has failed to reach the regional finals, so I'm going to stick with that theory.
Non-con notes: Best win was 77-66 vs. #73 Washington. Worst(?) loss was 66-74 vs. #6 Kansas. Beat the bad ones, lost to the good ones.

6. Michigan State (kenpom 18; Sagarin 20; RPI 16; Massey 17)
The good: Cleaning up the defensive glass. (Copycats!) 27.3 OReb% on defense, 25th overall. If you thought this was normally a strength of the Spartans, you'd be right.
The bad: Possession. Not as bad as Minnesota, but close: 21.1 TO%, 202nd. Combine it with their usual lack of three-point shooting, and they're just not the type of team that should put together a good run when they need one.
The B1G: No real change. They beat the bad teams and lost to the one good one they played (Minnesota).
Non-con notes: Best win was 67-64 vs. #6 Kansas at a neutral site. Worst loss was 62-66 vs. #47 Connecticut at a neutral site. Izzo doesn't mess around when he sets up the schedule.

Playing for a tournament seed
7. Illinois (kenpom 63; Sagarin 59; RPI 24; Massey 46)
The good: They kind of take care of the ball (18.0 TO%, 50th), although not so much in conference play (18.8%). They're better than they were at the end under Weber, but they are not a 12-0 team. (No, I can't explain the Butler win.)
The bad: Preventing offensive rebounds. 33.8 OReb% on defense, 239th. You'd expect that from a team that plays zone, and that may be a side effect of the switch from Weber (we know the Keady Rule: zone? what's a zone?) to Groce.
The B1G: They don't belong at the big kids' table. A loss at Purdue is one thing; a loss at home to Northwestern ... whoa. I know, I know, by 19 over aOSU. Blind squirrels, acorns.
Non-con notes: Best win was 85-74 at #12 Gonzaga (fluke). Only loss was 73-82 vs. #25 Missouri at a neutral site.

8. Iowa (kenpom 34; Sagarin 43; RPI 74; Massey 57)
The good: Defense. An eFG of 42.9% is 14th in the country, 2nd in the Big Ten behind Indiana. It's not the annoying foul machinepress they run under Dr. Tom ... well, it kind of is, a bit. Anyway, you're not going to get a lot of open looks against Iowa.
The bad: Shooting. 49.2% eFG. The elites run in the low- to mid-50s. The offense isn't particularly impressive in any other aspect, so scores like in their games with Indiana and Michigan State are not surprising, even for a high-tempo team: their strong defense and weak offense keep the score down anyway.
The B1G: They'll earn the bubble bid they'll get. Iowa is the Big Ten team this year that will be seeded about 3 spots higher than some people think they deserve; the selection committee will reward them for their schedule.
Non-con notes: Best win was 80-71 vs. #33 Iowa State. (Really?) Worst loss was 79-95 at #139 Virginia Tech, and that will hurt them come bracket time.


Playing to clear .500
9. Purdue (kenpom 79; Sagarin 95; RPI 106; Massey 101)
The good: Defense. (Because obvs.) 43.2 eFG%, 20th overall. You will not get easy shots ...
The bad: ... but you will still have an advantage, because on offense, you'll see 45.5 eFG%. That would be last in a normal year, last by far (the next Big Ten team above the Boilers is Iowa, at 49.2%), but thanks to the New Guys, there's worse. Three-point shooting is bad (29.8%, 295th). Two-point shooting is bad (45.7%, 228th). Free throw shooting, not even part of eFG, is bad (62.9%, 313th). Purdue would be fine if it weren't for shooting. Unfortunately, yeah, that's the whole game.
The B1G: The Boilers won't be an easy out in Mackey. Mind you, the aOSU game wasn't as close as it looked – the Buckeyes' win probability never dropped below 75.6% – but it was still only a 10-point loss.
Non-con notes: Best win was 73-61 at #74 Clemson. Worst loss was 44-47 at #288 Eastern Michigan, the lowest-ranked team to beat any Big Ten team this season.

10. Northwestern without Drew Crawford (kenpom 90; Sagarin 85; RPI 84; Massey 72)
The good: Holding onto the ball. 17.4%, 29th overall. Naturally, Crawford was a key to that, with a 13.1% rate himself.
The bad: Playing without Crawford. They don't rebound well (27.8 OReb%, 294th; 33.1 OReb% against, 221st), and the one thing they did well is going to drop now. Watch for those ratings to plummet as the season progresses.
The B1G: Northwestern isn't deep enough to survive an injury to a key player. Illinois aside, the Wildcats are barely enough to challenge Purdue. Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa (?!) smoked them. Three of their next four games are against Indiana, Michigan again, and Minnesota again. Sorry, guys. Maybe 2014?
Non-con notes: Best win was 74-70 at #37 Baylor, a sign of things that cannot be now. Worst loss was 44-50 vs. #144 Illinois-Chicago, with Drew Crawford playing 36 minutes.

Playing because they are contractually obligated to
11. Nebraska (kenpom 162; Sagarin 141; RPI 66(!); Massey 119)
The good: Rebounding on defense. 27.0 OReb%, 24th. (Is this something bad teams do? Aside from Northwestern, that is.) Also, they're polite, and they're always on time.
The bad: Their choice of conference. Also, their offensive efficiency is 94.5 - more than 5% below average, 252nd in DI. Penn State is the only other Big Ten team below 100. They're just not good.
The B1G: Nebraska – you. You're not good.
Non-con notes: Best win was 50-48 vs. #76 Valparaiso. Worst loss was 60-74 vs. #111 Kent State. (MAC teams, man.)

12. Penn State (kenpom 201; Sagarin 195; RPI 162; Massey 167)
The good: Rebounding on defense. 24.9 OReb%, 4th in the country (behind Colorado State, Boise State, and Michigan). That's ... about it.
The bad: The loss of Tim Frazier, and shooting. Team eFG%: 44.2, 302nd. You can get all the defensive rebounds in the world, but it won't matter if you can't shoot. Also, they are fouling machines: 48.7 FTA/FGA at the defensive end, 337th (of 347). That's horrible. The next lowest power-conference team is Villanova at 302nd.
The B1G: When they play Nebraska, BTN will be sorry.
Non-con notes: Best win was 60-57 vs. #38 Bucknell, and they won't hear the end of that for a long time. Worst loss was 61-73 vs. #126 Boston College.

Hazell's Double Duty and Gumbo

This is a pretty slow time for Purdue sports...but things are going on behind the scenes.

Our underdog Boiler football team is preparing for a bowl with a skeleton crew of coaches, the basketball team is in the midst of a much-needed bye week, of sorts, and Purdue's new football coach is splitting time between his current/former job and his new/current job...and seems to be doing OK at it.

The NCAA issued him the waiver that Morgan Burke talked about during the press conference that officially announced his hiring...and right away, Hazell was on the road seeking to hold on to the verbal commitments to the program and possibly get a few more.

His top two priorities were Rivals 4-star QB Danny Etling and 3-star RB David Yancey.  Both will be mid-year enrollees, both were impressed with Purdue's new HC, and both are sticking to their commitments to wear the metallic beige gold and black.

If Hazell's living room presence is anything like his press conference presence, we can all understand why these guys both recommitted. He's got ten more in-home visits to make to verbals, a couple to make to guys who de-committed and a few to try to pick up to round out the class.

Before he even made a visit, he picked up a verbal from a Florida DB with offers from Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Florida and others.  Hope and his staff clearly did the ground work on Leroy Clark, but the hire of Hazell got the deal done.

While our Boilers will lose some Seniors in key positions, Danny Hope left the cupboard far from bare...and the focus on speed during the recruiting process is something that Hazell and his yet-to-be-named coaching staff should be able to utilize.

Hazell said he loves road trips because driving gives him a chance to think through everything that's going on in life...he'll have plenty of time to get his mind right as he drives hundreds, if not thousands of miles in the month and one-half...with a built-in no-contact period smack dab in the center of that timespan along with Christmas and Kent State's bowl.  Busy bee.

Basketball
On Saturday, Purdue will look to get their biggest win of the season thus far as they make the short trip South to Indy to play the hated Irish and Scott Martin.  It's too bad that Hummel didn't get a 15th year like his childhood pal so he could pistol whip ole scott, but it didn't work out that way...so the suddenly-sloppy Boilers will have the daunting task of beating an experienced and large UND team that is fundamentally-sound and has a bunch of scorers.

I'm hoping Byrd becomes the sixth man off of the bench as he was last season and Purdue begins to run a lot more.  With their shooting woes, multiple slashers and trouble with full-court presses, it seems the best thing to do for this squad would be to not let opposing defenses get set up...and as the Eastern Michigan game showed, this team's halfcourt game leaves a lot to be desired.  On top of that, the usually hard-nosed defense has been replaced with inconsistent effort as some of the young guys simply look gassed with regularity.

Whether it's running or gutting out victories, Purdue has to change in a hurry in order to simply be respectable, let-alone get to the NIT...not NCAA tournament. Matty and his capable staff have their work cut out for them...and I have faith in these guys. BUT, it's gonna feel like it's them against the world as Mackey will continue to have thousands of empties (sadly, mind you) as Purdue's Pups seek cohesion and identity.

Less-Important Basketball
There's no doubt this season has been disappointing so far.  A loss to a MAC team is pretty awful...and the loss to Villanova (who lost 4 of their next 5) looks pretty damned bad too. But surprises, both good and bad aren't limited to God's country right now.

Kentucky's always star-studded cast has three losses, UNC's four and five-star studded lineup can't manage to get a quality win...and the B1G is loaded to the gills.

If you're like me, it's tough to swallow the idea of Purdue being in the bottom of the conference...but this medicine might be what we all have to swallow this season.  Penn State, the Gasser-less Badgers our Boilers, Nebraska and the always mild (come March) Cats might be fighting amongst themselves for the bottom third of the conference crown in the coming months.  The rest of the conference seems to be monstrous...and all power ranking polls agree.  If nothing else, Purdue will have opportunities for quality wins this season...the question is, will they get them?  (And will Mackey become a tough place to play again this season?)

Humbling
One of my favorite things to do, in relation to this site, is talk to fellow Boiler alums and sports fans and then see if they know/visit the site.  I got to do that last night at my wife's work Christmas party. It is always motivating and humbling for me to talk to people that make BS part of their daily ritual, whether on here, Twitter or FB. Thanks to everyone who reads the site and the other outlets. It's appreciated.