The Changing B1G Basketball Landscape

If you're looking ahead to next season, it's prudent to start with the reigning champion of the conference...and with IU's recent defections, it makes even more sense to do so.

We all know IU will look different in 2013. I read someplace that they're the first program to ever lose four 1,000 point scorers in one off-season.  That'll leave a mark. So is it more amazing that four guys that reached the millennial mark are all gone in the same off-season, OR that a team that had four 1,000 point scorers (on one starting five) never got past the Sweet 16? You guys can discuss that  question amongst yourselves.

What we do know is that it's difficult to lose four starters...regardless of whom those starters are.  It's even tougher when a team loses its heart and soul; IU has lost both.

We had a ton of IU fans assure us that Zeller was going to stay because he needed to develop.  Bad news, friends: Crean's system wasn't helping him develop...in fact, it seemingly was making him worse.  It seems that we weren't the only ones who thought this.  Ex-IU player and coach, and current radio/TVpersonality, Dan Dakich encouraged Zeller to go pro as a way to help him develop.  Zeller wasn't used effectively and his bad habits weren't coached out of him.  As the season progressed, his shoulder got lower and lower when he drove...and officials were all but forced to call the charge on the 7 footer whose shoulder height would have made a running back jealous.

Zeller told the press that he had planned all along to go pro after his Sophomore year...but IU fans told us a different story.  We were told that his parents valued academics so much that he wouldn't leave until he had graduated...He has 35 credit hours remaining. Some told us that he just loved the school too much to leave.  It sounds like he really liked IU, but he loved his teammates, namely those leaving and graduating...so that made his decision easier.

A word of unsolicited advice to my IU friends and anyone else who wants to adamantly predict the actions of another person: It's not a good idea to try to guess what's in another person's head, especially an 18/19 year old kid.

Zeller wisely chose to leave...and in his decision's wake, IU fans were seriously asking, "Won't IU be better without him?" Many continued, "He was too soft." I mean, why wouldn't someone want to stay and play in front of fans like that??? Ammiright?

Zeller was a very good college basketball player...and now that he's no longer at IU, I hope he does OK on the next level; glad he's gone, wish him no ill will.  Afterall, he officially made an excellent decision yesterday.  All that said, I'd guess that three years ago, the average IU fan would have thought that if Zeller only went to the Sweet 16, his career would be judged as a bit of a failure...BUT, IU fans and media alike are spinning the defections to the NBA as nothing but a positive.  That's kind of fun to watch.

But, IU is just one of the programs in the B1G that will be ravaged by attrition this off-season.

Here is how the top of the conference will change next season:

IU
2013 starting five:
Zeller (So. C)*
Watford (Sr. F)
Oladipo (Jr. G)*
Hulls (Sr. G)
Ferrell (Fr. G)

2014 projected starters:
Vonleh (Fr. F)
Hollowell (So. F)
Sheehey (Sr. G/F)
Abell (Jr. G)
Ferrell (So. G)
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aOSU
2013 starting five:
Williams (So. C)
Thomas (Jr. F)*
Thompson (So. F)
Smith (Jr. G)
Craft (Jr. G)

2014 projected starters:

Williams (Jr. C)
Ross (Jr. F)
Thompson (Jr. F)
Smith (Sr. G)
Craft (Sr. G)
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MSU
2013 starting five:
Nix (Sr. F)
Payne (Jr. F)
Dawson (So. F)
Appling (Jr. G)
Harris (Fr. G)

2014 projected starters:

Payne (Sr. F)
Dawson (Jr. F)
Valentine (So. G)
Appling (Sr. G)
Harris (So. G)
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Wisconsin
2013 starting five:
Berggren (Sr. F/C)
Breusewitz (Sr. F)
Evans (Sr. F)
Brust (Jr. G)
Jackson (So. G)

2014 projected starters:
Dekker (So. F)
Kaminsky (Jr. F)
Gasser (Jr. G)
Brust (Jr. G)
Jackson (So. G)
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Michigan
2013 starting five:
Morgan (Jr. F)
Robinson (Fr. F)
Hardaway (Jr. G)
Sauskas (Fr. G)
Burke (So. G)*

2014 projected starters:
-McGary (So. C)
Morgan (Sr. F)
Robinson (So. F)
Stauskas (So. G)
Albrecht (So. G)

-McGary is still deciding if he'll stay or go to the NBA
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Other notes:
-Illinois graduates two guys who started for most of their careers in Paul and Richardson...and they lose an additional role player starter in McLaurin. In addition to these guys, three more guys have decided to transfer out of the program.
-Iowa returns four starters.
-Minnesota will hired Richard Pitino after reportedly being rejected by two or three coaches; will return three starters.  As of right now, Minnesota has an incoming class of zero.
-Northwestern hired Collins after Carmody continued NU's tradition of never making the NCAA tournament. They lose two starters, but Crawford will return from injury.  If I were a betting man, I'd put a quarter on Sobolewski being formed into an unlikable Hurley, Collins, Wojohowski type of player.
-Nebraska opens their new arena and looks to continue some of their improvement from the end of the season...loses two starters.
-Penn State loses only their sixth man...Chambers incoming class is one of the strongest for PSU since they entered the conference.  BUT PSU, during that same period has never had a player rated higher than 3-stars.
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The Forces of Good:
-Purdue's incoming Freshman class of Stephens (IL), Smotherman (IN) and Scott (IN) were all named to their all-state teams.
-Painter noted that he hopes everyone will return who is able to...of course, Purdue will lose Byrd and Anthrop to graduation.
-Rumors around Purdue transfers and defections are still just rumors...but the one that seems to have the most credence still, is Marcius. His locker has been cleaned out and he's been less involved in team activities, we've heard...Painter expressed that he wants him back, and told him so in his post-season interview.

But if he leaves, I guess I can't blame him. In spite of playing hard and being extremely productive down the stretch of the regular season, Hammons still started in the CBI.  Marcius might have taken that as a bit of a sign that his effort and productivity mattered less than Hammons potential, which is a shame.

If you follow us on Twitter, you might have seen AJohn's sentiment that he's looking forward to coming back and being a part of a team that gets much better in the off-season. BUT, his body language were indicative of a guy that struggled with consistency, focus and toughness at times. On top of that, he, along with Hale and Lawson, were rumored to be guys that didn't see eye-to-eye with Painter.

Keep in mind, all of those rumors are mere conjecture...But their lack of playing time during the last ten games of the season is something that was on display for all to see. We'll see what happens, I guess.
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BS' Early Prognostication

Here's the way I see the B1G shaking out in 2014 (as of right now):
1. aOSU
When was the last time you saw a Bucknut line-up with all Juniors and Seniors?? They'll be monsters.

2. MSU
Lots of returning talent...but MSU will be a much smaller team (top-to-bottom) than most Izzo squads.

3. Michigan
UM will have shooting, experience and good size...but even if McGary returns, they still lose a lot. Burke made everybody better and Hardaway did a lot of different things that helped the team.

4. Iowa
We all know Coach Fran is a pretty good coach.  Well, good coach plus a ton of veterans equals success.

5. Purdue
A few years ago, who would have thought a top-5 finish would be viewed as a success? In the wake of '13, in a tough conference, a top-5 season will probably mean Purdue will be ranked in the top-25...all while leaning heavily on Sophomores and Freshman.  A 21-23 win season should act as a stepping stone for a good one in '15. Painter really needs the team to get back to basics and needs them to win now.

6. Wisconsin
I never bet against Bo Ryan being in the mix for the B1G title...until now.

7. Indiana
Sheehey will go from annoying sixth man, to the guy that IU needs to be all-conference.  If he can make the leap, IU will be in the top third of the conference, if not, IU will struggle.  Also, Ferrell will need to play like UM's Burke for IU to be anywhere near where they were in '13.  All that said, IU will have a lot of talent on the roster, but their lack of leadership will hurt.

8. Illinois
Losing seven players in one season, regardless of how much they played, is a difficult pill to swallow for any program.  The Illini will need Bertrand, Abrams and Egwu to take big strides in the off-season in order for Illinois to make the tournament again in 2014. Illinois might get 20 wins next season...but how they get there will be much different than this season.  Don't look for Illinois to start out quickly next fall.

9. Minnesota
There will be growing pains for Goldy next year.  They'll still have some athletes that make jaw-dropping plays, but Minnesota fans might miss Tubby come March as Minnesota goes to the NIT.

10. Nebraska
Miles' team scratches and claws to more progress, but stays in the bottom-third of the tough B1G.

11. Northwestern
The Collins era begins in a fashion that's familiar to Northwestern fans.

12. Penn State
The cavernous Bryce Jordan Center stays mostly-empty for yet another winter as Penn State struggles to run with the thoroughbreds of the nation's best conference.
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More Guessing...

All Conference Team:
McGary UM
Payne MSU
Marble Iowa
Harris MSU
Craft aOSU

2nd Team:
Dekker Wisconson
Sheehey IU
Smith aOSU
T. Johnson Purdue
Appling MSU



*Denotes POY candidate in 2013

Some Question Answered as Boilers Roll In Opener: 48-6

You probably had some questions about our Boilers coming into today...and you might even have more now.

For instance, if you're new to the site, who's this "Tim" guy that posted?

Let me answer that one first.  Tim was one of the original writers on BS...now he writes about once/365 days or so. And while he used to be famous in some circles for his angry in-person long sports rants, his hits on BS are short and more geared towards those with shorter attention spans. So for those of you who are still reading, here's my post-game look.

I came into the game looking for info about the defense, the QB situation, seeking old issues to be eradicated and hoping for a rock-solid win with the game never in contention.

Well, we definitely saw a game that wasn't in doubt after the first few minutes...so that's good.  But it was far from flawless.

Starter.

QBs
-Caleb TerBush was suspended prior to the game for violating team rules. Our pals on Boilerradio.com scooped the situation about an hour prior to kickoff while I visited the show...and I still don't know the reason for the suspension.

My thoughts on this are pretty simple- I don't know what he did.  What I do know is that he's a captain and was the starting QB. Thinking about the team matters.  If I were Hope or Nord, which I'm obviously not, he'd not only not be the starter for the remainder of the season, but he'd be third string.

Marve had a few mistakes...no doubt about it.  But in the first three quarters he completed an eye-popping 82% of his passes, had 3 TDs and an Interception.  The interception was pretty damned ugly as he tried to force the ball in across the middle...in the first quarter, but after that, he showed just why we've always favored #9 as the QB for our Boilers.

He escaped pressure brilliantly, looked quick, kept his eyes downfield and went through his progressions.  He went down in the 2nd quarter in an eerily-similar way to the last time he tore his ACL...it scared the crowd and clearly scared him as he checked his knee right away.  But a play later, he threw a great pass while rolling right.  After watching the play though, I hoped we'd only see him for one possession in the second half.

But I didn't get my wish as he played into the fourth quarter...and atop that, he was still running with a 35 point lead.  That was the worst decision of the day by far from the coaching staff.  During the fourth quarter he also had a costly, ugly fumble in which it looked like he just tossed the ball in the air as he ran to the left.

The second awful decision by the coaches today was bringing in Henry in the second quarter and having him pass the ball.  Marve had found his rhythm and the offense seemed to be clicking...and Nord and Hope decided to break that by having Henry come in and throw the ball over the middle...Like Marve earlier, he delivered an ugly interception that was in slow motion as the entire crowd seemed to see the LB that Henry thought he could throw through.

Henry made up for it later in the game with a brilliant drive that ended in a score.

EKU gave Purdue's WRs space...so they dinked and dunked the Colonels all day.  I have no problem with short passes...as long as they aid the team in moving the ball efficiently...and Purdue did so- Marve and Henry went 37/47...pretty awesome.

Special Teams
JB Gibboney wasn't our favorite guy two seasons ago as his units looked consistently-inconsistent and were prone to make large, costly mistakes.  Last season, STs were pretty darned special as they won a few games for the Boilers.  Today, the crappy STs play returned with a vengeance.

A blocked punt, blocked point after, multiple kickoffs out of bounds and a muffed punt reception were putrid.  Sure, EKU made its mistakes as well, but Purdue's fumbles by Marve and Henry and its ST woes by nearly all units would have surely lost the game for Hope's squad versus a less-overmatched opponent.

Hunt and Mostert looked good in limited chances to return kickoffs...and Allen was the lone bright spot returning punts...and was rewarded by never getting another chance to do it again.  Much like the offense was coached, the punt returners were given similar treatment.  They kept rotating positions...if the coaches are working toward finding ONE punt returner, ONE kicker and ONE QB, then great- do this crap v. a lower division team...but I get the impression that this is Hope's dream scenario more than a proving ground.

Overall, I really liked what I saw from Allen, Hunt and Mostert on STs...in multiple facets.

Defense
Tibesar's debut as DC was pretty brilliant...but before we immaculate him as a defensive genius (a term which I generally hate in sports), let's remember this- EKU was without a few key parts- their all-conference center is gone, and one of the best QBs in the history of the program were both out for today...it showed.

The gifts that Purdue gave them led to ZERO points.  They'd inherit a fumble and move backwards.  They'd get an interception and their offense wouldn't move the ball forward.  Purdue crammed the box with five down lineman, showed an ameba look with no down lineman and hit EKU hard. That said, I believe they only sacked EKU's QB once...but they were in his face all day; and there weren't many blitzes or stunts...just overpowering bull rushes and a few delays.  I can only remember one super-aggressive blitz package in which Allen and one of the FSs blitzed.  It ended in EKU throwing the ball away.

The defense did what they should have done- controlled the line of scrimmage and tackled well.

Ricardo Allen ended the game early as he was "nicked" according to Hope.  He'll be back for UND, it sounds like.  But while he was playing he didn't really break on the ball at all and as EKU fluttered the ball time and again, he did nothing to take advantage of it.

Feichter was the most-noteworth DB today- he had an Int for a TD and was all over the field.  He hit hard broke on the ball well and did what a safety is supposed to do...something we really haven't seen since a healthy Albert Evans played two seasons ago.

Big Games
After Marve's uber-efficient game, one of his favorite targets, Gabe Holmes probably had the best game. He didn't have the most yards, but was dependable and looked like what we thought he'd be when he arrived on campus- a mother of a match-up.

Ross, Edison and Bush all had solid days. But both Ross and Bush dropped passes that hit them in the numbers...and Ross' lazy route running kills me to watch.  He also had a moment in which he wasn't paying attention in the hurry-up to end the first half in which Marve had to shout at him and clap to get him the signal.  He's got more potential than anyone (outside of Mostert) on the roster...but if he never decides to use it, he'll stay right where he is...which is a shame.

Shavers ran very hard (11 carries, 74 yards), initiated contact, blocked well and caught the ball extremely well out of the backfield. I was glad that Bolden didn't even need to think about coming on the field.  Cottom looked great as well...and Mostert in very limited touches had 72 all-purpose yards. Hunt and Mostert seem to be transposed in their responsibilities, to me.  Mostert's strength and ability to hit a hole fast make him an ideal RB...Hunt's ability to change direction and smaller frame seem to point him into a Dorien Bryant-type of role...but it looks like that's not going to happen.

New Guys
Anthrop carried the ball a few times late in the game...had a nifty pair of spin moves in one run. Dalapo Macarthy seems to have jumped Mikesky and Torwudzu on the depth chart as he saw significant action in the second half and had three catches.

Sean Robinson quietly played LB...didn't have to do too much.  But no longer looks anything like a QB; big neck and big arms.  Actually, Henry's gotten bigger as well and seems to look more like an RB than a QB to me.

Devlin Smith is a big dude- he seems to be every bit of 6'7" and 330 pounds...and looks like a very good run blocker.  Purdue backs ran through holes he created time and again.  His foot work will get better as he leans out...but I like what I saw from him.

Injuries
Ross and Allen both left the game a bit earlier than they might have.  Foy was injured a bit at one point too.  From what I hear none of them will miss next week's game.

Next up, Purdue travels to the god-forsaken land of South Bend to play UND...who looked as if they were playing a D-IAA team today; but they were playing a BCS school.  The question is- are they that good, or is Navy that bad? We'll find out soon.