The Changing B1G Basketball Landscape

If you're looking ahead to next season, it's prudent to start with the reigning champion of the conference...and with IU's recent defections, it makes even more sense to do so.

We all know IU will look different in 2013. I read someplace that they're the first program to ever lose four 1,000 point scorers in one off-season.  That'll leave a mark. So is it more amazing that four guys that reached the millennial mark are all gone in the same off-season, OR that a team that had four 1,000 point scorers (on one starting five) never got past the Sweet 16? You guys can discuss that  question amongst yourselves.

What we do know is that it's difficult to lose four starters...regardless of whom those starters are.  It's even tougher when a team loses its heart and soul; IU has lost both.

We had a ton of IU fans assure us that Zeller was going to stay because he needed to develop.  Bad news, friends: Crean's system wasn't helping him develop...in fact, it seemingly was making him worse.  It seems that we weren't the only ones who thought this.  Ex-IU player and coach, and current radio/TVpersonality, Dan Dakich encouraged Zeller to go pro as a way to help him develop.  Zeller wasn't used effectively and his bad habits weren't coached out of him.  As the season progressed, his shoulder got lower and lower when he drove...and officials were all but forced to call the charge on the 7 footer whose shoulder height would have made a running back jealous.

Zeller told the press that he had planned all along to go pro after his Sophomore year...but IU fans told us a different story.  We were told that his parents valued academics so much that he wouldn't leave until he had graduated...He has 35 credit hours remaining. Some told us that he just loved the school too much to leave.  It sounds like he really liked IU, but he loved his teammates, namely those leaving and graduating...so that made his decision easier.

A word of unsolicited advice to my IU friends and anyone else who wants to adamantly predict the actions of another person: It's not a good idea to try to guess what's in another person's head, especially an 18/19 year old kid.

Zeller wisely chose to leave...and in his decision's wake, IU fans were seriously asking, "Won't IU be better without him?" Many continued, "He was too soft." I mean, why wouldn't someone want to stay and play in front of fans like that??? Ammiright?

Zeller was a very good college basketball player...and now that he's no longer at IU, I hope he does OK on the next level; glad he's gone, wish him no ill will.  Afterall, he officially made an excellent decision yesterday.  All that said, I'd guess that three years ago, the average IU fan would have thought that if Zeller only went to the Sweet 16, his career would be judged as a bit of a failure...BUT, IU fans and media alike are spinning the defections to the NBA as nothing but a positive.  That's kind of fun to watch.

But, IU is just one of the programs in the B1G that will be ravaged by attrition this off-season.

Here is how the top of the conference will change next season:

IU
2013 starting five:
Zeller (So. C)*
Watford (Sr. F)
Oladipo (Jr. G)*
Hulls (Sr. G)
Ferrell (Fr. G)

2014 projected starters:
Vonleh (Fr. F)
Hollowell (So. F)
Sheehey (Sr. G/F)
Abell (Jr. G)
Ferrell (So. G)
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aOSU
2013 starting five:
Williams (So. C)
Thomas (Jr. F)*
Thompson (So. F)
Smith (Jr. G)
Craft (Jr. G)

2014 projected starters:

Williams (Jr. C)
Ross (Jr. F)
Thompson (Jr. F)
Smith (Sr. G)
Craft (Sr. G)
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MSU
2013 starting five:
Nix (Sr. F)
Payne (Jr. F)
Dawson (So. F)
Appling (Jr. G)
Harris (Fr. G)

2014 projected starters:

Payne (Sr. F)
Dawson (Jr. F)
Valentine (So. G)
Appling (Sr. G)
Harris (So. G)
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Wisconsin
2013 starting five:
Berggren (Sr. F/C)
Breusewitz (Sr. F)
Evans (Sr. F)
Brust (Jr. G)
Jackson (So. G)

2014 projected starters:
Dekker (So. F)
Kaminsky (Jr. F)
Gasser (Jr. G)
Brust (Jr. G)
Jackson (So. G)
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Michigan
2013 starting five:
Morgan (Jr. F)
Robinson (Fr. F)
Hardaway (Jr. G)
Sauskas (Fr. G)
Burke (So. G)*

2014 projected starters:
-McGary (So. C)
Morgan (Sr. F)
Robinson (So. F)
Stauskas (So. G)
Albrecht (So. G)

-McGary is still deciding if he'll stay or go to the NBA
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Other notes:
-Illinois graduates two guys who started for most of their careers in Paul and Richardson...and they lose an additional role player starter in McLaurin. In addition to these guys, three more guys have decided to transfer out of the program.
-Iowa returns four starters.
-Minnesota will hired Richard Pitino after reportedly being rejected by two or three coaches; will return three starters.  As of right now, Minnesota has an incoming class of zero.
-Northwestern hired Collins after Carmody continued NU's tradition of never making the NCAA tournament. They lose two starters, but Crawford will return from injury.  If I were a betting man, I'd put a quarter on Sobolewski being formed into an unlikable Hurley, Collins, Wojohowski type of player.
-Nebraska opens their new arena and looks to continue some of their improvement from the end of the season...loses two starters.
-Penn State loses only their sixth man...Chambers incoming class is one of the strongest for PSU since they entered the conference.  BUT PSU, during that same period has never had a player rated higher than 3-stars.
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The Forces of Good:
-Purdue's incoming Freshman class of Stephens (IL), Smotherman (IN) and Scott (IN) were all named to their all-state teams.
-Painter noted that he hopes everyone will return who is able to...of course, Purdue will lose Byrd and Anthrop to graduation.
-Rumors around Purdue transfers and defections are still just rumors...but the one that seems to have the most credence still, is Marcius. His locker has been cleaned out and he's been less involved in team activities, we've heard...Painter expressed that he wants him back, and told him so in his post-season interview.

But if he leaves, I guess I can't blame him. In spite of playing hard and being extremely productive down the stretch of the regular season, Hammons still started in the CBI.  Marcius might have taken that as a bit of a sign that his effort and productivity mattered less than Hammons potential, which is a shame.

If you follow us on Twitter, you might have seen AJohn's sentiment that he's looking forward to coming back and being a part of a team that gets much better in the off-season. BUT, his body language were indicative of a guy that struggled with consistency, focus and toughness at times. On top of that, he, along with Hale and Lawson, were rumored to be guys that didn't see eye-to-eye with Painter.

Keep in mind, all of those rumors are mere conjecture...But their lack of playing time during the last ten games of the season is something that was on display for all to see. We'll see what happens, I guess.
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BS' Early Prognostication

Here's the way I see the B1G shaking out in 2014 (as of right now):
1. aOSU
When was the last time you saw a Bucknut line-up with all Juniors and Seniors?? They'll be monsters.

2. MSU
Lots of returning talent...but MSU will be a much smaller team (top-to-bottom) than most Izzo squads.

3. Michigan
UM will have shooting, experience and good size...but even if McGary returns, they still lose a lot. Burke made everybody better and Hardaway did a lot of different things that helped the team.

4. Iowa
We all know Coach Fran is a pretty good coach.  Well, good coach plus a ton of veterans equals success.

5. Purdue
A few years ago, who would have thought a top-5 finish would be viewed as a success? In the wake of '13, in a tough conference, a top-5 season will probably mean Purdue will be ranked in the top-25...all while leaning heavily on Sophomores and Freshman.  A 21-23 win season should act as a stepping stone for a good one in '15. Painter really needs the team to get back to basics and needs them to win now.

6. Wisconsin
I never bet against Bo Ryan being in the mix for the B1G title...until now.

7. Indiana
Sheehey will go from annoying sixth man, to the guy that IU needs to be all-conference.  If he can make the leap, IU will be in the top third of the conference, if not, IU will struggle.  Also, Ferrell will need to play like UM's Burke for IU to be anywhere near where they were in '13.  All that said, IU will have a lot of talent on the roster, but their lack of leadership will hurt.

8. Illinois
Losing seven players in one season, regardless of how much they played, is a difficult pill to swallow for any program.  The Illini will need Bertrand, Abrams and Egwu to take big strides in the off-season in order for Illinois to make the tournament again in 2014. Illinois might get 20 wins next season...but how they get there will be much different than this season.  Don't look for Illinois to start out quickly next fall.

9. Minnesota
There will be growing pains for Goldy next year.  They'll still have some athletes that make jaw-dropping plays, but Minnesota fans might miss Tubby come March as Minnesota goes to the NIT.

10. Nebraska
Miles' team scratches and claws to more progress, but stays in the bottom-third of the tough B1G.

11. Northwestern
The Collins era begins in a fashion that's familiar to Northwestern fans.

12. Penn State
The cavernous Bryce Jordan Center stays mostly-empty for yet another winter as Penn State struggles to run with the thoroughbreds of the nation's best conference.
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More Guessing...

All Conference Team:
McGary UM
Payne MSU
Marble Iowa
Harris MSU
Craft aOSU

2nd Team:
Dekker Wisconson
Sheehey IU
Smith aOSU
T. Johnson Purdue
Appling MSU



*Denotes POY candidate in 2013

Fast forward exactly one year from now...

Make your predictions in the comment section:

-What seed will Purdue be in the B1G tourney?
-Who's the starting five?
-National ranking (if any)?
-What else has changed in the conference?

2014 B1G Tourney seeding:
#1 MSU
#2 UM
#3 aOSU
#4 Purdue
#5 IU
#6 Wisconsin

Purdue national ranking: #19

Purdue starting 5:

1 RonJohn
2 TJohn
3 RayDay
4 Hale
5 Hammons

Sixth man: Simpson

Purdue forecasted as 4 or 5 in NCAA tourney

-After losing a heartbreaker to Steve Alford's New Mexico team in the round of 16, IU's Olidipo decides to leave for the NBA...Zeller stays. Tom Crean blames Alford for ruining the conference (for leaving Iowa) and ruining IU's program (for not coaching there) following the game.

-Trey Burke's flirtation with the NBA in '12 becomes much more serious in '13 as he heads to the NBA...the rest of UM's team stays in spite of tourney run to the elite 8.

-Tubby Smith fired from Minnesota after Minnesota misses the NCAA tournament. In an effort to get back to dirty basketball, Minny hires Ben Howland after he's fired by UCLA.

-Illinois' second season in Champaign starts slowly after Illini lose large Senior class...Makes 2014 NCAA tourney.

-aOSU's Deshaun Thomas leaves aOSU after Buckeyes lose in the round of 32 to VCU.

(since I can't see the future, some of this is tongue-in-cheek...other parts are my best guess; you can decide which parts are serious)

Boiler Football 2012 Poll: Sound Off, Yo.

Online Surveys & Market Research

What's Ahead?

It's Monday...and the last few weeks, it's been hard to find things to talk about following being crushed, so I'm going to look ahead a bit.

Our Boilers could get another win (or even two if the stars align) this season...but it seems the best money would have Purdue ending the season with 4 or 5 wins. Blame it on injuries, the schedule or whatever you'd like. But the state of the program is what it is.

For two straight seasons, we as Purdue fans been reduced to saying things like, "they're young" or "injuries are killing them". These are both truths, but they don't change the fact that these statements are typically those of fans who follow "rebuilding programs" or simply programs that aren't winning.

BUT, before the deluge of injuries this season, Purdue lost to UND and Toledo. Both of these are looking worse and worse as time passes. And, the difference in Hope's staff and the Purdue program taking any steps really forward really lie in those to defeats, it seems. But the past is the past and that can't be changed.

Now looking ahead...

Offensively, the situation is dicey.

In the Spring, Bolden, Marve, K. Smith (if he decides/is able to return) and possibly Ross & Pamphile will probably still be unavailable due to injuries. Add in the normal 2 or 3 players out due to surgery and what are you left with?

Well, Dierking, C. Smith, Carlos, Kerrigan, Werner, Prater, Pierce, Adams and Lindsay will all be gone due to graduation.

So, you'll have Henry v. TerBush (or Robinson) at QB...that position seems OK- at least one should be able to hit receivers in stride for drills.

At WR, there's a ton of speed, but really no one who has shown they can catch the ball consistently outside of Edison and Siller. So, it's Siller, Edison, Bush, Gravesande, Reese, Tommie Thomas and Torwodzu...like I said, talent/speed is fine here...but there are still a ton of questions in the receiving corps that need to be answered.

At tight end, Gabe Holmes is the only guy in the stable that's seen significan't playing time. Sinz and Flood should both be contributors in '11.

Then, at RB Hope will have, ATM (who hasn't played at a consistent high level) and Pegram (who has barely played at all) available. After that, a bunch of fullbacks- Freytag, Crank and Jackson...and we all know how often the FB is used in this offense.

The OL actually should be fine...lots of different guys have seen PT that will be available in the spring. But next season, for the first time in a long time, we might see an OL that averages under 300 pounds...I think you have to go back 15 years to find the last time that's happened. Reference Michigan to see if that's a good thing in the Big Ten.

Much like last spring, the offense will not be able to field two solid units due to attrition for a number of reasons...and who is to say whether or not Marve and Bolden will EVER be able to play at a high level again? As you all know, I like both of these guys and hate seeing it- hope they can both get degrees at the very least. But what we're left with is a team that needs time and needs reps as it is a program that has to develop players over seasons/off-seasons...and this coming spring looks like it might be of little value from a developmental standpoint...much like last spring.

Defensively, the personnel looks much better, surprisingly.

Purdue will have Maci at one DE...he's gonna be solid at the very least- kind of like Kevin Nesfield a few years ago. But, he doesn't seem to be cut from the same cloth as the great DEs of the past 15 years. Opposite him, Gooden will be a Senior...but his play seems to be declining with time. Can you remember a DE in recent memory who has had more opportunity and less-production? It doesn't seem to matter that he's flanked by a guy that's perpetually double-teamed and two DTs that are very good...he has yet to show significant improvement. After those two, I don't see a guy at DE that I'm really excited to see on the field...hopefully someone develops and I'm wrong. I think Mebane might still develop, but he still is built like an LB (and a lean one at that)...Hopefully Higgs is moved in the off-season to add depth to the group. Honestly, I don't know what the other options are.

At tackle, Purdue seems kinda rich, especially in comparison to other positions. Short and Gaston are guys that most teams would want on their roster- great size, great footwork, good motors. Isaac, Kitchens, Taylor & McDaniel bolster the position...DT should be solid.

At LB, there's some talent, speed and size. Carlino and Holland finish what seems to be, their 15th years on campus working hard but missing a ton of tackles in the process. I don't have any problem with these two, because their attitude and work ethic seem to be a real positive...plus, there's depth at the position. Beckford, Greaves, Lucas and Gilliam should all be in the mix in '11.

The DBs should be a solid unit- Allen, Johnson and Williams are are starters at CB. Eargle and Charlot, with everyone healthy, are solid off the bench. Evans, when healthy is a very hard-hitter who is solid in coverage. After these guys, Aristide might still pan out (but I have a feeling he might not finish at Purdue)...Harris and E.J. Johnson should both contribute significantly next season.

The kickers & punters should all be fine...but I'm still not pleased with what I see from the Special teams units as a whole. Poor spacing, poor and nonchalant handling of the ball and bad tackling are recurring problems that won't go anywhere if changes aren't made on Special teams.

Many correctly call a Purdue a developmental program- one that develops marginally-rated players out of high school into good football players by the time they leave campus. I'd agree that with the way recruiting tends to go for our Boilers, that this assessment is correct. That said, we saw last Spring come and go with little development, and few steps taken forward, due to Purdue not having enough hands on deck to scrimmage effectively or even do some drills the right way. This off-season, especially on the offensive side of the ball, things look similar.

Granted guys like Edgerton, Bergler, Noel, Durrett and more-recently, Barbarette and TerBush have helped the entire team develop by being Spring football studs...but a season of dashed potential and uncertainty looks like it's going to be followed up by an off-season of healing and more question marks at multiple positions.

Lots can change in the coming months...I understand that. In the meantime, hopefully we'll have something to talk about next Monday other than another loss in which the game is never in doubt, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Arriving

We all know that Robert Marve is on the way and will probably play a significant role for Purdue in the '10 season. But, what I'd like to do is look at some players from last year's roster that are set to burst on the scene and make a significant impact.

Here are 7 to watch:

Gerald Gooden 2 (new number)

6'3" 235lb. Junior Defensive End

With Kerrigan's reputation now at the level of which opposing coaches must gameplan for him, Gooden will have one-on-one matchups...and he's no slouch. He's cut from similar cloth as the D-Ends that have made their names at Purdue in the last decade. Fast off the corner, very athletic and with a great motor.

Cortez Smith 81

6'2" 180lb. Senior Wide Receiver

This JuCo product didn't have a ton of production until the second half of the season. But, he has big play ability, as IU and Michigan both know. With a pass-happy offense, someone's gotta make catches that Valentin made in '09, and as Keith Carlos proved he didn't have great hands last season, Smith proved he was sure-handed. Plus, this guy just looks like a wide receiver- he's reminiscent of the long, athletic receivers seen at FSU in the late-90s and, especially until some of the young guys are up to speed on the offensive system. His long arms, good hands and big heart will make him a guy that Marve knows he can count on.

Ugly is the new beautiful

Kawann Short 93

6'3" 310lb. Sophomore Defensive Tackle

Mike Neal's graduation leaves a vacuum...and I think I know the guy that will fill it.

Short showed a bit last season, and didn't need to be an every down guy since Neal was so durable. But, his size and athleticism was undeniable. He was an AAU and HS basketball standout in highschool...and has the footwork to show it. He can bullrush, stop the run and even chase down an unexpecting quarterback from behind. He also has enthusiasm that's contagious in the huddle and his personality will surely become more and more evident as he finds himself become a leader on the field. I think he'll also play a key role in the development of Bruce Gaston.

Antwon Higgs 5

6'3" 248lb. Sophomore Linebacker

An injury kept him out of the spring (like about everybody else). But, as the '09 season progressed, he was nearly-impossible to keep off of the field. He's got DE size and strength and linebacker quickness...so you might see him with his hand in the dirt from time-to-time in the fall. He's a sure tackler and has a mean streak that I really like to see...but off the field, he seems like a good dude.

Albert Evans 32

6'0" 206lb. Junior Safety

Evans has a very important role as the anchor of an extremely-young defensive backfield. I don't expect perfection of him as I think he's going to be forced to help out a lot, but I do expect him to be great in run support, a sure open-field tackler and a pretty nasty hitter if an unfortunate receiver forgets about him back there.

Nick Mondek 62 (new number)

6'5" 285lb. Junior Offensive Tackle

Danny Hope has a knack of making guys into great offensive linemen. I think his next great switch is Mondek. Mondek was a pretty solid defensive tackle the past two years, but seems to be a guy who is made for the offensive line. He has very long arms and is strong so he can create space, plus, he seems to have a frame that will be able to add a few more pounds to inch him closer to 300. But, I don't think it's needed as his quickness and strength is already there. I'm not sure if he'll be starting at the beginning of the season, but think he will by the end. Also, he seems to be a guy who takes things personally on the football field...I think this is a good trait as offensive linemen need a chip on their shoulder. He might become one of Marve's bestest pals in the fall.

Al-Terek McBurse 5

6'0" 198lb. Sophomore Running Back

This one's a pretty easy call to make and is simply a must for Purdue to have success in '10. We all loved watching Ralph Bolden play last season- his combination of speed, power and pass-catching prowess was like no running back I've seen at Purdue in 20 years. But, Bolden probably won't be available in the fall, so ATM is the man. McBurse's speed was easy to spot, both on special teams and in his limited duty as backu-up RB last season. But, I'm not sure if he has the type of running style that can break a ton of tackles. That said, he's very shifty and if he gets into the second level, he can run away from about anyone. I also don't know about his hands...but, if Dierking, Crank and Carlos can just make a few plays a game, ATM's long-striding, straight-up style (reminiscent of Tyrone Wheatley) might prove to be pretty tough to stop. Plus, don't forget Marve is a great runner and the triple option is based on the threat of the QB run and the initial read. ATM might get fat off of his quarterback's ability to read.

Evil Genius?

I'll admit I'm not a big fan of Jim Delany...if you've been coming to the site for a while, you know that. But, I'll also admit when he does something right.

The creation of the BTN was brilliant...and he deserves credit for it. But, Delany has pissed me off time and time again with his consistent poo poo-ing of the idea of a playoff in football. He said it was tradition and academics that keeps a football playoff from becoming a reality...We all know those reasons weren't the story; it was about money. I don't fault Delany for steering the conference in a manner that makes it money, I talked about that earlier today. I don't like B.S...no, of course I'm not talking about the greatest website in all of the land.

But, some think that Delany is not only brilliant, but he's the best poker player ever and has a diabolical streak that would make Dr. Evil jealous.
I doubt Delany is as shrewd as Warren Buffett, as brilliant as Nikola Tesla or plays cards like "Jesus" Ferguson...but, if what Wetzel and others are saying is true, he's definitely one of the gods of the college sports world.

Unwanted Praise: A New Feature at BS

Months ago, J and I asked the lemmings not to jump on the bandwagon for '10/'11...but they already are disregarding our request.

Our favorite guys Goodman, Katz and others are already gushing over the good guys...but I don't wanna hear it.

Some of the BTN writers are A-OK with me...and maybe there's 2 people in the building in Bristol that we'll love to hear from, regarding their perspective on our favorite college basketball team. But that's about it.

Here's an unimportant, pre-mature top-25 from one of the heads at EsPN. Oddly enough, Butler's #3...crazy how that works out.

The only dumb poll that matters: BS 2010 Men's Premature Top 10

Only 3 teams are allowed to join the Boilers in Houston next April

Our basketball coverage will shift to other things in the coming weeks...but we'll have a few more features in the near future that you won't want to miss. Specifically- what can JJ learn from Boilerdowd in the off-season? Stay plugged-in to find out.

One thing that seems extremely-evident to me as I look ahead to next season is just how strong the Big Ten is going to be. Three familiar teams will once-again be in the national top-10 from Purdue's conference, in my opinion and three-more will be in the top-25.

While it's not real fair to already be looking forward to next season...I'm going to go ahead and do it. Lots will change with defections, transfers and mystery late signees...but my poll is no more or less-stupid than those that'll be coming out from the big media outlets in the coming weeks. So kick back and enjoy the frivolity of a stupidly-early poll.

And away we go...

10. Georgetown
As long as Ohio's not on the schedule too many times, Georgetown could win quite a few games before the new year.

9. Kansas State
The loss of Clemente will hurt, but KSU athleticism will still be immense next season.

8. North Carolina
While UNC did a fine job keeping themselves out of the rankings last season, I just can't. I think Williams is a great coach...and a couple more 5-star players might finally make the Tarheels a respectable team.

7. Syracuse
Onuaku's injury might have cut salesman Boeheim's season short, but a 5-star 7-footer is good for what ails ya. This ranking might be a bit high if a few guys decide it's time to leave the warmth of upstate NY.

6. aOSU
National POY leaves? No problem when you've got Thad Matta and an unobtrusive AD behind him. Diebler, Bufford, Lauderdale will be bolstered by some of the most-skilled and physically-developed Freshman in the land. This team might be better than the '09/'10 team...but a true point guard must emerge for that to happen. I'll miss Mark Titus.

5. Kentucky
Teflon John is currently quietly hooking a boat full of "undecided" Freshman as the majority of this year's class of student athletes makes their final decision to not return.

4. Purdue
If JJ's back, Purdue will once-again enjoy a spot in the top-5 for most of the season. Look for T. Johnson to possibly start right away. As a fan, am I being too greedy to ask for a healthy Ostrich for the last third of the season? Be ready for an angry Smooge to make an early and loud statement to the nation.

stay put, JJ

3. Butler
Brad Stevens went through three coaching legends to end the season...and was about six inches from being undefeated in those contests. No hotter young coach in the nation right now. Plus, 4 of 5 starters back on the National runner-up squad if Heyward returns...perhaps more than 7,000 Butler fans will show up on opening night?

2. Duke
5-Star Irving replaces Scheyer and each of the Plumlee clones will take Goonbek and Thomas' spots

1. Michigan State
Morgan's the only significant loss...and if your name doesn't rhyme with Dom Bizzo, you might not think it's a significant loss at all. So, with a monster 6'10" 5-star center in the pipeline, Chubby McGreen might still not earn a role in the starting line-up. But regardless of whom is starting, they'll be great.



Did I miss any? Un-possible. If you think so, sound off.

Who's Ready To Step Up?

If you're like me, right now, you're looking for something...anything to scratch that itch created by the void of not having college football for the last 6 months. And let the truth be known, there's not a lot out there that can do that. But, online publications know about addicts like you and I and are slowly trickling out their early looks at the college football world.

Here are a couple of notes from three of these publications:
Scout.com's Pete Fuitak hasn't yet made his prognostication for the season, but sounds like he thinks it could go any number of ways...but most of Purdue's success will be measured by quarterback consistency. He also likes a few returning players on Purdue's roster, specifically Ryan Kerrigan and newcomer Kawaan Short. Fuitak's analysis is pretty solid...perhaps he can take over the beleaguered Boiler Sports Report?

The next stop, the NYT Blogs Countdown of the 120 D-1 College football teams. They mention us, which helps them earn brownie points...but atop being awesome because they've stopped by BS, their opinion of our Boilers for next season seems to have some wiggle room. Paul Myerberg looks at Joey Elliott as the lynchpin for the season...and seems to intimate that if Elliot can't get the job done physically, Purdue's just biding its time until Marve can get behind the center. He also is bothered by the void the graduated, Anthony "Heywood" leaves at LB...but thinks Purdue's DBs are really the story on defense. A No. 94 ranking is a tough pill to swallow, but who can blame him for placing Purdue there?

Matt Hinton at Rivals.com uses some pretty sound statistical analysis to look at our Boilers. My favorite portion of the article is his look at Purdue versus the top 25 in the last four seasons. While the 0-13 record is an easy thing to focus upon, I like that it's in there to remind us why Purdue had to move on and start rebuilding toward the future. And his opinion, our Boilers aren't in a state of re-modeling, but a demolition and complete rebuild are underway...the depth chart, especially in the skilled positions shows that he might be correct.

Something to think about- Hinton also aludes to the fact that Purdue's in the position it is in because they simply don't have the horses in the stable, right now...and the last five recruting classes' rankings tell that tale well- 29, 50, 59, 63, 74...but then again, isn't this Purdue's M.O. really? Kerrigan is a case in point- he was reccruited by MAC schools, Cincy, IU and Purdue...and he's developed into a very good end, and might be pretty darned good by the time he leaves West Lafayette.

And that leads me to what Purdue must become...and in a hurry! Our Boilers under Joe Tiller had guys like Nick Hardwick, Craig Terrill, Curtis Painter and many others come into Purdue quietly and leave via the NFL draft. Under Tiller, Purdue was a developmental team- seldom did a player come in as highly touted, play from day one and end his career as a star en route to the NFL.

So the challenge Danny Hope has at this point is blending the old with the new- the developmental players recruited to play in Tiller's system and the speedy skilled guys that are going to be asked to step up right away. That's why many heady prognosticators and Purdue fans alike think Hope's first season will be a 3-5 win season...Purdue football is in the midst of an overhaul of a roster, changes to a team philosophy and the purging of some bad habits that had crept in over the last five seasons. A difficult set of tasks, no doubt, but not impossible.

The worst case scenario I've read is a 1-11 season...the best is an 8-win season. And truth be known, I think an 8-win season would be miraculous, ridiculous...just as absurd really, as a one-win season. But, to sqeeze out enough wins to even almost make a bowl game, Hope is going to have to have a few guys surpise their BT opponents...so who are the players that might surpise people? Here are a few numbers that you, as Purdue fans should commit to memory, in my opinion:

Offense:
I think the offensive line is going to be noteworthy...and honestly, they'll have to be. Everybody knows the quarterback by default, so he's disqualified.

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-Ken Plue has the size and strength to be All-Conference...and as he continues to get a bit lighter, he'll have very good footwork this season. Look for Plue to swallow up a linebacker or 10 on delays.

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-Ralph Bolden will benefit from Plue as much as anybody outside of Joey Elliott. Bolden should be able to get low and hide from defensive linemen before exploding through the hole and getting into the second level of the defense.

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-Keith Smith is still relatively a novice at wide receiver...and last season, according to his coach he was a bit chubby. If you attended the Spring game, you know he can catch...and as a safety valve, he should be able to create problems because of his strength.

-Eric Williams number is not yet on the books...but after dinking and dunking, the safeties and corners might creep closer and closer to the line of scrimmage...that's when a home run hitter comes into play. Williams has big time speed (4.4) and might make his name getting past CBs as Elliott creates time.

Defense:

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-Mike Neal has had one of the quietest four years for a guy who's played a lot in recent memory. He's got a significant chip on his shoulder...something I think Hope will like and opponents won't.

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-Kawaan Short is young, but he's got big time size...and like his counterpart at DT, he plays with a mean streak. He and Neal might make Purdue a very tough team to run against in '09.

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-Jason Werner is a guy who every Purdue fan is familiar with...at least by name. But if you've seen him during a spring game, or had the chance to watch him play in high school, you know he's a gamer who's strong and athletic. Plus, he's an on-field coach. I'm betting on Werner staying healthy this season...and making big noise.

-Ishmael Aristide is another guy who is playing to prove something...Since I picked a Freshman on offense, I wanted to pick one on defense. Aristide, if his knee is healthy, can be a shut-down corner. He'll be coming in off of the bench for much of the season, and because of that, I think opposing QBs will try to test him...that'll be a mistake. He's got great closing speed and a knack for disrupting receiver's routes. Plus, he hits very hard for a sub-200 pounder.